Effects on American Power if it remains in these borders?

[NiGHTS]

So, lets say that the US retains these boarders to the present day.

With these boarders, the US lacks the South West and the Pacific Coast.

How does this effect American power projection into Asia? How badly is America's economy effected by the lack of all the extra land and easy access to the Pacific?

 

[NiGHTS]

The navy would most likely be smaller in size. Foreign policy would probably focus on the Caribbean and Atlantic.

 

[Kaze]

The bonus would be all the California gold would have ended up in Mexican economy - so that is several billion dollars they did not have before - maybe, Mexican Peso would be maybe worth more than a dollar?

As for power projection - I expect Europe, Africa, or the Caribbean.

 

[Nephi]

Mexico here looks like it might be a politically stabile place, all the resources, it could be quite a regional power.

Which could put it in conflict with the US, or they could get along, and US is something of a second fiddle.

 

[Brady Kj]

I don't think the US would be second fiddle. It would still have richer soil. But the US might try hard to be allied with Mexico for gold and trade with Asia.
Does the US have Alaska in this scenario?

 

[NiGHTS]

I don't think the US would be second fiddle. It would still have richer soil. But the US might try hard to be allied with Mexico for gold and trade with Asia.
Does the US have Alaska in this scenario?

No, it went to Canada.

 

[IncongruousGoat]

This might mean good things for Native Americans, at least those living in the western part of TTL's US. Without as much motivation to drive a railroad to the Pacific, the West is likely to be even less settled than it was IOTL, which could mean large native-majority regions in the West.

As far as the economy is concerned, things are (obviously) not going to be as rosy as OTL, but the geography the US is left with is still highly favorable, with lots of good farmland and navigable waterways. Much of the territory that was lost is land that's very sparsely populated IOTL, mostly because it's really terrible land. One interesting twist is that TTL's American tech industry is likely to end up concentrated in and around Boston (mostly because of the availability of capital and world-class higher education), which means that TTL's tech industry will be synonymous not with the perpetually sunny urban sprawl of Silicon Valley, but with the the gray, winding, snowy streets of Silicon Harbor.

 

[NiGHTS]

This might mean good things for Native Americans, at least those living in the western part of TTL's US. Without as much motivation to drive a railroad to the Pacific, the West is likely to be even less settled than it was IOTL, which could mean large native-majority regions in the West.

As far as the economy is concerned, things are (obviously) not going to be as rosy as OTL, but the geography the US is left with is still highly favorable, with lots of good farmland and navigable waterways. Much of the territory that was lost is land that's very sparsely populated IOTL, mostly because it's really terrible land. One interesting twist is that TTL's American tech industry is likely to end up concentrated in and around Boston (mostly because of the availability of capital and world-class higher education), which means that TTL's tech industry will be synonymous not with the perpetually sunny urban sprawl of Silicon Valley, but with the the gray, winding, snowy streets of Silicon Harbor.

That's pretty cool. A tech industry centered on Boston. Silicon Harbor is awesome.

 

[IncongruousGoat]

And another thing: I found a PoD that could cause this (it wasn't very hard): Henry Clay winning the 1848 presidential election over James K. Polk. Specifically, Clay could have won the election by adopting a hardline anti-annexation platform, thus taking key Northern votes that OTL went to the abolitionist Liberty Party. Clay was opposed to the annexation of Texas, and by extension opposed to the annexation of the Oregon Country (IOTL, Polk supported the annexation of the Oregon Country as a means of getting anti-slavery Northern voters to approve his expansionist policies).

 

[NiGHTS]

And another thing: I found a PoD that could cause this (it wasn't very hard): Henry Clay winning the 1848 presidential election over James K. Polk. Specifically, Clay could have won the election by adopting a hardline anti-annexation platform, thus taking key Northern votes that OTL went to the abolitionist Liberty Party. Clay was opposed to the annexation of Texas, and by extension opposed to the annexation of the Oregon Country (IOTL, Polk supported the annexation of the Oregon Country as a means of getting anti-slavery Northern voters to approve his expansionist policies).

I'll keep this in mind should the usual "America is destined to expand" types come here.

Something interesting here is that the US won't have as much easy access to Texas oil. And California agriculture will also be missing from the US. In fact, missing all these territories, plus the Oregon territory, would mean that almost 30% of the US economy is gone. Although, I suppose that much of the talent that went to those areas in OTL will have to stick farther East. I imagine that cities out in the Midwest would much more densely populated, in addition to the already dense North East Cities. I wonder where Hollywood would go.

 

[Brady Kj]

I wonder where Hollywood would go.

Florida? Or more interesting: Georgia?

 

[Jasen777]

I don't think the US would be second fiddle. It would still have richer soil.

Yep the U.S. is still going to be super well off, with one of the best breadbaskets in the world and a large part of the industrial potential of OTL.

In fact, missing all these territories, plus the Oregon territory, would mean that almost 30% of the US economy is gone.

Worth noting that with 70% of OTL's economy the U.S. is still likely to be the world largest economy at some point in the 20th century.

 

[NiGHTS]

Yep the U.S. is still going to be super well off, with one of the best breadbaskets in the world and a large part of the industrial potential of OTL.




Worth noting that with 70% of OTL's economy the U.S. is still likely to be the world largest economy at some point in the 20th century.

30% is still a large chunk. And I think it feeds back into that 70% too. Like, how would the American industry go without that Texas oil coming in cheap with no tariffs? And then there's the whole loss of easy Pacific Ocean access. Trade with East Asia will be much slower as a result.

 

[IncongruousGoat]

Florida? Or more interesting: Georgia?

I think it's much more interesting to put the home of anglophone North American cinema in Vancouver. Vancouver is likely to be huge and wealthy ITTL, being the primary British/Canadian port on the Pacific and an easy route for American goods headed to markets in East Asia. It's also situated in a region that is, quite frankly, beautiful in a way that most of the TTL US just isn't. Plus, it's a good way to make TTL's US more than just a smaller, somewhat rejiggered OTL US.

 

[Brady Kj]

Trade with East Asia will be much slower as a result.

I'd say US trade with East Asia would be much dependent on maintaining friendly relations with Canada and Mexico, but not much slower at all.

Now, I agree Vancouver would be a more interesting choice for the home of Anglophone cinema. It is in a pretty region of the continent. However, I'd have to say there's many pretty regions. Vancouver's big advantage is that it's a short drive from diverse kinds of terrain, good for multiple kinds of movies. Something all of TTL's TV shows filmed there should take advantage of more often.

 

[NiGHTS]

What would become of American stereotypes in this scenario? Would the idea of Americans being cowboys still apply?

 

[Brady Kj]

Probably not. And they wouldn't have a lot of great places to film cowboy movies, for the same reason, they wouldn't own much of the west.

I expect Americans would romanticize their farmers, their founding fathers, their soldiers in various wars such as the War of 1812, and their inventors.
Now, if the movie industry is based in British Columbia, their romanticism of their soldiers and revolutionary war would be lower still, putting pressure on the United States to see itself largely how British Columbian movie makers see it.

 

[Jasen777]

30% is still a large chunk. And I think it feeds back into that 70% too. Like, how would the American industry go without that Texas oil coming in cheap with no tariffs? And then there's the whole loss of easy Pacific Ocean access. Trade with East Asia will be much slower as a result.

IDK. But the U.S. will likely be buying most of that oil, probably with U.S. companies, at the very least, helping to develop it. Trade with Asia will still be coming from California via rail. Is there less seen need for a canal without the U.S. on 2 oceans, or more, if they do want to shipping does want to get to the pacific from the East Coast?

Anyways even if the U.S. is at half of OTL's GDP, it's still likely to be the world's largest economy for most of the 20th century, though yes, being more of a first among near equals instead of overwhelming juggernaut is a bug change obviously.

And barring huge butterflies like Russia being on the channel, China industrializing early, etc.

 

[Dorozhand]

It looks like Mexico must have had more stable government and less Santa Anna. I think a good way for the country to be in a good spot going into the period of US westward expansionism would be for there to be a major civil war in the 1820s-30s. Like an earlier version of the Reform War and condensed into a shorter, more intense struggle.

This needed to happen for the conflict between centralists, the church, and federalists to be resolved. Valentín Gómez Farías could be valuable as a leader for the federalists, who could be defending his presidency against Santa Anna and company's coups. Such a conflict could also produce a generation of highly effective commanders. It also helps if, earlier on in the decade, Vicente Guerrero does not choose to leave the capital to lead the army himself, removing the precedent for appointed interim presidents seizing power in their absence as happened to Guerrero IOTL. Establishing a precedent for a stable presidency would go a long way towards preserving the First Federal Republic and even preventing things like the Siete Leyes from happening.

But even if Santa Anna does attempt his centralist coup, if Coahuila y Tejas remains together and joins with the other states in rebellion to restore the 1824 Constitution, the Tejanos might remain with Mexico if it is successful. Especially so if Tejas, as it gains population, is eventually spun off into its own state. Insurrections among American settlers of the kind that resulted in the miracle of independence IOTL under Santa Anna could be crushed in such a timeline, and filibusters likewise.

No internationally recognized independent Tejas would result in there being little justification in the US and abroad for a war with Mexico, while the civil war resolving in favor of the 1824-ist federalists, preserving stable leadership, enfranchising classes and ethnicities, and curtailing the power of the church could result in a faster pace for the development of Mexican industry. This in turn could result in Mexico obtaining more modern artillery in time for a war with the US, which alongside a more stable general staff and presidency could allow Mexico to inflict serious defeats on the US Army in a hypothetical war.

This war could possibly be over California, possibly a California filibuster republic established by US settlers rather like OTL R.o.Texas during an alt gold rush? This more stable state in the south might be better able to project power, and having established better communication and transportation infrastructure to more remote areas in the previous decade, probably at least prevents a successful invasion of Nuevo Mexico, preventing the US Army from linking with the Californians across the Rockies. The Commanche, however, might ally with the US in order to raid Tejas alongside a US invasion. Winfield Scott might be stalled or driven back into the sea, and Mexico could possibly be in a position to acquire a navy of some significance.

Either way, major defeats and setbacks would rapidly intensify anti-war sentiment in both the north and south, which was a not insignificant force IOTL. This could result in an anti-expansionist party taking the white house from the war hawks and pulling the country out of the war. In this scenario, Mexico could possibly end up with status quo ante bellum, or even be in a position to demand reparation from the US. A defeat like this would deal a lot of damage to expansionism and the Manifest Destiny idea. This map could be a logical result.

Another possible result could be an earlier alt-US Civil War resulting in large areas of the south obtaining independence. This alt-CSA could possibly come into conflict with Mexico, and Mexico would (as OTL, tbh) probably win. This might result in Mexican allies being formed from breakaway CS states, or even slave rebellions. An even better way to speed up the US Civil War would be to have the US go to war with Mexico again, and lose again. The UK could possibly support Mexico as well, and an Anglo-Mexican alliance could be an interesting possibility.

I also really like this Bolivia.

 

[NiGHTS]

Probably not. And they wouldn't have a lot of great places to film cowboy movies, for the same reason, they wouldn't own much of the west.

I expect Americans would romanticize their farmers, their founding fathers, their soldiers in various wars such as the War of 1812, and their inventors.
Now, if the movie industry is based in British Columbia, their romanticism of their soldiers and revolutionary war would be lower still, putting pressure on the United States to see itself largely how British Columbian movie makers see it.

Ever heard of the movie Revenant? They aren't exactly cowboys and there more in the mountains, but I feel like those kinds of guys would be romanticized a lot. Instead of the cowboy hat, it will probably be that with a raccoon tail. I'm thinking Johnny Appleseed types. I'm guessing that the typical American accent to foreigners won't be a Texan one,but a New Yorker one. With less land, I'm thinking that overall, foreign ideas of Americans will put more emphasis on living in cities and the culture that emerges from that.