Coffee pause in a bureau of the Faculty of Political Sciences, Heidelberg, Germany 2016
(Chuckling)
"Anything funny in the news, Klaus?"
"Yeah, I read an article in 'Spektrum' about that Seamus Harper guy from the Toronto National U in Efisga. His new work about the major nations on Earth and how they are connected got a lot of scientific knickers in a twist. Hell, even his own compatriots blasted him nearly as much as foreign scientists. But it got him in the news and according to the article here in the Science magazine Harper is now considered for work in Ottawa and Washington.
Still, I do not get why his book created so many waves. A lot of Harper´s work is new, but some parts are about things Reipold already wrote about in the 19th century. Why are they surprised now, Richard? It is not as if certain informations and theories are so new!"
"Don´t underestimate the power of dogma, bias and PR. I was at the meeting where Harper presented his findings first actually. Wew, quite a hot spot that day, I tell you! I have to say most of Harper´s findings are well worked out and I applaud him for ripping away some self-perpetuing myths, but in parts he falls into his nations own propaganda."
"How so? Have clemency with a visiting poor, little pre-historian."
"Ha, as if you are so unknowing, you old rascal! As I said, I find it great that Harper took a really good look at the existing power blocks, alliances and stuff, ripping away some 'fanon'. There are alliances not really worth the paper they are written on, despite the picture they try to or are projecting. Others are functioning 'as advertised'. Some are are even performing better than they are normally seen and as shown, it is not always the normal suspects.
Take Dr. Harpers own block, the NATZ and CONAM Defence Treaty. We leave the CDT outside for a moment, too many special articles to be an example, but the North American Trade Zone is an example of a zone better functioning than it is usually seen. What many observers overlook, not necessarily due to bad work, decades of all sides obfuscating their strengths has effects, the only reason the NATZ has so few members outside their core is the counter-pressure of Union Romanique, Asian Dawn and ourselves, the Zollverein.
Without one or two of these counters, the NATZ would play a larger role on the globe.
The Frenchies with their Union Romanique are a power block that is exactly what it says on the tin can. A new try to resurrect the Roman Empire, bringing it into the now with a strong French infusion and meant to show the world the admittedly not small power of mainly France and Italy.
The Central African League is what I would call more image than substance, unfortunately, I must add. The CAL is one of the few serious attempts to form a native African power block, the only other experiments into that direction are the Four Emirs Treaty and the Abessinian-led Savannah Union. I actually wish them luck, todays Africa has some interesting developments, but it is a patchwork of nations from large to micro-size worse than the Holy Roman Empire or India at their nadir.
The most developed parts of Africa, say Togoland, Afrique du Nord or the Rhodesia Dominion are attached more or less fast to existing blocks. They would be great linchpins for a budding African block. While Afrique is part of France and there will be no moves in such a direction for the forseeable future, I find it highly interesting that Togoland contemplates joining the Savannah Union and not Rhodesia, but British Kenia does it concerning the CAL."
"These are quite news to me. Is there some trouble in the making?"
"Well, Togoland has been independent for roughly a half-century now, it is not unusual that they begin to spread their wings. I do not see them breaking totally with Germany or the Zollverein, being ruled by us for 80 years left an imprint, but finding their own way, sure. My contacts in the Overseas Ministry, which watches a bit over our former colonies too, tell me the ministry is rather proud of Togoland, 'they are coming of political age' they say. As long as the relations Berlin-Lomé stay business as usual, Togoland has free hand.
I do not have as many connections into the Britannic Commonwealth as I have into say the NATZ, so what drives Kenia is a bit of mystery to me too. Either Kenia wants to leave Britain finally or it might be a try to 'infiltrate' the Central African League for BC gains. Maybe they want to go the Dominion route, might be as well.
But we drifted off the topic. As I mentioned several times already, Harper rightly earns his fame for his mostly bias-free work on the relations of the nations of Earth. But even he has some rose-tinted glasses on in some chapters of his book."
"And what are these, in your opinion?"
"Harper correctly points out that the unusual connectedness and closeness of the NATZ is underappreciated by the people and the scientific community, no question. But when he compares NATZ with other blocks and finds them more loosely connected, inferior to the compact feel of the North American Trade Zone, he becomes enamored with his own findings. Sometimes he simply does not ask himself: Is the distinction I found really as relevant as I think it to be?
Take the language factor. Yes, that most NATZ nations share English as the first language make some things easier for them and it is a show of commonality, but is it such a gamechanger? Not really, neither we nor take the Asian Dawn as an example, will ever have a common tongue beyond our working languages, but we still live! And as History shows, you can quite easily put your foot in the mouth even if you share the same mother tongue. The perk for the NATZ and some other cases is there, but it´s impact is limited.
Harper´s greatest mistake is one I doubt he can see, because of where he grew up. Even before the NATZ came to be, most nations which would form it were rather isolationistic. Long periods of time with few contact to nations outside the Americas were not unusual. While today there is more constant contact between Earth´s various regions, this state of being is just 3 decades old. Four, if we are magnanimous and count the early steps too.
For Harper and his collegues from over the Big Pond the 'we are an island' mood was the normal state of being while growing up and their history was full of that as well. I doubt he can correctly tax the impact of the Große Stille (Great Silence) following the Great Conflagration in other parts of the World.
His sharp analysis of why Zollverein, Asian Dawn or even the Union Romanique are less tightly knit together and more brittle than NATZ, the little Caribbean Trade Union or the image they project to the world is wellmade!
Scientifically speaking I even second his results that the diverse, varied cultures mashed together, the long histories with their political baggage mixed in prevent an integration and growing together as seamless as the NATZ or some smaller Unions did. We have many examples from around the globe how treaties and Unions broke apart when hitting rough waters if they shared few commonalities.
But I tell you why Harper´s conclusion lacks in the case of our Zollverein, the Union Romanique and where his life experience leads him astray.
While the UR has a very colourful membership, especially in the extra-European regions, the core members of France, Italy, Portugal and to a certain extend Romania share not only related languages, but a lot of history and cultural overlap. And the French, Italians and the Romanians were and are rather keen to export their culture and way of life to other regions. A new Roman Empire might not be in sight soon or maybe ever, but the UR´s mixing together of convenient parts of History with similar way of lives has created over time a pretty durable starting point to move from.
As far as our Zollverein is concerned: We are experienced with federal structures, unlike say Britain where London still is the focal point of government. We are used to slight differences in ruling and being an agglomeration of related tribes, going all the way back to the stem duchies of the old Kingdom of Germany over 1100 years ago and even earlier.
Where it comes to the most important members, our Germany and Japan built rather deep connections from early on and the Dutch are not so different from us as well.
Or take de-colonisation. Yes, we started ours because it was the right thing to do, but one point often overlooked by researchers is that a part of the reasons to do it was to get rid of regions which did not Germanise, Nipponise, etc. properly.
We don´t accept everybody into the Zollverein, even if it might be profitable, because the governments want members who agree to our political and economical basics. These points all show that the Zollverein is more tighly connected than it might seem in bare numbers, still Harper is correct that even with this UR and Zollverein are less integrated as the NATZ. due to their variance in cultures and people.
Now comes the reason why he is wrong and why the integration of Zollverein and UR might be less than than those of his own power block, but the stability is comparable. As I told you earlier, for the NATZ nations being comparativly insular is quite normal, so they think nothing of it and take it for granted that business as usual resumes fast.
But no matter the general political situation, in Eurasia staying in contact, even with your Archenemies was and is the norm. So the Große Stille following the World War was an anomaly, still this time left an impression. Four decades where few contact was made beyond some tourism and trade. The various treaties and blocks in Europe and Asia began to grow and look inward, becoming interconnected far more than it would be usually the case."
French High Command, Namur, Belgium Fall 1911
When the anticipated Grand offensive of the Germans did not materialise at the start of the war, to the astonishment of the western Entente powers, elation set in. The Germans had made a mistake! As planned, Belgium declared war on Germany on day 2 of the war, the French and British forces having waited just outside the border rushed through towards Germany, folowing Plan XVII.
The Belgian-British-French forces attacked Germany along the whole borderline from German Wallonia down to the Sundgau. The Entente advance had mixed results. In the northern part several breakthroughs could be made, in the South that was more limited. After 3 weeks the Germans made their countermove. The Entente had piled up an enormous amount of losses going against the entreched position of the Germans in their frst attack. So when the German counterattack hit them, not everywhere the positions held. On the other hand the Germans ran out of steam rather early, which the Generals Haig, Foch, Nivelle and Petain saw as a good sign.
But good sign or not, the war in the west soon became static, with several hundred kilometers of trenches dividing the opponents. The first major offensive of the Entente had taken most of the land Germany won from Belgium in the Romanic-Germanic War. In German-Wallonia Germany only still held the beleaguered Lüttich area, the rest together with some kilometers of the Prussian Rhine Province was in the hands of the Entente. Likewise, most the western part of Luxemburg, won in 1868 too, and part of the eastern portion of the Grand Duchy were under allied occupation. Then came a bulge in the frontline from the major German counterattack, who had taken most of the Argonne and a strip of Lorraine meeting the German Diedenhofen-Metz region in the East.
Further along the line, the "Falkenberg Spur" had fallen to the Entente, the rest followed the post-1888 border until meeting the Diuze area. Here the Germans had taken the initiative in September and had expanded their territory, taking Nancy and were trying to push northward to encircle the Entente forces in the Falkenberg region.
East of the "Nanzig Brückenkopf" fighting was going on in the Vogesen Mountains, but with few exceptions the front mainly followed the ante-bellum border. One of these exceptions was Markirch, which had changed hands seven times since June and at the moment was French-held.
In southern Alsace and the Sundgau, the situation was not bad for the Entente. While the small French enclave from 1888 in Alsace had naturally fallen quick into German hands, the French forces had take most of the Sundgau. Only the beleaguered cities Mömpelgard and Beffert were holding out.
For the allied Command it was clear that the German army would surely try to regain connection with the two fortress cities before winter or in spring the latest. To prevent this, a late year offensive had been planned to push deep into southern Alsace as well. And helping the advancing forces would be a new invention. The first examples of a rhomboid monstrosity of a vehicle. It´s designers called it following the secrecy codeword of it - a Tank.
There were rumours that the Germans had a similar vehicle, but no British, French or Belgian soldier had ever encountered one at the front. No matter, the designers were convinced their brainchild would help win the war, the Generals were less convinced. The new offensive would show how useful these slabs of metal could be