Fiori di maggio: the Kingdom of Italy after WWII

[lukedalton]

Depending on how messy this communist reaction gets...

Probably very much initially but will not last very long, no possible support from Moscow and right on the US/UK backyard plus i doubt that the Socialists will stick around with the PCI if the fight start (very complicated relationships).

Regarding any peace treaty well the priority will bei, in order of importance:

- Trieste and Istria (try to keep as much as possible)
- war reparations (try to keep them as low as possible)
- Colonies (try to keep some influence in them)

 

[LordKalvan]

And a fair number left after the Allied conquest.

But as you say, either way it's not that many; unlike Libya, it was never a settlement colony per se.

And many more left after Eritrea was handed over to Etiopia. By 1949 less than 20000 Italians remained in Eritrea.

Religious demographics in Eritrea are elusive, especially that far back, but Eritrea has generally been considered to be Christian majority in the modern era. Certainly it is today (depending on which survey you credit, substantially so).

And yes the north and coastal parts of the country are where the Muslims predominate, while the Christians are concentrated in the central highlands.

There was no "Eritrea" until the colonial administration was firstly formed in 1882, and after that the inland border moved quite a nit in particular during the first 10-15 years of the colony.
The Italian administrations always considered Muslim religion a majority in Eritrea and this was confirmed by census results (for what is worth: a colonial census with presence of nomadic populations is never cast in stone).

The legend of a christian majority in Eritrea was invented by Haile Selassie, aided and abetted by the British, as a justification for the annexation (= land grab) of Eritrea. I am not surprised if today there is a christian majority (after 50 years of Ethiopian domination and efforts to "pacify" Eritrea), but under Italian colonial administration the majority of the population was Muslim.

 

[DonFitzcarraldo]

After the death of Cardinal Maglione in 1944 Pius XII did not nominate a new secretary of state, but split the responsibilities of the office between monsignor Tardini (external affairs) and monsignor Montini (internal affairs = Italian affairs). Both Montini and Tardini had been close confidants of Pius XII for many years (and Montini will go on to become archbishop of Milan in 1953 and pope in 1963). Montini (born near Brescia in Lombardy) was not tied in any way to the old Roman aristocracy: his sympathies where rather with the Azione Cattolica (Catholic Action) and he took them from his father who was the director of a newspaper not casually named like the organization.

I believe that the lukewarm feelings of the papacy toward the dinasty come in a significant way from the role that Montini played in those years (and obviously from Alcide De Gasperi who did not believe the monarchy could stay after the disasters of the dictatorship and the lost war).

All true. However, noting that Cardinal Montini is still, well, Cardinal Montini as opposed to Paul VI, the Nobility still has quite a bit of clout which has yet to be uprooted by Pontificalis Domus. The major POD here, which drives a lot of what is going to happen, is an earlier and more profound fear of communism; internationally yes, but also in Italy specifically after much harsher fighting to bring down the RSI and greater Communist influence in the north. Whether Montini's reformism really pans out or whether there is a going to be a conservative backlash remains to be seen.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

I'm subscribing.

I have always been conflicted about 1946; despite my monarchist sympathies, I deeply dislike the House of Savoy. On the other hand, I have always thought that Umberto got a raw deal, a decent dynast* (a rarity in that House) who was done in by electoral irregularities and his father's refusal to abdicate in a timely manner (along with much else about dear old dad).

By the way, in our own timeline, I don't know that a monarchist victory would have been "shocking;" there seemed to be an expectation that the vote would be close. But I will wait to see what the background of your timeline looks like.

__

* Notwithstanding his promiscuous sexual life; arranged marriages are rarely easy to bear, and the pressure was off once he was dethroned.

Was there actually credible proof that he was a homosexual, as opposed to merely, well, today we'd describe it as metrosexual, and with no interest in his wife? Certainly we do know he was that rare beast, a devout Savoy dynast.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Was there actually credible proof that he was a homosexual, as opposed to merely, well, today we'd describe it as metrosexual, and with no interest in his wife? Certainly we do know he was that rare beast, a devout Savoy dynast.

Agreed, Umberto probably would've been a credit to his people had he been given a chance.

 

[RyuDrago]

About the fate of the colonies, more than Eritrea I see Somalia more favorable to remain an Italian possession, after all OTL Italy obtained trust territory administration from the UN until 1960. Libya is lost anyway but maybe Italy can obtain the recognition for its colonists to remain without harm (becoming a relevant minority), which could be useful later to have a claim to intervene if Gaddafi rise and he will start to expel Italian citizens.

Aside the PCI, the possible real enemy for monarchic Italy could be Tito... Surely he will attempt to raise the anti-Italianism in Yugoslavia to untolerable levels, in order to favour the national cohesion, starting with the issue of Trieste. Maybe TTL he didn't left the alliance with Stalin...

Umberto could have still various cards to his side to regain favour and influence. For first, De Gasperi and the DC are now forced to cooperate with the King and keep the actual status quo; second, surely Pius XII will support Umberto in full, and so the Americans, so the risks of a civil war will be as OTL frankly reduced, albeit I bet the (probable) attack on Togliatti in 1948 could create more destabilization with the party surely accusing the monarchists.

Plus, he could count about the popular support over Maria Josè, and after 1948 of Elena of Montenegro, which after the death of VEIII will probably return to Italy. The Italian Queens always had large popularity after all. However, a problem could present about the burying place of the former king. Probably Umberto will propose Superga as compromising place, but it could also be he will attempts to force the situation proposing the Pantheon as well; considering the monarchy survived, plus VEIII was still the one under his reign completed the Risorgimento (which it will be considered meritable enough respect to the decision to support Mussolini), he could be buried in Rome as well. Of course, the PCI will protest over that decision...

 

[lukedalton]

Aside the PCI, the possible real enemy for monarchic Italy could be Tito... Surely he will attempt to raise the anti-Italianism in Yugoslavia to untolerable levels, in order to favour the national cohesion, starting with the issue of Trieste. Maybe TTL he didn't left the alliance with Stalin...

Tito was too independent and uncontrollable for Stalin taste so a clash between them is probable as the fact that Bologna football team this years will go in B (sorry depressed football fan); but an higher tension on the east border is very much probable, expecially with a different peace treaty and frankly an external enemy is always good for keep people united (ehy is not that we don't have our scare at the border even in OTL)

Ironically, a more problematic relation with Yugoslavia and maybe a possible intervention on Libya mean that the military will be seen less than a joke ITTL

 

[Athelstane]

Was there actually credible proof that he was a homosexual, as opposed to merely, well, today we'd describe it as metrosexual, and with no interest in his wife? Certainly we do know he was that rare beast, a devout Savoy dynast.

Well...

I merely said "promiscuous," which was a reference to his mistresses. I don't know if I can really credit the allegations that he was homosexual. Either way, it is all of a much: some kind of extra marital liaisons were going on after he was dethroned.

 

[DonFitzcarraldo]

"And in the news today, Umberto II of Italy made a speech in Rome condemning recent bombings which coincide with the 47th anniversary of the assassination of his grandfather, Umberto I. Palmiro Togliatti, leader of the Italian Communist Party and current Mayor of Genoa after his resignation from Federal politics, denied the PCI's involvement but called for "a continuing struggle of socialist solidarity and unity in the face of oppression." It has been over a year since the referendum which kept the monarchy in place, and the Treaty of Peace with Italy is due to come into effect in just a few months. Violence has become commonplace in PCI-dominated northern Italy, however right-wing discontent at the loss of most of Italy's colonial territories has also spurred violence. Queen Marie José is expected to visit the victims of the bombings shortly. Back to Chad, with sports."

Although the domestic situation of the Kingdom of Italy was perpetually precarious in the aftermath of the referendum, the international situation was little better. Although Italy had a sort of ally in the United States, who, with the creation of a communist Yugoslavija, was hurting for strategic security in the Mediterranean; her fellow Allies had no such qualms. The terms of the Treaty of Peace with Italy were personally negotiated in Paris with the Prime Minister, and were generally a disappointment for the Kingdom. King Umberto was forced to abdicate the crowns of Albania and Ethiopia and both of those countries gained independence, while a general plan was agreed to for the eventual independence of Libya. The creation of the neutral, guaranteed Republic of Istria within the Istrian peninsula was wildly unpopular in Italy, however the Allies were unwilling to see Italy or communist Yugoslavija have full control over the vital and contested region, and hoped that their mutual disappointment would cool tensions.

In former Italian East Africa, the Kingdom was granted some leeway as both Italian Eritrea and Italian Somaliland were established as Italian-administered UN Trust Territories in a successor to the old League of Nations mandates. In response to vociferous protests from Ethiopia it was decided that the length of time for Italian administration in Eritrea would be limited to only five years before a mandatory referendum was to take place on the territory's status. Somaliland, however, laboured under no such restrictions. Popular sentiment in both territories tended to side with the Italians -especially in light of the considerably more tender policies enacted by the new government in Rome- and it was ultimately unknown whether they would, in the end, opt to remain under Italian administration.

Finally, the matter of the Italian Aegean was settled rather neatly; as all but the isle of Rhodes, which by that point had a not-inconsiderable Italian population- were returned to Greece. That they were returned to Greece rather than the Turkish Republic would cause much irritation in Istanbul and lead to greater tensions between Greece and Turkey in later years; however by then, of course, it was none of Italy's affair. The rights of ethnic Italian citizens remaining in Libya, Albania, Ethiopia etc. were all fully guaranteed by their host countries, but how well those guarantees would hold still remained to be seen. The settlement of Italian borders and loss of most of her empire merely contributed to dissent and discontent at home, both on the right and only the left, and it would take a skillful showman indeed to keep everyone in line for the play.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Tito was too independent and uncontrollable for Stalin taste so a clash between them is probable as the fact that Bologna football team this years will go in B (sorry depressed football fan); but an higher tension on the east border is very much probable, expecially with a different peace treaty and frankly an external enemy is always good for keep people united (ehy is not that we don't have our scare at the border even in OTL)

Ironically, a more problematic relation with Yugoslavia and maybe a possible intervention on Libya mean that the military will be seen less than a joke ITTL

There also runs the possibility of an internal threat, that is the potential foresight of a Civil War between the pro-Monarchist South and the pro-Republican North, one of which can be exploited by Yugoslavia to establish its own puppet government there. Then again, this is but a theory.

So this Istrian Republic, is it essentially an expanded Free Territory of Trieste?

 

[RyuDrago]

Well, it was indeed a very light peace. I'm surprised over the keeping of Rhodes, above all the other conditions.

Trieste was included or not in this Istrian Republic? If yes, despite the loss, it could run to the advantage of the Italians in the long term... Plus, considering for the moment Tito didn't control Istria, he couldn't have expelled the Italian coastal population, so the republic should be predominantly of Italian culture with Slovene and Croat minorities which could prefer to support a return with Italy later than joining Yugoslavia.

Neither I expected Togliatti to become Mayor of Genova TTL. I guess he ran for the office to better prepare a Communist resistance in the North... I'm more and more intrigued.

 

[Sejanus]

I'm loving how this is going, will be sure to keep following this.

 

[l-101]

About the fate of the colonies, more than Eritrea I see Somalia more favorable to remain an Italian possession, after all OTL Italy obtained trust territory administration from the UN until 1960. Libya is lost anyway but maybe Italy can obtain the recognition for its colonists to remain without harm (becoming a relevant minority), which could be useful later to have a claim to intervene if Gaddafi rise and he will start to expel Italian citizens.

Aside the PCI, the possible real enemy for monarchic Italy could be Tito... Surely he will attempt to raise the anti-Italianism in Yugoslavia to untolerable levels, in order to favour the national cohesion, starting with the issue of Trieste. Maybe TTL he didn't left the alliance with Stalin...

Umberto could have still various cards to his side to regain favour and influence. For first, De Gasperi and the DC are now forced to cooperate with the King and keep the actual status quo; second, surely Pius XII will support Umberto in full, and so the Americans, so the risks of a civil war will be as OTL frankly reduced, albeit I bet the (probable) attack on Togliatti in 1948 could create more destabilization with the party surely accusing the monarchists.

Plus, he could count about the popular support over Maria Josè, and after 1948 of Elena of Montenegro, which after the death of VEIII will probably return to Italy. The Italian Queens always had large popularity after all. However, a problem could present about the burying place of the former king. Probably Umberto will propose Superga as compromising place, but it could also be he will attempts to force the situation proposing the Pantheon as well; considering the monarchy survived, plus VEIII was still the one under his reign completed the Risorgimento (which it will be considered meritable enough respect to the decision to support Mussolini), he could be buried in Rome as well. Of course, the PCI will protest over that decision...

If the Republic, a new state, didn't keep its colonies, the Monarchy with a sense of continuity won't manage better. OTL there was an italian minority in Libia and an intervation wil l end worse than Algeria for the French and not tolerated from an ex-fascist country.

 

[RyuDrago]

If the Republic, a new state, didn't keep its colonies, the Monarchy with a sense of continuity won't manage better. OTL there was an italian minority in Libia and an intervation wil l end worse than Algeria for the French and not tolerated from an ex-fascist country.

I recognize the point. However Libya was surely less populated than Algeria and with a network of tribes in competition between them. Not saying the Italians could do better, but the Libyian geography and population levels surely favoured them - in the early 70's, when Gaddafi came to power, they were two million OTL. And TTL there will remain a relevant Italian minority as well, which if the ENI made a more successful oil campaign, it could more than increase. Also Eritrea and Somalia weren't quite populated in proportion of other former African colonies - which could only favour the Italian minority. In time of crisis, Libya, Eritrea and Somalia could be a more relevant pole of attraction than OTL to Italian immigrates respect to other traditional destinations - Germany, Australia, Argentina, and above all the same North of Italy.

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

If the Republic, a new state, didn't keep its colonies, the Monarchy with a sense of continuity won't manage better. OTL there was an italian minority in Libia and an intervation wil l end worse than Algeria for the French and not tolerated from an ex-fascist country.

And yet they managed to keep Rhodes in the end? They managed better than OTL.

 

[DonFitzcarraldo]

So this Istrian Republic, is it essentially an expanded Free Territory of Trieste?

Yes, in that it is the Istrian peninsula. With Trieste as the capital.

Well, it was indeed a very light peace. I'm surprised over the keeping of Rhodes, above all the other conditions.

Neither I expected Togliatti to become Mayor of Genova TTL. I guess he ran for the office to better prepare a Communist resistance in the North... I'm more and more intrigued.

I debated the keeping of Rhodes, but I never said that this wouldn't be a bit of an Italowank There are, of course, reparations; but I'm not really an economically-minded person so I left them out. As for Togliatti, Genoa was his hometown and the PCI is now pursuing a much more regionally-oriented policy in attempting to cement their support in the north. Mayor was a natural choice.

I'm loving how this is going, will be sure to keep following this.

Good to hear!

If the Republic, a new state, didn't keep its colonies, the Monarchy with a sense of continuity won't manage better. OTL there was an italian minority in Libia and an intervation wil l end worse than Algeria for the French and not tolerated from an ex-fascist country.

Intervention in Libya? No, never...

Honestly, I'm a little surprised that the little news snippet didn't attract more attention, especially with its allusion to continuing violence and the relatively unexceptional nature of a bombing...

 

[RyuDrago]

Honestly, I'm a little surprised that the little news snippet didn't attract more attention, especially with its allusion to continuing violence and the relatively unexceptional nature of a bombing...

As I said before, even with an increase of violence, considered more than comprensible, any Communist attempt to raise trouble will only end bad for them, even if the North attempts a full revolt or a secession, with lots of Americans still everywhere in half Europe. Stalin eventually could cover Tito to seize Istria in case of Italian disarray, but not going further in case of Italian civil war, not certainly while the USSR didn't had yet the A-Bomb and with a Truman and a Mac Arthur in full "roll back" policy.

And honestly, I guess it will more interesting to see a PCI politically struggling through the decades in a monarchic Italy (strongest Communist party of Western Europe, main opposition force in the peninsula, in political control of various regions and cities but not strong enough to win a general election).

 

[Razgriz 2K9]

Honestly, I'm a little surprised that the little news snippet didn't attract more attention, especially with its allusion to continuing violence and the relatively unexceptional nature of a bombing...

I've already made clear the probability of a continued monarchy spurring Civil War which may or may not involve the PCI. I've nothing more to say on that.

 

[RyuDrago]

I've already made clear the probability of a continued monarchy spurring Civil War which may or may not involve the PCI. I've nothing more to say on that.

Uhm... Neofascism reprise, them?

 

[lukedalton]

Yes, in that it is the Istrian peninsula. With Trieste as the capital.

Good for Trieste and in general for the italian minority in Istria but i doubt that will last, both side really want it and if Tito will want to mingle in the italian side of politics image what will do to Istria.

I debated the keeping of Rhodes, but I never said that this wouldn't be a bit of an Italowank There are, of course, reparations; but I'm not really an economically-minded person so I left them out. As for Togliatti, Genoa was his hometown and the PCI is now pursuing a much more regionally-oriented policy in attempting to cement their support in the north. Mayor was a natural choice.

Well if there is much more fear of communism probably the reparation has been a little reduced in the case of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia (not so much, probably a 10% top...basically around 23 million) is still a boon for Italy and both URSS and Yugoslavia will be really pissed.

Honestly, I'm a little surprised that the little news snippet didn't attract more attention, especially with its allusion to continuing violence and the relatively unexceptional nature of a bombing...

Honestly that time was a period of already low level civil war so a series of bombing after the victory of the monarchy is not so shocking