What if the Enola Gay was intercepted by Japanese fighters over Japan? The Enola Gay was heavily damage, and the bomb release on it malfunctioned forcing it to crash land on Japan with the atomic bomb intact in its bay (I don't know how sensitive the bomb is, maybe someone here can enlighten me). Let's for argument sake, assume that the Japanese scientists were able to figure out what the atomic bomb is, what can Japanese do with this bomb and how will be the Allies response to this new predicament?
Enola Gay Crash Lands in Hiroshima
- Thread starter knightyknight
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NapoleonXIV
Banned
I don't know how sensitive the bomb is but doubt it was set in any way to explode before being dropped. I do know that the Japanese scientists would have no doubt what it was (Japan had its own atom bomb project, and several cyclotrons were located in Japan at this time). They had, however, no real prospect of being able to make a bomb even if they had a model to work from, as they lacked materials. It would probably scare the bejesus out of them and result in their immediate surrender.
If they could fast enough, for the other A bomb, which we later dropped on Nagasaki would probably be on its way as soon as the Enola was late getting back. This time it might be escorted, perhaps having another few bombers along as well (I've wondered why they sent one lone unescorted bomber anyway). The US was determined to drop the bomb, both to demonstrate we had one, and to show the Russians what it could do.
If they could fast enough, for the other A bomb, which we later dropped on Nagasaki would probably be on its way as soon as the Enola was late getting back. This time it might be escorted, perhaps having another few bombers along as well (I've wondered why they sent one lone unescorted bomber anyway). The US was determined to drop the bomb, both to demonstrate we had one, and to show the Russians what it could do.
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Hiroshima was first, and Najasaki was second. Because of the loss of the Enola Gay, the Allies hold off the second atomic bomb run for a day. The orinignal target before Najasaki was Tokyo, but because of clouds, Najasaki was hit. With clear skies, Tokoyo explodes in a nuclear hellfire, witht he Emperor, General Tojo, and other top Japanese officals dead. The shooting down of the Enola Gay is not very plausibble since the B-29's reigned supreme over the skies of Japan, and were met with very little resistance (since they B-29's flew so high).
I would expect that Tibbets would have been ordered to auger his plane into the sea rather than allow the bomb to be captured intact, but in the interest of fantasy, let's imagine he doesn't.
Nothing much changes, other than a lot of people in Hiroshima get to go about their lives. As quickly as possible, once it's determined the raid was not completed, the second bomb would be rushed to its target, whether it be Nagasaki, a return to Hiroshima, or some other location.
Given enough time, Japanese scientists would probably be able to make something of it. But unless the Enola Gay landed completely intact (and if it was a crash landing, that's extremely unlikely) they wouldn't necessarily have access to arming mechanisms, etc. to detonate the bomb. The time required just to dig the thing out (it was far heavier than standard bombs) would be considerable. Add more time to figure out just what was so special about it -- assuming they can open it up, etc. Some other city would have long since been in cinders. And while a subsequent, successful bombing would certainly open the eyes of His Imperial Majesty's government as to exactly what they'd captured in Hiroshima, they still would have no reasonable way to deliver it, even if they could jury rig some way to arm it.
And finally, Japan had no idea how many additional bombs the US might possess. That consideration alone would probably forestall any considerable change in Japanese strategy. The war was as good as lost at Hiroshima in OTL; Nagasaki just sealed things.
Nothing much changes, other than a lot of people in Hiroshima get to go about their lives. As quickly as possible, once it's determined the raid was not completed, the second bomb would be rushed to its target, whether it be Nagasaki, a return to Hiroshima, or some other location.
Given enough time, Japanese scientists would probably be able to make something of it. But unless the Enola Gay landed completely intact (and if it was a crash landing, that's extremely unlikely) they wouldn't necessarily have access to arming mechanisms, etc. to detonate the bomb. The time required just to dig the thing out (it was far heavier than standard bombs) would be considerable. Add more time to figure out just what was so special about it -- assuming they can open it up, etc. Some other city would have long since been in cinders. And while a subsequent, successful bombing would certainly open the eyes of His Imperial Majesty's government as to exactly what they'd captured in Hiroshima, they still would have no reasonable way to deliver it, even if they could jury rig some way to arm it.
And finally, Japan had no idea how many additional bombs the US might possess. That consideration alone would probably forestall any considerable change in Japanese strategy. The war was as good as lost at Hiroshima in OTL; Nagasaki just sealed things.
"they still would have no reasonable way to deliver it, even if they could jury rig some way to arm it"
Perhaps a kamikaze fishing boat?
(insert obligatory joke here)
Perhaps a kamikaze fishing boat?
(insert obligatory joke here)
Mikey said:
Don't quote me on this, but I think I heard somewhere that on the last few days of war, the Nazis send some prototype of the ME-262 and the Komet to the Japanese.
Gentleman, actually I was hoping to hear some radical ideas besides Japan surrendering two days later than in OTL. Perhaps like offering the bomb to Russia for a better guarantee peace, or stiffening the backbone of the Emperor to fight till the end so they can nuke the landing site where the Allies may eventually be landing.
NapoleonXIV said:
Because it was a common practice to send over a lone bomber to gauge weather conditions over Japan prior to a major bombing raid. The Japanese had gotten so used to seeing the lone bomber come over, and by that point in the war weren't even bothering to scramble aircraft to intercept it, as they figured it posed no threat. The Americans decided to take advantage of that by sending the Enola Gay alone and unescorted.
IIRC, the bomb was indeed armed on the flight and it was radio controlled from the Enola Gay. There was some fear among the crew that a stray radio broadcast from someone would set if off right in the plane. Also, wasn't the first bomb, the gun style, where a small piece of uranium was fired at a larger piece to make the mass go super critical and BOOM(!)? If that is the case, the impact could dislodge the smaller piece, sending it into the larger one and there goes your nuclear fission. Even if the Japanese get their hands on it, I don't think they would have the technical expertise to use it.
Torqumada
Torqumada
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Mike Collins
Banned
Tom makes excellent points.
Tibbetts and his crew had suicide pills. Given this, Im sure they had some way to keep the bomb out of Japanese hands. Likely going into the drink as stated previously.
But in a worst case scenario (the B29 crashes on land, the bomb is intact, the Japanese locate and are curious about the bomb) its likely Japanese scientists could figure out what it was. Dont know if it would do them much good though. Theyd just know that the US was going to ram a thermonuclear enema up their posteriors sometime in the near future.........
Tibbetts and his crew had suicide pills. Given this, Im sure they had some way to keep the bomb out of Japanese hands. Likely going into the drink as stated previously.
But in a worst case scenario (the B29 crashes on land, the bomb is intact, the Japanese locate and are curious about the bomb) its likely Japanese scientists could figure out what it was. Dont know if it would do them much good though. Theyd just know that the US was going to ram a thermonuclear enema up their posteriors sometime in the near future.........
Professor Nishina and the Japanese equivalent of the Manhattan Project would know exactly what it was, even dismantled beyond repair, and would be horrified. What if they went screaming to Emperor Hirohito who then forced a Japanese surrender EARLIER? Earlier as in BEFORE THE USSR CAN INTERVENE?
NapoleonXIV said:
I think that there was a camera chase bomber in one of the two bomber flights.
Once they realized what it was, they might have been able to negotiate for better terms. The Americans can't possibly know whether the Japanese captured the bomb or its condition, so a bluff is extremely easy. I'm not sure anyone would buy it, though. It might just mean more burnt cities.
Admiral Matt said:
I like this, as I was also becoming disappointed that people were underestimating the wierdness made possible by this development. The fact that a nuclear bomb found in a crashed B-29 is NOT going to make the Japanese surrender. That's just wishful thinking. Most likely, it will not be recognized for what it is by the grunts who salvage the wreck. If it is made known to their scientists who confirm its identity, they will certainly think about threatening to release it to the USSR as a barganing chip. I think the possibilities are very interesting.
"If it is made known to their scientists who confirm its identity, they will certainly think about threatening to release it to the USSR as a barganing chip. I think the possibilities are very interesting."
That is a very interesting idea. The US was blockading Japan at the time, but the Sovs were our good buddies @ the time, so it's not like we can just wipe out the Ambassador and one of his "diplomatic packages."
That is a very interesting idea. The US was blockading Japan at the time, but the Sovs were our good buddies @ the time, so it's not like we can just wipe out the Ambassador and one of his "diplomatic packages."