Fate of a defeated Russia and France in a shortened WWI without the UK

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The scenario is thus: Germany decides that its tiny tiny border with France is more than enough to hold off the French army while they deal with Russia. Things go sideways in Russia with the greater part of the Heer on Russian soil coordinating with the Austrians and Turks. Nicky surrenders when Minsk falls and the Heer gets within shelling distance of St. Petersburg.

Then the Heer and the Austrians collectively pivot towards France. No invasion of Belgium means the UK had dawdled and dawdled on intervening until the Home Rule bill caused general rebellion in Ulster, and after that the UK was distracted by the charlie-foxtrot in Ireland, leaving France to face the Central Powers alone. A general strike coordinated by SIFO over the risk of dying for "the Tsar's war" and the unpopularity of the stalemate in Alsace-Lorraine drains support for the war and France sues for peace in early 1917.

What happens next?

How much does Germany carve out of Russia? Is it similar to Brest-Litovsk, or does Germany not want to risk occupying such a vast area while the French may still want to fight it out? What concessions can they get out of France? Can they grab any colonies during this time, or will the French be the ones grabbing the colonies? Will Germany then fight until they hold enough French territory to coerce the return of any colonies the French may have grabbed?

What does the domestic situation at home look like for France and Russia? Russia was just humiliated, and so far as the French left is concerned the government just threw away hundreds of thousands of lives to save the Tsar's bacon, and then failed to accomplish even that. Is there a risk of a communist or ocialist rebellion, something like the Biennio Rosso?
 

Xbadger

I think France would need to lose Paris or have a breakdown of military order in order for them to surrender

At the very beginning of the war Germany claimed to be only interested in a defensive war and didn't want to take territory, but shortly after that came off. In my opinion what you would have seen in is something kind of like the September program in which France would be forced to enter into a customs union that would have undercut French Farmers and put Germany in the driver's seat. Even though France and Belgium weren't in the war in this scenario, I don't see how they could have been kept out of this theoretical customs union. I mean Germany was just producing so much. More of Polish speaking areas would have been taken from RUssia. It also wouldn't surprise me at all if Germany ended up with some French colonies (particularly in SE Asia would be my guess). The Naval League really wanted it and although it really wasn't in their interest to get them I definitely could see them pushing for them.

Only a partial answer I know, but that'd be my best guess
 
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Xbadger said:
I think France would need to lose Paris or have a breakdown of military order in order for them to surrender

At the very beginning of the war Germany claimed to be only interested in a defensive war and didn't want to take territory, but shortly after that came off. In my opinion what you would have seen in is something kind of like the September program in which France would be forced to enter into a customs union that would have undercut French Farmers and put Germany in the driver's seat. Even though France and Belgium weren't in the war in this scenario, I don't see how they could have been kept out. More of Polish speaking areas would have been taken from RUssia. It also wouldn't surprise me at all if Germany ended up with some French colonies (particularly in SE Asia would be my guess)

Only a partial answer I know, but that'd be my best guess
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Is suing for peace the same as surrendering? Could the French wrangle a status-quo ante out of this situation? Maybe distract anyone in Germany who wants to defeat France with the shiny new puppet states in the east? Meanwhile as far as the French voting public is concerned they're sending men to die to pull the Tsar's chestnuts out of the fire. If Germany wages a defensive war the "we're defending France form invasion" angle isn't workable.
 

Xbadger

That is really a very fair point. I just kinda think revanchism was just so darned strong in pre-war France that people would have been more upset if France didn't advance into Alsace. I mean those ultra-nationalist were nuts. Many of them thought that France was being actively invaded since 1871. Maybe I'm just overestimating the momentum and taking our timeline for granted ::shrug::
 

FillyofDelphi

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Xbadger said:
That is really a very fair point. I just kinda think revanchism was just so darned strong in pre-war France that people would have been more upset if France didn't advance into Alsace. I mean those ultra-nationalist were nuts. Many of them thought that France was being actively invaded since 1871. Maybe I'm just overestimating the momentum and taking our timeline for granted ::shrug::
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The Hard Right in France had been scuttled in terms of political influence by 1914. There was some revachist sentiment, yes, but you're not going to see the civil government collapse because of it, as in France (unlike in the other continental powers) the army was actually a structure pretty well apart from the Senate and Assembly. The hard right elements in the army had also taken a solid knock after Dreyfus.
 

AussieHawker

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I don't see Germany getting much from France. They don't seem to occupy any major part of French territory from the description. France taking major losses on the offensive against Germany would also cut against Germany when they make their offensives along a narrow frontier. France likely has occupied most of Germany's colonies so they can trade them back for a status quo peace mostly. Maybe they hand over some minor colonial territories.

Brest Litovsk only got harsher because of the Bolsheviks messing around with the peace negotiations and Russia was falling apart. Maybe it gets limited to Poland, parts of the Baltic and the Turks getting something. A buffer, not carving out most of their western territories.
 
anotherlurker

anotherlurker

Frankly i dont see why the Russians would fight this long with the French in the West sitting on their butts (from the Russian perspective). It would look like Germany and France had come to a quiet agreement to hammer Russia with the war as an excuse and Russia would be looking for a dignified exit asap. That gets Germany maybe Poland and some minor border corrections, all in all more of a poisoned pill than a true gain.
 
Queeney

Queeney

In such a scenario, considering that German troops are not controlling large (or even any) parts of France proper, the most likely outcome for France would be a Peace with Honour, and basically a return to the status quo ante without any transfers of territory or reparation payments.

Russia on the other hand might get an even worse treatment than IOTL, and with France out of the war and the conflict effectively over, Germany would have the power to enforce any treaty terms they conclude.
 

FillyofDelphi

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Thomas1195 said:
This I am not sure. They certainly played a part in booting Victor Constant Michel from Chief of Staff position for adopting a supposedly defensive strategy.
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I said they'd taken a knock, not been taken out entirely. I should phrase that better, my apologies. However, I think it's fair to say reactionary influence was on the downswing in France, and while yes the army had more of it than most there was a real disconect between the cliques and the civil goverment
 

Raferty

I wonder if with no British entry if the HSF tries to engage the French fleet or tries any kind of blockading action.

Also, does Italy just sit this out or do they stay with the CP and try to grab French Savoy?
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
It took until 1916 for the Germans to take Warsaw. There are some massive Russian fortresses around in Poland. Plus, the operation to take Estonia in 1918 required massive naval commitment.

I mention these because I don't really see Germany going on a gallop towards Saint Petersburg, even if the Russians collapse. Their 1914 ambitions would be to establish a vassal Poland at the most. If they somehow got Lithuania and the other Baltics out of it they would be jubilant.

Why does this matter? Well, because I can't see the German commanders countenancing a deeper advance. If the aim is to win the war as soon as possible, they are going to establish a defensive position at some point them pivot their forces.
 

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Grey Wolf said:
It took until 1916 for the Germans to take Warsaw. There are some massive Russian fortresses around in Poland. Plus, the operation to take Estonia in 1918 required massive naval commitment.

I mention these because I don't really see Germany going on a gallop towards Saint Petersburg, even if the Russians collapse. Their 1914 ambitions would be to establish a vassal Poland at the most. If they somehow got Lithuania and the other Baltics out of it they would be jubilant.

Why does this matter? Well, because I can't see the German commanders countenancing a deeper advance. If the aim is to win the war as soon as possible, they are going to establish a defensive position at some point them pivot their forces.
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Might there be some talk in the General Staff about trying to grab as much as possible out of fear that if the Russians industrialize at near-full strength then in a rematch Germany would lose?

With a fairly significant territorial loss might Russia see any unrest at least comparable to the unrest following the Russo-Japanese War? Considering that he lost two wars in a single decade, humiliating Russia both times, would Tsar Nicholas abdicate in favor of a regency for Alexei, perhaps?
 
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