Effects of 19th century Independent Philippines on Europe

Timaeus · Oct 21, 2015

So, I have been contemplating writing this TL where the Philippines gains its independence alongside the rest of the Spanish empire during the 1820s Latin American wars of independence, and I'm wondering what the great powers of the west would do in such a case.

An independent Catholic realm, but one with liberal leaders of a revolutionary government and a bunch of friar orders leading the opposition. Westernized, if not Western, in culture, with a strategic position for trade with China.

I haven't read enough about the era, though, so if anyone has clues on sources I can use, it would be much appreciated.

walmart · Oct 21, 2015

germany and Italy would never form

but probably little to no effect on europe

Byzantion · Oct 21, 2015

Timaeus said:
So, I have been contemplating writing this TL where the Philippines gains its independence alongside the rest of the Spanish empire during the 1820s Latin American wars of independence, and I'm wondering what the great powers of the west would do in such a case.

An independent Catholic realm, but one with liberal leaders of a revolutionary government and a bunch of friar orders leading the opposition. Westernized, if not Western, in culture, with a strategic position for trade with China.

I haven't read enough about the era, though, so if anyone has clues on sources I can use, it would be much appreciated.

Would be interesting how this would alter Japan´s future ambitions, modernisation and rise to power. A developed Phillipines wich successfully pulls a Meiji could be, if well organized a serious player in the whole Pacific. But it is questionable, that the government would gain controll on the whole ethnically diverse Phillipine Islands , for there would be still Islamic insurgencies from Moros etc.

ramones1986 · Oct 21, 2015

Personally, I think the European countries would be more or less indifferent to an early independent Philippines, as long as their citizens who were trading there were safe and free.

After all,El Caudillo Novales was pragmatic enough that European traders were essential in the economic progress of the country.

Masky · Oct 21, 2015

I think its effects on Asia would be more interesting, especially if somehow there is a large cultural movement to "De-Hispanicize" the Philippines and make the islands' Asian traditions more prominent.

Cuāuhtemōc · Oct 21, 2015

Masky said:
I think its effects on Asia would be more interesting, especially if somehow there is a large cultural movement to "De-Hispanicize" the Philippines and make the islands' Asian traditions more prominent.

If TTL's Filipino independence movement is anything like Latin America's with the criollos leading it, such a movement will never come to be. It'll be a predominately Spanish-speaking nation with the desire to Europeanize itself as much as humanely possible through immigration.

Timaeus · Oct 21, 2015

Byzantion said:
Would be interesting how this would alter Japan´s future ambitions, modernisation and rise to power. A developed Phillipines wich successfully pulls a Meiji could be, if well organized a serious player in the whole Pacific. But it is questionable, that the government would gain controll on the whole ethnically diverse Phillipine Islands , for there would be still Islamic insurgencies from Moros etc.

If I can get to writing this TL, I'll definitely be touching on what happens between Japan and the Philippines.

Also, the Spanish ruled most of the Philippine Islands from afar, and ruled it even when it became a French puppet, so I don't see why a native Criollo class would find it difficult.

Cuāuhtemōc said:
If TTL's Filipino independence movement is anything like Latin America's with the criollos leading it, such a movement will never come to be. It'll be a predominately Spanish-speaking nation with the desire to Europeanize itself as much as humanely possible through immigration.

I was thinking the same thing. The Philippines is not Indonesia, which has its classical cultures in the Majapahits and Srivijayas. The closest to a de-Hispanization movement we'd have would be more akin to the Romantic movement than anything else. The pre-Hispanic heroes of the Philippines would be more at home with the likes of Boudica and Ragnar Lodbrok, more symbolic and legendary than truly historical.

On that note, though, the effects on Asian nationalism in general are interesting and I will be using them in my TL when I have enough of an idea of the direction this TL will go.

Namayan · Oct 22, 2015

I see little effects to European policy short term. Long term would depend on far development would be for the Philippines.

the problems of the Philippines in 1820 would be the same problems as Mexico at the start. It could diverge by time or could go the same route.

Philippines both de facto and de jure would be otl visayas, Luzon, Palau, Guam, Marianas. De jure would be Mindanao.

Expansion can go through Mindanao for de facto control. Since Dutch totally hasn't conquered Indonesia by this time, perhaps inclusion to the Philippines of certain parts of otl Indonesia.

I predict a Dutch-Philippines conflict mid to end of 19th century. End of 19th century to early 20th century a Japanese conflict.

In order for Philippines to become successful it needs to unify all new lands thru language and religion. This means Spanish, Roman Catholicism conversion by force or assimilation. With the Moros or anyone who will resist, it has to be forced. It would kind of like otl USA expansion to the west, brutal but necessary for development/expansion.

brokenman · Oct 22, 2015

Being the only independent colony in the East, the Philippines would get many suitors primarily for its prime harbors and potential naval bases and secondly for being a proxy, just like what is Japan is to Britain in the coming times. That is, unless Japan gets to the islands first.

Joseph Solis in Australia · Oct 22, 2015

There will be significant Philippine expatriate community especially in Spain because for sure an independent 19th century Philippines would incline into Europeanization and Hispanization. These expats may come back to the Philippines and propagate European values to the populace. An independent 19th century Philippines would be likely more open to foreign trade, investment, and immigration than OTL. Therefore, the Philippines would likely evolve into a Spanish-speaking Europeanized society like in Mexico.

ramones1986 · Oct 22, 2015

Joseph Solis in Australia said:
Therefore, the Philippines would likely evolve into a Spanish-speaking Europeanized society like in Mexico.

How about the chance that Manila and surrounding areas would become Chavacano-speaking? I recalled that there was a variant of Chavacano spoken in Ermita (Ermiteño), which was more or less related to Caviteño.

Cuāuhtemōc · Oct 22, 2015

ramones1986 said:
How about the chance that Manila and surrounding areas would become Chavacano-speaking? I recalled that there was a variant of Chavacano spoken in Ermita (Ermiteño), which was more or less related to Caviteño.

There would be more Chavacano speakers but the official language would likely just be standard Spanish. Whatever the elite decides is what the masses will be obliged to learn.

ramones1986 · Oct 22, 2015

Cuāuhtemōc said:
There would be more Chavacano speakers but the official language would likely just be standard Spanish. Whatever the elite decides is what the masses will be obliged to learn.

Or bilingualism or trilingualism, depends on the province.

Cuāuhtemōc · Oct 22, 2015

ramones1986 said:
Or bilingualism or trilingualism, depends on the province.

I guess it could be something like Haiti's situation where the educated and wealthy use Spanish and the masses use Chavacano.