@bm79
It is not that well known, but Max von Brandt was a big proponent OTL of taking or buying Hokkaido in the 1860s.
That really is fascinating. Any German colonial designs and adventures prior to 1884 look just so ATL in any case.
@Hörnla
Who says it is the third war (kind of) that is butterflied away? For those with intimate knowledge of the intra-german politics it is clear that 1866 might have been very different with just a few different events before. As a hint, if austrian foreign minister von Rechberg would have gotten the guarantees he wanted from Bismarck, the war would not have happened.
In ATL unlike OTL, Bismarck will have reasons to give von Rechberg these guarantees.
I am sorry, someone's earlier comment led me to that assumption. I fall easily for that, because, IMHO, German unification is easier to imagine without the Deutsch-Französischer Krieg than with the war of 1866. But I agree that in the 1860s, there is so much in fluid, there are so many plans and proposals - and actually lots of small steps being undertaken towards German unification prior to Jan 18th, 1871.
The British would not have done much about Hokkaido, no matter the moaning of the "Rule Britannia" pink glases. Many of them seem unable to read the UK´s own documents if it does not support their worldview. (rant off)
At that time, Japan was a side play, Germany would stay out of China, which the UK wanted and as long as India is not in danger, London would care less or not at all, what Germany does on an Island far from the Empire´s main possessions.
I agree that Hokkaido is not Britain's sphere of interest, also I say that such a step would be seen more positive in the 1860s than at the start of German colonialism in the 1880s when the scramble to claim the last open spaces was on and when Germany had become Europe's semi-hegemon.
But I am positive that there would be some sort of reaction towards a step in Prussian politics which would be seen as very novel.
Even accounting for the huge distance, the economic boost for the Zollverein states will be massive.
I do not want to spoil too much, so I just say that the ATL Shogun will be the equivalent to the OTL PM.
This development of the Shogunate makes perfect sense to me. But the economic boost....these distances really are huge at that point of time. The possibility for fair trade with the emerging industry of Germany (German economy in the 1860's is not nearly as strong as it is to be a few decades later) will boost Japan's economy first, in the long run, I agree, the possibilities are mutual and exponential!
HMMMM - did you just say the war of 1866 will not happen TTL???
This will definitely have impacts further down the road. as the War of 1866 had a secondary theater: Italy. Will Austria keep Venetia? and if AUstria is not fighting 1866 - what about the Ausgleich? Is Austria even part of the coalition against France if Otls 1870 war happens. Or is Austria busy taking over Mexico from France ??? - OMG....Mexico part iof a future Central powers ... and as the Empress is of Belgian descent is Belgium inclined to side with the CPs this time...????
The way Beer alludes at 1866 not happening, I do not see Franz Josef seeing himself forced to give up Venetia (and still fighting over it to keep face); and Italia won't take on Austria alone.
I speculate here, that we might see a re-run of 1859 somewhen around 1870 BUT this time with the rest of Germany not only mobilizing, but siding with Austria against France and Italy.
Concerning the Ausgleich, Empress Elisabeth was not a powerful political figure but whatever weight she had, she used to push the Hungarian cause. However, without a defeat and threat of imminent collapse of the monarchy, I expect such an Ausgleich to be much more carefully drafted and allow for Hungarian autonomy, but not such a devoluted Con-Federation. Butterflies might also lead to trialism at this point of time.
However, with such far-reaching butterflies, it is moot to speculate already about a global war in 1914....