Good afternoon, everyone! It's that time once more, and this week we're taking a look at some of the domestic effects of the Christmas Plot. We'll be covering the more general effects on politics and diplomacy in a future culture interlude, but for the moment we're looking at its effects on one particular part of American policy.
Eyes Turned Skyward, Part III: Post #15
As a part of its goal to improve American infrastructure and competitiveness for the 21st century, the Gore administration had proposed shortly after taking office that federal funding should be provided for a major upgrade of the American passenger railroad network, including the construction of a number of high-speed rail lines, much as it proposed funding for telecommunications upgrades, the national highway network, the national electrical distribution network, and other elements of infrastructure considered essential for modern life. At first, like most previous attempts at building an American high-speed rail network, the proposals proceeded slowly, concentrating mostly on paper studies of possible corridors and evaluations of various possible trainsets that could be used in the services. By the end of 1994, an observer could be forgiven for thinking that, like previous attempts to establish high-speed rail in the United States, Gore’s proposal would be going nowhere. With a Congress dominated by spending-concerned Republicans and little progress to date, it seemed that the Gore administration’s proposal would simply and slowly wither on the vine, dying off eventually for lack of attention. Then came the Christmas Plot, and suddenly the idea of passenger rail gained a breath of fresh air.
In light of the near-global shutdown of air transport that followed the attacks, millions of would-be air travelers had their holiday celebrations unpleasantly interrupted by the need to secure alternate transportation. Many chose to simply extend their holidays until air travel resumed, but many more scrambled to secure alternate transportation in the wake of the Christmas Plot, leading to near-record business for passenger rail, intercity buses, rental cars, and other forms of transportation. In the United States, many who had never before ridden a train had their first taste of Amtrak’s service. Although most outside of the Northeast Corridor were less than pleased with the experience, a few fell in love with the idea of traveling by rail, while many on the Northeast Corridor itself were attracted to the relative convenience of traveling by rail. Together, these meant that the huge spike in passenger figures experienced by Amtrak after the Christmas Plot was not entirely transitory, but followed by modestly improved ridership levels system-wide, especially on the relatively higher-quality Northeast Corridor routes.
As intelligence began to develop about the source of the attacks, it became apparent that much of the funding for the Christmas Plot had had its origins in the oil industry of Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. Combined with Gore’s interest in environmental matters, this provided the impetus for perhaps the most important policy initiative the Gore administration carried out during their years in office. During an extraordinary speech to a joint session of Congress in early March 1995, President Gore called for a national effort to eliminate the nation’s dependence on foreign supplies of oil, both by reducing energy use and by actively developing alternative and non-fossil energy sources, such as solar, nuclear, and wind power. Passenger rail, as an alternative to both driving and flying, was prominently mentioned in his speech, which called for active development of the American passenger rail network to standards comparable to systems in Europe and Japan, where passenger rail carried significant shares of intercity traffic.
In the wake of Gore’s announcement, Amtrak immediately excavated the studies it had been conducting over the past year and a half since his inauguration, identifying the routes which seemed most amenable to high-speed rail. Topping the list, as always, was the heavily trafficked Northeast Corridor, Amtrak’s busiest and most profitable line, and the only one where it owned a significant portion of the physical infrastructure. Following it in the list were a system centered on the Chicago metroplex and serving most of the Midwest, probably the second most densely populated region of the country; a system serving the Texas Triangle; a California system tying together the southern half of the state from San Francisco and Sacramento to Los Angeles and San Diego; a Florida system connecting Tampa, Orlando, and Miami; and a Pacific Northwest system connecting Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver. Upgrades to the Keystone Corridor and Empire Corridor routes connecting Pittsburgh and Buffalo with Philadelphia and New York City, respectively, were also considered. Aside from the Northeast Corridor, all of the proposed routes had the severe disadvantage of having relatively poorly developed passenger infrastructure and requiring significant upgrades to reach high-speed rail status. Even the Northeast Corridor would need major improvements to host Japanese or European quality service.
The eventual Amtrak strategic plan, outlined in a late 1995 white paper titled
America’s 21st Century Passenger Rail System envisioned not only developing these routes into high-speed rail, but also significant improvements and upgrades of Amtrak’s operations and rolling stock. Building on the abortive Viewliner program of the late 1980s, the remaining “Heritage Fleet” rolling stock used by Amtrak, much of it dating back to the 1950s, would be replaced by greatly improved modern rolling stock, while a new block of Superliners and Genesis locomotives would be ordered to enable what Amtrak called “Phase I high-speed service”. Modifications would be made to the newer versions to enable running at up to 110 miles per hour, significantly faster than most Amtrak services could reach but still far short of true high-speed rail. Meanwhile, improvements would be made to the identified non-Northeast Corridor trackage to allow Phase I services to operate by 2010, something was not only far cheaper than leaping directly to high-speed but also beneficial to trains which could never run high-speed, such as the
Coast Starlight. At the same time, significant upgrades would be made to the Northeast Corridor. While it often fell short of even Phase I standards, with many grade crossings, low-quality catenaries, excessively tight turns, and other problems, it was still ahead of the rest of Amtrak’s network, and the plan was to jump it directly to what Amtrak termed “Phase II” service by 2010, with peak sustained speeds of 150 miles per hour. After 2010, the Phase I corridors would be upgraded to Phase II service, possibly building off of the technology and designs developed for the Northeast Corridor, while the Northeast Corridor itself would be upgraded to a notional “Phase III” standard, with peak speeds in excess of 200 miles per hour, making it one of the fastest rail routes on the planet.
Unfortunately, despite the unusual political conditions created by the Christmas Plot, such a wide-ranging and ambitious plan was doomed to failure. The upgrades needed for the entire plan would require several hundred billion dollars from a Congress dominated by fiscal conservatives who had always been skeptical of the value of a passenger service requiring constant subsidies from the federal government. No matter that the expense would be spread over fifteen or more years, or that many of the improvements projected were actually to freight railroads, which had long been highly profitable; the full plan was simply a non-starter. Nevertheless, the terrorist attacks and Gore’s call for the United States to be energy-independent by 2015 meant that the plan did not simply disappear into the legislative process, but was amended, repeatedly, by those more interested in balanced budgets than passenger rail.
The resulting allocations in the FY 1996 budget did provide many of the things that Amtrak had asked for. Funding was provided for a Viewliner II block to replace all remaining Heritage Fleet rolling stock; additionally, the Superliner III cars and Genesis II locomotives needed for the expected Phase I developments were paid for.[1] Furthermore, a series of significant upgrades would be made to the Northeast Corridor and surrounding trackage. Most importantly, freight traffic would be completely removed from the Corridor, while infrastructure would be built to divert commuter trains from heavily congested areas like Penn Station.[2] Poor-quality electrical infrastructure would be replaced and the entire route electrified, with the long-term goal of upgrading the Corridor to a common 25 kV, 60 Hz operating frequency standard, allowing a significant reduction in ongoing costs.[3] Finally, grade crossings along the entire route would be eliminated and many curves straightened, allowing higher speeds. However, the more ambitious plans of developing multiple Phase I and Phase II networks were shot down; only California (where the state was not only already paying for comparable upgrades in some areas, but had indicated a willingness to assist in funding further Phase I level lines) and the Chicago hub area would be developed to Phase I standards, along with small parts of the Empire and Keystone Corridors. Additionally, the Northeast Corridor would not be upgraded to a full Phase II corridor, but instead to what was called a “Phase I+” corridor, with top speeds of only about 125 miles per hour instead of the previously planned 150.[4] This also meant that no expensive new trainsets would need to be developed to provide “high-speed” service; the existing AEM-7s with Amfleet carriages were perfectly capable of operating at 125 miles per hour and already did so on some stretches of trackage.
Although far less than Amtrak or railfans had hoped for, the FY 1996 budget did represent a massive sea change from the neglect and sometimes outright hostility displayed towards passenger rail during previous Congresses. While still a red-headed stepchild compared to road or air transport, Amtrak was for the first time in years receiving significant attention, funding, and support to improve its services from the poor-quality mess they previously had been to a high-quality system on par with regular passenger services anywhere in the world.
[1]: Essentially, because Phase I services target the 100-110 mph peak speed bracket, Amtrak decides that it makes more sense to use rolling stock essentially common with its existing fleet to implement it, to save money for the track upgrades, which are both more expensive and more important.
Note that the OTL California Cars (not quite the same as the Superliner IIIs) and the second block of Genesis locomotives (ordered about this time OTL) are perfectly capable of operating at those speeds.
[2]: Things like Access to the Region's Core, for instance. The idea is to ensure that most of the NEC is free to just run Amtrak trains, rather than a mix of commuter, Amtrak, and freight. So most of the upgrades to the NEC are for capacity rather than speed per se, although there are some areas where that implies dramatically improved speed limits.
[3]: Presently, the NEC uses two electrification systems; one, north of New York, of 25 kV 60 Hz AC (the global standard, insofar as such as thing exists), and the other, south of New York, of 12 kV 25 Hz AC. To be fair to Amtrak, the latter system was constructed by Penn in the early part of the century when they could not have anticipated that 60 Hz power would become dominant and there were certain technical advantages to 25 Hz. They simply haven't had the money to upgrade the system when it works reasonably well (as shown by Acela), if not quite as well as might be hoped (also shown by Acela: it needs two power cars to pull a relatively short trainset compared to similar services in Europe, not helped by the infamous Tier II crash standards!).
Here, the additional cash they have means they plan to upgrade the entire corridor, so modifying the distribution system at the same time makes sense; it means they can use the same hardware on all sections of the line and simplify their operations and locomotives.
[4]: You might note that this is slower than the top speeds on the Corridor IOTL, and in fact is identical to the top speeds achieved in the 1980s. However, the point behind the Phase X corridors is that essentially the
whole thing is upgraded to permit operations at those speeds, rather than limited areas (which was and is notably not the case OTL, with severe speed restrictions in some areas--for instance, between Philadelphia and Penn Station Acela’s average speed OTL is 76 miles per hour). Although obviously some areas cannot reasonably be upgraded to operate at high speeds, where possible they are. So by the time this particular capital improvement plan is complete around 2010, running speeds for the regular trains are more or less comparable to present Acela speeds.
Many thanks to Devvy for providing helpful comments and suggestions for this post. Do check out his timeline
Amtrak: The Road to Recovery if you have the chance.
