Escaping Soviet Rule

[user23123]

How will the soviets react if one (East European country ) develops nuclear weapons and the they decide that the want some capitalism and/or democracy

What if Albania and/or Bulgaria, choose to do a Prague spring ? How will the soviets deal with them ( they have no direct land link to U.S.S.R )

What if Romania decides to a Prague spring.(During the actual Prague Spring the Rumanian dictator,protested the invasion,and there is rumor that the soviets think of an invasion of Romania also but,they back down when China suggested it will not be a good idea.) what if he decides that he wants capitalism or move further way for the Soviets

And in general what it will take for East European countries to escape the grip of Moscow before the 80" ?
And which are more likely to succeed ?

( By escaping : turn democratic if the wish,adopt capitalism )

 

[mowque]

How will the soviets react if one (East European country ) develops nuclear weapons and the they decide that the want some capitalism and/or democracy

No way to do this without the USSR getting wise unless the USA just gives them to the nation and that would result in WW3.

 

[Jeremak]

Well, in 70'ties there was a brief idea in polish highest circles to dvelop H-bomb in secret independently from Soviet Union... Or at least a story about it.

 

[Cryptic]

What if Albania and/or Bulgaria, choose to do a Prague spring ? How will the soviets deal with them ( they have no direct land link to U.S.S.R )

While Albania never did a Prague Spring, it did drift out of Soviet influence and along with Yugoslavia, became a non aligned nation. The Soviets never interferred, probably as Albania was too small, poor and remote to risk involvement in.

 

[Polish Eagle]

How will the soviets react if one (East European country ) develops nuclear weapons and the they decide that the want some capitalism and/or democracy

What if Albania and/or Bulgaria, choose to do a Prague spring ? How will the soviets deal with them ( they have no direct land link to U.S.S.R )

What if Romania decides to a Prague spring.(During the actual Prague Spring the Rumanian dictator,protested the invasion,and there is rumor that the soviets think of an invasion of Romania also but,they back down when China suggested it will not be a good idea.) what if he decides that he wants capitalism or move further way for the Soviets

And in general what it will take for East European countries to escape the grip of Moscow before the 80" ?
And which are more likely to succeed ?

( By escaping : turn democratic if the wish,adopt capitalism )

A Soviet state that is too poor to sustainably invade Eastern Europe, which can no longer provide even for its own constituent republics, and which is confident that the US will not attempt to escalate the situation.

So, basically, OTL's 1989 Soviet Union.

It is not feasible for any of the lesser Warsaw Pact nations to develop their own atomic weapons without the Soviets noticing. It's kinda hard to hide uranium enrichment facilities in nations packed to the gills with Soviet intelligence, and overflown regularly by Soviet airplanes on their way to East Germany. And if any do acquire nuclear weapons, they won't use them against the Russians. They can, at best, fire off a single shot, and the Soviets would (almost justifiably) nuke every major city in retaliation. The only thing that such a program would achieve would be to convert the Polish People's Republic or the Socialist Republic of Romania into the Polish Soviet Socialist Republic or Romanian Soviet Socialist Republic.

Albania could get away with liberalizing, but that would mean both sane leadership and Moscow not giving a damn. One of these things was lacking IOTL.

Bulgaria is another matter. It is too important to the Soviet effort--it's right there on the border of two NATO nations that would be integral to a Soviet effort. It cannot be permitted to fall to the West because then the American missile launchers would be that much closer to the Soviet heartland.

Bottom line: If the Soviets have any way to prevent the loss of any buffer state, they will crush a move toward independence.

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

During the Cold War the results would be war and a humongous mess all around.

Even now Eastern European nations deploying nuclear weapons would ratchet up tensions dramatically.

 

[MUC]

Developing nuclear weapons is not a must.
If Bulgaria does a Prague spring, the Soviets poor into it trough Romania. Romania would allow Soviet troops to pass. After all if Bulgaria went democratic, it would increase the pressure on Romania to do so as well.
Albania on the other hand is a totally different ball game.

 

[B_Munro]

Albania is on the other side of neutral Yugoslavia, and invading that to get to Albania is opening a huge can of worms. Anyway, IIRC the Albanians dumped their alliance with the Soviets and allied with the Chinese fairly early after the Sino-Soviet split.

Bruce

 

[user23123]

Nuclear weapons (or any other weapon of mass destruction ) are there to limit the possibility of soviet and other friends invading.Unless there willing to endure a Vietnam or Afghanistan war.

 

[Evan]

No way to do this without the USSR getting wise unless the USA just gives them to the nation and that would result in WW3.

Hmm... Wildly speculating here, what if another nation like (say) China gives them nuclear weapons? Or, if it'd be too hard to physically transport them from China, what about France or Britain?

 

[Clandango]

Hmm... Wildly speculating here, what if another nation like (say) China gives them nuclear weapons? Or, if it'd be too hard to physically transport them from China, what about France or Britain?

Depends. Would that country do what the Chinese did with the Soviets by doing a lot of saber rattling against the Americans and Taiwanese to the point where they were given the technology so as to not be considered under wir nuclear umbrella? Really though, Mao would need reasons for giving up one of his precious nukes. A pile of gold and the chance that a lot of European die might work.

 

[Panica]

Well, in 70'ties there was a brief idea in polish highest circles to dvelop H-bomb in secret independently from Soviet Union... Or at least a story about it.

Since they are near by Russia anyway MAD would be plausible.

 

[Clandango]

Since they are near by Russia anyway MAD would be plausible.

You may want to remove the M, though.

 

[user23123]

Depends. Would that country do what the Chinese did with the Soviets by doing a lot of saber rattling against the Americans and Taiwanese to the point where they were given the technology so as to not be considered under wir nuclear umbrella? Really though, Mao would need reasons for giving up one of his precious nukes.

China was not that happy with the Soviets.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split

The problem is transporting it there undetected and then is do you trust the receiving country not to fire at some.since once it is used it is useless,and it will get you in a lot of trouble once it is find out how give them the bomb.

A pile of gold and the chance that a lot of European die might work.

I don't know of pile of gold and dead Europeans but chance of dead Russians it another mater especially if China would have think that Russia will tray to move against here

 

[LostCosmonaut]

You may want to remove the M, though.

Indeed. Any hypothetical Polish or Czechoslovakian nuclear arsenal would be able to destroy one or two Soviet cities at best (this is assuming they even have survivable delivery systems). The Soviets can pound them back into the stone age while still leaving thousands of warheads in reserve to deal with the US and PRC.

 

[user23123]

To make thinks clear i was not referring to nuclear suicide.

The nuclear option should have been something in the lines of you blowup a mountain and lunch a satellite in to space thus you show the Soviets that you have the means and possibility.

 

[user23123]

Indeed. Any hypothetical Polish or Czechoslovakian nuclear arsenal would be able to destroy one or two Soviet cities at best (this is assuming they even have survivable delivery systems). The Soviets can pound them back into the stone age while still leaving thousands of warheads in reserve to deal with the US and PRC.

It might be enough, especially if one of those city’s is Moscow.

 

[Bernard Woolley]

Well, in 70'ties there was a brief idea in polish highest circles to dvelop H-bomb in secret independently from Soviet Union... Or at least a story about it.

I've read about the Polish nuclear programme in an article about their Mig-23s many years ago. Wish I had it to hand, but IIRC the upshot was that the Soviets squashed the programme when they noticed that a Mig-23 armed with a nuclear weapon was capable of a one-way flight from Polish air bases to Moscow.

 

[Clandango]

China was not that happy with the Soviets.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_split

I agree. The thing I mentioned, though with a short and confusing explanation, was that some considered the Taiwan Straits Crisis to have been cooked up by Mao to get nuclear equipment and technology from the Soviets as otherwise they might have been drawn into helping them with a war due to geopolitics. I also recalls that for the ceremony about Stalin's death being held around the Forbidden City there were signs saying "Try not to laugh".

 

[Clandango]

To make thinks clear i was not referring to nuclear suicide.

The nuclear option should have been something in the lines of you blowup a mountain and lunch a satellite in to space thus you show the Soviets that you have the means and possibility.

Around how much land would the testing grounds take up, do you think? The Big Five had plenty of open land for testing though Eastern Europe would need to choose where they detonate their warheads wisely, especially if they don't want to sentpd fallout into their rivers, cities, over the border, or potentially trigger a war by making people think a first strike had occurred.