Hokkaido (or Ezo), the northernmost of modern Japan's four islands, is by far the least densely populated--over 3x less densely populated than Shikoku. This can be attributed to both its climate--harsher for rice agriculture and especially the late date of settlement, as Japanese settlement only truly began in the late 19th century in response to Russian threats. Prior to that, Japanese influence existed yet was marginal. Yet Japanese influence in Hokkaido goes back as far as Abe no Hirafu in the Asuka Period, who from 658-660 campaigned in Northern Honshu and Hokkaido against the Emishi and Mishihase, the latter of whom have been identified as Okhotsk culture people ancestral to modern Ainu and Nivkhs (among other intepretations). In the Muromachi period centuries later, the Japanese began trading with the Ainu in the south of Hokkaido, a position which eventually became the privilege of the Matsumae Clan who controlled that trade, yet no real settlement took place.
It's popular here to suggest that a Mongol conquest of Japan (partial or total) could shake up society enough to cause a pushing north at some point. I do think this is a good POD, especially a partial Mongol Conquest which leaves the Emperor and his loyalists holding Kanto and Tohoku (maybe with a seat in Edo/Tokyo or Tagajo/Sendai). There also existed the office of the chinjufu shogun, who was initially responsible for defeating the Emishi in Honshu (and is loosely translated "commander-in-chief of the defense of the north"). The very title of shogun originally meant "barbarian subduing general". The chinjufu shogun was initially based in Tagajo, but the seat moved further north over the centuries to places like Iwase and Akita in Tohoku.
It is likely that a new office would be created for subduing Hokkaido and eventually ruling there, like the Dazaifu in Kyushu. The seat of such government would likely be somewhere in the Ishikari Plain or nearby, like at Chitose or Sapporo. Obviously, the holder of this office will be a very important political figure.
Although colder than Honshu, Hokkaido is suitable for rice-based agriculture and rice is grown throughout the island in all non-mountainous areas. Other crops like millet or buckwheat will thrive on Hokkaido and although lacking the prestige of rice they'll support a sizable base of peasants. Hokkaido of course has plenty of sites perfect for grazing livestock and fishing in the rich seas of the Sea of Okhotsk. There doesn't seem to be many obstacles toward the island developing like the other three Home Islands.
Thoughts on this? What would be the maximum population of Hokkaido--my estimate (based on Shikoku) would put the island at 12-15 million people in the late 20th century, and Sapporo (which geography favours) as the third largest city proper in Japan and close to Fukuoka as the fourth largest metropolitan area. What will be the overall effect on Japan TTL?
It's popular here to suggest that a Mongol conquest of Japan (partial or total) could shake up society enough to cause a pushing north at some point. I do think this is a good POD, especially a partial Mongol Conquest which leaves the Emperor and his loyalists holding Kanto and Tohoku (maybe with a seat in Edo/Tokyo or Tagajo/Sendai). There also existed the office of the chinjufu shogun, who was initially responsible for defeating the Emishi in Honshu (and is loosely translated "commander-in-chief of the defense of the north"). The very title of shogun originally meant "barbarian subduing general". The chinjufu shogun was initially based in Tagajo, but the seat moved further north over the centuries to places like Iwase and Akita in Tohoku.
It is likely that a new office would be created for subduing Hokkaido and eventually ruling there, like the Dazaifu in Kyushu. The seat of such government would likely be somewhere in the Ishikari Plain or nearby, like at Chitose or Sapporo. Obviously, the holder of this office will be a very important political figure.
Although colder than Honshu, Hokkaido is suitable for rice-based agriculture and rice is grown throughout the island in all non-mountainous areas. Other crops like millet or buckwheat will thrive on Hokkaido and although lacking the prestige of rice they'll support a sizable base of peasants. Hokkaido of course has plenty of sites perfect for grazing livestock and fishing in the rich seas of the Sea of Okhotsk. There doesn't seem to be many obstacles toward the island developing like the other three Home Islands.
Thoughts on this? What would be the maximum population of Hokkaido--my estimate (based on Shikoku) would put the island at 12-15 million people in the late 20th century, and Sapporo (which geography favours) as the third largest city proper in Japan and close to Fukuoka as the fourth largest metropolitan area. What will be the overall effect on Japan TTL?