Fate of Protestantism in a world where England remains Catholic?

[Fabius Maximus]

IOTL, the global spread of Protestantism is largely due to the British Empire, either directly or indirectly through the United States. Although other Protestant countries did create overseas colonies (most notably the Dutch), their empires didn't generally involve as much settlement or missionary activity, limiting the spread of their religious beliefs.

So the question is: assuming that England remains Catholic, how does Protestantism fare over the next five hundred years or so? The core Protestant area would be in northern Germany and Scandinavia, surrounded by Catholic countries. Would this are prove cohesive enough to maintain its religious beliefs, or would influence/pressure from the surrounding Catholic world cause the Protestant states to readopt Catholicism at some point? Or, on the other end of the possibility spectrum, would emigration from this area cause Protestantism to spread across the world anyway?

 

[Lalli]

Protestantism would survive since it had lot of support on mainland Europe and many rulers too saw that as useful since it allowed to take properties of churches and monasteries. But without Anglophone world Protestantism probably won't spread greatly outside of Northern and Central Europe unless Dutch decide to be more active but even then they would have pretty limited affect since they never colonised as much as Brits.

 

[AkhenatenOrRamses]

England remaining Catholic all but restricts OTL Protestantism to various German states looking to stick it to the Habsburgs, Scandinavia, and any long term colonies they manage to set up in the New World. Protestant England and Scotland being the ultimate reason Protestantism is a major branch of Christianity in OTL today cannot be overstated given the US was founded by people largely hailing from the UK.

 

[Aichi72]

I also think that it would remain largely confined to Northern Germany and Scandinavia. In fact, if the high church branches are prominent, it may come to be seen in the west as some sort of northern version of Eastern Orthodoxy.

 

[Nuraghe]

IOTL, the global spread of Protestantism is largely due to the British Empire, either directly or indirectly through the United States. Although other Protestant countries did create overseas colonies (most notably the Dutch), their empires didn't generally involve as much settlement or missionary activity, limiting the spread of their religious beliefs.

So the question is: assuming that England remains Catholic, how does Protestantism fare over the next five hundred years or so? The core Protestant area would be in northern Germany and Scandinavia, surrounded by Catholic countries. Would this are prove cohesive enough to maintain its religious beliefs, or would influence/pressure from the surrounding Catholic world cause the Protestant states to readopt Catholicism at some point? Or, on the other end of the possibility spectrum, would emigration from this area cause Protestantism to spread across the world anyway?

I believe that if England remains Catholic, Protestantism will most likely remain confined to germanic Northern Europe ( the situation in the Netherlands however is much more complex, without the support of England, things become considerably more complicated for the rebels as compared to Otl ) which is also that region that historically had fewer important ties with Rome ( or had less ability to make its voice heard / influence the policy of the pontifical curia compared to the great powers ) furthermore it also allows breaking a further mechanism of imperial control that based on ecclesiastical support, aimed to exercise greater control over the principles of the HRE, I also believe that this reduced diffusion of Protestantism on the one hand is probably a good thing, because it would allow for greater cohesion compared to Otl ( where it was immediately divided into several opposing currents, which facilitated the internal struggles and subsequent fragmentation over the following centuries ) here in this scenario however it is highly possible that Lutheranism remains the main and uncontested current, also considering the important socio-economic ties between Scandinavia and Northern Germany ( which in OTL facilitated the spread of the new ideology ) even if obviously you want the natural pressure exerted by the Catholic powers on its borders, will see the region in which the Augsburg confession and its derivatives will have taken root slightly eroded ( they will probably be territories of the border, such as central Germany and the Rhine, which due to being places disputed between the two confessions, will see Catholicism win in the long run, but in any case it will remain the hard core of Saxony, Brandenburg, Meklenburg, possessions of the Welfs, and kingdoms Scandinavians with a clear Lutheran majority, which could in the long run solidify into 2/3 political entities )


@Kellan Sullivan, I Choose You ! 😜 ( yeah I'm feeling very Ash Ketchum right now 😅 )

 

[LibPrime]

Although the Protestant movement would definitely be weaker ITTL, I honestly don't think that England contributed much to the movement to begin with.
Also IMO the only way for Protestantism to be snuffed out is if Martin Luther supported the Peasant's Revolt. If that happened, every German noblemen and king alike would be against it as it would invalidate their right to rule.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

I believe that if England remains Catholic, Protestantism will most likely remain confined to germanic Northern Europe ( the situation in the Netherlands however is much more complex, without the support of England, things become considerably more complicated for the rebels as compared to Otl )

To be fair, a Catholic England might still support the rebels in order to weaken the Spanish, much as the French supported the Lutherans against Charles V.

I also believe that this reduced diffusion of Protestantism on the one hand is probably a good thing, because it would allow for greater cohesion compared to Otl ( where it was immediately divided into several opposing currents, which facilitated the internal struggles and subsequent fragmentation over the following centuries )

I think that might be a bit optimistic. Protestantism splintered pretty much from the beginning; even just in Germany you had Lutherans vs. Calvinists, and that's not getting into smaller groups like the Anabaptists.

 

[Torlek]

To what degree is England remaining Catholic here? Is it staying 100% Catholic like Spain or does Calvinism still gain a toehold due to trading with the Dutch? If the latter, Protestantism could still easily spread due to England exporting its Calvinists to the Americas like France did with the Hugenots. However, the English Civil War turns into a war of religion and kicks off earlier. If the former, Mary and Phillip's marriage probably goes over better and closer Anglo-Spanish cooperation puts France in a spot they're not going to like the next time they butt heads with the Habsburgs.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

This might be a long shot but what’s the possibility of traditionally Catholic countries either remaining a lot more Protestant than IOTL or straight up becoming Protestant majority nations over time (like France) due to political dynamics playing out differently with a Catholic England? I could see more French noblemen becoming Huguenots resulting in Henry IV never converting to Catholicism after becoming king and gradually converting the rest of the country. Might be an off the wall thought but you never know.

 

[Aluma]

This might be a long shot but what’s the possibility of traditionally Catholic countries either remaining a lot more Protestant than IOTL or straight up becoming Protestant majority nations over time (like France) due to political dynamics playing out differently with a Catholic England? I could see more French noblemen becoming Huguenots resulting in Henry IV never converting to Catholicism after becoming king and gradually converting the rest of the country. Might be an off the wall thought but you never know.

Honestly France converting to Protestantism just to spite England is very on brand

 

[Aluma]

Plus it also fits their OTL anticlericalism

 

[Polish Eagle]

Plus it also fits their OTL anticlericalism

Not just OTL anticlericalism, but the general tendency of the King of France to try and consolidate power in his own person. IOTL, this became the Catholic heresy-lite of Gallicanism. I could easily see France adopting some kind of Calvinist-sympathetic National Church ruled by the King.

Naturally, this would lead to/flavor conflicts with England, Spain, and Germany, and have knock-on effects in other countries (Poland might decisively enter the Hapsburg camp, without French princesses to ally with the Vasas).

Of course, France inherently has a few problems with exporting its belief system across the world that England does not. The need to constantly play the continental European chess game against the Hapsburgs in Germany and Italy will keep it distracted from the Americas and India in a way Britain wasn't always--and Catholic England might come to an accord with Spain and functionally lock France out of the New World entirely, and also help paralyze the Dutch at sea. Even if France goes Protestant, it'll have a harder time spreading that.

 

[Parma]

It is a bit an odd question I think, due to the diversity of Protestantism. The church of England is called Protestant but the liturgy is Chatholic. The English Puritans where defenitly orthodox Protestant, but a bit too orthodox in their believes for many Protestant, even the Calvinist....
Further more Engeland was only important in the Protestant "" cause"" due to the support of Elisabeth I to the rebels in the Low countries. The relegion wars of France and Holy Roman Empire were much more important

 

[Jürgen]

I think that an important factor is that a Catholic England will not be anything like OTL Protestant England. It’s unlikely to establish OTL settlement colonies in North America. A Catholic England is also likely to have war of religions like France, which will end in a Catholic victory and many Protestants fleeing abroad. Scotland will likely still go Protestant and the Scots languages will likely be language of the first “English” Bible, Scotland without a union will seek a closer relationship with Denmark and the Netherlands. The English state will have access to much fewer money without the nationalizing of Church land. With a Catholic victory in the English War of Religion the nobility and burghers will have been weaken versus the crown and we will likely see English absolutism. All in all we end up with a English state without OTL colonial empire, it may still have another one but it won’t look like OTL, a absolut England is likely to be much more active in the continental Europe, and English Prince may be candidates for dynastic struggles.

From a pure theological POV, England, Netherland and Hungary were important for Protestant diversity, and England was the only of those three countries which spread that diversity around the world. Without England Protestantism will be much more dominated by Lutheranism and Calvinism.

 

[Oda]

Although the Protestant movement would definitely be weaker ITTL, I honestly don't think that England contributed much to the movement to begin with.
Also IMO the only way for Protestantism to be snuffed out is if Martin Luther supported the Peasant's Revolt. If that happened, every German noblemen and king alike would be against it as it would invalidate their right to rule.

Pretty sure the Stuart kings did send Scottish mercs to help out in the 30 years war so ATL the Protestant probably suck more till Gustavus genocidal king came and “help”

 

[Prince Ire]

The only major Protestant colonial power in this scenario would be the Dutch--assuming a Catholic England doesn't butterfly the successful Dutch Revolt away--and they weren't big on either settler colonialism or missionary activity, although there were a few examples of the latter in parts of India and Indonesia. Overall, Protestantism will be much less influential globally without British and later American influence missionary activity. I expect it will be only a minor force outside Central Europe, the Low Countries, and Scandinavia.

Not just OTL anticlericalism, but the general tendency of the King of France to try and consolidate power in his own person. IOTL, this became the Catholic heresy-lite of Gallicanism. I could easily see France adopting some kind of Calvinist-sympathetic National Church ruled by the King.

Naturally, this would lead to/flavor conflicts with England, Spain, and Germany, and have knock-on effects in other countries (Poland might decisively enter the Hapsburg camp, without French princesses to ally with the Vasas).

Of course, France inherently has a few problems with exporting its belief system across the world that England does not. The need to constantly play the continental European chess game against the Hapsburgs in Germany and Italy will keep it distracted from the Americas and India in a way Britain wasn't always--and Catholic England might come to an accord with Spain and functionally lock France out of the New World entirely, and also help paralyze the Dutch at sea. Even if France goes Protestant, it'll have a harder time spreading that.

Spain had plans to place a Habsburg princess on the French throne during the wars of religion that were quashed by Henry of Navarre's willingness to convert to Catholicism for Paris and thus the Catholic league in France being willing to back him. If France tries to go Calvinist, the Catholic faction in France will remain a source of support for Habsburg intervention that could very well result in a Habsburg France.

 

[Nuraghe]

Plus it also fits their OTL anticlericalism

Honestly France converting to Protestantism just to spite England is very on brand

this is true, but French anti-clericalism became more present during the century of the Enlightenment (not before) furthermore in Otl the Huguenots were a small minority in the kingdom (about 1/20, they certainly belonged to the richest and most powerful class in the kingdom, the nobility and the bourgeoisie) but their opposition to the centralist policies of the sovereigns inevitably brought them into conflict with Paris, so I don't see them taking power compared to Otl, furthermore Paris was the European power (along with the Habsburgs) with the greatest interests in the papal curia ( especially if we consider that they were one of the few states to possess a conspicuous representation of cardinals ( second in number to the Italians alone ) and the right of veto in the conclave ( the Jus Excluisivae ), certainly the relationship between Rome and Paris was more like a see-saw, but only because on one side there was the Papacy trying to recover the power it had before the Western Schism, while on the other we find the French sovereigns who they want to dictate law in Rome again

 

[Fabius Maximus]

To what degree is England remaining Catholic here? Is it staying 100% Catholic like Spain or does Calvinism still gain a toehold due to trading with the Dutch? If the latter, Protestantism could still easily spread due to England exporting its Calvinists to the Americas like France did with the Hugenots. However, the English Civil War turns into a war of religion and kicks off earlier. If the former, Mary and Phillip's marriage probably goes over better and closer Anglo-Spanish cooperation puts France in a spot they're not going to like the next time they butt heads with the Habsburgs.

Let's say that English Protestants are like Recusant Catholics IOTL -- they exist, but they're very much in the minority, and don't have any real political power.

This might be a long shot but what’s the possibility of traditionally Catholic countries either remaining a lot more Protestant than IOTL or straight up becoming Protestant majority nations over time (like France) due to political dynamics playing out differently with a Catholic England? I could see more French noblemen becoming Huguenots resulting in Henry IV never converting to Catholicism after becoming king and gradually converting the rest of the country. Might be an off the wall thought but you never know.

As it happens, we had a thread on that topic a while ago.

Ot is a bit odd question I think due to the diversity of Protestantism. The church of England is called Protestant but the liturgy is Chatholic. The English Puritans where defenitly orthodox Protestant.

A lot of the "Catholic" elements of Anglican liturgy got (re-)added in the 19th and 20th centuries as a result of the Oxford Movement. Before that, Anlican services would have been much more obviously distinct from Catholic ones.

A Catholic England is also likely to have war of religions like France, which will end in a Catholic victory and many Protestants fleeing abroad.

I don't know about that -- plenty of states had religious civil wars in this period, but plenty didn't, so I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that England will, or that an English War of Religion will necessarily end with the Crown being strengthened (lots of civil wars have had the opposite effect, after all).

Scotland will likely still go Protestant and the Scots languages will likely be language of the first “English” Bible, Scotland without a union will seek a closer relationship with Denmark and the Netherlands.

IOTL the Scottish Protestants had help from Elizabeth's regime down south. ITTL I'd expect England to either support the Catholics or at least remain neutral, so it's quite likely Scotland will remain Catholic as well.

The English state will have access to much fewer money without the nationalizing of Church land.

Henry VIII ended up selling off most of the seized land to fund yet another harebrained scheme to conquer attempt to assert his entirely legitimate rights in France. Without this money, Henry might have to forego an invasion or two, but the long-term financial stability of the Crown won't be affected as much as one might think.

 

[Analytical Engine]

I think that an important factor is that a Catholic England will not be anything like OTL Protestant England. It’s unlikely to establish OTL settlement colonies in North America.

I don't see how one follows from the other. People are still going to have the same desires for wealth and land.

 

[AkhenatenOrRamses]

Honestly France converting to Protestantism just to spite England is very on brand

Or the Irish for that matter