Eyes Turned Skywards

Archibald

Banned
Well, we have to wait a bit longer for Falcon, but Cygnus has just successfully separated in orbit from its Antares launcher. Of possible interest to readers of this TL, the Cygnus vehicle is named G. David Low after the former astronaut and son of George M. Low, who is of course intimately tied to the main PoD for Eyes.

Wow, this is amazing.
I've been fascinated with George Low for a long time, and was stunned years ago to learn that his son had been killed by cancer, just like his father a quarter of century earlier.
George Low himself is the perfect illustration of Churchill infamous sentence - a riddle wrapped in mystery inside an enigma. He never spoked of himself, there's so little detail on his life - he was the exact opposite of a von Braun. Yet his role in the lunar program went far beyond that of von Braun.

In fact he was a jewish and fled Austria in 1938 as a teenager with his parents.
Yet even forty years later no-one can say for sure if Low ever resented von Braun from being a former nazi, or if he just followed NASA official doctrine.
"Nazi or jew, this is the past, today we are working together to send a man on the Moon. End of the line."

There are plenty of interesting things in George Low life, but the details are extremely scarce and scattered.

But I did not realised the connection with Orbital Sciences until reading Nixonshead post.
 
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Over at The Space Review, I'm intrigued to see Dwayne Day toying with the counterfactual of what might have happened had NASA continued on with Skykab 2 and Apollo/Saturn hardware rather than opt for the Shuttle - in other words, basically, the starting point for Eyes Turned Skywards:

In the space program we are forever playing games of what-if. What if Sputnik had not happened? What if Yuri Gagarin had not been the first man in space? What if the astronauts on Apollo 13 had died? The hypotheticals are in some ways parlor games, but can also be useful for challenging our assumptions about how, or even if, events are linked.

A few years ago, a former NASA administrator suggested that scrapping the Apollo hardware and choosing to develop the shuttle had been a mistake. The Saturn V and the Apollo spacecraft were developed and paid for, and the United States abandoned them in favor of a costly new development project and different space goals. Certainly one implication is that if the United States had kept the Apollo hardware, it could have continued lunar missions. But another option would have been conducting further research in low Earth orbit like NASA did with Skylab, perhaps extending flight times and learning lessons about human adaptation to weightlessness that NASA did not discover until only recently.

I assume that the "former NASA administrator" he's speaking of is Mike Griffin.

It ends up being mostly a travelogue of the various museums now housing all the unused Skylab and Skylab 2 hardware. But worth a read.
 

Archibald

Banned
Dwayne A. Day is a curious guy by himself.

He is a NASA historian along Logsdon and Launius (Launius himself now has a blog, by the way) , yet he can't help himself fraying with us anonymous internet space cadets - :D and that includes counterfactual (he regurlarly posts at a host of space forums, including secret projects and nasaspaceflight.com)

I think he would really appreciate a good alt space history (like this one) but at the same time, alt history is also considered a "non serious hobby" and that might damage his reputation :p

So that were things stand today...
 
That he is.

And this leaves me asking a question. How long is it expected to take before Congress gets onto the idea of using Private Companies to resupply Freedom ITTL? I'd suspect that the idea is floating around in at least some pockets. Then again, with the NASA Apollo/Aardvark combo, along with the ESA Minotaur, the need for it is somewhat lessened IMHO.

Seems to me like it could go either way.

An interesting question. Seems to me that commercial cargo got a big kick in the pants from the impending retirement of Shuttle IOTL. Without the threat of imminent loss of US upmass capability ITTL it would be a lot harder to persuade the conservative "commercial companies can't possibly do as good a job as the government" crowd to give something like COTS a try. Still, I suspect someone's going to start looking at ALS' and others' price-per-kilo as compared to Saturn Multibody and do the maths.
 
An interesting question. Seems to me that commercial cargo got a big kick in the pants from the impending retirement of Shuttle IOTL. Without the threat of imminent loss of US upmass capability ITTL it would be a lot harder to persuade the conservative "commercial companies can't possibly do as good a job as the government" crowd to give something like COTS a try. Still, I suspect someone's going to start looking at ALS' and others' price-per-kilo as compared to Saturn Multibody and do the maths.

I agree.

We have COTS now because, well, we were desperate enough to try it.

In a world where NASA has the ability to send up 5-6 Saturn M02's with Apollo CSM's and AARDV's per year, it's hard to see any need for a commercial resupply market.

The commercial market in this timeline will go for the low-hanging fruit - satellite launches. Later perhaps, someone will try a Bigelow type operation. But they won't likely get COTS-type seed money for research.

An interesting question will be what happens when Freedom reaches the end of its projected lifespan. Some commercial outfit might consider taking it over.
 
Part III, Post 4: Grumman Aerospace and the X-40 "Starcat" program
So, this week we're returning to something mentioned in Part II, but which as you'll see made its biggest impact in the decade covered by Part III. This post was a lot of fun to write, including the assistance of our very own Polish Eagle, who I'd like to thank for his advice on Grumman and Long Island history and activities. And thus, without further ado, let us consider these ancient words:

"What goes up must come down."
"Once rockets are up, who cares where they come down? That's not my department says Werner Von Braun."


Meditate upon this wisdom we will.

Eyes Turned Skyward, Part III: Post #4

The end of Apollo had resulted in abrupt changes for almost every NASA supplier, major and minor. Only a few, like Rockwell (manufacturer of the Command and Service Module), were able to weather it without serious changes. Some, like Boeing and McDonnell, managed to spin their losses of large Saturn V contracts into other contracts like Saturn IC’s first and second stages, remaining critical parts of the post-Apollo programs. However, others suffered from harder times. The best example, representative of the hundreds of smaller contractors, was Grumman Aerospace Corporation. Smaller than most of the contractors who had vied for a piece of Apollo, the company had nonetheless managed through hard work to seize the lunar module contract and then worked to make that vehicle one of the most reliable and successful of the program. With the beginning of the station program, though, the funding squeeze NASA was passing through made continued lunar surface operations, let alone the development of any of the many proposed expanded operations variants, financially impossible, leading to the quick termination of Grumman’s Lunar Module contract. Moreover, Grumman had hoped to perhaps leverage its aerospace experience into bidding on the NASA Space Shuttle program. When that program, too, fell to the budget axe during the refocus on stations, Grumman was left completely adrift. Even the company’s successful history of naval fighters was up in the air, as ongoing issues with the company’s F-14 Tomcat were straining its relationship with the Department of Defense.

The Hubble Space Telescope provided one of the only outlets for the company’s successes in the 70s, with its 1979 selection as lead contractor for the spacecraft portion of the vehicle (a joint venture of Kodak Eastman and Itek would provide the optical train, including the main mirror). Grumman had long had experience with the OAO series of solar observatories and limited involvement with the Skylab Apollo Telescope Mount, which it had leaned on heavily in a “bet the company” move to save its space division. Luckily, the gamble paid off, and though the program was not without problems (Grumman could not escape its history of rather chaotic program startups, nor the overhanging threat of budget cuts that loomed over all of NASA for the early 1980s), Grumman’s space division had managed to weather the 1980s, and the flawless start to Hubble operations reflected well on the company in spite of a series of development problems. Moreover (at long last), the F-14s problems had largely settled down, and the fighter’s performance had finally started to ease some of the tensions on Grumman’s relationship with the Department of Defense. The benefit of this was that Grumman was able to reach out for another high-profile program, something of a return to form.

Under the auspices of Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative Organization, the Department of Defense was calling for the development of the necessary cheap spacelift capability through the development of two prototype spacecraft. One, the X-30, was to be a “spaceplane” of the classic mold, featuring advanced scramjet engines to carry it to altitudes and speeds high and fast enough to nearly put it in orbit. The other, the X-40, was a vertical-takeoff-and-landing vehicle testing a simpler reusable vehicle along the lines of existing stages. The X-30 received a larger focus by most contractors, as it promised a large contract with extensive development. However, Grumman, with its legacy of vertical rocket landings on Apollo and a leaner, hungrier eye, cannily put its focus on the less attractive prize, reasoning that it would have a better chance with a maximum-effort proposal for the X-40 than with the X-30. This approach paid off, and Grumman was selected to design, build, and operate the X-40 in coordination with SDIO and the Air Force. While the new experience of working with hydrogen and cryogenic fuels took the usual Grumman learning curve, the headaches were overshadowed by the much larger hassles that the X-30 developers were encountering during the extensive basic research needed to even begin detailed design. After design work on the X-40 concluded in 1987, the construction and associated initial qualifications began. While the main engineering would happen at Grumman’s Bethpage, Long Island headquarters as well as subsystem assembly such as avionics, fuel systems, and shrouds, the final assembly and some of the larger titanium work would take place at the Calverton plant established for Tomcat production. In line with conventional flight test protocol, the program was to involve the construction of two complete airframes and a complete set of flight spares. In 1990, fresh off yet another review of the lack of significant progress with the X-30’s advanced engines and headaches with finding suitable thermal protection systems, SDIO officials arrived for the Customer Acceptance Readiness Review on the first spaceframe of what Grumman had internally nicknamed the “Starcat.” As with most such handovers, the list of open faults was extensive, but many were largely perfunctory, and by the end of nearly two full days of reviews, all had been accepted or closed. Finally, the first of the two X-40 “Starcat”s was carefully wrapped up in plastic and loaded onto one of the same Super Guppies that had once carried Lunar Modules for its journey to White Sands Missile Range, leaving its twin to take over its place on the final assembly stands.

Under the New Mexico sun, support hardware had already been prepared, and once Starcat Alpha arrived, work began to check out the fueling and support equipment. Since one of the intentions of the X-40 program was to test simplification of launch operations, the site was fairly primitive, with a single hangar/checkout building, a control trailer, and two basic concrete launch/landing pads for the vehicle separated by 500 meters for planned testing of horizontal translation in-flight. To eliminate the need for a launch mount, the X-40 would take off from its own retractable landing gear, and was intended to be serviced on the pad with a simple scissor lift or cherry-picker crane truck, as opposed to a dedicated service tower. April 1990 saw the first static test firing of the X-40s engines, with the four clustered RL-10 engines at low-throttle settings insufficient to lift off. A week of further review of the data was conducted, then, with nerves running high, the X-40 once again lit off, and made its first free flight. Under the command of onboard computers, the Starcat lifted to a height of several hundred feet, hovered, then descended to land safely. Onlookers marveled at the smooth takeoff and landing—“Just like Buck Rogers,” one was heard to remark. It was an ambitious start, but the testing would only get more challenging. The envelope was pushed once again on the second flight in May, which was intended to test the entire duration of the X-40’s design goals. Reaching an apogee of roughly 3 km and spending around 140 seconds in the air, Starcat Alpha demonstrated that it was everything the X-40 program demanded it be.

The next flights got increasingly ambitious, spaced weekly to allow full review of data from each. Flight three was the first to translate in flight, moving 150 feet off the pad center, then diverting back to land once again, a feat flight four repeated. Flight five was intended to demonstrate the ability to “stick the landing,” the program’s internal jargon for a landing where instead of settling slowly down with a thrust-to-weight ratio of less than one, the vehicle would instead simply nearly shut down its engines and fall towards the pad. At the precisely calculated moment, the engines would flare to full power, and decelerate the vehicle to a stop precisely as it reached the pad. By making a faster landing, the “sticking” method would allow more fuel-efficient landings, preserving more of the vehicle’s capability for the aerial acrobatics planned to test its aerodynamic and thruster flight controls. However, while almost all went well in the flight, the moment the engines picked to reignite was not entirely correct, and the vehicle was still moving at slightly less than 8.3 m/s when its footpads made contact with the ground. The legs’ hydraulics could not fully absorb the shock, and instead pre-designed crumple points in the legs and structure absorbed the blow. These points were designed as sacrificial, permanently deforming to save the rest of the structure. Nevertheless, the post-flight inspections and repairs Starcat Alpha would require to verify that the system had indeed protected the vehicle’s key systems from damage would exceed the capabilities of the White Sands facility. X-40/01 would have to be returned to the manufacturing facility at Calverton for repairs and inspection. Fortunately, Starcat Bravo was completing checkout, allowing the program to resume—or, at least, for investigations of the causes of the failure to be carried out in parallel with repairs to the damaged spaceframe. The same Super Guppy that carried X-40/01 back to Calverton in late June returned bearing X-40/02. Starcat Bravo became the target for inspections of the avionics, in parallel with experiments with the “Iron Bird” version of the software in servers on the ground at Bethpage’s engineering headquarters. The investigations discovered that there had been a mis-calibration in the conversion of the X-40s computers from the flight software for the conventional landings to that needed for the “stuck” landings, which had led to the IMU “drifting”: failing to correctly correlate data from onboard GPS and radar systems, overestimating its altitude during the ascent, and thus thinking it was further from the ground than it actually was. If the software’s vision had matched reality, the vehicle could have touched down gently—it just happened that the real ground had interfered a bit less than 15 feet above where the vehicle thought the ground was. The software was corrected and Starcat Bravo made its first flight in August, successfully demonstrating the “stuck” landing.

At roughly the same time back on Long Island, the inspection of damage to Alpha concluded—the sacrificial legs and crumple zones had functioned better than predicted, and vehicle X-40/01 turned out to have sustained almost no serious damage in spite of maximum deceleration exceeding 20 Gs. One of the engineering team joked that in light of landing (mostly) safely in spite of the G-load, “Add a tail hook, and the damn thing would almost be carrier qualified.” In the morning, the repair engineering review team returned to find that second-shift workers had improvised the missing equipment out of cardboard and aluminum foil, and fitted it with tape to the vehicle, along with a paper Navy roundel. It was a reflection of the high morale of the project—they had solved a major hurdle, and were moving forward in spite of it. Alpha had survived and was beginning rework; meanwhile, the second flight of X-40/02 (the sixth of the program overall), continued to push the envelope, combining a translation in-flight with a stuck landing on the same pad. The success was the first preparation for the next major challenge—testing rapid turnaround. On the next flight, taking place in early September, Starcat Bravo lifted off, pointed its nose east, and translated to the second pad, touching down safely. Overnight and all morning and afternoon, engineers and technicians converged on the vehicle. Just before sunset, the vehicle lifted off again having demonstrated a 28-hour turnaround, returning once more to its original pad. However, in the rapid turnaround, a fuel line on Number Three engine had been opened for purging but then improperly sealed as the task was handed over to another technician. In flight, leaks from the purge point let the engine bay fill with hydrogen gas, which ignited from exhaust backblast from the pad as the vehicle touched down. Even as the vehicle settled onto the pad, the inspection panels of the engine bay blew out from the resulting explosion. Testing was halted for the year, and the vehicle had to return to Calverton to take up its place in the repair/assembly bay that Starcat Alpha, fully repaired, had vacated only the week before.

Unfortunately, X-40/02’s damage was much more severe than the more minor issues suffered by Alpha. The fireball inside the engine bay had charred wiring harnesses, blown out insulation, deformed panels, and completely incinerated the management computers on each of the engines. They would have to be removed and returned to Rocketdyne for repair and recertification, while the Grumman team tore the entire lower vehicle apart searching out the extent of the flame’s damage. At the same time, the engineering staff and DARPA were carrying out a thorough review of the X-40 program’s goals, pacing, and handling procedures along with the staff from White Sands, who were brought back to Bethpage. Suntans were not the only things they brought with them—complaints about the ground support equipment, funding, staffing requirements, and cavalier expectations from Bethpage about flight rates were aired, and it wasn’t just the weather around the Bethpage plant that was frosty all winter. However, with the spring, work at New Mexico had begun to rectify some of the worst complaints, and Grumman’s Calverton staff was able to offer some good news: the certification that X-40/02’s frame was not permanently damaged, nor would its engines require more than an overhaul. Starcat Alpha’s engine bay was retrofitted to try to avoid a repeat of the incident, and then it was packaged and shipped to White Sands.

The 1991 testing campaign had a more successful beginning than the previous year. Between April and mid-June, Starcat Alpha made a total of five successful flights, bringing the program total to 14 flights in less than a year and a half—close to what Grumman’s cost analysis indicated could be break-even for a reusable first stage, and in spite of the two major failures. On the fifth flight, though, one landing leg failed to lock in place during deployment, and the vehicle toppled. Fortunately, the Grumman “build them durable” tradition and the review of potential combustion hazards the previous winter made it nothing more than an embarrassment, and the vehicle was just sidelined in the hangar for inspection. After ten months of teardown, inspection, overhaul, and reintegration, X-40/02 was once again shipped from Long Island to White Sands in July to take up the slack, marking the first instance of both vehicles being present at the test site. The twin Starcats only shared a hangar for a few days, though, before Bravo was towed out and erected on the pad for its first flight since the engine bay explosion. A full static fire of the engines was conducted and then on July 3rd, X-40/02 once again took to the sky. With its successful flight, the program moved to examining the so-called “swan dive” necessary to put the aerodynamic controls into use, demonstrating the vehicle’s ability to pitch over its nose far enough to bring the control surfaces to bear, then rotate once more vertical before landing on propulsion. The first swan dive flight was over the primary pad, only demonstrating the ability to pitch over into and out of the correct attitude, but the second in August once again translated to the secondary pad in a “swoop” controlled only aerodynamically by the fins before pulling the nose up vertically to land. However, the flight revealed some issues in the aerodynamic control sequences that were less than graceful, and the vehicle was lifted off its gear and towed back to the hangar to join Alpha while Bethpage engineers reworked the control code, a process that ended up taking the rest of the year as aerodynamic models were re-checked in wind tunnels and primitive CFD.

In February 1992, the test program began again, this time with X-40/01 bearing the results of a winter of code overhauls at Bethpage uploaded into its computers. The flight demonstrated transition into and then once more out of the swan dive attitude three times in the second-longest flight of the program (only slightly shorter than Alpha’s second flight, which had demonstrated the maximum design duration of the vehicle’s flight capability). However, circumstances caught up with the vehicle—a small crack in one of the inner lamina of the composite aeroshell was stressed by the unusually strong heating of the extended flight, and as the heat on it was cycled as the vehicle nosed into swan dive and then out again, the crack grew. During the next flight, which repeated the August flight of Bravo to the auxiliary pad on aerodynamic controls, the crack reached a critical length, having compromised a portion of the aeroshell near the Number Two engine access port. On touchdown, the shock was enough to shed loose a portion of the aeroshell about a foot square. Both vehicles were returned to Calverton. X-40/01’s entire aeroshell was removed and inspected, then replace from spares, while X-40/02’s was removed, found to be intact, and reinstalled. Both Bethpage and White Sands teams took advantage of the stand-down to incorporate overhauls to the vehicles and support systems which lead to an early end to testing for the year.

By 1993, Starcat operations had become fairly routine: X-40/02 was shipped to White Sands and made four flights, expanding the swan dive’s use and successfully demonstrating the rapid turnaround originally attempted three years before. However, on the fourth flight, it suffered a leak in the oxygen tank which lead to a small fire onboard the vehicle during descent. In spite of the nominal landing, the premature termination of the 1992 season caused by Alpha’s aeroshell lead to Bravo being shipped back to Long Island for thorough inspection. The issue was traced to an inadequate weld in the liquid oxygen tank which through a combination of thermal and mechanical stresses had opened a pinpoint leak. The entire weld was redone, while X-40/01, checked and identified as clear of the issue, was shipped to White Sands to pick up the program. However, during the mid-June thirteenth flight of the airframe and the 24th of the program overall, Starcat Alpha’s Number One engine suffered a partial failure, forcing it to abort the nominal mission and go for an early landing. With both vehicles temporarily out of commission, the program’s goals were examined—almost every objective the testing had set out to perform had been completed, essentially exhausting the potential of the Starcat design. Any further testing would likely require design of a new, larger vehicle closer to the program concept’s fully reusable first stage--an expense which the post-Cold War (and rapidly contracting) SDIO could not afford to fund. Moreover, there had been a major change at Grumman headquarters in 1992 which affected the desire to continue with the program.

Grumman’s finances had always been shaky, essentially living from contract to contract, and the discontinuation of production of the F-14 Tomcat had put the company’s future into doubt. While they felt they had good odds of securing some of the contracts in Project Constellation, one or two space contracts couldn’t keep the entire company afloat without some of the fighter contracts the company had always relied on. When the company’s designs were not selected as a finalist for the Advanced Tactical Fighter competition, the company management began to consider if it might be necessary to seek a merger with another company to survive in the post-Cold War market. In fact, their experience was highly desired by another company who had failed in the Advanced Tactical Fighter contest, losing out to the eventual winner, the Northrop F-23. For decades, Boeing had been an outside competitor for Air Force and Navy fighter and bomber contracts, hoping to expand from its traditional strengths of transport and commercial aircraft into the lucrative arena of combat aircraft. Despite its success with legends like the B-17, B-29, B-47, and B-52, however, and the potential of designs such as the XF8B, Boeing had had little success in winning such contracts, failing time and time again to break into the market. Once again, with the Advanced Tactical Fighter, Boeing had stumbled. With only one other fighter competition, the Joint Strike Fighter, on the near horizon, Boeing was determined to do whatever it took to secure the contract. Grumman’s history in fighter, especially naval fighter, design, offered a significant chance to gain experienced and talented engineering staff to contribute to the forthcoming JSF competition, while its recent experience with Starcat offered opportunities in another, unexpected, arena. Grumman’s non-aviation businesses were also potentially valuable assets, whether they were sold to provide cash or retained for ongoing profit. After considering the total possible value of Grumman to their future, Boeing made an attractive merger offer in late 1992, which Grumman’s management considered carefully, and eventually accepted.

Thus, in 1993 when Starcat’s future was being debated, it was by a team under new management and with altered goals. While throughout ’91 and ’92, Grumman engineers had been studying potential applications of Starcat, including high-altitude hops with the current vehicles with higher-efficiency flight profiles, the potential for adding a small (perhaps also reusable) upper stage to boost research payloads above the Von Karman line, and/or developing the always-intended larger derivative and operating it commercially, Boeing was more interested in making use of the Starcat team’s experience for gaining the Constellation lander contract, and thus did not fight hard to counter SDIO’s intention to terminate the program. Some of the team saw the lunar contract bid and potential to return to Grumman’s spaceflight roots as an intriguing challenge, and were happy to accept the transfer. However, some of the core Starcat devotees both in engineering and operations were put off by what they saw as abandonment of a design of tremendous potential. Several key members of the team thus left Grumman behind in search of others who might be interested in following the trail that Starcat had blazed. In the shutdown, the airframes (which were technically Air Force property) were reclaimed. Starcat Alpha eventually took up residence in the Smithsonian, while Starcat Bravo was transported to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio and placed on display in the Research and Development Hangar of the National Museum of the United States Air Force. After years warehoused against further disposition, the remaining flight spares and portions of the damaged Alpha aeroshell were acquired by the Cradle of Aviation Museum on Long Island, where (in association with some volunteers from the Starcat team) they were assembled with dummy replica RL-10s to create a display replica, the so-called “Starcat Gamma.”
 
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So it would seem that the far more Conservative - when compared to the X-30 - X-40 was able to get to a Solid Testing Phase and deliver real results, if not without incident. Looks to me as if the problem was getting it to not only work, but work repeatedly, frequently, and reliably. And that they usually managed to get two out of three in this regard. Still better than the X-30 though, which I seriously question as to whether it even made it off of the Design Board. The evidence points to No.

And a Boeing/Grumman Merger here? This could make for interesting - and lucrative - times for the new company. What with both the S1-E and possibly a new Lunar Lander to boot.

So it seems that Expendable Launch Vehicles are going to be sticking around for a good while longer now, with budgets coming down as financial reality sets in.
 
Very nice. :) I look forward to seeing more from the Starcat team in the future.

Just one minor error:

Reaching an apogee of (height) and spending (time) in the air, Starcat Alpha demonstrated that it was everything the X-40 program demanded it be.
 
Very nice. :) I look forward to seeing more from the Starcat team in the future.

Just one minor error:

I guessed that was less an error, and more that attempting to guess what the in universe parameters would be was too tough.

If, IF, thats so, then (REDACTED) or something might have worked better, but i can live with what we have.
 
I guessed that was less an error, and more that attempting to guess what the in universe parameters would be was too tough.

If, IF, thats so, then (REDACTED) or something might have worked better, but i can live with what we have.
It was a reminder to myself to do it later when I was writing it and then getting distracted and forgetting to go back and do it. It'll be corrected.
 
So why does the F-23 win in this timeline?

Because Lockheed has a surviving commercial airliner business and a thriving launch vehicle (and satellite) business, at a corporate level it is more distracted from the ATF competition than OTL, and overall puts a smaller fraction of its resources into winning it. This is enough to tip the balance to Northrop, which has not developed any new business lines relative to OTL.
 
So essentially we saw a more successful DC-X program here?

I think it's ... not quite criminally negligent for the DCX program to have been abandoned like that. Yes, it was never going to perform up to claims, Im sure, but a DCY-esque totally reusable first stage would have helped a lot.

Jerry Pournelle goes rather overboard on many topics, but he's right on here. The POINT of experimental vehicles is to push the envelop, and if you dont prang one or two, youre not pushing hard enough. (Especially given that theyre uncrewed)

Otoh, ittl, while the program looks more successful, it also looks like it was similarly put away in the attic and the lessons ignored, like so many NASA projects iotl. Sigh.
 
What could make this story into a really good read is making the paragraphs shorter and therefore more numerous. It is too "Wall-of-Text"-ish.
 
The Wall of text is a wall. Otherwise, good update.

What could make this story into a really good read is making the paragraphs shorter and therefore more numerous. It is too "Wall-of-Text"-ish.
Upon review, the average words/paragraph was about 450 for this post, compared to the more normal 300+/-50. I've done a bit of revision that should hopefully improve the situation.

Otoh, ittl, while the program looks more successful, it also looks like it was similarly put away in the attic and the lessons ignored, like so many NASA projects iotl. Sigh.
We shall see...
 
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I think it's ... not quite criminally negligent for the DCX program to have been abandoned like that. ...

...
We shall see...

Right. I don't think it's been abandoned. I know e of pi has interest in vertical-landing-recovered first stages, such as Elon Musk has indicated Space-X's Falcon program is aiming to develop. So for Boeing, the makers of the Saturn Multibody family, to absorb Grumman, the experts on vertical-landing rockets, seems very significant to me.

As for me--I think I can agree a vertical-landing first stage is a clever and perhaps simply workable idea. Provided we are not talking about actually returning the stage all the way back to the pad it launched from so as to allow for extremely rapid turnarounds! A good first stage supplies only a modest amount of the tangential, orbit-wise velocity of an orbital spacecraft, most of which is supplied by the upper stage or stages--the first stage's job is mainly to get the upper stages well off the ground and heading upward at a brisk velocity; this buys time, in thin or negligible atmospheric density, for the upper stage to do its work of actually orbiting the payload.

But that said, in real life first stages do generally supply a fair if modest couple thousand meters per second downrange velocity, and if we were to trim this down to zero so as to better achieve return of the first stage to the pad, we'd either have to scale up the mass of the launch system as a whole quite a lot to enable the bigger upper stage or stages needed to make up the loss of this speed--bearing in mind the exponential nature of the rocket equation--or else take a big hit in payload to orbit.

It is my understanding that the proposed Falcon-Reusable that SpaceX and Musk like to talk about will indeed have something like half the payload capability of the comparable classes of expendable Falcons. This strikes me as a high price to pay, to either launch with little or no downrange velocity to speak of, or to have to cancel and reverse that velocity once the upper stages are released, to make the stage fly back to the original pad to land there for quick-turnaround reuse on the time scale of hours.

On the other hand--if we stick to established launch profiles, and merely want the first stage to survive the aerodynamics of reentry and supply it with a bit of reserve fuel, auxiliary engines perhaps, an advanced guidance system and landing legs, I suppose that the cost of enabling it to land many hundreds of kilometers downrange, presumably (since both Canaveral and Kourou launch over water) onto some kind of recovery ship, could be quite reasonably low. Now we don't have the stage at the launch site, ready for a quick refueling and second launch that same day--but we do have it back, on a ship that presumably can be designed to be the refitting/inspection hangar itself, so that given turnaround times more realistically measured in days than hours, the stage can indeed be ready to be rolled straight to the assembly building and integrated into another launch stack by the time the ship makes port.

Such a set-up would not mean that launches must be spaced many weeks apart--if it takes a week to cycle one particular first stage through to another launch, there can be seven of them in the pipeline and a launch every day. (If the Assembly Building only had the capacity for that sort of throughput!:rolleyes:)

The fact that the vertical-landing visionaries tend to dismiss the high cost of eschewing or countering downrange velocity and insist on the dang thing actually returning to the point of launch under its own power within the hour tends to erode my confidence in their superior wisdom versus say Skylon advocates. It's a hell of a thing to follow the Skylon pages over at NASASpaceflight.com and see Skylon-bashers assert that Falcon-Recoverable is "just a matter of putting legs on a proven booster." No it isn't! Either you build the recovery barge fleet or sacrifice half the payload one way or another to enable direct pad return, either way it's a big departure. It is reasonable to talk about direct pad returns and same day turnarounds if the vertical launch/landed vehicle is meant to be single-stage, because then it is returning to the pad from orbit. DC-X was of course meant to be such an SSTO craft. Doing for the first stage of a launch stack is a very different sort of deal.

I believe our authors understand that. Still, the latest post stressed the "quick-turnaround" on the pad of the X-40 system.
 
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