So I've decided to take the plunge. Yes, after more than two years of membership and nearly five years of lurking, I've decided to go ahead with my first-ever attempt at a legitimate alternate history timeline. My reasoning for this is threefold - to expand my knowledge, to develop my writing skills, and to legitimize myself as an alt-historian. The objective here is no less than to lay out, as nearly as possible, a blow-by-blow account of a hypothetical Third World War. I have no idea if you'll like it, but I can say a few things with certainty. Responses and opinions are solicited, substantive responses will be responded to in turn, suggestions will receive all due consideration, and expert opinions and information will be greatly appreciated. Criticism of all types is desired. If this effort succeeds, it'll be due to you the reader telling me what I'm doing wrong and how to fix it. After all, this whole endeavor will be a learning experience for me. So, without further ado, here's the first installment.
______________________________________________
Why the War Began
Just as most modern historians perceive the Second World War to have had its genesis in the resolution of the First World War, so many of them perceive the Third World War to have sprung from the untenable position that resulted after the end of the Second World War. The Soviet Union and its communist puppet states in Eastern Europe found themselves at ideological loggerheads with the capitalist countries of Western Europe, backed by the world’s other superpower, the United States. However, communism was not merely a European ideology. In the aftermath of World War II it had spread throughout East Asia, as the Red Army won its civil war in China and the northern half of the Korean peninsula became a Communist state.
1949 was the seminal year in which the global fault line established itself. The formation of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon), the final victory of the communist forces in China, the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the detonation of the first Soviet atomic bomb split the world into two parts.
The next step was for the communist world to become a more cohesive, or at least cooperative, entity along the lines of the capitalist world, and a key event in achieving this came in January 1950. In January 1949 the Soviet Union and her European satellite states had formed Comecon, in hopes of rivaling the Marshall Plan in Western Europe and speeding on their recovery from the ravages of the World War II. However, Comecon was not, at least in theory, intended merely for Europe. In East Asia, both China and North Korea possessed communist governments and were attempting to rebuild their own economies. Starting in March 1949, at a meeting between Kim Il Sung and Josef Stalin, the subject of attempting economic integration of North Korea into Comecon was broached. In fall, after the official creation of the People’s Republic of China, the government of that country, not wishing to be the only Communist state not to seek entry into Comecon, began negotiating their own entry into the organizaion Finally, in January 1950, at a meeting between Josef Stalin and Kim Il Sung, the accession of China and North Korea to Comecon was agreed to in principle by the Soviet dictator. A few weeks later, the addition was agreed upon unanimously by the members of that body. With the Soviet Union now officially associated with its Asiatic communist counterparts, the Communist bloc had established links that would allow them to coordinate and hopefully attain greater interconnectedness in their mutual struggle.*
The next question, of course, is how the small matter of how increased ties between the communist countries led to an all-out war on two continents. In recent decades the “Great Man” theory of history has been discredited as too simplistic, but in surveying the origins of World War III this concept fits surprisingly well. Almost any Soviet leader besides Stalin may not have possessed the necessary qualities of aggression and paranoia that led to the decision to make war on NATO. At the April 1950 meeting, Kim Il Sung had informed Stalin that the North Koreans were planning an invasion of South Korea, to go forward in June. Stalin declared that he would lend diplomatic support to the North Koreans, and proposed later to take pressure off them by keeping NATO occupied in Europe. He pointed out the difficulty faced by Germany in the last war, and pointed out that both sides of an alliance would more readily achieve their objectives if they could force the capitalists to divide their efforts.
Stalin had not reached the decision to wage his own war without a great deal of consideration of his position. The Soviet Union was bordered on the west by NATO, whose very existence seemed oriented toward destroying communism. Western Europe was rebuilding and rearming at a far more rapid pace than Eastern Europe, and the United States remained in a postwar economic boom that had faced only a short downturn the previous year. The Soviets had just recently gained access to the atomic bomb, but the American military was producing hundreds of the weapons each year and it would be a long time until the Soviet Union could catch up. It seemed like there was no time like the present to move against NATO and weaken its position in Europe; to delay would leave the Soviet Union playing catch-up for the next decade.
To this end, the Soviet Union began planning for what would hopefully be a swift and decisive war. The Group of Soviet Forces in Germany retained massive strength from its World War II days, while the Western Allies had engaged in a military drawdown that left their conventional forces comparatively weak and retained an over-reliance on nuclear weapons to maintain a deterrent. The issue of the new military environment, including the threat posed by the atomic bomb, seemed resolvable in several different ways. First of all, the Soviet high command and many of their troops retained combat experience from the Eastern Front of World War II, both on the wide plains of Eastern Europe and from the latter days of the war in the more densely populated countries of Central Europe. This would enable them to conduct their offensives with a higher level of coordination, leading to a faster and more efficient victor. Second, Soviet fighter aircraft technology had advanced significantly – the MiG-15 was capable of catching any bomber the United States had in service at the time before it could drop its deadly nuclear payload. Lastly, the Soviets anticipated that their advance would get them close to NATO territory very rapidly, into a position where the United States would presumably be more reluctant to utilize its nuclear advantage.
As the agreement admitting North Korea and China into Comecon was signed, and the North Koreans planned for war, the Soviet Union began preparations for offensive action. Throughout April and May the already massive number of existing Soviet forces entered a new phase of maintenance, preparation, and supply buildup. Units on the border were put through exercises, so that any suspicious military activity could be excused as part of a springtime increase in the units’ training regimen. Much of the influx of supplies and troops was kept in Poland, where they were less exposed to prying Allied eyes, until just before the outbreak of hostilities. Indeed, the Soviet military buildup was so rapid that NATO was barely aware it was happening before the dam burst. On June 25, 1950, North Korean troops crossed the 38th parallel and entered South Korea, leading to immediate condemnation by much of the world. Two days later, the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany launched their own surprise attack.
The Third World War had begun, and initially the western world was caught off guard. North Korean forces rapidly overwhelmed the small South Korean military, taking Seoul on June 28 and continuing further south. By that point, however, efforts to alleviate the situation of South Korea had taken a backseat to the twin Soviet thrusts into western Germany. Soviet forces in East Germany had begun moving directly westward into the former British occupation zone, while those in Austria had begun moving up the Danube with the intention of pinning down American troops in Bavaria. As NATO forces scrambled to respond, the stage was set for the first major combat actions of the war.
_________________________________________________
*Edited to provide further explanation regarding the admission of the PRC and DPRK to Comecon.
______________________________________________
Why the War Began
Just as most modern historians perceive the Second World War to have had its genesis in the resolution of the First World War, so many of them perceive the Third World War to have sprung from the untenable position that resulted after the end of the Second World War. The Soviet Union and its communist puppet states in Eastern Europe found themselves at ideological loggerheads with the capitalist countries of Western Europe, backed by the world’s other superpower, the United States. However, communism was not merely a European ideology. In the aftermath of World War II it had spread throughout East Asia, as the Red Army won its civil war in China and the northern half of the Korean peninsula became a Communist state.
1949 was the seminal year in which the global fault line established itself. The formation of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon), the final victory of the communist forces in China, the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the detonation of the first Soviet atomic bomb split the world into two parts.
The next step was for the communist world to become a more cohesive, or at least cooperative, entity along the lines of the capitalist world, and a key event in achieving this came in January 1950. In January 1949 the Soviet Union and her European satellite states had formed Comecon, in hopes of rivaling the Marshall Plan in Western Europe and speeding on their recovery from the ravages of the World War II. However, Comecon was not, at least in theory, intended merely for Europe. In East Asia, both China and North Korea possessed communist governments and were attempting to rebuild their own economies. Starting in March 1949, at a meeting between Kim Il Sung and Josef Stalin, the subject of attempting economic integration of North Korea into Comecon was broached. In fall, after the official creation of the People’s Republic of China, the government of that country, not wishing to be the only Communist state not to seek entry into Comecon, began negotiating their own entry into the organizaion Finally, in January 1950, at a meeting between Josef Stalin and Kim Il Sung, the accession of China and North Korea to Comecon was agreed to in principle by the Soviet dictator. A few weeks later, the addition was agreed upon unanimously by the members of that body. With the Soviet Union now officially associated with its Asiatic communist counterparts, the Communist bloc had established links that would allow them to coordinate and hopefully attain greater interconnectedness in their mutual struggle.*
The next question, of course, is how the small matter of how increased ties between the communist countries led to an all-out war on two continents. In recent decades the “Great Man” theory of history has been discredited as too simplistic, but in surveying the origins of World War III this concept fits surprisingly well. Almost any Soviet leader besides Stalin may not have possessed the necessary qualities of aggression and paranoia that led to the decision to make war on NATO. At the April 1950 meeting, Kim Il Sung had informed Stalin that the North Koreans were planning an invasion of South Korea, to go forward in June. Stalin declared that he would lend diplomatic support to the North Koreans, and proposed later to take pressure off them by keeping NATO occupied in Europe. He pointed out the difficulty faced by Germany in the last war, and pointed out that both sides of an alliance would more readily achieve their objectives if they could force the capitalists to divide their efforts.
Stalin had not reached the decision to wage his own war without a great deal of consideration of his position. The Soviet Union was bordered on the west by NATO, whose very existence seemed oriented toward destroying communism. Western Europe was rebuilding and rearming at a far more rapid pace than Eastern Europe, and the United States remained in a postwar economic boom that had faced only a short downturn the previous year. The Soviets had just recently gained access to the atomic bomb, but the American military was producing hundreds of the weapons each year and it would be a long time until the Soviet Union could catch up. It seemed like there was no time like the present to move against NATO and weaken its position in Europe; to delay would leave the Soviet Union playing catch-up for the next decade.
To this end, the Soviet Union began planning for what would hopefully be a swift and decisive war. The Group of Soviet Forces in Germany retained massive strength from its World War II days, while the Western Allies had engaged in a military drawdown that left their conventional forces comparatively weak and retained an over-reliance on nuclear weapons to maintain a deterrent. The issue of the new military environment, including the threat posed by the atomic bomb, seemed resolvable in several different ways. First of all, the Soviet high command and many of their troops retained combat experience from the Eastern Front of World War II, both on the wide plains of Eastern Europe and from the latter days of the war in the more densely populated countries of Central Europe. This would enable them to conduct their offensives with a higher level of coordination, leading to a faster and more efficient victor. Second, Soviet fighter aircraft technology had advanced significantly – the MiG-15 was capable of catching any bomber the United States had in service at the time before it could drop its deadly nuclear payload. Lastly, the Soviets anticipated that their advance would get them close to NATO territory very rapidly, into a position where the United States would presumably be more reluctant to utilize its nuclear advantage.
As the agreement admitting North Korea and China into Comecon was signed, and the North Koreans planned for war, the Soviet Union began preparations for offensive action. Throughout April and May the already massive number of existing Soviet forces entered a new phase of maintenance, preparation, and supply buildup. Units on the border were put through exercises, so that any suspicious military activity could be excused as part of a springtime increase in the units’ training regimen. Much of the influx of supplies and troops was kept in Poland, where they were less exposed to prying Allied eyes, until just before the outbreak of hostilities. Indeed, the Soviet military buildup was so rapid that NATO was barely aware it was happening before the dam burst. On June 25, 1950, North Korean troops crossed the 38th parallel and entered South Korea, leading to immediate condemnation by much of the world. Two days later, the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany launched their own surprise attack.
The Third World War had begun, and initially the western world was caught off guard. North Korean forces rapidly overwhelmed the small South Korean military, taking Seoul on June 28 and continuing further south. By that point, however, efforts to alleviate the situation of South Korea had taken a backseat to the twin Soviet thrusts into western Germany. Soviet forces in East Germany had begun moving directly westward into the former British occupation zone, while those in Austria had begun moving up the Danube with the intention of pinning down American troops in Bavaria. As NATO forces scrambled to respond, the stage was set for the first major combat actions of the war.
_________________________________________________
*Edited to provide further explanation regarding the admission of the PRC and DPRK to Comecon.
Last edited:
