Europe after Nazi Collapse
- Thread starter xie323
- Start date
Depends on what situation looks like before, i.e. what kind of victory Nazis achieved. I suspect satellites breaking away, ditto for annexed lands. What happens in the east is probably chaos with German colonists being targetted where they are thin on the ground.
Of course it depends what kind of position US and UK are in as well. And what kind of collapse we have, is it Balkans-in-the-1990s, Romania, velvet revolution, break up of Soviet Union.....
Of course it depends what kind of position US and UK are in as well. And what kind of collapse we have, is it Balkans-in-the-1990s, Romania, velvet revolution, break up of Soviet Union.....
We are talking about a collapse of the most evil regime ever here. The victory can't be The Man in the High Castle-total either, or it would be ASB. So let's assume the USSR still exists beyond Ekaterinburg, and Europe is puppetised. The German Reich goes from Eupen to Ekaterinburg (including the Reichskommissariate) and has puppets in Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Denmark, Norway, Finland, France.
And this collapses in a civil war. We are talking a vast Syria here, with the US and UK und USSR supporting amicable rebel factions, and after the civil war, Germany will be nonexistant probably.
I would suspect: All Reichskommissariate break away and apart, probably with the help of the USSR. These states become nationalist-communist, i.e. pro forma communist, but in reality radically anti-German.
Poland is created. Here it depends: If the Polish rebels are communist (mostly), it will become nearly OTL People's Republic of Poland. If the Polish rebels are democratic, it might become democratic and neutral. And if the rebels in Poland are fascists, (part of?) the Intermarium Federation might be created against the will of the USSR.
Hungary, Romania and Slovakia break away. Their course depends on the people more to the east... Free France will come back to Metropolitan France, Belgium and the Netherlands are reestablished.
And the real German Reich will not exist any more either, this will turn into a giant Syria with support from every side; there might be such states as Hannover, Schleswig, Prussia, Brandenburg, Saxony,... and I also predict some Nazi "rump state", or at least heavy guerilla fighting, in Bavaria and Austria's Alps.
And this collapses in a civil war. We are talking a vast Syria here, with the US and UK und USSR supporting amicable rebel factions, and after the civil war, Germany will be nonexistant probably.
I would suspect: All Reichskommissariate break away and apart, probably with the help of the USSR. These states become nationalist-communist, i.e. pro forma communist, but in reality radically anti-German.
Poland is created. Here it depends: If the Polish rebels are communist (mostly), it will become nearly OTL People's Republic of Poland. If the Polish rebels are democratic, it might become democratic and neutral. And if the rebels in Poland are fascists, (part of?) the Intermarium Federation might be created against the will of the USSR.
Hungary, Romania and Slovakia break away. Their course depends on the people more to the east... Free France will come back to Metropolitan France, Belgium and the Netherlands are reestablished.
And the real German Reich will not exist any more either, this will turn into a giant Syria with support from every side; there might be such states as Hannover, Schleswig, Prussia, Brandenburg, Saxony,... and I also predict some Nazi "rump state", or at least heavy guerilla fighting, in Bavaria and Austria's Alps.
The problem is will there even be a Poland to rebel? I mean, if we're talking even a cease-fire (as opposed to a full blown settlement), than the Nazi's are gonna jump on the Generalplan Ost train and they're not stopping till Poland is a country-wide recreating of the antebellum South.
As for the OP, it's very, very, very (did I mention very?) hard for the Third Reich to eke out a win that doesn't end with them getting rolled over by the UK/US in the 50's. If the remarkably unlikely event that doesn't happen, the resulting collapse is gonna be bad. Like, Syria meets Civil War-era China on meth bad.
I doubt that the UK/US would declare war on a "victorious" Third Reich on their own accord. It would be more a Cold than a Hot War situation at first. If there was any hint of civil unrest, though (and there would be soon, as the Führer was anyway suffering from diverse ailments), of course, UK and US would strike (as would the rump USSR) in the form of massive support for rebel factions which they like.
And, because I doubt the Führer would survive long past 1950 anyway, I also doubt there would be no Poles/Poland to rebel. Of course, after a win, the Nazis would fully embark on Generalplan Ost and all other schemes they had, but I still doubt they could be implemented so fully in 8 years that there would be no single Pole left.
Constantinople
Banned
Yes you're probably right. However, it is more than likely that enough Poles will have been killed as to guarantee that they could not recreate a viable state.
Assuming the Nazis have had this area for 20 plus years, you're going to find that the bulk of the non-Aryan population has been severely reduced. The remnants are enslaved, and illiterate with their language and culture being eradicated. While the "satellites" might break away, there won't ever be a Poland. The German borders will be from the Rhine to wherever the boundary is between them & rump USSR or its successor state(s). This is assuming there is no war that destroys Germany but just the Nazi system falls apart on its own.
that's how i see it too. the USA didnt break apart into north mexico, spanish america, french louisiana and indian states during the great depression - those population simply werent there any more to claim it and fight for it.
the reichs-commisseriats would hang onto germany because the threatening "bear" further east, and germany would still have enough cohesion (and forsight as to what would happen if) to not go into civil war.
so you'd have an economic malaise caused by blind ideologues and an old guard afraid of change, then followed by a new political generation which starts a market economic shock therapy which would weaken the state, but it's still protected by 20.000 nuclear bombs and a gigantic army which would be perfectly willing to shoot secessionists or foreign aggressors.
russia, despite all the hostile minorities and hostile neighbors is still as big as pluto.
sorry guys, no reich civil war for you.
The only real winners would be the Americans and the Chinese, because the moment Hitler croaks it, the Reich collapses into civil war, and both powers will be wanting slices of Europe. In the aftermath, there's going to be a carving up between the Reich Remnant (General Government, Old Germany) that will be like Best Korea, various Maoist governments in Eastern Europe and the South who will be fighting Nazi Warlords, while America and Britain will be grabbing as much of Western Europe as possible while dealing with other warlords.
Given that a victorious Nazi Germany means a defeated Soviet Union there likely will not be a communist China.
Anyway, it really depends on how long the collapse of the Nazi state takes. Less than ten years and you could see some of the areas in Eastern Europe recover, but they will be severely weakened. Closer to 20 and there simply won't be enough people left. Most likely the Reich collapses into civil war with the various factions declaring each of the others to be traitors. Poison gas is used in enormous quantities, and any state that survives is going to make North Korea look like Disneyland. I don't actually see the state breaking apart however, if only because the people in charge are probably also going to be insane megolomaniacs who wouldn't be willing to stop killing each other until the country in under their control.
Some of the larger satellites may break away during this time (Norway is the most likely as it could appeal to the West for help stopping another invasion). Italy might seperate itself from Nazi Germany as well as it self-destructs, but is more likely to be pulled into the civil war, ditto for France.
Meanwhile the US and UK are perfectly willing to sit by and watch their great enemy self destruct, and there isn't much they can do about it beyond maybe trying to get a saneish person in charge, but the odds of there actually being someone like that is slim.
The collapse of a victorious III Reich would probably resemble the collapse of the Eastern Bloc and the USSR, because, just like those entities, only massive violence or the threat thereof would be keeping the structure together. So as long as the Reich is fine with summarily massacring any one daring to oppose it, it will probably remain relatively stable.
Thus, I'd say the collapse could begin in the provinces, but would have to be caused ultimately by either a Gorbachev-simile leader renouncing to resort to massive violence to keep the Empire down, or an overwhelming number of Germans rising in civil revolt to demand freedom. Or perhaps both. I don't see a civil war following from that. Most likely, the German-speaking areas (whatever they are at the time of the collapse) will remain in a liberal or perhaps (less likely) socialist Germany.
Thus, I'd say the collapse could begin in the provinces, but would have to be caused ultimately by either a Gorbachev-simile leader renouncing to resort to massive violence to keep the Empire down, or an overwhelming number of Germans rising in civil revolt to demand freedom. Or perhaps both. I don't see a civil war following from that. Most likely, the German-speaking areas (whatever they are at the time of the collapse) will remain in a liberal or perhaps (less likely) socialist Germany.
In my opinion, (long-standing) victory of the Reich implies:
- A defeated USSR will mean an anticipated death of the communism. So no communist China, no communism elsewhere (probably). A mostly Asian Russia would survive as a declining power, and maybe drifts into some kind of fascism too.
- The area directly ruled by Berlin (most of continental Europe) will be quickly Germanized, so national differences will be greatly reduced, if no totally erased.
- This regime might be internationally isolated, so it should be mostly autocratic.
I guess that, as every regime in the History, it will decline sooner or later. I think it will come relatively soon. One of the main 'problems' of Nazism as ideology (talking about ideology in sensu-stricto, not the horrible application of it) is that its own success establishes per se its sentence of death. Nazism was mainly based upon grievances, humiliations, retaliations, lebensraum, revenge against the allies etc etc. Once all these grievances have been paid by defeated and humiliated allies, once the German people has achieved its 'lebensraum', once all these perspectives have been accomplished...why to keep Nazism? At this point people would want freedom and good standards of live, both difficult to achieve in such regime, so different social conflicts will pop up quickly.
However, the fall of Nazism does not imply that Great Germany will balkanize (why? if there are not minor nationalities inside) or that the new regime will be democratic (it could be some kind of 'light' authoritarian regime).
- A defeated USSR will mean an anticipated death of the communism. So no communist China, no communism elsewhere (probably). A mostly Asian Russia would survive as a declining power, and maybe drifts into some kind of fascism too.
- The area directly ruled by Berlin (most of continental Europe) will be quickly Germanized, so national differences will be greatly reduced, if no totally erased.
- This regime might be internationally isolated, so it should be mostly autocratic.
I guess that, as every regime in the History, it will decline sooner or later. I think it will come relatively soon. One of the main 'problems' of Nazism as ideology (talking about ideology in sensu-stricto, not the horrible application of it) is that its own success establishes per se its sentence of death. Nazism was mainly based upon grievances, humiliations, retaliations, lebensraum, revenge against the allies etc etc. Once all these grievances have been paid by defeated and humiliated allies, once the German people has achieved its 'lebensraum', once all these perspectives have been accomplished...why to keep Nazism? At this point people would want freedom and good standards of live, both difficult to achieve in such regime, so different social conflicts will pop up quickly.
However, the fall of Nazism does not imply that Great Germany will balkanize (why? if there are not minor nationalities inside) or that the new regime will be democratic (it could be some kind of 'light' authoritarian regime).
The Nazi's were headed for collapse if they had won, since their economy was a mess and basically relied on looting other countries rather than building up their own base. Even if they had some kind of deal where the rump-USSR (its basically necessary for this to exist for the Nazi's to win) provides them with machine goods and slave labor (ala the Anglo/America-Nazi War) they're going to be headed for collapse the minute Hitler's heart stops beating. Maybe they won't balkanize, but it's not going to be a allohistorial repeat of the breakup of the USSR.
CthulhuFhtagn
Banned
I think that our descendants, 1000 years in the future, will think that we exaggerated the Nazis, because that level of evil seems almost impossible.
But yeah, it depends on who takes over after Hitler. If it's Himmler or Goebbels, than Europe is fucked.
Do you expect that our species will last that much?
Anyway, I think that, unfortunately, that level of evil can be repeated in the future. Pol Pot's regime was at similar level, and it was more recent.
If Nazi regime would have lasted more time, surely other countries would have copied them. I can imagine horrible scenarios with a Nazi South Africa, for example.
The KMT only lost because they moved to quickly to take over Manchuria after the Soviets withdrew, and the Soviets had left the Communists in place to take control of the area before the KMT got in. So when they actually did attack the KMT forces were too thinly spread to hold.
However, before the Japanese attacked the Communists were almost destroyed. Without Soviet aid, which isn't coming through TTL, and with the Americans having to move in to break the Japanese in mainland China (because the army may not surrender) the KMT is probably going to win.
This is a very optimistic view. You're talking about a nation where children were brainwashed to become Nazis before puberty set in, where girls whose parents punished them for getting pregnant in their teens would turn the parents in to the Gestapo, where all the people remember is that before the Party there was misery and humiliation, but now they are the rulers of a continent. Not to mention the constant partisan war that would likely go on in the East, the threat of attack from the West, and at least some members of your family under direct SS supervision.
None of which fixes the basic problem with KMT misrule or Chaing's inablity to get a handle on his regime's internal corruption, rampant factionalism and brazen disloyalty. Mao for all his faults as a ruler was a genius at guerrilla warfare & subversion and the CCP was well-led, disciplined and at that point non-corrupt.
I should also point out from 1937 onwards the CCP & KMT were both fighting against Japan on the same side, with the bulk of the U.S.S.R's aid going to the KMT. But that was cut-off in 1941 OTL.