Eritrean independence referendum in case of US invasion of Sudan in 1993.

[AT0N]

Ok, let's say that the attempt to bomb WTC in february 1993 is successful and US invades Sudan during spring the same year (because Sudan at the time hosted Al-Qaeda).

Could the Ethiopian government of Meles Zenawi use this as an opportunity to postpone the Eritrean independence referendum scheduled on april 1993? Or even outright turn this referendum from a referendum on independence to a referendum on autonomy inside Ethiopa? Maybe even rig it in the face of chaos created by the war in Sudan?

I think that the last two options open a very interesting prospect of swapping the fate Eritrea an South Sudan- in this world South Sudan is independnet in 1993 due to the American invasion while Eritrea continues to fight a guerilla war until 2000s or 2010s.

But I am not sure about the plausibility of such shift because many on this forum think that Eritrean independence has become inevitable by 1980s.

 

[AT0N]

Anyone?

 

[Hamurabi]

Ok, let's say that the attempt to bomb WTC in february 1993 is successful and US invades Sudan during spring the same year (because Sudan at the time hosted Al-Qaeda).

Could the Ethiopian government of Meles Zenawi use this as an opportunity to postpone the Eritrean independence referendum scheduled on april 1993? Or even outright turn this referendum from a referendum on independence to a referendum on autonomy inside Ethiopa? Maybe even rig it in the face of chaos created by the war in Sudan?

I think that the last two options open a very interesting prospect of swapping the fate Eritrea an South Sudan- in this world South Sudan is independnet in 1993 due to the American invasion while Eritrea continues to fight a guerilla war until 2000s or 2010s.

But I am not sure about the plausibility of such shift because many on this forum think that Eritrean independence has become inevitable by 1980s.

I believe the EPLF were the main muscle of the rebel movement and pulled all the rest along with them to fell the derg.
In 1993 melez zenewi has no power to do anything about it when faced with overwhelming Eritrean military superiority.

 

[AT0N]

I believe the EPLF were the main muscle of the rebel movement and pulled all the rest along with them to fell the derg.
In 1993 melez zenewi has no power to do anything about it when faced with overwhelming Eritrean military superiority.

Ok. But actually, what do you thing of future Eritrean-Ethiopian war in such scenario? Would be avoided with greater American presence in the region or be more in favor of Eritrea or Ethiopia than IRL?

 

[thenextgui]

Ethiopia had been thoroughly damaged by decades of civil war and famine. They probably still have to concede to Eritrean independence.