What if no figure unites the Jurchen tribes and invades China? What happens to the Jurchen and Mongols later on? Do they get absorbed into the Russian empire, China, Korea, or even Japan? Can they manage to form their own nation-state, and if they do, what effects would that have on regional politics?
Fate of Manchuria Without Nurhaci?
- Thread starter Tripledot
- Start date
Ooo a question on Jurchen
I would think that the Jurchen people would unite eventually forming their own nation. Any new Chinese dynasty will no doubt keep the same tribute system in place so they should have enough time for a member of the Aisin Goryeo or another powerful clan to unite them all and begin building a functional Manchu nation state
I would think that the Jurchen people would unite eventually forming their own nation. Any new Chinese dynasty will no doubt keep the same tribute system in place so they should have enough time for a member of the Aisin Goryeo or another powerful clan to unite them all and begin building a functional Manchu nation state
Nurachi was ruler of Jianzhou, zhou meaning province. Jianzhou was in fact a relatively autonomous province of the Ming dynasty. Without Nurachi and his desire for revenge against the Ming, Manchuria (or at least Jianzhou) would remain under the influence, if not rule of the Ming. Of course, when the fall of the Ming comes, Manchuria would probably go independant, but it would most likely only be scattered tribes.
If there's no second rise of the Jurchens,then the Ming Dynasty might actually survive.It should be noted that without the Jurchens,Ming forces that were sent to fight them probably would be sent to suppress the peasant rebels instead.There were multiple instances where Li Zicheng and co. would have been slaughtered if not for diversion of government forces to the northern front instead.
I thought they were only really an independent tributary to the Ming? It's what allowed Nurhaci to solidify his control over Manchuria.
I would think they would eventually solidify under a Nurhaci analogue in time it seemed destined to happen.
That's Jiangzhou
The Jurchen were brought under Ming influence by the Yongle Emperor. However, Jianzhou was only a province in theory and was not under direct Ming control, but merely under Ming influence, allowing figures like Nurachi to appear when they did. And the stronger the Hans down south are, the more control they have over Manchuria. That's why when looking at maps of the period, you see very confused cartographers wondering wether to include Manchuria as part of the Ming.
Wether the Manchus were destined to reunify is...debatable.
The Ming can last longer, but they will fall eventually. When they do, the Russian Empire is likely the most stable and strongest power able to assert control over the Manchus and Mongols. Manchuria becomes a part of Russia with large local minority populations and with lots of Chinese resident in Chinatowns, mining camps or agricultural estates.
Not necessarily, but they could settle in substantial numbers and out-organize them and influence thme culturally to the point that Manchuria is as Russian as Tatarstan, Bashkiria, Kalmykia, Buriat Mongol and Yakutsk.
Probaly get absorbed by Russia; without the Qing uniting them with China, it's very likely that they'd meet the fate of similar Khanates and Siberian Tribes and simply fall victim to Russian Imperialism. They could unite and maybe remain independent like Mongolia, but it would likely have the relevance of Modern Mongolia and even then its hard to see them not get eaten by Russia and if not Russia then by Japan. If they retain their identity until the Communist Era, they could become a consitutant part of the USSR(Thus technicly remaining independent) and then declare independence like other Communist Republics. The Ming would still exist, or perhaps the shortly lived Shun Dynasty would have taken over. It could be good for China, as Li Zechang might tend to establish a reformist China thanks to his roots, political stances and Non-Han Ethnicity(Yet still Chinese, unlike the Manchurians). And since the Qing conquests would never happen the Uyghurs might be independent or part of Russia whereas Tibet would likely be independent aswell. Perhaps Manchurian Russia could lead to a much longer and more bloody Russo-Japanese War? Really, the potential is endless but I feel like the lack of Qing would, atleast in the Modern Era, weaken China overall due to the fact it would be restrained to China proper although they may fair better during the age of European Imperialism where Qing suffered through numerous conflicts.
Best chance for a whole Manchuria: They get conquered wholesale by the Russians, outer manchuria and all. They declare independence during the Russian Civil War before a communist coup takes power. They then join the USSR and gain independence during the fall of the Soviet Union whilst still having Outer Manchuria.
Best chance for a whole Manchuria: They get conquered wholesale by the Russians, outer manchuria and all. They declare independence during the Russian Civil War before a communist coup takes power. They then join the USSR and gain independence during the fall of the Soviet Union whilst still having Outer Manchuria.
Last edited:
I don't think we can predict anything past the fall of the Ming. Some dynasties are strong, some dynasties are weak, and a non Qing dynasty doesn't essentially mean China not being able to conquer it's peripheral reigons. You are also ignoring the butterfly effect with the whole coummnism thing.
They never conquered Tibet except for the Qing and they didn't control Uyghurs were only conquered during the Han if I'm correct.
I mean, you could have China conquer it's neighbors as Qing did. Its just not likely since the Qing was the main dynasty to do so. My personal favorite is Li Zechang takes control, institutes much needed land reform and thus allows a decent middle class of wealthy farmers to form and his successors carry on this spirit of reform, thus allowing China to better prepare against things like the Opium Wars.
The Han, Tang and Yuan dynasties all conquered Xinjiang before the Qing, there is no reason to think that a post Ming dynasty could not. The Qing did not conquer Tibet, they absorbed Tibet while promising the Lamas autonomy. Anyways, we are not here to debate the territorial size of a post Ming dynasty, so let's get back on track.
Ming cannot into Tibet
Well technicly then the absence of the Qing would, even if it were by the slightest bit, change everything from there on out. Ofcourse it's hypothetical.
But anyway to get back on track well. . to wrap it up the most likely fate in my opinion for the Manchus is that they end up getting dominated by another power. Not the funnest or most interesting outcome, but Russia is a scary thing to go up against.