Eyes Turned Skywards

I'm creating some artwork on the Mars-12/13 probes, specifically Mars-12's landing on Phobos. It says that Mars '88 missions use a 6MV bus. Can I assume this is like the 1F bus, used on the Phobos-1/2 and Mars '96 IRL? Of course, I'm going to try make the probe as original as I possibly can, I won't copy the Phobos-1 spacecraft entirely, just the toroidal fuel tank and the solar panels will do.

For various reasons, I would say it would be fairly similar (though less...prone to issues). In particular, IIRC the 1F bus was designed to be a new "universal" design for space probes, which is also the case for the 6MV bus. Many of the same people, or similar people at least, would be working on it as well, so it would probably have a generally similar design.

(Additionally, we've implied that Fregat was developed and, well, it had to come from somewhere, didn't it?)
 
Part IV, Post 11: American astronomy in the early noughties
Good afternoon, everyone! Last week, we covered the last three of the original six authorized Artemis missions. However, not every flight investigating the universe has to go quite that far from home, and this week we're returning to that topic: space-borne astronomy in the care of Workable Goblin. Hope you all enjoy it!

Eyes Turned Skyward, Part IV: Post #11

Although Hubble was still weeks away from reentering Earth’s atmosphere when the Henrietta Swan Leavitt Telescope left the launch pad in late 1994, the successful injection of the latter into its trans-Lagrange trajectory marked the passing of a torch from one era of large-scale space astronomy to another. For the past decade, Hubble had been the most capable telescope on or around the planet. Though not the largest, it was not far off, and in a much more advantageous position. Its capabilities in visual, ultraviolet, and infrared observations had been exploited to the fullest by a generation of astronomers. As it tumbled and burned in the atmosphere over the South Pacific, with it went space-based visual observation capabilities, since Leavitt was an X-ray telescope, optimized to focus on one of the bands of electromagnetic energy not visible from the Earth’s surface. The development of larger ground-based visual telescopes, such as the Kecks, and the technology needed to make them nearly as effective as Hubble had made space-based optical telescopes less interesting and important for astronomers, a fact made clear by the lost-in-the-woods status of the putative Hubble-replacing Large Optical Space Telescope over the next decade.

Nevertheless, astronomers lamented that Leavitt was not able to be launched and commissioned a year earlier--long enough that it could have made at least a few observations in conjunction with Hubble before the latter had to be retired. In the meantime, as it started observations in late 1995, astronomers were looking towards its first results, expected to be as large an improvement over the last x-ray telescope, the Einstein Observatory of the late 1970s, as Einstein had been over previous sounding rocket experiments. Early on, Leavitt focused on supernovas and supernova remnants, imaging the leftovers of these brilliant stellar explosions to explore the results of the different processes that can give rise to them, with observation campaigns focusing on the famous Crab remnant, SN 1987A, SN 1993J, and other, less prominent objects. At the same time, Leavitt was also being used to image a number of energetic and nearby galaxies. During the course of one of these campaigns, against the Circinus galaxy in the southern sky, astronomers detected an unusually bright object near the galaxy, one that resisted attempts to clear the “error” from Leavitt’s detectors. Suspicions that it might actually be a strange object of some kind were confirmed shortly after, when observations carried out by the Anglo-Australian Observatory confirmed that Leavitt had actually discovered the remnants of a supernova that had exploded earlier in the year, the first ever to be detected by x-ray observations instead of optical methods. More was yet to come, as Leavitt participated in observations of SN 1996X, a Type IA supernova detected early in the year and quickly marked as a priority target for further observations, to explore the x-ray afterglow left by the supernova and its structure and decay over time. Although not the only observation campaign that Leavitt took part in over the next year, it was one of the largest, coordinated with multiple ground-based observatories, and helped define Type IA x-ray light curves for future research, allowing improvements to the standard candle scale that Leavitt’s namesake had introduced with her research into Cephid variables.

While Leavitt was stretching her scientific wings, back on Earth work was proceeding on the Large Gamma-ray Observatory that had been approved in her wake. During the nearly two decades the concept had spent maturing, it had been refined from a catch-all gamma-ray mission building on the earlier HEAO missions to one focused primarily on imaging gamma-ray sources, pinpointing gamma-ray sources and beginning to understand their internal structure and how they correlated with astronomical objects visible in other bands by adapting techniques developed by particle physicists on Earth to observe gamma rays over the past fifty years. With decades of refinement behind the basic technologies involved, progress was relatively smooth; although the usual difficulties in adapting them to spaceflight arose, as well as certain unusual problems (dealing with background noise was a particular problem), the fundamental maturity of the underlying techniques meant that solutions could usually be quickly found to any new issues that arose. As the decade ground forwards, LGO’s construction seemed to move in tandem.

With work progressing on LGO in the foreground, in the background efforts on LOST and, in particular, the Large Infrared Space Telescope that was its chief competitor continued apace. After all, although neither was an approved program, LIST had been anointed the “next logical step” after LGO and to follow up Hubble by the National Academy of Sciences, while LOST was in all respects a direct successor to Hubble in capability, if bolstered by recent classified developments in large space-based optics systems. Both, however, had to confront serious problems, such as LOST’s lack of broad community support (or, indeed, any community support), a problem not easily solved or dealt with, and one that would continue to marginalize the concept. LIST’s issues, by comparison, were much simpler; essentially, although the United States had plenty of ground-based infrared telescopes, and had tested a number of aerial infrared telescopes, it had never actually launched a space infrared telescope, unlike the Europeans or Japanese. There was simply no experience in building or operating a cryogenically cooled, space-based telescope, creating technical risks that had played a part in preventing LIST from becoming the next major American astronomy mission. To remedy this issue, supporters of the LIST concept, and of space-based infrared astronomy more generally, had developed a cheaper, simpler concept, one that could lead up to the full-scale LIST.

Building on the results of the European IRAS satellite twenty years earlier, WISE--the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer--would bring newer technology and superior capabilities to bear on the survey mission. Higher resolution, additional observation bands, and more complete all-sky image sets would make for a new, superior map of the infrared sky. Cooler objects, such as asteroids and brown dwarfs, would also be visible to WISE, unlike IRAS, boosting research into entirely new classes of object as well. And, beyond the scientific results, WISE would provide valuable engineering data and operational experience similar to that needed for LIST. Built as part of the long-standing Explorer program for small Earth-orbiting satellites, WISE was launched in 1998 and operated for nearly fifteen months, several months longer than expected, before its coolant supply was depleted and it was retasked for asteroseismology research using its star tracker, a program that lasted a further year. In that time, it completed two full sky surveys and a substantial part of a third, discovering tens of thousands of asteroids, comets, and other small solar system bodies, along with dozens of brown dwarfs and other cool stellar objects. WISE’s data set also ruled out the existence of any unknown large bodies--planets or small stars--orbiting the Sun in the Oort Cloud, where previous surveys would not have been able to detect them. Besides these nearby targets, WISE was also able to facilitate research into interstellar dust, a strong source of infrared light, and into distant, infrared-bright galaxies, often merging galaxies or young galaxies experiencing their first bursts of star formation. Although much smaller and closer to home than LIST was planned to be, WISE was also completely successful in demonstrating critical engineering and design features of the bigger telescope, greatly increasing confidence that it could be built and flown successfully.

Aside from the type of gradual progress exemplified by WISE, where incremental developments in technology were used to build increasingly capable telescopes, the late 1990s saw the beginnings of a major revolution in astronomy, with the discovery of the first exoplanet around a main-sequence star, 70 Virginis b, in 1996. While astronomers had for centuries believed that planets most likely orbited other stars, repeated searches and occasional discovery claims, like the infamous claims by Peter van de Kamp of detecting gas giant planets orbiting the nearby red dwarf Barnard’s Star had always amounted to nothing. Verification, the ability to establish that there really were planets out there, triggered a rush of interest, and the initial trickle of discoveries soon widened to a stream, then a flood as finding the real Holy Grail of life-bearing planets abruptly appeared possible.

Nevertheless, there were problems in the new astronomy of exoplanets. Many of the first exoplanets discovered were giants with highly elliptical orbits--like 70 Virginis b--or which orbited extremely close to their stars, like 51 Pegasi b, one of the earliest exoplanets to be discovered. In either case, the formation of terrestrial planets, and hence life, would be unlikely. It was true that methods for discovering planets were, at that time, biased towards giants of this type; Jupiter would have been barely detectable, at best, had astronomers been studying the solar system. Nevertheless, it was possible that the Solar System was unusual, and that this type of system was being detected more often because it really was more common, not just because of a bias in the detection methods. The only way to tell would be to push the sensitivity limits--to build instruments capable of detecting smaller planets in less favorable orbits--and to scan more stars, many more stars, to ensure that a significant sample size would be captured even if only a few stars had planets.

Here, astronomers ran into a second, more serious problem in the limitations of their instruments. Planetary searches require precision measurement of slight variances in certain stellar properties, such as brightness or proper motion, which can be thrown off by the Earth’s atmosphere. Similarly, scanning large numbers of stars would be much easier in space, where the amount of the sky blocked off by various obstacles would be much less than at any terrestrial observatory. Finally, there were of course still many astronomers dedicated to studying stars and galaxies, not planets, who still wanted the always precious commodity of telescope time. Searching a large number of stars would therefore require a dedicated instrument, whether or not it was located in space. This point was driven home when data from WAPPE, the Wide-Area Precision Parallax Explorer, was reprocessed in order to see if any of its target stars had planets orbiting them, via direct astrometrical analysis, only to produce no viable results. Despite the high precision of the astrometrical data collected, WAPPE’s primary targets had been standard candles, objects with known luminosity which could be measured to better determine their distance as part of WAPPE’s mission of refining the cosmic yardstick used to measure distance to other astronomical objects. As standard candles are often unlikely at best to have planets around them, this meant that WAPPE’s dataset included few stars which were even candidates for study.

Early proposals for space-based planetary observatories, however, focused more on aspiration than these relatively prosaic near-term needs. The discovery of giant planets seemed to herald the coming detection of terrestrial planets, and multiple plans were floated for satellites which could not only do this, but go beyond to actually image exoplanets, or at least measure their spectra, and therefore, perhaps, discover life itself. Projects such as the so-called Terrestrial Planet Telescope of the European Space Agency, Japan’s ASTRO-T, or NASA’s Extrasolar Planet Imaging Camera all envisioned large systems capable of directly detecting and imaging even terrestrial-sized planets orbiting in the habitable zone of their stars. This initial enthusiasm was quickly tempered, as studies soon showed that any of the systems would be very costly and, moreover, very difficult to realize in practice. The interferometers favored for EPIC, for example, would require extreme precision in measuring telescope-to-telescope distance, perhaps too much to be practically realizable.

As such, these missions were downsized, reoriented towards the more modest goal of simply detecting terrestrial planets. In this, there were several techniques that were beginning to be available by the time their initial goals were being abandoned, such as the gravitational microlensing technique that had been developed by Polish astronomers through the decade. The most promising technique, and importantly one that had recently been demonstrated at the time, was the so-called transit method, where the brightness of a star would be continuously measured to detect small dips, possibly caused by the passage of a planet in front. Careful study could distinguish planet-caused dips in brightness, or transits, from other sources of variation such as starspots or flares, and it could be sensitive to much smaller planets than could possibly be detected through most other techniques. Although the random orientation of stellar spin axes would mean that most extrasolar systems would not be detectable through this method, that would impart no bias to the results overall, allowing scientists to make firm statistical conclusions about the frequency of different types of planets--of whether giants were really more common than smaller, more Earth-like planets or not.

While the Europeans continued to study the concept for their next mission selection round, NASA was able to move ahead more quickly with their Explorer program once EPIC was reoriented. The revised mission was selected in 2002 and launched in 2005 to begin a thorough search for new planets. And it delivered; although the data took several years to process, even the first few months of observations after it reached its operational orbit contained more planetary candidates than had been detected by every other detection campaign combined since 1996, with hundreds of confirmed and thousands of unconfirmed planets proving to exist within its field of view. In order to gather more statistics and confirm or rule out its remaining planetary candidates, observations continued for five years until an an electrical failure in 2010 spacecraft’s retirement, though not before several hundred more planets were verified. The enormous success of this mission despite its relatively limited field of view helped spur the approval during that time of the European Giordano Bruno spacecraft, which would be able to scan vastly more sky and detect enormously more planets than EPIC possibly could, providing a wider selection of targets for other follow-up observations.

Besides investing in new Earth-orbiting, free-space telescopes, since the announcement of Project Constellation in 1989 astronomers had been studying the potential of astronomical observations from the Moon. Compared to conventional space observatories, lunar basing offers several potential advantages, such as a stabler, unmoving platform for telescopes more sensitive to movement, additional baseline for Very-Long Baseline Interferometry radio observations, ultra-cold regions near the poles for emplacement of cryogenic telescopes without requiring coolant, and, perhaps most prominently, a far side shielded by thousands of kilometers of solid rock from the considerable radio noise generated by Earth by both human activities and natural phenomena. Nevertheless, despite these potential advantages the high cost and complexity of moving telescopes to the lunar surface had prevented any exploration of the possibilities, so that in 1989 they remained merely theoretical potential. From the outset, Artemis sought to change that, and at least demonstrate that the potential capabilities unlocked by lunar-based telescopes could be realized in the real world, soliciting payloads from astronomers beginning almost before the program itself for emplacement at one or more of the (at that time not yet firmly selected) landing sites.

Among the first payloads suggested by astronomers for Artemis flight were radio telescopes, the beginnings of what would become the FROST, for Farside Radio Observing Scanning Telescope, arrays. Although many concepts were proposed, ranging from dipole arrays focused on low-frequency observations impossible on Earth to elaborate, multipurpose dish arrays on the lunar Farside, the simplest idea, and the one that quickly gained the most support, was to emplace a few small radio telescopes at the landing sites for experimental observations. Out of necessity, the size and hence capability of the dishes carried on Artemis missions would be limited, but even small dishes would be able to at least demonstrate the basic concepts and produce useful results. Carried on the Artemis 7 and 8 missions to Mare Ingenii and the crater Antoniadi in 2002 and 2003, respectively, the FROST dishes integrated atomic clocks--the first ever emplaced on the lunar surface--to allow their integration into the Very Long Baseline Array, the largest and most capable very-long baseline interferometry system on the planet. By virtue of their position on the Moon, at widest separation the FROST dishes could be used to extend the VLBA baseline from a mere 8,600 kilometers to over 400,000, vastly improving angular resolution. Unfortunately, due to the small size of the FROST dishes, this capability could only be used on the brightest sources in the radio sky, and only for a small range of frequencies due to the limited mass of signal processing and detection equipment transportable on a lunar mission. Nevertheless, for those objects it could be used on, the enhanced Very Long Baseline Array, or eVLBA, was the most powerful imaging device in the Solar System. Additionally, FROST observations as part of eVLBA campaigns have been used as an independent check on laser ranging experiments measuring the distance between the Earth and Moon, much as similar observations are used on Earth to measure small crustal shifts and movements. Although the original FROST dishes have been shut down due to failures of their servomotor steering units and electronics after more than a decade of use, they wouldn't go unreplaced, with looser payload limits allowing the emplacement of a larger, more capable FROST-2 antenna and its associated data-processing elements, and the continuation of eVLBA operations.

Besides their main use as VLBA elements, the FROST and FROST-2 dishes have also been used in a number of independent observational programs, mostly when VLBA observations were scheduled on objects they were or are not capable of observing. As both FROST dishes were emplaced on the lunar farside, these have focused on radio frequencies not observable on Earth due to human-generated noise, producing the first maps of the radio sky in several bands. By far the most prominent of these observations, however, has been the SETI campaign over the summer of 2004, when both dishes were tasked to listen for emissions near the famous 1.42 GHz hydrogen hyperfine line. Besides searching for alien transmissions (none were detected, of course), this had the serious objective of studying the radio environment of the lunar farside around a frequency commonly used in radio astronomy, helping to characterize it for future telescopes, and was one of a number of observational campaigns in this vein carried out by the telescopes.

Although FROST had been a part of Artemis nearly since the beginning, the LIFT infrared telescope emplaced by Artemis 9 in 2004 was a much later breaking payload, only emerging after NASA confirmed that it would be sending at least one mission to explore one of the permanently shadowed craters discovered by the Lunar Reconnaissance Pioneer. The telescope’s origins stemmed from the realization that, quite aside from whether or not the permanently shadowed craters contained water ice or other volatile minerals, they were and are certain to be very, very cold. Cold enough, in fact, that an infrared telescope emplaced there could operate at near-optimum temperatures and enjoy the clarity of vacuum without needing elaborate sun-shielding or cryogenic coolant, as free-space telescopes needed. This, in turn, could allow much longer system lifetimes, and perhaps ongoing upgrades and improvements if located near a lunar base.

As ever, however, these theoretical advantages needed to be put to the operational test. To do so, astronomers at Goddard proposed that a small infrared telescope be emplaced at one of the permanently shadowed craters on the planned flight there. Although it would be no tremendously powerful observational instrument, it would at least be capable of proving the basic theory and, almost as importantly, developing techniques for operating systems in the intense cold of the permanently shadowed craters. To minimize the mechanical complexity of the system and avoid needing to design motors and drive systems capable of operating at temperatures at or below 100 Kelvin, some 170 degrees Celsius below zero, the Goddard scientists proposed that it should be a zenith or transit telescope, a type of telescope that sits fixed and allows the motion of the Earth--or Moon, in this case--to carry objects overhead. Due to the much smaller axial tilt of the Moon compared to the Earth, and its longer period of rotation, a transit telescope at one of the Moon’s poles will spend lengthy periods of time observing nearly the same portion of the sky, essentially acting as a permanent sentry for any changes in its small region of the sky. This limited scientific mission was, almost self-admittedly, a figleaf for the more critical engineering goals of the telescope, and despite lukewarm at best support from other astronomers, the Lunar Infrared Fixed Telescope was soon manifested by NASA for their polar crater mission, Artemis 9. Installed in the permanent chill of Shackleton with little fanfare or drama, LIFT soon began to produce, keeping a constant vigil on the sky around the celestial south pole for any fluctuations in the infrared sky. In doing so, it produced a constant stream of data showing not only that a passively cooled infrared telescope was a practical idea, but that the specific engineering concepts that had been developed to accommodate LIFT’s unique environment, like the specially designed and insulated ‘hot boxes’ needed to contain its electronics and RTG power source, were functional and effective. With a consensus growing around a polar site for any permanent base, plans were soon afloat to install a larger and more capable telescope--one with the cold-temperature mechanical systems that had been omitted from LIFT--if and when a mission returned to the poles and their permanently shadowed craters.

Even while astronauts were installing astronomical equipment on the Moon, slower-developing payloads like the Large Gamma Ray Observatory were finally finding their own way into space. After decades of study and development, its launch in 2005 atop a Saturn rocket, bound for a low Earth orbit just grazing the van Allen belts due to its massive size and weight compared with even Leavitt, was strangely anticlimactic, with astronomers already turning towards the next major observatory. Even as it had been prepared for launch, it had gained two things. First, it gained a name, as project leaders christened it the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, after the prominent American physicist of the early 20th century who had studied gamma rays, then experimentally proved that light waves could also be regarded as particles, a then-controversial concept in physics circles, before finally playing a key role in the Manhattan Project and overseeing the integration of Washington University in St. Louis as its Chancellor. Second, and more importantly, it gained a successor, as LIST went from being the most favored new major space astronomy initiative in the 2001 decadal survey to an approved project. Even as Compton gathered its first photons, astronomers were already turning towards the task of applying lessons learned from it, Leavitt, WISE, and LIFT to the big telescope they had been hungering for for the last decade.
 
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For various reasons, I would say it would be fairly similar (though less...prone to issues). In particular, IIRC the 1F bus was designed to be a new "universal" design for space probes, which is also the case for the 6MV bus. Many of the same people, or similar people at least, would be working on it as well, so it would probably have a generally similar design.

(Additionally, we've implied that Fregat was developed and, well, it had to come from somewhere, didn't it?)

That's good. I'm relatively new to Blender (about a month), and I've been wanting to create renders for this timeline for sometime. I happen to have a book which has somewhat detailed schematics of Soviet probes...
 
That was really cool to see! :)

Oh yes, I have the Soviet probes book, a book with detailed diagrams of planetary entry probes, all four volumes of Robotic Exploration of the Solar System. Plenty of reference material in those. Not cheap... :p

I think for my renders I'm going to concentrate on the unmanned probes, because I can't pose humans for s*** XD

Great timeline btw. If only this timeline was real...

Do you have plans for this timeline after Part IV is finished?

P.S. How do you get atmospheric halo to work on blender? Cycles if possible, no compositor.
 
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Hi, I love this timeline (enough to finally post something), and I'm curious about NASA's current budgetary allotments, in particular, the opportunities for planetary research groups.

OTL, we have the Flagship/New Frontiers/Discovery hierarchy:

(For reference, Flagships are >$1bn affairs, individually approved by Congress; New Frontiers are capped at a billion, chosen in the Decadal survey (which from the last post, we know exists), then competed against each-other in front of reviewer panels; and Discovery are the cheap ones at <$450mil. We get a New Frontiers mission every 5 years, and should be getting a Discovery every 2 if not for budget cuts.)

I'm sure we have something similar here, but with Artemis and all of these telescopes, I'm not sure what is left for my pet project Venus Atmospheric ISRU Blimp.

Can we get a peek into the priorities of the current Decadal survey? And if our pets aren't there, can we get input into the next one?

And speaking of inflatables and extraterrestrial habitation, do we have a Bigelow yet? Will Vectran-Space-Balloons be proved out sufficiently by the time Artemis goes to a lunar tube for us to see a tube-hab test?
 
Now they're really starting to find the Extrasolar Planets that reside "nearby". IIRC 51 Pagasi b was discovered since it's mass and closeness to it's parent star meant said parent star was shaking hard when they checked via the radial velocity method.

In any case, nice to see how things are looking at the less-known unmanned side again.
 
Hi, I love this timeline (enough to finally post something), and I'm curious about NASA's current budgetary allotments, in particular, the opportunities for planetary research groups.

OTL, we have the Flagship/New Frontiers/Discovery hierarchy:

(For reference, Flagships are >$1bn affairs, individually approved by Congress; New Frontiers are capped at a billion, chosen in the Decadal survey (which from the last post, we know exists),
Ah, that's jumping to conclusions that you really shouldn't. This post is about astronomy, and the astronomical decadal survey process has been around since the 1960s, before our POD (specifically, the first decadal survey was published in 1964). The planetary science decadal survey, which is what you're referring to, has only existed since 2003 IOTL, and was basically copied from the astronomical decadal survey process. I invite you to go back and carefully examine all of my posts about planetary science and planetary exploration and see whether I mention a decadal survey for planetary science in any of them (I don't).

then competed against each-other in front of reviewer panels; and Discovery are the cheap ones at <$450mil. We get a New Frontiers mission every 5 years, and should be getting a Discovery every 2 if not for budget cuts.)

I'm sure we have something similar here, but with Artemis and all of these telescopes, I'm not sure what is left for my pet project Venus Atmospheric ISRU Blimp.

Can we get a peek into the priorities of the current Decadal survey? And if our pets aren't there, can we get input into the next one?
Well, I'm going to be writing a post about this--in fact, I already have written quite a number of posts about the planetary program if you look at the whole timeline--so I can't exactly just answer these questions. I can say that if you go back and read over the posts I have written on robotic spaceflight, sum up the missions, and recall that "cornerstone" means, roughly speaking, "flagship" and "Pioneer" means "Discovery," that you should be quite enlightened. In particular, you may wish to look at the previous post on the planetary program, which was posted not so long ago, which should answer some of these questions. You may also wish to recall the processes that led up to the creation of the planetary science decadal survey process in the early 2000s, in particular the mission drought of the 1980s, and think about how the different conditions of this timeline might have changed the incentives and interests of planetary scientists during the 1990s and 2000s.

Incidentally, if you compare the telescopes to OTL, you'll see that there hasn't actually been a great deal of difference. I feel that the scientific priorities of the astronomy decadal survey are not that informed by human space flight except in a few instances (one notable example being the 1980 decadal survey from OTL, which was a little...optimistic about the Shuttle), and in any case the bulk of astronomical research takes place on ground-based telescopes, so there is something of a convergence there. Hubble, Leavitt, and now Compton are generally similar to their OTL counterparts Hubble, Chandra, and Compton, except that Hubble was shorter lived and not designed to be serviced (reducing the spending on that) and Leavitt was launched to L2 instead of a very elliptical orbit (which is basically similar operationally speaking). A similar amount of money is being spent on astronomy as OTL, maybe even less on a year-by-year basis (instead of launching three Great Observatories in a ten year period, NASA has launched three over a twenty year period, for example).

Additionally, while the Artemis program certainly looks quite large and expensive--and it is large and expensive, to be fair--you have to take into account the lack of the Shuttle program, so that the current program of record is Station-Moon instead of Shuttle-Station (as it was at this point OTL). Overall spending is higher but not enormously higher.

(Finally, I can say that a Venus Atmospheric ISRU blimp is not happening. Too risky, too expensive, not enough of a constituency. Venus has always been a little marginal in the American planetary science community)

And speaking of inflatables and extraterrestrial habitation, do we have a Bigelow yet? Will Vectran-Space-Balloons be proved out sufficiently by the time Artemis goes to a lunar tube for us to see a tube-hab test?
There are probably people thinking about inflatable commercial stations, but probably not a Bigelow himself because NASA has been developing and using inflatable habitats themselves for the Artemis missions (to increase the amount of space available in the habitat lander) instead of the complicated situation OTL where they had to pawn everything off on private investors. No landing near a lava tube is planned for various reasons, nor is a lava tube base on the drawing board for now, so they're not planning a tube-hab test.
 
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Thanks! I'm no expert, so this is very enlightening.

You may also wish to recall the processes that led up to the creation of the planetary science decadal survey process in the early 2000s, in particular the mission drought of the 1980s, and think about how the different conditions of this timeline might have changed the incentives and interests of planetary scientists during the 1990s and 2000s.

That's a great prompt, and I wish I had the background knowledge to actually follow it, but I've learned most of what I know about space mission planning from this TL :p (not a cop-out, I'm interested in finding out so you have a receptive audience if you want to give an overview or point to some whitepapers)

I've gone and skimmed through all the unmanned chapters and reread IV#8, and yes, there are important details I missed. I'll get back to awaiting this mystery meeting at Cornell.

Incidentally,

Venus has always been a little marginal in the American planetary science community

Why? The only answer I've ever gotten is that there was some back-room deal with the Soviets that gave Mars to America but put Venus off-limits. While there were certainly many Soviet missions to Venus OTL, I doubt that explanation. What led to lower American interest in Venus OTL, and why was it carried over to this TL? (if it's author preference, I won't argue it, I'm just curious)

I know Venus ISRU is a hard sell, I'm not trying to lobby; I'm just hoping that someone on here might have more knowledge or pointers to where to look.
 
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Why? The only answer I've ever gotten is that there was some back-room deal with the Soviets that gave Mars to America but put Venus off-limits. While there were certainly many Soviet missions to Venus OTL, I doubt that explanation. What led to lower American interest in Venus OTL, and why was it carried over to this TL? (if it's author preference, I won't argue it, I'm just curious)

There's no big explanation why, really. It's not because of a conspiracy or any back-room deals--both superpowers tried Venus and Mars missions, after all, right up until the Soviets collapsed. Partially, it's because a lot of the focus at NASA has always been on finding life, and there's obviously no life on Venus (well...David Grinspoon might dispute that. But I don't know how serious he's being about that). Partially, it's because there haven't been many Venus missions--not a lot of graduate students and scientists have been on Venus missions or study Venus compared to other planets and bodies, so there aren't a lot of advocates for Venus missions, so not many are launched, so there aren't a lot of people who work on Venus missions, and so on and so forth. Part of it is just bad timing; in the 1960s, missions were going everywhere, but in the 1970s budgets started closing in and in the 1980s there was no money for anything. Only a few missions could be funded, and they picked novel destinations (Voyager, Galileo) or more interesting ones, in some way (Viking) over big Venus missions, except for Magellan. A lot of things that in of themselves might not have been fatal, but together mean that there just isn't a lot of interest in Venus missions.

More latterly, the Venus people have had a hard time agreeing on what missions they want to push, unlike, say, the Mars or Jupiter community. Nearly all of them agree that sample return and a Europa orbiter (for example) are the things they want to do next. But for Venus, if you look at VEXAG's work, there are lots and lots of proposals, across all the cost classes. When you combine that with the fact that Venus advocates are thin on the ground, you can see that there's a bit of a problem there; every person pushing a Venus mission is, approximately speaking, pushing their own. That makes it difficult to really get a united voice, which is what you need to actually get money. That seems to be changing more recently and maybe in the future there will be a Discovery mission to Venus, and maybe the 2020 decadal survey will have a New Frontiers mission to Venus, or even a Flagship. But it's been a problem for a while. Contrast that to the Mars people, who have been very, very clear about wanting a sample return mission, over and over, even as major pressure was being put on them to go for something cheaper, until NASA gave up and manifested the Mars 2020 rover (which is a sample-caching rover). That's the sort of unity you need to get a mission in this environment (that or popularity in Congress)

I didn't really see these problems fading because many of them are pretty baked in to NASA as it exists at our PoD. There was already more focus on Mars and the outer planets and less of a constituency for Venus, budgets were going to fall, life was still a big interest for a lot of people, and so on and so forth. One bright point is that our VOIR is a little bit bigger than OTL's Magellan, so there are probably a few extra people involved in Venus exploration, but that can only do so much.
 
I'd be fascinated to learn more about OTL Venus ISRU proposals myself.

But in addition to the contingent historical issues WG cites, it seems to me that most possible categories of Venus mission are just plain more difficult and that the likelihood of an exciting payoff of any kind seems like a longer shot.

Just getting a spacecraft into its neighborhood is relatively easy, to be sure--but not much easier than to Mars. Interest in Mars too has fluctuated--being the most exciting target beyond the Moon in pre-spaceflight days the disappointment when the first flybys indicated it seemed basically like another Luna, only harder to get to, tended to sour enthusiasm--but then later missions have generally managed to find something interesting, both for the wonky scientific communities pushing for more missions on the high levels of policy-making and the general public.

Venus as target number two, on the other hand, has suffered much worse disappointments. Not only does it seem it must be a dead world, it seems to be a hell world to the public; a place that would kill an astronaut in seconds.

The logistics of putting X mass of payload into orbit around or on the surface of Venus are a bit easier than for Mars, but not a lot, especially as there has been far less aggressive use of aerodynamic braking generically in space travel than I'd think there might be. Obviously it is problematic designing a spacecraft to be encapsulated completely (or be able to retract everything completely) in a suitable aeroshell, but the delta-V savings available seem so high I marvel they are not compelling. Nevertheless, the only use of atmospheric braking I'm aware of other than for landing things on the surface of bodies with atmospheres is the subtler technique of using many passages through the thin outer layers of a body to first capture an incoming craft and then very slowly, over many months, bring the apoapse of the orbit down. Venus seems made for aerobraking.

But then what? Orbiting Mars, even granting the long periods the planet is often covered with sandstorms, it is generally possible to gather a lot of data by just passively looking, in various wavebands. Venus is always covered in opaque clouds; I gather even in infrared one would get no detail of the surface at all. To be sure, observing in UV and other bands one has a nifty view of the clouds themselves.

In addition to exploring Mars, a mission that arrives in its orbit can also observe Deimos and Phobos; Venus has no moons. For more elaborate, futuristic human exploration plans, the Martian moons are potential staging bases, but Venus offers no such way stations.

It is possible to land probes on the Martian surface, and have them report useful data for years; indeed solar-powered rovers can cover a great deal of ground. Good luck designing a Venus surface rover! The tremendous heat and pressure at the surface, combined with a dash of reactive substances far too sparse to serve as the basis of a chemical power generation system yet rendering the otherwise inert CO2 atmosphere corrosive, all demand a complete reinvention of materials science to devise machinery that can operate in those conditions, or else armoring materials we do know how to work with in a shell. Worse, while solar power is sufficient to operate Mars rovers, what power source would you use? Even with a good power source, pumping out heat faster than it flows in or is generated in the course of trying to pump it out and also operate generally is a hell of a demanding function, sure to need heavy power flow and quite likely to break down. But what would be a good power source? Sunlight is mostly reflected away. Even a fission reactor would be terribly inefficient due to the high temperature at which heat needs to be exhausted.

One very nifty thing one could do at Venus and not elsewhere is float balloons--there are other bodies where you can but in Venus's atmosphere one could float quite substantial craft; hydrogen is a nearly ideal lifting gas since it is lighter than anything and not flammable. Down near the surface, water would also make a fair lifting gas for that matter.

But again as with orbital observation, a high altitude dirigible or drifting probe can only observe so much, whereas a low altitude one still needs to go down far to get below the cloud layer, by which time it is in heat and pressure nearly as bad as on the surface. Either could take chemical and other data from the air, but neither can take a close look at surface items nor pick them up.

A manned mission to a given body implies the ability to launch the human crew back to Earth. An alternative is to have an unmanned probe pick up surface samples and launch them. Venus is not the very worst body to attempt either of these from, but it is far from the best either. We've briefly mentioned the possibility of ISRU--the atmosphere is abundant, compared to Mars's which is the obvious comparison. But the Martian atmosphere is obviously thick enough to supply the necessary material, or anyway most of it-Venus's is far thicker, enough to provide a major obstacle to any attempt to rocket off the surface. (A balloon could lift the craft up to high altitude where atmospheric density is as low as on Earth's surface, or lower).

Comparing Mars and Venus, the orbital and escape velocity for the former are both much lower; trying to blast off from Venus involves a longer burn even before penalizing for atmospheric drag and thrust reduction.

And as mentioned before--what power source can provide the energy for propellant production on Venus? What plant can operate in Venus's surface conditions?

When I envision a Venus operation these days, I tend to assume a component of it is indeed based on an aerostat. It's commonly said there is a layer of the atmosphere where temperature and pressure both match Earth surface conditions; some sort of "base" up there sidesteps a number of problems--although it is still necessary to have some element of the mission descend past there to to the surface, to investigate it properly, or to get samples. This too can involve an aerostat, but one of very different design since it would have to cross a very great range of temperature and pressure conditions.

And finally we come to the question, which is more interesting to those who advocate for and actually fund space missions, Venus or Mars? I think a strong argument can be made that we ought to be more interested in Venus. Conditions there are so very exotic that a thorough program of exploration ought to turn up some very interesting findings, which might even turn out to be of great technical value. Nor would I write off the possibility of some sort of life existing there--obviously a very strange form of life by our standards, relying on different chemistry completely.

But the issue of how to generate power for a surface probe relates to the strongest argument against Venerian life--there's plenty of energy down there, but not any good energy gradients--there's no convenient power flows to tap into. Related to this is the current geological consensus, which may or may not be true, that Venus's geology is one of stagnant flow with pressures building up so that every few hundred million years or so, there is a massive planet-wide eruption of mantle material, which then subsides into another long period of quiescence. Obviously this periodic outburst would be bad news for any ecosystem that formed adapted to the prevailing conditions, and if this model is correct, then there won't be any vulcanism or related phenomena to provide a possible niche for an exotic high-temperature Venerian biology.

Sanely or not, the assumption is that Venus is probably not interesting enough to justify attempting to overcome the obstacles. It may simply be "sour grapes," but these particular grapes, no matter how sweet they might actually be, are indeed placed up pretty high for us Terran foxes to jump to. The "grapes" of Mars and Jupiter and even asteroids are both more conveniently placed and easier to anticipate and hunger for.

If Venus offers us any rewards to justify the extra trouble, they will be of the kind we cannot possibly guess at. And some of what missions to Venus can teach us will be learned by us as we attempt to make devices that can operate on Venus's surface at all--we'll need to make giant autoclaves full of very high pressure analogs of that world's atmosphere to design and test these things, and in so doing we'll learn a lot of what the exotic environment can teach us, right here on Earth. Anything else we can learn from Venus will be more subtle extrapolations of that.
 
Shevek, you bring up an interesting point right at the end:

we'll need to make giant autoclaves full of very high pressure analogs of that world's atmosphere to design and test these things

Analogously, we need to build giant vacuum jars to test space probes on Earth, but to test anything meant for the upper Cytherian atmosphere, you could build a huge testing bay in the Mojave for the same cost. The hardest part would be the sulfuric/hydrochloric/hydrofluoric acid fog system, the rest is just HDPE paneling and treated dropcloths, since temperatures and pressures are the same between the two locations. You could even go without the HCl and HF since their concentrations are tracer than trace.

I would never expect a Venus-atmospheric-ISRU proof-of-concept aerostat to actually be launched in the near future (not until someone's keen enough on living over Venus that they're sending supplies). But the Cytherian atmosphere has the draw over the Moon and Mars and any asteroid, because we could test ISRU on Earth without needing to commit to a launch. The budget for such a test site is low enough that a university could build one -- ideally, a university with a chemical engineering department that does hazmat research, as that would make the room a multipurpose testing site.

Anyway, about telescopes:

The FROST-2 telescopes have atomic clocks -- what type of clock? I doubt a high-stability microchip-size clock like the DSAC currently in development would've been ready by 2003, and the less-stable CSAC wasn't first developed until 2004 OTL. Did Artemis-8 send up a large, heavy clock? It's possible that the added time-pressure of needing something for FROST-2 would've led to earlier development of miniaturized atomic clocks, though. Even a CSAC design would work, I believe, if GPS satellite tech was advanced enough by Mesyat launch to pack a GPS-sat atomic clock onto the Mesyat bus. I'll have to look back to see whether that was possible, but assuming it was done, then the Mesyats could be tuned from Earth using a few round-trip signals, and they could subsequently tune the FROST clock the same way.

Hmm, actually, as long as the clocks on the Mesyats are good, even if not atomic, they should be able to stay steady long enough between being tuned and subsequently tuning FROST, so they wouldn't actually need GPS clocks. FROST-2 would still likely need something like CSAC though, as far as I can tell. Which is a good thing -- the tech gets finished a year early, and it's also proven out with some very impressive (and non-DoD) accomplishments. That should accelerate the go-to-market, meaning portable electronics could get atomic clocks right about when they start becoming smartphones. More importantly for us, it means we could see their use in all sorts of sensing equipment. Seafloor probes to measure seismicity, which would prove out the design for lunar, Martian, or Europan swarms. Once a DSAC-analogue is ready, clocks good enough for a heliocentric (or sun-earth L4/5) telescope capable of joining the VLBA; or even a swarm of them serving as an antenna (with other engineering difficulties, admittedly, but precise timing would no longer be one of them).
 
Great timeline btw. If only this timeline was real...

Do you have plans for this timeline after Part IV is finished?
Take a breath and occasionally brag when we guessed right? :p In all seriousness, one of the somewhat exhausting things about Eyes in the current Part is that we're very, very close to the real-world state-of-the-art, and to take the timeline any further into a "Part V" would require even more guessing about technical and economic feasibility of things like the longterm competitiveness of various RLVs, alternate methods of access to space, pure-commercial orbital spaceflight, private asteroid mining, fusion (both terrestrial and various fusion-based drive systems for spacecraft), and so on. It'd start crossing the line from "alternate history" into "hard science fiction". While both Workable Goblin and I have enjoyed playing with this world for a while, we're really looking forward to taking a break and seeing what reality has in store in the near future.

P.S. How do you get atmospheric halo to work on blender? Cycles if possible, no compositor.
Heh. That sounds like a nixonshead question if it weren't for the fact that I have on good authority he's quite justifiably incomputercado at the moment. :) Try Google? I think there's some tutorials out there...

Hi, I love this timeline (enough to finally post something), and I'm curious about NASA's current budgetary allotments, in particular, the opportunities for planetary research groups.
I initially missed this in the very interesting comments and watching Workable Goblin reply, but I just noticed now and wanted to say welcome to the board! I'm glad you're enjoying it, and I hope you'll enjoy what we've got lined up through the end of the TL. :)

Anyway, about telescopes:

The FROST-2 telescopes have atomic clocks -- what type of clock? I doubt a high-stability microchip-size clock like the DSAC currently in development would've been ready by 2003, and the less-stable CSAC wasn't first developed until 2004 OTL. Did Artemis-8 send up a large, heavy clock? It's possible that the added time-pressure of needing something for FROST-2 would've led to earlier development of miniaturized atomic clocks, though.
It sounds like you may know a bit more about atomic clocks than either of us. To be honest, we just knew that atomic clocks were in use on GPS sats in the period (which are about 2,000 kg), and we have a similar mass booked on the Artemis missions for this kind of surface-emplaced hardware, so we just figured whatever was in use would fit. Exactly how heavy was "a large, heavy clock" in the pre-CSAC days, and what's the benefit of CSAC over one in mass term? If you want to add some thoughts, we can maybe craft a canon answer to that question. :)
 
there's obviously no life on Venus (well...David Grinspoon might dispute that. But I don't know how serious he's being about that). .

Kind of serious, I would image. I'm actually working on modeling a microbial ecosystem on Venus. The key is you don't focus on the surface, but instead look towards the atmosphere- at about 50km up, you're at 1atm pressure and ~70 degrees C- toasty, but not inhospitably so (well, at least, not to microbes). It's arguably one of the most Earth-like environments in the Solar System. The residency time for particles at that altitude is about 3 months on average, and the air currents are such that you'd circle the planet in the course of a few days or less, alleviating the problems of Venus' ultra-slow rotation. The major obstacle is the lack of water, although there are some potentially metabolic pathways (such as the photo-oxidation of sulfur) that could "fix" water, producing it as a byproduct.
 
If you want to add some thoughts, we can maybe craft a canon answer to that question.

I know there are modern (non-chip) clocks that could be carried in a backpack, however, sadly I am not sure of the history of their development. But that point is moot, because I underestimated the mass budget available for FROST-2, so my worry that a clock would take up most of that mass is no longer founded. So the choice is up to author fiat — a regular clock that's small enough to carry, or a next-gen design that can fit on a motherboard? I'm not actually an expert (just a googler) so I can't be sure whether the development of the CSAC could be sped up, or what it depended on, but with your earlier GPS innovations (unless I misremember) it seems likely enough to have been done in time for FROST-2, and probably even tested by DARPA for a few months before the decision on the telescope's clock would have had to be made. So it might be a bit risky, but that risk would get you somewhere between 70 and 200 kg of mass freed up for other things.

Kind of serious, I would image

One big reason we want to know about Venus's history is to figure out whether it had oceans before the modern greenhouse state. If we can find signs of ancient tectonic plates, then that almost-certainly means ancient oceans (and vice-versa, of course), and if it had oceans for about a billion years it almost certainly had life. That would have meant a diverse array of anaerobes, adapted to the acidic ocean (just like pre-aerobic life on earth), some of which would have likely been thermophilic. As long as the runaway greenhouse happened slowly enough, then the thermophiles would be able to keep up with it. Could they reach the upper atmosphere in time? Ie, would the wind systems capable of carrying ocean spray and dust up that high have developed before the surface would get inhospitable? I don't know, and I think this is just one more of those many questions Venus has for us.
 
Kind of serious, I would image. I'm actually working on modeling a microbial ecosystem on Venus. The key is you don't focus on the surface, but instead look towards the atmosphere- at about 50km up, you're at 1atm pressure and ~70 degrees C- toasty, but not inhospitably so (well, at least, not to microbes). It's arguably one of the most Earth-like environments in the Solar System. The residency time for particles at that altitude is about 3 months on average, and the air currents are such that you'd circle the planet in the course of a few days or less, alleviating the problems of Venus' ultra-slow rotation. The major obstacle is the lack of water, although there are some potentially metabolic pathways (such as the photo-oxidation of sulfur) that could "fix" water, producing it as a byproduct.

If microbes more or less analogous to Terran biochemistry were fixing water from the trace acids diffused in the atmosphere, wouldn't that water show up in Venus's observed spectrum, not to mention being detected by the various probes dropping down to the surface that have been sent?

When I think of "life on Venus" I'm thinking of the admittedly far-fetched possibility of something completely different from Terran water-based CHON molecules in a temperature range comparable to ours, instead being some bizarre thing we wouldn't think of in our environment, probably involving a lot of metal compounds and solutions. And as I admitted I'm stumped for a reliable energy source for their alien metabolism, given the near-perfect equilibrium conditions that prevail on the surface. Also I'd think at least some of the probes that have landed would have somehow or other detected the movement of macroscopic animals, so either the probes happened to land in a really barren region, the life forms move very slowly and don't present strikingly biological shapes to our Terran eyes (factoring in that the video from Venus's surface has probably been very scanty, poor, and brief) or they are very scarce on the ground all across the planet. Also there is the matter of Venus's geology being apparently catastrophic which would pose quite a hurdle for the evolution of any ecological system down there even if a steady source of metabolic energy could be identified.

I agree, if you mean to imply this (and suggest if you don't) that if the known upper atmospheric chemistry does not rule out the possibility of some Terran-analog life forms existing up there, that a probe to investigate those atmospheric layers would be in order, if only the funding could be scraped up. Actually if we go back in this thread there was a Venus atmospheric probe using a balloon* which probably was meant to investigate this possibility among other things. So the ATL and apparently OTL has not neglected to consider the possibility, and in both cases came up with no evidence of such life.

Given that despite resolutions among all space-probe building nations that avoiding contamination of other worlds with Terran organisms would be a good thing, in truth the measures taken to sterilize and keep clean such probes have been questionable, and indeed in at least one case I've read of (I can't remember now if it was US or Soviet) one probe failed after being intensively sterilized, and so another was prepared and launched omitting the more extreme measures and was successful--it seems likely to me that by now, Terran organisms have indeed been introduced to bodies other than Luna; the question is whether we can be sure they'd all have died, and if we later find organisms basically similar to Earth life living in niches like this, whether they are in fact more or less mutated Earth life we introduced with earlier probes or whether they either evolved in parallel there or were introduced from Earth (or some other planet that also colonized Earth) via interplanetary natural panspermia.

It would of course be very interesting to learn of Terran life establishing itself on another planet, even if we could be quite certain it was that.

I've been musing about an ATL where the early Soviet landing probes find and transmit evidence, before they are destroyed by the extreme surface conditions, strongly suggesting macroscopic life forms on the surface, leading to a bit of a probe rush between them and the Americans (and/or European and Japanese partners/rivals) to send more durable probes that verify that yep, Cytherian animals exist (and probably try to eat the probes, which I suppose to their metabolisms are so much poisoned candy):p.

I'd think if anything so macroscopic existed on Mars their existence would imply a transformed atmosphere quite different from OTL; to provide realistically for Cytherian macro-ecologies would probably require that Venus's atmosphere be significantly chemically different too, although perhaps still a hell world by Terran standards, with the CO2 still being by far the dominant component--but perhaps laced with traces of more exotic stuff that can't be sustained in a lifeless environment but is produced by the alien surface life. I suppose although sunlight is much dimmed on the surface, it might still be an intense enough source of lower-entropy energy to provide at least a feeble basis for an ecosystem, given that vulcanism on a Terran scale seems to be ruled out.

Or of course we could go back to one of two threads I tried to start a very long time ago and speculate about an ATL evolution of Venus that could make it lifebearing and also habitable, at least in places and times, for human explorers. The latter bit was kind of the point of my suggestion and it does seem incredibly far-fetched even if we do stuff like spin Venus up to an Earth-like rotational period; moving it outward in orbit is more of a radical change than I liked to suggest although there was a good ATL going for a while about a system where Mars and Venus have changed places. I didn't want that; leaving Venus where it is it seems it would inevitably be too hot to sustain a Terran-style ecosystem on the surface, spin or no spin, moons or no moons. (I didn't want it to have a large moon either, I wanted Venus to continue to look like it does in our sky as we evolved so we could have an ATL parallel to ours until the 1940s or so).

But we could perhaps have a life-bearing Venus where the life is very bizarre by our standards, living in conditions that would kill us instantly, with whatever chemistry those more versed in that science than I am could plausibly suggest could be consistent with its origins and position.

Anyway that's not this ATL clearly, unless the authors find it plausible that something could be living down on the surface given what is known thus far OTL and hence ATL.

IMHO, the ATL is already very good hard science fiction, so by my definitions that's a boundary they don't have to worry about crossing since they are there already.:D But I see the distinction they make; it is one thing to tell stories reusing known scientific facts and proven technologies and quite another to guess at what unknowns may be discovered or developed with what sort of success, and respect they don't want to cross that boundary.

So no Cytherian life here in this ATL, none that will be discovered during its canon run anyway. And that, given the fact Venus has not after all been neglected completely, puts limits on what someone might try to graft on later.

------------
*Insanely, IMHO, using helium instead of hydrogen for the lift gas--the ATL version was based on an OTL probe designed in France that did also use helium, as the authors said "I'd have to ask them why helium"--certainly helium is better to use for testing out the concept in Earth's atmosphere but I'd think substituting hydrogen for the actual probe would have been a straightforward matter.
 
.....
One big reason we want to know about Venus's history is to figure out whether it had oceans before the modern greenhouse state. If we can find signs of ancient tectonic plates, then that almost-certainly means ancient oceans (and vice-versa, of course), and if it had oceans for about a billion years it almost certainly had life. That would have meant a diverse array of anaerobes, adapted to the acidic ocean (just like pre-aerobic life on earth), some of which would have likely been thermophilic. As long as the runaway greenhouse happened slowly enough, then the thermophiles would be able to keep up with it. Could they reach the upper atmosphere in time? Ie, would the wind systems capable of carrying ocean spray and dust up that high have developed before the surface would get inhospitable? I don't know, and I think this is just one more of those many questions Venus has for us.

These are valid questions, though I think if in fact life similar to ours had either evolved on Venus or were introduced by panspermia from a Terran, Martian, cometary or other source did still survive in the upper atmosphere, as per my question in the above post, wouldn't it have produced clearly observable traces inconsistent with what we do know?

I certainly am no expert either but a very long time ago I was a serious science student at a school closely associated with JPL, and I did take a solar system geology class (including asteroids and comets as well as larger bodies) and we did spend some time on the subject of Venus then--this was back in the mid-1980s. From that and online sources since I have some opinions; I thought it was pretty well established already, from isotope ratios, that Venus almost certainly did have substantial amounts of water in the early eons.

Another opinion, that I got from my professor then, was that the reason Venus now has a thick crust that leads (in what I gather is the consensus of modern planetologists) to its catastrophic cycle of hundreds of millions of years of near-inertia on the surface punctuated by episodes of massive eruptions and major recycling of the crust, is precisely the thick atmosphere itself. That is, my teacher believed that if Venus had a much thinner atmosphere, cooler at the surface, then heat flow from a core similar to Earth's would result in a thinner crust more like Earth's and comparable plate tectonics. But wrapped as it were in a thick coat of carbon dioxide, the surface temperatures are so high the flow of heat is impeded, leading to stagnation and the thick crust which means that nowadays anyway the geology is completely different.

Looking at the radar maps made of the surface features, the landscape looks nothing like Earth's, nor is the difference explained by Earthlike tectonics modified by the lack of oceans to enable continental rock to accumulate in clumps.

Combining these opinions together I'd say that early Venus did indeed have a thinner atmosphere, comparable to early Earth's, though obviously somewhat warmer and less protected from the stronger solar wind at its distance from the Sun, probably lacking a magnetic field of any great strength too. (Probably because of its slow rotation, but we don't really know for sure what factors go into making a strong field for a Terran sized body; it could be it did have a stronger field then due to more rapid heat flow, but one not adequate to save most of the hydrogen from its oceans, obviously). So there would have been oceans, or shallow seas anyway, of water, and semi-habitable conditions for Terran type life (of the thermophilic and anaerobic kind anyway) and probably continents and sea beds as well. But once the runaway greenhouse effect asserted itself and orders of magnitude more atmospheric mass was lofted up in the form of carbon in CO2, carrying with it much oxygen that had been in the oceans or in surface rock, the heat gradient was reduced, and the first episode of massive eruption was prepared by a long period of geological stagnation and crust thickening. The eventual eruption era would tend to wipe out the old Terran-style landforms and replace them with the new ridged striations we see today; presumably there have been dozens such episodes since and the remnants of the ancient seabed/continents are fragmentary if not obliterated completely.

Again, I'd like to believe in the remnant of ancient protein-type life still surviving in the upper atmospheric refuge, but alas I'd think we'd know about them by now as they would have made the chemistry and spectra of the upper atmosphere different than they are. In an ATL they might well exist with Venus not looking any different until careful spectrograms were taken, in the 1940s IIRC, and then Venus probes would have confirmed the life-bearing layer or anyway strengthened support for them, leading to probes targeted at exploring that layer--presumably either aerostats or conceivably solar-electric powered airplanes drifting or zooming around respectively. We'd know for sure by 1980 or 1990 at the latest.

Something like that might possibly still exist OTL I suppose, but both more exotic than anything we know from Earth:cool: and also very very marginally. :(
 
If it hasn't been said before in this thread, I'll say it...RIP Leonard Nimoy (aka Spock).

May this TL live long and prosper!!!
 
If it hasn't been said before in this thread, I'll say it...RIP Leonard Nimoy (aka Spock).

May this TL live long and prosper!!!

Yes, his death just seemed too sad to mention.

I have a sister-in-law who shares a similar concern with me regarding Ursula LeGuin, a woman who was already quite mature when she started publishing SF stories in the mid-60s about when I was born. I'm afraid she might have died already and I missed it because she won't be mentioned as prominently as Nimoy was--as it is I didn't happen to notice his demise until the day after.:(

I suppose I could put her on some sort of Internet death watch but that's creepy and I don't want to jinx her.

As for this TL--we are rapidly approaching 2015 ITTL and its days are very sadly numbered, as the authors have just reaffirmed. I will miss it sorely but then, it will have lived its full life and fulfilled its purpose.

And we may console ourselves that though surely we could have hoped for yet more from the impeccable Nimoy and I do hope for a bit more from the venerable Ms LeGuin, they too have pulled more than their share of the load already.

SF is losing some of its classiest luminaries though.:(
 
Good morning, everyone! Nixonshead is unavailable this week due to events which bear no mention but only unspecified congratulations :D. However, he has left in my hands some of his usual fantastic art accompany this week's post, and I'm very pleased to share them with you!

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