Entente after quick victory

[LordKalvert]

Assuming everything goes right for the Entente in August 1914 and the French pour through the gap and pin the Germans against the Rhine while the Russians win decisively in the East and can pour their army unmolested into Germany and Austria how does the Entente breakdown (which it inevitably will)

Do France and Russia stick together against Britain and Japan or

Does Britain try to form an anti Russian bloc with Italy and France

Or does Britain ally with Russia against France


By the way, with the Russians occupying Berlin and Vienna, it should be assumed that they get the bulk of the Central Powers fleet at least initially

 

[LSCatilina]

how does the Entente breakdown (which it inevitably will)

It depends a lot on how the war was won. Giving what you said, Britain didn't seem to have played a major role, and the absence of American involvement would make France less wary of an Anglo-Saxon block.

I'd tend to think Britain would sever gradually ties with Moscow (critically with Russia trying to replace Germany as naval european power), and that while France will try to keep ties with both, a too powerful undemocratic yellow blob in Europe would make french left-wing far less prone to support a maintain as is of the Franco-Russian alliance.

So, probably the maintain of Entente Cordiale as separated from Russian alliance for what matters to France, with possible ouvertures with Germany appearing in the late 1910's to limit the Russian hegemony (a bit like it was attempted IOTL against Britto-Americans); and growing wariness towards Russia, unless it becames a democratic (even if limited) power.

 

[LordKalvert]

It depends a lot on how the war was won. Giving what you said, Britain didn't seem to have played a major role, and the absence of American involvement would make France less wary of an Anglo-Saxon block.

I'd tend to think Britain would sever gradually ties with Moscow (critically with Russia trying to replace Germany as naval european power), and that while France will try to keep ties with both, a too powerful undemocratic yellow blob in Europe would make french left-wing far less prone to support a maintain as is of the Franco-Russian alliance.

So, probably the maintain of Entente Cordiale as separated from Russian alliance for what matters to France, with possible ouvertures with Germany appearing in the late 1910's to limit the Russian hegemony (a bit like it was attempted IOTL against Britto-Americans); and growing wariness towards Russia, unless it becames a democratic (even if limited) power.

Good points. The argument against an Anglo-French bloc would be that France is the only place you can invade England from. French naval power could also grow quite rapidly if freed from the threat of Germany as well.

On the other hand, the Russians would be supreme on the continent. The French couldn't possibly hope to drive across what remained of Germany and invade Russia and even if they do, the British would be terrified of that

Really curious as to what people think Italy's game would be. She lost out on the colonial game and might be looking to redress that which would put her in the anti-English camp. On the other hand, with a much more powerful France she would have reason to fear them but what help could Britain be against France?

In a short quick allied victory, Britain is going to find her bargaining position to be practically nothing. She wouldn't have had time to build up a significant Army so France and Russia would be dictating the peace as they occupied the CP territory which is why I think the Russians likely to end up with the German navy

 

[LSCatilina]

The argument against an Anglo-French bloc would be that France is the only place you can invade England from. French naval power could also grow quite rapidly if freed from the threat of Germany as well.

It never really was a problem in post-1918 relations, in spite of Germany's threat being significantly reduced. I don't really see why it should be there when at the contrary, the alliance proved to be efficient.

On the other hand, the Russians would be supreme on the continent.

Giving traditional Russophobia of British political class, it would be a really compelling argument. That Balkans pass under Russian hegemon...right. Central Europe? Germany and Austria? Nope.

Really curious as to what people think Italy's game would be. She lost out on the colonial game and might be looking to redress that which would put her in the anti-English camp.

Main problem would be that the main anti-English camp would be Russia. And giving the Russian hegemon on Balkans, that were a main focus of Italian nationalism (rather than colonialism after a while)...I'd tend to say they'd end up joining the side that can give it more on the region, as IOTL, meaning Franco-British side.

On the other hand, with a much more powerful France she would have reason to fear them but what help could Britain be against France?

The Franco-Italian tensions were much more appeased since Tunisia (that was more of an epidermical move than a really deep tendence, from what I gather).

In a short quick allied victory, Britain is going to find her bargaining position to be practically nothing.

I'm not so sure. Its naval and financial power would be enough to owe the country something. Even with a quick victory, I feel like RN would have a role in North Sea (would it be only to definitely blockade German possibilities there and support offensive trough Rhineland and North Sea coasts).
While Russia would probably have the upper hand on Baltic German navy (or rather, what remains of it : I don't think Germans would be kind enough to give away their vessels and may just end up by destroying them), I think that Britain would have enough political importance to claim dibbs in North-West.

 

[LordKalvert]

It never really was a problem in post-1918 relations, in spite of Germany's threat being significantly reduced. I don't really see why it should be there when at the contrary, the alliance proved to be efficient.

There were problems but both sides had been exhausted by WWI. In a quick allied victory, that wouldn't be the case. Russia would also be still standing and not the communist pariah

Giving traditional Russophobia of British political class, it would be a really compelling argument. That Balkans pass under Russian hegemon...right. Central Europe? Germany and Austria? Nope.

Austria almost assuredly. After all, whose going to force them out? As for Germany, no, I don't think it would fall under Russian hegemony. Rather I think the French and the Russians would take chunks out of her and split her into a bunch of harmless mini states

Main problem would be that the main anti-English camp would be Russia. And giving the Russian hegemon on Balkans, that were a main focus of Italian nationalism (rather than colonialism after a while)...I'd tend to say they'd end up joining the side that can give it more on the region, as IOTL, meaning Franco-British side.

Perhaps, but the Russian army would be quite formidable opponent. Britain would certainly lapse back into anti-Russianism but Russia doesn't really press on any other power's interests other than Japan- who certainly is going to stay in the British camp

The Franco-Italian tensions were much more appeased since Tunisia (that was more of an epidermical move than a really deep tendence, from what I gather).

Quite agree here. There were some latent anti-French feeling such that San Guiliano commented that the best thing that could happen for Italy was that France and Austria both lose. Italy will be on the side that offers her the most for the least cost.

If France and Russia stick together and return to anti-British policies, then Italy would be almost compelled to back them against Britain

I'm not so sure. Its naval and financial power would be enough to owe the country something. Even with a quick victory, I feel like RN would have a role in North Sea (would it be only to definitely blockade German possibilities there and support offensive trough Rhineland and North Sea coasts).
While Russia would probably have the upper hand on Baltic German navy (or rather, what remains of it : I don't think Germans would be kind enough to give away their vessels and may just end up by destroying them), I think that Britain would have enough political importance to claim dibbs in North-West.

Britain might be able to enforce its claims on the colonies which are really pretty worthless. But she would have failed to achieve her objective- the destruction of the German fleet as it would probably have remained in port as OTL

The Russians would have the upper hand (and the French as well) since their armies are going to be in Germany while Britain would have at most a nominal force.

Given the offer, give us your fleet and we leave Berlin or don't and we burn it, the Germans are going to deal.

Besides, I think Willie would prefer to deal with Nicholas than with Parliament. Certainly would over France

We are assuming that everything goes right for the Entente and the Austo-German armies are beaten in the field and no longer able to offer resistance and the French and Russians able to advance pretty much at will

 

[Inquisitor Tolkien]

You overestimate the war aims of all the European Powers in 1914.

Without a prolonged bloodbath, French war aims would not be to utterly crush Germany as a Great Power, and Russian war aims limited to the Balkans and the curtailment of Austria-Hungary. Britain would largely limit their concerns to the German fleet and colonies.

In the event of a "quick" Entente victory, we'd look at, most likely:

1) the (re-)annexation of Alsace-Lorraine to France
2) the guarantee of Serbian independence and a probable annexation of Bosnia by Serbia
3) the dismantlement of the German fleet
4) perhaps some minor border adjustments along the East German border along the Polish frontier, or, at most, Austrian Galicia to Russia
5) indemnities
6) restrictions on the German and Austro-Hungarian militaries, perhaps demlitarized zones
7) the loss of German colonies overseas as par for the course

PERHAPS the self-determination of some of the peoples of Austria-Hungary, but Russia will be much more hesitant about such a radical shift in the region, which also gives ideas to some of their own regions.

If the Ottomans or Italians join, more things change. As well as the addition of other smaller powers like Romania.