What scenario, with a POD after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, could have led to a major European War between the US and a major European nation between 1991 and now? I don't want that nation to be the Soviet Union. I want the war to come after the fall of the Communist governments in Europe.
European War in the 1990s
- Thread starter Beck Reilly
- Start date
Raymann
Banned
The best I can think of is Germany renouncing the Treaty of Warsaw where they gave up on getting their land back the Soviets gave to Poland after WWII. I think something like 15 million ethnic Germans were expelled from the East and 2 million of them died. All the Germans would have to do is say the Soviets forced them to accept that treaty in order for them to save some of their people still in Poland.
Basically have a militant Germany again but I don't know what that would do to eastern europe or NATO. Mabye some of the soviet republics decide that being in a democratic Russia is better then having to go at it alone next to Germany? Ukraine voted to leave Russia but a substantial percent wanted to stay mostly becasue of a huge number a native Russians but also because of the security cooperation offered.
Anyways, Germany couldn't go far. They would be voted down in the UN and while the US might give the UN the finger, they would still demand a vote in the regions of Poland the Germans want. That vote would fail because even though they used to be all German, they all got kicked out or killed. If the Germans press on, then they're out of NATO for sure but whether or not they'll attack Poland I don't know. There's no way Poland can hold them off and Russia has its own problems to worry about now that the Warsaw Pact is dissolved.
While I'm thinking about it, dosen't Solvika and the Ukraine also have boundry disputes with Poland. Oh! dosen't Russia have a city in Poland too? Man I need to read a map. Anyway, i'm thinking Germany could take what it wants from Poland and then go on the defensive. No country in Europe could take it back by itself unless the US gets involved and we have Iraq to worry about.
Basically have a militant Germany again but I don't know what that would do to eastern europe or NATO. Mabye some of the soviet republics decide that being in a democratic Russia is better then having to go at it alone next to Germany? Ukraine voted to leave Russia but a substantial percent wanted to stay mostly becasue of a huge number a native Russians but also because of the security cooperation offered.
Anyways, Germany couldn't go far. They would be voted down in the UN and while the US might give the UN the finger, they would still demand a vote in the regions of Poland the Germans want. That vote would fail because even though they used to be all German, they all got kicked out or killed. If the Germans press on, then they're out of NATO for sure but whether or not they'll attack Poland I don't know. There's no way Poland can hold them off and Russia has its own problems to worry about now that the Warsaw Pact is dissolved.
While I'm thinking about it, dosen't Solvika and the Ukraine also have boundry disputes with Poland. Oh! dosen't Russia have a city in Poland too? Man I need to read a map. Anyway, i'm thinking Germany could take what it wants from Poland and then go on the defensive. No country in Europe could take it back by itself unless the US gets involved and we have Iraq to worry about.
Brilliantlight
Banned
Raymann said:
Almost a ASBs scenario, the Germans aren't nearly agressive enough anymore and there are US troops in Germany and Italy. Germany vs the US is not a fight anymore, the Germans would be crushed.
If you want a war in Europe, you first have to break apart NATO. How do you do that? A trade war, maybe?
Brilliantlight
Banned
cwf1701 said:
I have a feeling that Chirac is not totally insane and certainly not the entire French government.
That sounds like a tough nut. I can't see the U.S. having any critical interest that would send them to war with a major European power. Marching the Germans off to war (again) like some sort of lemmings doesn't wash. Especially given the political and social evolution that nation has under gone . Even if the US had opposed reunification, what really could Germans do about it?
I could see the US taking on one of the newly indpendent Soviet republics that had inherited some of the old USSR's nuclear assets and then had begun to shop the things around or something equally provocative. That in turn could develop into a punch up with Russia (yeah, I know, not part of the game).
I could see the US taking on one of the newly indpendent Soviet republics that had inherited some of the old USSR's nuclear assets and then had begun to shop the things around or something equally provocative. That in turn could develop into a punch up with Russia (yeah, I know, not part of the game).
cwf1701 said:
I think you're mnisreading the policies of France and Germany. Deploying combat troops to the area would not only not further their agenda (they were not interested particularly in upholding Saddam Hussein's regime), itv would be directly opposed to their intent. A cornerstone of modern European policy is the refutation of war as a means of policy, and however hypocritical most politicians tend to be about the motivations and high ideals underlying this tenet (and all other aspects of their policies), they believe in it. You just don't get European troops deployed without a very good reason.
That is also why I would argue that any 'major' (which I read to mean bigger than the Balkans, which is pretty big) war would need divergence points well ahead of the 1990s. If the EU had somehow stalled on inception a less integrated. less open-market, poorer and more nationalistic Europe could be a candidate. Today, I don't think your average German could imagine going to war with France, Italy, or Spain any more than your average New Yorker could going to war with Mississippi. (come to think of it, perhaps even less...)
Is it possible you can't realize this HAS ALREADY HAPPENED?
There HAS benne a war between the US and a European nation - Yugoslavia.
I was personally in favour of this war, but fiercely adverse to bombings outside Kosovo. I would prefer an outright land war in Kosovo AND NOT BEYOND, b/c Kosovo Albanians' autonomy and protection was the sole legitimate reason to fight.
There HAS benne a war between the US and a European nation - Yugoslavia.
I was personally in favour of this war, but fiercely adverse to bombings outside Kosovo. I would prefer an outright land war in Kosovo AND NOT BEYOND, b/c Kosovo Albanians' autonomy and protection was the sole legitimate reason to fight.
Xen
Banned
What about that incident with Russia and Norway? Norway launched a rocket and it flew over Russian Air Space, do to incompetence in the Russian government the military wasnt alerted and thought they were under attack and was getting ready to launch nukes to the west. Fortunatley the Russian military was stopped by someone in the government and alerted of the rocket's purpose.
----or----
During the Kosovo War Russia sends troops in to protect Serbia and Milosivic. The US demands Milosivic be turned over which Yeltsin refuses, during a USAF strike several Russian soldiers are killed and Russia launches an attack against American fighters.
The US alliance would be NATO
The Russians might be allied with Belarus, and the Ukraine, I doubt too many other people will ally with Russia
----or----
During the Kosovo War Russia sends troops in to protect Serbia and Milosivic. The US demands Milosivic be turned over which Yeltsin refuses, during a USAF strike several Russian soldiers are killed and Russia launches an attack against American fighters.
The US alliance would be NATO
The Russians might be allied with Belarus, and the Ukraine, I doubt too many other people will ally with Russia
Major Eastern European War.
Or how about this scenario. It might be somewhat implausable, but it's the best i can do. When Gorbachev starts to loose his grip on the power, hardliners attempt a coup and they succeed but barely. Many countries in Eastern Block have attempted armed rebellions and their forces had a mini civil war with stationed Soviet troops. Even though all of them failed, it greatly destabilized USSR. So much in fact that opposition of Yeltsin and others seized power from hardliners in 1992 with popular suport. Due to huge problems at home, all of USSR's troops left Eastern Europe and went home. Also Soviet Union broke up in Early 1993.
This is when the war starts ITTL.
Early 1993. Still feeling the effects of previous few years, several border conflicts spring up. Ukraine and Lithuania have border issues with Poland and Belarus, so border skirmishes somehow turn intomajor action. Eventually, Checkoslovakia joins Ukraine and Lithuania against Poland. Latvia, being helped out by Lithuanias against Russia, declare their support for them against Belorus. Moldavia starts thinking about joining Romania so civil war starts up between Russian and Moldavian parts, as OTL. This time, Ukraine declares their support for Russian part while Romania does same for Moldavans. Hungary, feeling wronged by Romania after WW1, attackes them, claiming protection of ethnic Hungarians in Carpathians (somewhat rightly so). At the same time Yugoslavia breaks up, with Serbia and Macedonia finding support in Ukraine( both Orthodox), Hungary and Checkoslovakia, while Croatia allies with Poland(both Catholics) and Albania(both have a bone to pick with Serbia).
By the time all this is done, you have a MAJOR European war. It may seem implausible to us, but i'm sure nobody thought that WW2 was pausible after WW1.
P.S. Somewhat ASB-ish, but have Eastern Germany declare war on Poland. This could happen if communists brutally stay in power.
Or how about this scenario. It might be somewhat implausable, but it's the best i can do. When Gorbachev starts to loose his grip on the power, hardliners attempt a coup and they succeed but barely. Many countries in Eastern Block have attempted armed rebellions and their forces had a mini civil war with stationed Soviet troops. Even though all of them failed, it greatly destabilized USSR. So much in fact that opposition of Yeltsin and others seized power from hardliners in 1992 with popular suport. Due to huge problems at home, all of USSR's troops left Eastern Europe and went home. Also Soviet Union broke up in Early 1993.
This is when the war starts ITTL.
Early 1993. Still feeling the effects of previous few years, several border conflicts spring up. Ukraine and Lithuania have border issues with Poland and Belarus, so border skirmishes somehow turn intomajor action. Eventually, Checkoslovakia joins Ukraine and Lithuania against Poland. Latvia, being helped out by Lithuanias against Russia, declare their support for them against Belorus. Moldavia starts thinking about joining Romania so civil war starts up between Russian and Moldavian parts, as OTL. This time, Ukraine declares their support for Russian part while Romania does same for Moldavans. Hungary, feeling wronged by Romania after WW1, attackes them, claiming protection of ethnic Hungarians in Carpathians (somewhat rightly so). At the same time Yugoslavia breaks up, with Serbia and Macedonia finding support in Ukraine( both Orthodox), Hungary and Checkoslovakia, while Croatia allies with Poland(both Catholics) and Albania(both have a bone to pick with Serbia).
By the time all this is done, you have a MAJOR European war. It may seem implausible to us, but i'm sure nobody thought that WW2 was pausible after WW1.
P.S. Somewhat ASB-ish, but have Eastern Germany declare war on Poland. This could happen if communists brutally stay in power.
basileus said:
I mean a war with major nations with large, conventional armies. There should be at least one country on each side with a population great than 25 million.
More, earlier French help to Saddam
Early, but small POD with no effect on fall of Communism : France decides to take a stronger anti-Israel and pro-Iraq stand after Israel bombs the reactor in 1981. No significant change to OTL in Europe but France begins to supply Iraq with better weaponry and technical support, interfering more in Iran-Iraq war and getting enhanced access to Iraqi oil. France also begins to more vigorously condemn Israel, esp. the Lebanon incursion/occupation, including campaigning for an EU embargo. Both enhance France's visibility in the world and Paris gains significant support in the EU (from the Benelux and Nordic countries, say). The US winks at the first move for a time but not the second. Iraq still demands compensation from other Arab states for fighting off the Aryan invader and attacks Kuwait sometime after war ends with Iran. Only now it has had essentially a decade of very close ties with France . . .
Alternately, push the 1990 Iraq invasion of Kuwait back a few years, allowing France to jump in post fall of Communism in Europe. The France-Iraq tie isn't as strong but the US-led expeditionary force suffers more losses than in OTL due to French aid to Iraq and discovers a good deal of French weaponry. Franco-American relations head south, with more and more of Europe forced over time to choose one side or the other on a variety of issues. Starting around 1997, stronger anti-Jewish bigotry in France for any of several reasons lead to open attacks on Jews by French and resident immigrant Muslims, which the authorities ignore. By the time of the hotly contested 2000 US Presidential campaign, candidates are falling all over each other demanding action against French "racism." American (self-)righteous indignation does not sit well with much of the EU, especially those with growing Muslim populations of their own. In 2001, Muslim terrorists launch a deadly attack on American civilians. Not only does a block of the EU refuse to cooperate with any American military retaliation, it turns out some of the Muslims had been living in France . . .
Picking on France in a way but I can't see any other EU country taking the lead on anything which might produce a military conflict with the US. Following yes, leading no.
Early, but small POD with no effect on fall of Communism : France decides to take a stronger anti-Israel and pro-Iraq stand after Israel bombs the reactor in 1981. No significant change to OTL in Europe but France begins to supply Iraq with better weaponry and technical support, interfering more in Iran-Iraq war and getting enhanced access to Iraqi oil. France also begins to more vigorously condemn Israel, esp. the Lebanon incursion/occupation, including campaigning for an EU embargo. Both enhance France's visibility in the world and Paris gains significant support in the EU (from the Benelux and Nordic countries, say). The US winks at the first move for a time but not the second. Iraq still demands compensation from other Arab states for fighting off the Aryan invader and attacks Kuwait sometime after war ends with Iran. Only now it has had essentially a decade of very close ties with France . . .
Alternately, push the 1990 Iraq invasion of Kuwait back a few years, allowing France to jump in post fall of Communism in Europe. The France-Iraq tie isn't as strong but the US-led expeditionary force suffers more losses than in OTL due to French aid to Iraq and discovers a good deal of French weaponry. Franco-American relations head south, with more and more of Europe forced over time to choose one side or the other on a variety of issues. Starting around 1997, stronger anti-Jewish bigotry in France for any of several reasons lead to open attacks on Jews by French and resident immigrant Muslims, which the authorities ignore. By the time of the hotly contested 2000 US Presidential campaign, candidates are falling all over each other demanding action against French "racism." American (self-)righteous indignation does not sit well with much of the EU, especially those with growing Muslim populations of their own. In 2001, Muslim terrorists launch a deadly attack on American civilians. Not only does a block of the EU refuse to cooperate with any American military retaliation, it turns out some of the Muslims had been living in France . . .
Picking on France in a way but I can't see any other EU country taking the lead on anything which might produce a military conflict with the US. Following yes, leading no.
Redbeard
Banned
Second Befreiungskrieg
This is bound to be in the ASB border area, but the best I can think of is a starting point in the German unification question.
WI the world is a lot more opposed towards a German unification after the fall of the wall?
In OTL Kanzler Kohl to a large degree used a very narrow window of opportunity to make the unification a reality before opposition grew to conscious and strong. But I guess we only need small PoD’s to have this window of opportunity remain un-utilised.
If the two Germanys stay divided into the 90’s I guess tension will be growing. Some Eastgermans want to keep as much of the old system alive (they live off it) as possible while others (growing number) impatiently want their share of the incredible riches of the west. In west they are short of the OTL experience of the tremendous costs involved in a reunification and a growing number of people see a great injustice being induced on Germany from the outside world and see their own government as lame. The French lead the international opposition towards German unification, and are in practical terms given a free hand from the other powers.
A German reunification movement independent of the major parties is growing fast and with intensifying nationalistic tendencies. The leaders of the movement are careful to avoid reminding anybody of the Nazis, but refer to the period from 1807 to 1813 when German nationalism was born in opposition to mainly French hegemony. The term from then of “Befreiungskrieg” (liberation war) is used more and more often and concerns among the neighbours of Germany grow accordingly. In Austria and Hungary there is growing support for Germany, the first will join too and the other will have back the territories and Hungarians lost after 1945.
By late 90’s young Germans clad in black, red and gold is becoming a common sight, not at least among students. Soon the taboo of the 1945 borders is broken and the sufferings of Germans in 1945 and post war years are hot themes among Germans. By January 2004 the reunification movement sweeps away the old parties in national elections and form government. The reunification movements has during elections promised that a German reunification will be their first act of Government and the world holds its breath as the French, Russian, Polish and Czech governments (aka “New Entente”) have declared that they guarantee the post 1945 borders and full independence of the post-GDR.
In post GDR it comes to fighting between pro independence (supported by the remaining Russian troops) and pro unification troops, and soon FGR troop cross the border. Hungarians in Slovakia and Romania rise to rebellion. Next the New Entente orders full mobilisation but in anticipation of this movement the Germans strike first with a main blow towards France while holding off the Poles, Czechs and Russians.
In UK and USA there is deep concern over the situation, as France has threatened to use nuclear weapons and neither USA nor UK has any interest in France and Russia ruling the European continent. The US Government at 16.45 CET on 26th of January 2004 states that use of nukes is considered a Casus Belli. But in the same minuttes a tactical French nuke is fired on advancing German columns and another on Freiburg. At 20.00 CET the President of USA declares that USA is now at war with France…
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
This is bound to be in the ASB border area, but the best I can think of is a starting point in the German unification question.
WI the world is a lot more opposed towards a German unification after the fall of the wall?
In OTL Kanzler Kohl to a large degree used a very narrow window of opportunity to make the unification a reality before opposition grew to conscious and strong. But I guess we only need small PoD’s to have this window of opportunity remain un-utilised.
If the two Germanys stay divided into the 90’s I guess tension will be growing. Some Eastgermans want to keep as much of the old system alive (they live off it) as possible while others (growing number) impatiently want their share of the incredible riches of the west. In west they are short of the OTL experience of the tremendous costs involved in a reunification and a growing number of people see a great injustice being induced on Germany from the outside world and see their own government as lame. The French lead the international opposition towards German unification, and are in practical terms given a free hand from the other powers.
A German reunification movement independent of the major parties is growing fast and with intensifying nationalistic tendencies. The leaders of the movement are careful to avoid reminding anybody of the Nazis, but refer to the period from 1807 to 1813 when German nationalism was born in opposition to mainly French hegemony. The term from then of “Befreiungskrieg” (liberation war) is used more and more often and concerns among the neighbours of Germany grow accordingly. In Austria and Hungary there is growing support for Germany, the first will join too and the other will have back the territories and Hungarians lost after 1945.
By late 90’s young Germans clad in black, red and gold is becoming a common sight, not at least among students. Soon the taboo of the 1945 borders is broken and the sufferings of Germans in 1945 and post war years are hot themes among Germans. By January 2004 the reunification movement sweeps away the old parties in national elections and form government. The reunification movements has during elections promised that a German reunification will be their first act of Government and the world holds its breath as the French, Russian, Polish and Czech governments (aka “New Entente”) have declared that they guarantee the post 1945 borders and full independence of the post-GDR.
In post GDR it comes to fighting between pro independence (supported by the remaining Russian troops) and pro unification troops, and soon FGR troop cross the border. Hungarians in Slovakia and Romania rise to rebellion. Next the New Entente orders full mobilisation but in anticipation of this movement the Germans strike first with a main blow towards France while holding off the Poles, Czechs and Russians.
In UK and USA there is deep concern over the situation, as France has threatened to use nuclear weapons and neither USA nor UK has any interest in France and Russia ruling the European continent. The US Government at 16.45 CET on 26th of January 2004 states that use of nukes is considered a Casus Belli. But in the same minuttes a tactical French nuke is fired on advancing German columns and another on Freiburg. At 20.00 CET the President of USA declares that USA is now at war with France…
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
gianluca790
Banned
how about this
If I remember correctly France, Germany and Russia were against the Invasion of Iraq. Imagine a war between the European Triumvirate and the Anglo-American Alliance over Israel, Palestine and Iraq. We can add Iran and Communist China to the Triumvirate equation, as well as North Korea, Ukraine and Belarus. Eight against Two.
If I remember correctly France, Germany and Russia were against the Invasion of Iraq. Imagine a war between the European Triumvirate and the Anglo-American Alliance over Israel, Palestine and Iraq. We can add Iran and Communist China to the Triumvirate equation, as well as North Korea, Ukraine and Belarus. Eight against Two.
As a poster already said, Chirac isn't insane. Schroder is in the same boat, and I don't see what Putin would get out of it. Also, more countries invaded Iraq than just the US and Britain, so it wouldn't be 8 vs. 2...
ninebucks
Banned
It pains me to lose grips with civility like this, but any suggestion as to France joining a military alliance with Iraq against the USA in 2003 is pure, rot-minded idiocy.
The best best would appear to be a very implosive end to the Cold War, with a definite pro-Soviet bloc of nations fighting against a definite anti-Soviet bloc. The USSR (or RFR) needn't even get involved, it could just be a war between military juntas and inexperienced reactionaries within the Warsaw Pact.
The best best would appear to be a very implosive end to the Cold War, with a definite pro-Soviet bloc of nations fighting against a definite anti-Soviet bloc. The USSR (or RFR) needn't even get involved, it could just be a war between military juntas and inexperienced reactionaries within the Warsaw Pact.
Alcuin
Banned
OK, so your saying at least 20% of Europe is insane?
He's also saying that Chirac's a socialist, which will be news to Chirac, the French population, and virtually anybody else.