Explosion heard around the world... Or Elser succeeds

One should bear in mind, that the way the Wehrmacht would handle a war with Soviet Russia would most probably be completely different from OTL.

Its only action would have been the campaign in Poland; which was a successful Blitzkrieg. However, OTL's evaluation of the three-week-victory assessed that this was rather due to the weak Polish equipment, the general superiority of the German soldier and that the German starting positions were favourable.

That's how the designs for a campaign in the West had for months been merely an update on the Schlieffen-plan. Manstein's innovative (and risky) ideas would have been shelved if not by coincidence.

Additionally, the Wehrmacht wouldn't have been in "victory-disease-mode" after the campaigns in Scandinavia, Benelux/France and on the Balkans.

Thus, any planning for an Eastern theatre would probably look more closely like WW1. Limited operational scope, a strategy based on attrition vs the Red Army, a good care concerning the realities of logistics.

There is also a chance that the treatment of the nations on occupied ground and especially of the POWs would be fundamentally different, i.e. of course better (worse is hardly possible). Of course, Göring's Germany wouldn't bring them democracy....but fascist puppet regimes closely tied to Berlin. Would people like it? Not enthusiastically, but it might at least be regarded as better than Stalinism, at least in the short- and mediuim run. If the people would know OTL....they'd love their fate.
You make some good points here.
 
Berlin, OKH, May 16th

The meeting held in the OKH was attended by Keitel, Jodl, Halder, Brauchitsch, General Thomas, General Warlimont, von Paulus, as well as operational commanders of the former Army Groups A, B and C, von Leeb, von Bock and von Rundstedt. The Luftwaffe was represented by Jeschonnek as the Chief of OHL. Head of Fremde Heere Ost was also present, representing Abwehr.

Punctually at 08:00, Brauchitsch started the meeting by reading the statement from Goering in which the President stipulated the strategic objective of the plan they were working on - namely, to defeat the Soviet Union on its western borders and remove the threat of direct invasion of the territory of Germany or her East European allies by the Soviet armed forces. Goering authorized Brauchitsch to take all steps necessary to secure this objective by employing all the military forces of the Wehrmacht and in cooperation with the German allies.

Thus he opened a discussion, which lasted until lunch time, with refreshments and food brought in and with aides and clerical staff bringing maps and estimates from various departments.

By the end of the day, all present agreed on the plan to engage the Red Army in North, through East Prussia, preferably drawing the Soviet forces to attack and defeating them in detail and South in cooperation with Romanian and Hungarian allies, thus outflanking the Red Army positions in the central part of the front, threatening them with encirclement and annihilation.

Fremde Heere Ost highlighted the possible role of Ukrainian insurgents in engaging the Soviet forces throughout the Ukraine and possibility of carving out an independent Ukrainian state, governed by a regime sharing the German ideological view.

Besides, Fremde Heere Ost report pointed out that the Baltic states were not, in fact, occupied but merely garrisoned by the limited number of Red Army forces deployed to a few bases. The report suggested that, in principle, it should be possible to advance through the three buffer states rapidly, expel the Red Army and establish advanced positions near Leningrad and threaten the entire length of the central front with a massive flanking attack. Provided, of course, that sufficient number of divisions were available. The logistic constraints in Baltic countries were few, the railway gauge was the same, unlike mainland Soviet Union and resupply would be possible from the Baltic Sea.

Von Paulus, in his role of quartermaster of the Heer had little to add. He merely expressed grave doubts of logistic sustainability of a deep penetration into Soviet territory. Backed by the report from his staff, he recommended the initial advance be no deeper than 200 km, to be followed by another staged advance once the situation was favorable. While it was possible to deploy up to two armies to East Prussia, tasked with the initial advance, and expand it by another army consisting of three to four corps, it would be very difficult to deploy more than one army to the Romanian front. The primary limitation here was the availability of the railways.

By dinner time, von Brauchitsch called the end, ordered the aide who kept notes of the meeting to draft a summary and present it to him and the others in the morning and dismissed the exhausted officers. They were to reconvene at 1000h the following morning and give final remarks to the draft conclusion. Colonel Lossberg of the OKW was tasked with making an initial study along the lines discussed on the meeting and present it in a week.

The meeting also touched the issue of deployment of forces to Turkey, but that was deemed unfeasible at this stage. OKL offered to prepare deployment of a single Fliegerkorps to Turkey, but indicated it would take up to a month before they reached full efficiency.

Meanwhile, in Moscow, von Schulenburg handed a note containing an ultimatum to Molotov. In it, the German government demanded the Soviet Union to cease with unwarranted aggression against the Republic of Turkey and Kingdom of Romania, withdraw the forces from their territories within 48 hours or face grave consequences.

Same day, London

Foreign Office was the first to receive any notice of German intentions. And they received it directly from the German ambassador, no less. Lord Halifax read the note, trying to control his emotions. As soon as he finished rereading it, he thanked the ambassador and immediately set off to Downing Street 10, to discuss it with the Prime Minister.

Soviet advances

In the meantime, the Red Army continued its march into Iran, reaching the city of Marand. The city was the first large urban settlement in the border region and advance elements of the Red Army encountered stiff resistance from the regiment of Iran Army. The vanguard retreated from contact and after clumsily executed attempt to outflank the Iranians, settled in order to await artillery support. A cavalry battalion conducted reconnaissance in force in order to determine where the Iranian lines were. Although suffering casualties in this attempt, the battalion returned and reported that the Iranian regiment held firmly inside the buildings and houses and would require a deliberate assault to drive them out and capture the town.

The cavalry then proceeded to the east and avoided the city, in order to continue to the south. Facing no opposition, the troopers advanced through a wooded area steadily and by nightfall reached another town. They stopped there to await the infantry.

Soviet advance into Turkey faced stiff opposition, supported by naval fire from the pair of Italian cruisers, that steamed hastily across the Black Sea. Although the Soviet advance was stopped along its right flank, their left flank managed to crush the light Turkish forces and outflank the Turkish defenders, who retreated in order to avoid encirclement. As the Red Army advanced further, the entire front came into range of naval fire and an Italian battleship joined the naval support. The Turkish army deployed their sole mechanized formation to this front and the situation was temporarily stabilized, at least until the Soviets brought the artillery.

Red Army advance into southern direction came to a halt as they encountered very difficult terrain and ambushes the Turks laid in every passage. Their losses steadily mounted and at night the Soviet formations were frequently sniped at from all directions by lone Turkish troops. The Turks also faced problems in their rear areas as the Red Air Force dropped NKVD teams with weapons and supplies and incited the Kurd guerillas to rebel and engage the Turkish units in the rear areas. The combat was ferocious and no side felt entirely secure. Soviet cavalry roamed in the countryside, while the Turkish units systematically raided village after village of the Kurds and deported all inhabitants to the internment camps on the Mediterranean coast. The Kurds, on the other hand, led by their Soviet handlers, stroke randomly at Turkish units marching from the western Turkey and mining railroads and roads leading to the battle area.
 
Good to see the German army isn't planning mass executions and instead are talking about recruiting the local population to fight against Stalin.
A little self serving commonsense can go a long way here.
 
The Russian advance in Romania has turned into a slog, the new front opening in Turkey and depending on just how much of Soviet oil production has been affected by Operation Pike all leaves one question. How close is the the Russian army to the end of it's logistical thread?
 
At the speed of advance Shaby is reporting and taking into account the lack of armour battles and excessive manoevres they easily have another two weeks...
 
Very good updates Shaby but now you have to be more specific about the German army order of battle against USSR;USSR OTL had 205 divisions at its western borders in a defensive array(Alan Clark:"Barbarossa") that the German army and allies would not be able to bite with north-south pincers due to great distances and lack of means...
 
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At the speed of advance Shaby is reporting and taking into account the lack of armour battles and excessive manoevres they easily have another two weeks...

I was wondering because of the possibility the Russian offensives could grind to a halt due to lack of fuel. Fuel oil for ships and gasoline for trucks being the critical factors. If that should come to pass at about the same time as the deadline of the German ultimatum it's very possible that Stalin could be forced to play for time. Basically Russia blinks, delaying direct war with Germany until the oil infrastructure can be rebuilt.
 
The question of infrastructure is a mid-term problem;meanwhile the question rests on the USSR oil armed forces reserves;USSR,as a major oil producer should
have at least six months oil reserves for its armed forces.If I remember well by orders of Stalin great reserves had been created in underground deposits in western Siberia...
 
Moscow, two hours after ultimatum

The visit of the German ambassador to Molotov and the Foreign Ministry, left the building in the state of chaos. Molotov immediately summoned Beria and general Proskurov, head of GRU. After a quick conference, the two intelligence services produced written reports on the German forces and the danger they pose to the Western USSR.

Molotov took it to Stalin personally. The meeting with Stalin took only a quarter of an hour. Molotov returned from it with directive to try to stall the Germans with offer of negotiations. STAVKA was ordered to speed up operations in Turkey as fast as possible. Meanwhile, Turkish ambassador offered a cessation of hostilities if Turkey would close off the straights to the foreign navies.

Bulgarian ambassador in Moscow was also invited and asked to transmit the Soviet offer to Romanians of negotiation towards the cessation of hostilities and offer of preliminary cease fire on existing lines.

Paris

Government in Paris was deeply divided over recent events on the European scene. The German strengthening of ties with Eastern European countries was universally seen as threatening to the long term security of France. However, the only logical counterbalance was the Soviet Union, viewed with almost equal amounts of suspicion by the representatives of right and center and supported by the military. While the communist threat in the country has been managed by vigorous action and occasionally harsh measures, the threat to the French Empire was all too real. Already in Syria communist agitation has found fertile ground as the Soviet troops advanced through Turkey. The Army was scrambling to find enough troops to deploy in Syria and to keep the situation under control. The British were forming an army under Maitland Wilson, but they faced problems with availability of forces, as well.

After several days of discussions, no clear policy or strategy was emerging. A few vocal calls were heard to make peace with the Soviets, to enable them to face the Germans and hope that the two would destroy each other, but they were overwhelmed with concerns that the Germans could overwhelm the Soviets and then turn on the French or even come to terms with the Soviets and divide the French empire together. No one was too willing to lend much credence to the statement of the German ambassador, made in connection with the ultimatum, that Germany had no desire to see France weakened or her empire taken away. Finally, the French decided to consult their British allies and come to a common decision.

Berlin

Goering felt prepared to give a speech on the radio. As always, before important public speeches he felt a bit nervous, however, for the past few months he refrained from using his pills. He knew he had to remain clearheaded and that it was too dangerous to let his guard down. While the most dangerous opposition has been taking care of, there were still a few people out there who would like to see him go and replace him. Anyway, he was trying hard to overcome his addiction and it was working for him.

His speech was not long and in it he announced that the Soviet Union was now threatening the allies of Germany and that the challenge issued by the Bolshevists will be answered by Germany with full force unless they reconsider. He called on all the Germans to be prepared for the hard struggle against a foe that will not give any quarter. In the end, Goering stated that Germany and her allies were prepared for full fight, but will leave one last chance for the Soviet leaders to stop their plans of world domination. European people do not want to have communism and will fight to protect themselves from it and furthermore, strive to liberate those living under its domination should the Soviets challenge them.

Finishing this speech with "Heil Deutshcland", Goering moved away from the microphone and drank a glass of water. He thought the speech was very clever and made a mental note to congratulate Funk and Neurath for formulating it. It was great for foreigners and served its purpose for motivating the people in Germany. Of course, under actual wartime conditions, some promises would have to be delayed. Goering just hoped the Soviets would not back down. His instincts told him this was an excellent opportunity.
 
As the French and British are actively fighting the Russians on the Crimean Peninsular, backing out now that others are threatend would Imo send the wrong signal diplomaticaly.
It would sound as if the French and British are "good weather friends"... not something they would want. And it could cost them even more support in countries they vie for influence in. (*hint* Balcans *hint*)

Also to consider is that Germany now has somewhat rebuild its international reputation. Yes there will still be doubts. But if they back the new alliance, they stand to gain much. At a high cost, but still. So how would it look for others if they (FR and GB) now back down and Germany is holding the "flag of freedom" ;)...
 
Carinhall, Night

The excitement of the previous day wore Goering down. Neurath reported that the Bolsheviks were trying some last ditch effort to stall the Germans and Goering ordered him to be relentless. Stalin was not to be let off the hook. By late afternoon, he decided to go home and relax a bit. After having a dinner and drinks with his wife, he still felt anxious. In the end he decided to pass time running his rail set. By midnight he was thoroughly enjoying himself and finally retreated to bed an hour after midnight.

Washington, D.C.

The new developments in regards to the German ultimatum to the USSR and the reports of the Soviet advances in the Middle East did not surprise the US government. The Soviets were deemed a threat to world peace for a few months now and they have been now confronted with the attack from all sides. Roosevelt and his staff hoped that the situation would not merit direct US involvement in the war.

Morning the next day, London

Chamberlain was in no better mood today than he was yesterday. The escalation of the crisis in Europe and the seemingly impending and inevitable German-Soviet war led him to despair. While he hated the Communists and all they stood for, he was almost equally distrustful of the Germans and their cause. His cabinet gave the Germans a second chance and they seemed to be worth it. He has met with Goering in The Haague, as did Halifax and the man at least superficially seemed more trustworthy than Hitler. His words were followed by deeds and by now, the British Prime Minister was convinced the Germans were not plotting at world domination (at least not anymore). They merely needed to feel secure against the Soviet Union. And could he really blame them for that?

Added to his worries were the French, who traditionally viewed strong Germany as an existential threat to their nation. He would have to meet with Daladier and the French cabinet and put some sense in their brains.

Yesterday, Chamberlain was toying with a notion of making an official invitation for the German President and his Chancellor to visit London and this morning he decided to go through with it. He summoned Halifax to discuss this idea and half an hour later, they agreed to contact the German ambassador in London and try to arrange a meeting. The two leaders had much they needed to talk about, the Soviet Union, the commercial relations between the two countries being the most prominent issues. The entire endeavor was designated 'Operation Y' in tribute to the Prime Minister pre-war visits to Berchtesgaden.

May 18th, Moscow

The Japanese envoy was hurriedly taken off his train carriage in Sverdlovsk and put on the airplane. He arrived in Moscow, exhausted from the flight, in the late hours of the previous night. While thankful for the shortening of his trip, he was wondering what caused such rush to get him to Moscow.

Only upon reaching the Japanese embassy did he learn why his delegation was brought from the Urals in such a hurry.

'Well, we can now pay the Germans in kind for what they did to us. I'd love to see the look on their face.' thought Matsuoka. The Japanese felt that the German Non-Aggression pact with the USSR has been a direct affront to them. Subsequent alignment of Germany on the side of the Chinese and the Western powers has added an insult to an injury and, proud as all Asians were, the Japanese were seeking to exact a vengeance on the Germans. If, to achieve this, they had to make a deal with the Soviets, then so be it.

On the morning of 18th May, with a brilliant Sun shined upon the Red square, Matsuoka was received by Molotov and Stalin. They started an official part of their negotiations.

Four and a half hours and a lunch later, the result was contained within the paper entitled "Treaty of friendship and non-aggression between the Union of Soviet Socialists Republics and the Empire of Japan". The text of the treaty was in itself brief and contained only three articles. However, the annex to article 2., which stipulated dealing with all outstanding problems between the two signatories in friendly and diplomatic manner, was the essence of the treaty.

In it, the two sides agreed to renounce any ambition to each other respective territory and also divided China in two spheres. The Soviets would control the North-Western part, excluding Manchukuo (also duly recognized by the Soviet government) while the Japanese would control the rest through 'helping establish the government that would be more closely aligned with the interests of the Asian peoples'. The exact formulation was suggested by the Soviet in order to enable them to present the treaty as part of the anti-colonial struggle.

The protocol of the meeting also stipulated establishing a mutual trade agreement, to be agreed upon by the responsible ministries of the two governments. The protocol only indicated the main areas of cooperation as heavy industry, naval engineering and raw materials, leaving the exact conditions of cooperation to experts.

The day ended with a banquet on the grounds of the Japanese embassy. The next morning, Matsuoka tried very hard to remember the events following 5th toast to his Imperial Majesty Showa.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
I guess Märklin.

Anyway, I don't think the Japanese are jumping into the wrong boat. They will help the Soviets, sure, but don't declare war themselves.
 
I guess Märklin.

Anyway, I don't think the Japanese are jumping into the wrong boat. They will help the Soviets, sure, but don't declare war themselves.
Your probably right but if the USSR goes down hard (and its starting to look that way) Japan has no real potential allies left.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
Japan has no ally atm as well. I think they know it and will not do much more. Later, well, later is later and one has to see.
 
I think with Japan siding with the SU we know the good guys now ;) Japans conflicht with the US and UK is almost inevitable now´, so the enemy of my enemy is my friend... i.e. Germany will be allied to the Entennte powers ;)
 
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