Effects of an Imperial German (and later Imperial Japanese) Philippines

[cex]

POD: In 1894, Marti is caught and arrested as he attempts to depart from Florida with soldiers and guns instead of getting released, or alternatively, he dies before the entire expedition takes place, or Eugene Debs is elected POTUS in 1896, leading to there being no Spanish-American War. Some time later, a bankrupt Spain sells the Philippines to the Kaiser. After Imperial Germany is defeated in WWI, the Paris Peace Conference grants the Philippines to Japan as a LON mandate, who had seized it during the war.

How would the Philippines have developed under German(and later Japanese) rule? Obviously, there is no chance of Japan respecting its nominal mission of preparing its LON mandate for independence, but in any case, pretty much anyone is preferable to rule the Philippines than King Leopold II of Belgium, who was another prospective purchaser for the islands.

 

[Nivek]

POD: In 1894, Marti is caught and arrested as he attempts to depart from Florida with soldiers and guns instead of getting released, or alternatively, he dies before the entire expedition takes place, or Eugene Debs is elected POTUS in 1896, leading to there being no Spanish-American War. Some time later, a bankrupt Spain sells the Philippines to the Kaiser. After Imperial Germany is defeated in WWI, the Paris Peace Conference grants the Philippines to Japan as a LON mandate, who had seized it during the war.

How would the Philippines have developed under German(and later Japanese) rule? Obviously, there is no chance of Japan respecting its nominal mission of preparing its LON mandate for independence, but in any case, pretty much anyone is preferable to rule the Philippines than King Leopold II of Belgium, who was another prospective purchaser for the islands.

There also what will be of Cuba and Puerto Rico?

Philippines archipelago would be a nightmare for japanese if the German proper staffed it before savarejo( And with the warry against the japanese they will) if Germany collapse they might become defacto and jure independent

 

[Belka DNW]

There also what will be of Cuba and Puerto Rico?

Philippines archipelago would be a nightmare for japanese if the German proper staffed it before savarejo( And with the warry against the japanese they will) if Germany collapse they might become defacto and jure independent

Couldn't Spain enact a dominion-like system for Cuba and Puerto Rico? At some point some one with a brain in Spain would propose autonomy for these disconected regions.

Also, Spain selling the Philippines for just money doesn't look that plausible, they could ask for German backing for Spanish claims in Morocco.

 

[Nivek]

Couldn't Spain enact a dominion-like system for Cuba and Puerto Rico? At some point some one with a brain in Spain would propose autonomy for these disconected regions.

Unironically that was proposed in the 40-60s? and Spain Always say no, after that, Independence become the main drive of the liberal-minded cubans and puerto ricans

Also, Spain selling the Philippines for just money doesn't look that plausible, they could ask for German backing for Spanish claims in Morocco.

That could be implicit in the Philippines Sales. Also before the S-A war,Spain was also thinking of abandoning the Philippines to salvage Cuba

 

[kasumigenx]

Also, Spain selling the Philippines for just money doesn't look that plausible, they could ask for German backing for Spanish claims in Morocco.

It is not plausible, because Spain wanted to sell the Philippines to Britain who only wanted to get North Borneo and Britain had designs for it, The only country that can buy it from Spain is a close ally of Britain who they partner with and supports their plans in North Borneo.

 

[Lalli]

Couldn't Spain enact a dominion-like system for Cuba and Puerto Rico? At some point some one with a brain in Spain would propose autonomy for these disconected regions.

Unfortunately Spanish imperialist/conservative politicians and their supporters had too much that someone with brain and better ideas could even survive. Liberals reforms were pretty often stopped and too liberal PM was either removed or assassinated. And even if you would have more liberal, smarter and mroe competent king it wouldn't help either.

 

[Krueger]

How would the Philippines have developed under German(and later Japanese) rule? Obviously, there is no chance of Japan respecting its nominal mission of preparing its LON mandate for independence.

If you ask me, I think there are two possible scenarios before Germany taking the PH: Number one is that a war similar to the PH-US war shall occur after the Americans (lets say they were kicked out per Luna's suggestion to Aguinaldo, or the naval skirmish with the US ends with a German victory), or that the government of Aguinaldo shall become a protectorate of the Empire. The second one is more plausible since many of the Philippine principalia (including Jose Rizal) already respected and admired Germany as a country, so some resistance wouldn't be too hard on the Germans.

As for its development, I think in the first years, bare development shall occur, although it is possible that Berlin shall grant autonomy to Manila, albeit with Berlin's obligation to defend the islands. With the reforms after the infamous genocides in its African colonies, the Philippines would be fine, even (possible) having its own right to have an army similar on how the US allowed the PH Commonwealth army to be established in 1935.

The best scenario for PH after WW1 is to become independent, of course. We do not want the country becoming a mere puppet of Japan (or even had Batanes and parts of N. Luzon to become part of Japan proper) and undergo Japanization and similar scenarios like with Korea.

Pretty much anyone is preferable to rule the Philippines than King Leopold II of Belgium, who was another prospective purchaser for the islands.

Lmao I would rather have conservative, and religiously influenced Spain to govern the islands rather than being Congoed.

 

[Krueger]

Philippines archipelago would be a nightmare for japanese if the German proper staffed it before savarejo( And with the warry against the japanese they will) if Germany collapse they might become defacto and jure independent

The Japanese should also expect a much more formidable Philippine army and navy too, as well as the strong desire by the former Katipuneros to become independent. In ATL this Philippines was unlike any Asian colony of Germany, it was an actual protectorate (disregarding Togoland since it was treated more as a colony), a republic since 1899, and had definitely undergo reforms under Luna and successive defense ministers of the col.

Watch out for the British in the south tho.

 

[cex]

There also what will be of Cuba and Puerto Rico?

Philippines archipelago would be a nightmare for japanese if the German proper staffed it before savarejo( And with the warry against the japanese they will) if Germany collapse they might become defacto and jure independent

With an averted Spanish-American War, Cuba and Puerto Rico would have remained Spanish. Given the racial mores of 1914, hardly anybody considered Filipinos capable of self-rule.

Couldn't Spain enact a dominion-like system for Cuba and Puerto Rico? At some point some one with a brain in Spain would propose autonomy for these disconected regions.

Also, Spain selling the Philippines for just money doesn't look that plausible, they could ask for German backing for Spanish claims in Morocco.

Unironically that was proposed in the 40-60s? and Spain Always say no, after that, Independence become the main drive of the liberal-minded cubans and puerto ricans


That could be implicit in the Philippines Sales. Also before the S-A war,Spain was also thinking of abandoning the Philippines to salvage Cuba

I could see this happening.

It is not plausible, because Spain wanted to sell the Philippines to Britain who only wanted to get North Borneo and Britain had designs for it, The only country that can buy it from Spain is a close ally of Britain who they partner with and supports their plans in North Borneo.

Spain offered to sell the Philippines to Leopold II of Belgium, who in 1898 was hardly a British ally in colonial matters e.g. in Africa.

Unfortunately Spanish imperialist/conservative politicians and their supporters had too much that someone with brain and better ideas could even survive. Liberals reforms were pretty often stopped and too liberal PM was either removed or assassinated. And even if you would have more liberal, smarter and mroe competent king it wouldn't help either.

Had Leopold von Hohenzollern been elected King in 1870, Spain would have recovered Roussilon and Cerdanya and treaded an undoubtedly stronger, pro-German path. We may even see a Quadruple Alliance in 1882.

 

[Nivek]

Had Leopold von Hohenzollern been elected King in 1870, Spain would have recovered Roussilon and Cerdanya and treaded an undoubtedly stronger, pro-German path. We may even see a Quadruple Alliance in 1882.

A Prussian on the Spanish throne did it. just without THOSE TWO AREAS, stability and investment from Germany did wonders for Spain

 

[cex]

If you ask me, I think there are two possible scenarios before Germany taking the PH: Number one is that a war similar to the PH-US war shall occur after the Americans (lets say they were kicked out per Luna's suggestion to Aguinaldo, or the naval skirmish with the US ends with a German victory), or that the government of Aguinaldo shall become a protectorate of the Empire. The second one is more plausible since many of the Philippine principalia (including Jose Rizal) already respected and admired Germany as a country, so some resistance wouldn't be too hard on the Germans.

As for its development, I think in the first years, bare development shall occur, although it is possible that Berlin shall grant autonomy to Manila, albeit with Berlin's obligation to defend the islands. With the reforms after the infamous genocides in its African colonies, the Philippines would be fine, even (possible) having its own right to have an army similar on how the US allowed the PH Commonwealth army to be established in 1935.

The mildly pro-German Filipino elites would have certainly acquiesced in a protectorate arrangement.

Lmao I would rather have conservative, and religiously influenced Spain to govern the islands rather than being Congoed.

I would agree that both Cuba and the Philippines would have been better off without decades of instability introduced by the Americans. Had the CSA won the Civil War, Maximilian’s Mexico would have survived, and US ability to enforce the Monroe Doctrine would have been even more severely impaired.

The best scenario for PH after WW1 is to become independent, of course. We do not want the country becoming a mere puppet of Japan (or even had Batanes and parts of N. Luzon to become part of Japan proper) and undergo Japanization and similar scenarios like with Korea.

Woodrow Wilson certainly did not envision self-determination as extending to non-white people.

The Japanese should also expect a much more formidable Philippine army and navy too, as well as the strong desire by the former Katipuneros to become independent. In ATL this Philippines was unlike any Asian colony of Germany, it was an actual protectorate (disregarding Togoland since it was treated more as a colony), a republic since 1899, and had definitely undergo reforms under Luna and successive defense ministers of the col.

I do agree that Luna would have been able to collaborate more constructively with Germany.

Watch out for the British in the south tho.

I could see a N-S partition of the Philippines between Japan and Britain: their Alliance hasn’t been broken yet.

 

[cex]

A Prussian on the Spanish throne did it. just without THOSE TWO AREAS, stability and investment from Germany did wonders for Spain

A pro-German Spain under a Prussian Hohenzollern would by itself have likely prevented a Spanish-American War, given the established US unwillingness to directly confront continental coalitions. Only Spain’s relative diplomatic isolation in Europe and general instability enabled such a war of aggression.

 

[Nivek]

A pro-German Spain under a Prussian Hohenzollern would by itself have likely prevented a Spanish-American War, given the established US unwillingness to directly confront continental coalitions. Only Spain’s relative diplomatic isolation in Europe and general instability enabled such a war of aggression.

Unironically in that TL the war still happened, the USA LOSS IT HARD.

 

[Krueger]

I could see a N-S partition of the Philippines between Japan and Britain: their Alliance hasn’t been broken yet.

Should that have happened, the Moro regions would went to Britain and the rest to the Japanese.

 

[cex]

Should that have happened, the Moro regions would went to Britain and the rest to the Japanese.

How would the Moro regions have been affected by British rule?

 

[Krueger]

How would the Moro regions have been affected by British rule?

The Moros were the mortal enemies of Christian Filipinos since time immemorial. Heck they even had calls to the US to be separated as its own colony, guaranteeing it's independence from PH. So I think something similar would happen to the southern islands of a German Philippines ATL.

 

[Metempsychosis]

The Moros were the mortal enemies of Christian Filipinos since time immemorial. Heck they even had calls to the US to be separated as its own colony, guaranteeing it's independence from PH. So I think something similar would happen to the southern islands of a German Philippines ATL.

Filipinos would not accept Mindanao getting split away: it has been part of our country for most of that history. That's why Butuan and Zamboanga were established during the Spanish period.

For that matter, and for all that people claim the Moros as completely free of Spain, it is clear that Sulu and Maguindanao were never completely independent of Manila's whims. The sultans kept on making and breaking treaties with Manila, and Manila kept on sending troops to pacify the area against pirates and slavers.

 

[Nivek]

How would the Moro regions have been affected by British rule?

The Moros were the mortal enemies of Christian Filipinos since time immemorial. Heck they even had calls to the US to be separated as its own colony, guaranteeing it's independence from PH. So I think something similar would happen to the southern islands of a German Philippines ATL.

Under German system, they wouldn't be stateen under the Philippines? Plus iirc the British wanted to add the southern Philippines to Borneo, so that would be a Muslim majority colony if the British get the Philippines at all

 

[cex]

The Moros were the mortal enemies of Christian Filipinos since time immemorial. Heck they even had calls to the US to be separated as its own colony, guaranteeing it's independence from PH. So I think something similar would happen to the southern islands of a German Philippines ATL.

Do the Moros identify at all with the Muslim inhabitants of British North Borneo?

Filipinos would not accept Mindanao getting split away: it has been part of our country for most of that history. That's why Butuan and Zamboanga were established during the Spanish period.

For that matter, and for all that people claim the Moros as completely free of Spain, it is clear that Sulu and Maguindanao were never completely independent of Manila's whims. The sultans kept on making and breaking treaties with Manila, and Manila kept on sending troops to pacify the area against pirates and slavers.

Once they conquer it from the Germans, would the Japanese have accepted a Second Philippine Republic-style protectorate arrangement?

Under German system, they wouldn't be stateen under the Philippines? Plus iirc the British wanted to add the southern Philippines to Borneo, so that would be a Muslim majority colony if the British get the Philippines at all

What effects would a Japanese-controlled Philippines, Guam and Wake have had on the Pacific War, even assuming one happens at all (In the absence of a Spanish-American War, Samoa would have been entirely German, and likely transferred to New Zealand after World War I)?

 

[Nivek]

Japanese have accepted a Second Philippine Republic-style protectorate arrangement?

No