Elizabeth I dies in 1584

[VVD0D95]

Inspired by @John Fredrick Parker 's thread.

Say in 1584, Queen Elizabeth falls ill and dies, what happens next?

There are two big issues that need to be addressed.

Firstly is the succession.

Under normal rules, the imprisoned Mary Queen of Scots is the rightful Queen. However, she is imprisoned and Catholic. Which means the next in line under her is her son James.

But, according to Henry VIII's Third Succession Act, Mary and James are disbarred from the throne and instead it is the descendants of his sister Mary Tudor who are the heirs.

So, that leaves us with:

Edward Seymour, Lord Beauchamp, eldest son of Katherine Grey and the Earl of Hertford. However, his parents marriage had been annulled and he'd been declared illegitimate. Yet otl he was still considered a potential heir to the throne.

Or

Margaret Clifford nee Stanley, Countess of Derby, the daughter of Eleanor Brandon. She had fallen from favour in 1579, for allegedly casting the Queen's horoscope and discussing the marriage of the Queen to the Duke of Alencon. She was also in serious debt.

So, out of all of these, who might actually get the nod? Mary, Queen of Scots or James? Or Edward or Margaret?

Would Catholics under the influence of Spain try and break Mary out and declare her Queen? if so, what does this in Scotland and Ireland and elsewhere?

Would people ignore the annulment of Seymour's parents marriage and declare him Edward VII?

Your thoughts as always are greatly appreciated.

@John Fredrick Parker @isabella @King of Danes @Kellan Sullivan @Tudorfan @desmirelle @Jonathan @Tyler96 @pandizzy @Awkwardvulture @The Professor @FalconHonour

 

[ordinarylittleme]

But, according to Henry VIII's Third Succession Act, Mary and James are disbarred from the throne and instead it is the descendants of his sister Mary Tudor who are the heirs

The question is who still cares by that point

 

[VVD0D95]

The question is who still cares by that point

I think a few people, given that it was still a murmuring concern when Liz died otl in 1603.

 

[King of Danes]

The most sensible thing would be to poison Mary while Liz is on her deathbed/before it is widely known that she died and then say that the shock of Elizabeth’s sudden death gave her a heart attack. That leaves a young James I/VI in charge who would be more palatable to most since he’s male, Protestant, the most senior claimant by blood, undoubtedly legitimate and removes the potential Scottish threat by uniting the realms

 

[FalconHonour]

Edward is male and in England, the senior heir per Henry's Act of Parliament, and not Scottish. I think if Parliament have got a choice between accepting Edward's parents' marriage, which they discussed more than once, or yielding the throne to a Catholic female whose blood is from the national enemies (half French, half Scottish ) they'll grit their death and go with Edward, especially as he is already married and has every hope of securing the Succession.

If Mary was dead, as @King of Danes suggests, then James would have more of a chance, but between Mary and Edward? The man's going to get it.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

but between Mary and Edward?

....honestly.....at this point a marriage would be easiest. Yes I know it's not possible at this time, but butterflies

 

[VVD0D95]

The most sensible thing would be to poison Mary while Liz is on her deathbed/before it is widely known that she died and then say that the shock of Elizabeth’s sudden death gave her a heart attack. That leaves a young James I/VI in charge who would be more palatable to most since he’s male, Protestant, the most senior claimant by blood, undoubtedly legitimate and removes the potential Scottish threat by uniting the realms

Intriguing, they would need to act quickly when Liz is comatose, in that ten day period to get things done.

Edward is male and in England, the senior heir per Henry's Act of Parliament, and not Scottish. I think if Parliament have got a choice between accepting Edward's parents' marriage, which they discussed more than once, or yielding the throne to a Catholic female whose blood is from the national enemies (half French, half Scottish ) they'll grit their death and go with Edward, especially as he is already married and has every hope of securing the Succession.

If Mary was dead, as @King of Danes suggests, then James would have more of a chance, but between Mary and Edward? The man's going to get it.

And this is true, though the issue is Parliament is not in session yet. Depending when Liz dies she might not have called parliament back yet.

edited for clarification due to error on my part

 

[VVD0D95]

....honestly.....at this point a marriage would be easiest. Yes I know it's not possible at this time, but butterflies

Tbf, Ned hadn't yet had a kid by his wife, so, seeking an annulment or dissolution of marriage may not be too difficult.

 

[RedKing]

Margaret Clifford husband is the Earl of Derby and she has sons which strengthens her position, so she has a good chance of getting the throne. There are a few Catholic nobles at this time (The Howard’s are among them, I think) so they might back Mary, especially Northumberland who still wants her free. James might also support an attempt to place his Mother on the throne, only if to get the crown for himself.

Internationally, Mary could enjoy the support of the French or Spanish depending on whether they see her as beneficial to them. Protestant nobles would probably back Margaret Clifford. Due to Edward Beauchamp’s questionable legitimacy I’m not sure if he’d get a shout.

tl;dr, I’d say Margaret Clifford gets it, with Mary getting a decent shout from Catholic holdouts.

 

[VVD0D95]

Margaret Clifford husband is the Earl of Derby and she has sons which strengthens her position, so she has a good chance of getting the throne. There are a few Catholic nobles at this time (The Howard’s are among them, I think) so they might back Mary, especially Northumberland who still wants her free. James might also support an attempt to place his Mother on the throne, only if to get the crown for himself.

Internationally, Mary could enjoy the support of the French or Spanish depending on whether they see her as beneficial to them. Protestant nobles would probably back Margaret Clifford. Due to Edward Beauchamp’s questionable legitimacy I’m not sure if he’d get a shout.

tl;dr, I’d say Margaret Clifford gets it, with Mary getting a decent shout from Catholic holdouts.

Indeed this is very true. Weren't the Stanleys also Catholic at this point as well?

 

[FalconHonour]

Indeed this is very true. Weren't the Stanleys also Catholic at this point as well?

The Stanleys were nothing if not pragmatic. They'll be whatever they need to be to take the throne.

 

[FalconHonour]

Anne Clifford/Edward, Viscount Beauchamp match to tie the claims together?

 

[VVD0D95]

The Stanleys were nothing if not pragmatic. They'll be whatever they need to be to take the throne.

This is true.

Anne Clifford/Edward, Viscount Beauchamp match to tie the claims together?

Oh hmm, that could be intriguing

 

[Maniakes]

Another candidate was Henry Hastings, 3rd Earl of Huntingdon. He was the senior descent of the Pole branch of the House of York, which was fairly distant genealogically, but he was still being proffered as a potential successor by virtue of being an adult male, firmly Protestant (of the strain that would later be termed Puritan), a well-connected high noble, and having clear and politically acceptable adult male successors (he was childless, but his younger brother had an heir and two spares at this point).

 

[VVD0D95]

Another candidate was Henry Hastings, 3rd Earl of Huntingdon. He was the senior descent of the Pole branch of the House of York, which was fairly distant genealogically, but he was still being proffered as a potential successor by virtue of being an adult male, firmly Protestant (of the strain that would later be termed Puritan), a well-connected high noble, and having clear and politically acceptable adult male successors (he was childless, but his younger brother had an heir and two spares at this point).

Intriguing would he have much support on the council?

 

[RedKing]

Indeed this is very true. Weren't the Stanleys also Catholic at this point as well?

True, I had forgotten about that. That could hurt their chances though.

The Stanleys were nothing if not pragmatic. They'll be whatever they need to be to take the throne.

Converting to Anglicanism is a small price to pay for a crown too. I could see an English version of “Paris is well worth a mass” happening.

Anne Clifford/Edward, Viscount Beauchamp match to tie the claims together?

I can’t find any daughter for Margaret called Anne Clifford. I am not sure if the alliance would even work with Margaret’s sons still kicking.

 

[FalconHonour]

True, I had forgotten about that. That could hurt their chances though.

Converting to Anglicanism is a small price to pay for a crown too. I could see an English version of “Paris is well worth a mass” happening.

I can’t find any daughter for Margaret called Anne Clifford. I am not sure if the alliance would even work with Margaret’s sons still kicking.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lady_Anne_Clifford.

Admittedly, I got my families confused, but Anne is also descended from Eleanor Brandon, so the marriage would still work to tie various claims together...,

 

[RedKing]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lady_Anne_Clifford.

Admittedly, I got my families confused, but Anne is also descended from Eleanor Brandon, so the marriage would still work to tie various claims together...,

Actually Anne Clifford’s father’s mother is Anne Dacre not Eleanor Brandon.

 

[Maniakes]

Intriguing would he have much support on the council?

Yes, it sounds like Huntingdon did have quite a bit of support (to his chagrine, as he was loyal to Elizabeth but having his name advanced as a candidate for the succession mad her suspicious of him). My main sources are "Heretics and Believers" by Peter Marshall and "Mary Queen of Scots" by Antonia Fraser, both of which describe the Protestants in Parliament and on the Council early in Elizabeth's reign being split between Henry Hastings and Catherine Grey, while Catholics inclined towards Mary of Scotland.

Huntingdon's support was probably strongest when Elizabeth was ill with smallpox in 1562, when Huntingdon was much younger (27 years old) and could have been expected to have kids of his own. The council had been seriously considering sending for either him of Catherine when Elizabeth seemed likely to die of her illness. He did continue to have significant political influence after that, though: he was entrusted with supervising Mary Stuart's imprisonment in England, he was appointed a Knight of the Garter in 1570, was one of Mary's judges in 1587, and was President of the Council of the North from 1572 onwards.

 

[VVD0D95]

Yes, it sounds like Huntingdon did have quite a bit of support (to his chagrine, as he was loyal to Elizabeth but having his name advanced as a candidate for the succession mad her suspicious of him). My main sources are "Heretics and Believers" by Peter Marshall and "Mary Queen of Scots" by Antonia Fraser, both of which describe the Protestants in Parliament and on the Council early in Elizabeth's reign being split between Henry Hastings and Catherine Grey, while Catholics inclined towards Mary of Scotland.

Huntingdon's support was probably strongest when Elizabeth was ill with smallpox in 1562, when Huntingdon was much younger (27 years old) and could have been expected to have kids of his own. The council had been seriously considering sending for either him of Catherine when Elizabeth seemed likely to die of her illness. He did continue to have significant political influence after that, though: he was entrusted with supervising Mary Stuart's imprisonment in England, he was appointed a Knight of the Garter in 1570, was one of Mary's judges in 1587, and was President of the Council of the North from 1572 onwards.

Ahh I see. But in 1584, who might they go for then if Huntingdon is seen as past it? Though 1562, Huntingdon to Mary queen of Scot’s?