East Asia with a weak or colonized Japan

[walmart]

Say that Japan ends up going the route of either Thailand or Egypt in the 19th century. What is the impact on East Asia with Japan either too weak to make any moves or under European control ?

I imagine Chinese and Korean relations with Japan would be far better for obvious reasons. Given issues with the Qing be that minority rule and corruption, I don’t see a lack of a Sino-Japanese war doing anything but delaying the end of the dynasty. Korea is in a rather interesting place, given it would be in a continued Chinese orbit under a traditionalist faction.

 

[DocJamore]

It is a little deterministic to say Korea is doomed to be under China’s thumb with a weaker Japan. A Korea that opens up by itself might be worried about Chinese threats to its sovereignty. To secure independence from China, good relations with foreign powers would be required and Japan would be near the top of that list. So a weaker Japan might in fact secure Korean friendship and an alliance.

 

[walmart]

It is a little deterministic to say Korea is doomed to be under China’s thumb with a weaker Japan.

From my understanding, Korea has historically been under Chinese domination until the First Sino-Japanese war. So Chinese domination does seem quite natural especially with a traditionalist faction in charge.

 

[Enigmajones]

Without a powerful Japan it’s likely the Korean Empire will survive.

 

[DocJamore]

From my understanding, Korea has historically been under Chinese domination until the First Sino-Japanese war. So Chinese domination does seem quite natural especially with a traditionalist faction in charge.

Eh, that is oversimplifying things a bit. Korea paid tribute to when China was powerful, along with the other members of the Old Tributary system. When China was in some sort of crisis, the tribute would stop and Korea was basically independent.

Why would a "traditionalist faction" place another country's interests over their own country? We can say the greatest tradition of Korea is avoiding becoming a Chinese province. The Chinese tributary system along with "suzerainty" does not have any place in modern notions Westphalian sovereignty, which TTL world was advancing towards. If TTL Korea wants to be seen as a country, it will be adopting the Westphalian model of interacting with other countries. Under that model, you are either independent, or you're a province and Korea would very much want to avoid being seen as a Chinese province.

It does depend on what happens in TTL China, nor does this need to happen all at once, but modern Sovereignty and Chinese Suzerainty are not compatible concepts.

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

From my understanding, Korea has historically been under Chinese domination until the First Sino-Japanese war. So Chinese domination does seem quite natural especially with a traditionalist faction in charge.

In addition to what @DocJamore mentioned, tributary relations didn't involve active Chinese intervention in Korean politics or policy without Korea requesting it (like when the Japanese invaded Korea in the Imjin War and the Joseon requested Ming support or when the Joseon court was panicking over the Donghak Peasant Rebellion and requested Qing support). China may have been considered the center of civilization, culture, and power and the Joseon king was technically subservient to the Ming and Qing, but the closest to actual Chinese political domination over Korea was the Yuan dynasty's overlordship over the Goryeo dynasty in the 13th century.

The Joseon did tend to align with the Ming and Qing, but it didn't get involved in Chinese internal affairs, neither was it expected to get involved. AFAIK, the Joseon did nothing when the Three Feudatories revolted against the Qing or when the Taiping were rampaging through the south, despite those being before King Gojong declaring Korea to be an independent empire. Contrast that with provinces under Qing control sending troops to put down the rebellions.

Without a powerful Japan it’s likely the Korean Empire will survive.

The Korean Empire only came about because the Japanese humiliated the Qing in the 1st Sino-Japanese War. Without that, it would take an equally shocking collapse of Chinese prestige and a reversal of the world order to have the Joseon king make the de facto situation de jure. Which an alt-Xinhai Revolution and ensuing events would likely cause (and those would likely still happen with or without Japan, plenty of other things were going wrong in the Qing Empire). That said, would they survive Russian attempts at carving out a sphere in the region? That probably depends on how well the Joseon court can balance foreign influence and avoid getting dominated by one power or another (which they didn't do too well historically).

 

[GameBawesome]

Without a powerful Japan it’s likely the Korean Empire will survive.

Would there even be a Korean Empire? The Korean Empire was formed after the Japanese won the First Sino-Japanese War, and Joseon broke off their tributary status with Qing China, as doing so was seen by many Korean politicians, like the Gaehwa Party saw it as a good way to maintain independence from larger nations (Like that worked). Without an expansionist Japanese Empire, Joseon may remain close to Qing China, although reforms may still happen.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

It is a little deterministic to say Korea is doomed to be under China’s thumb with a weaker Japan. A Korea that opens up by itself might be worried about Chinese threats to its sovereignty. To secure independence from China, good relations with foreign powers would be required and Japan would be near the top of that list. So a weaker Japan might in fact secure Korean friendship and an alliance.

It could open by itself or it could be opened up by some western power on a Matthew Perry-style mission to Korea instead of Japan.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Obviously, WHEN is important.

Is Japan not contesting Sakhalin and the Kurils with Russia?

Is Japan leaving Okinawa for the Chinese?

These pre-date the Sino-Japanese War, and in OTL were resolved at least partly in Japan's favour.

So, the simplest when would be for the fall of the Bakufu to be avoided? Instead of a Meiji restoration, or instead of a renewed and empowered Bakufu state allied with the French, the status quo ante continues, and a moribund state continues?

Or does the Satsuma war succeed, crashing the Meiji and restoring a hybrid of the shogunate and imperial system, which pleases the conservative nobility but lacks the dynamism of the empire?

 

[walmart]

Obviously, WHEN is important.

I was thinking that the Order to expel barbarians could result in a Boxer type war for Japan leading to a downwards spiral for country .

 

[Genkou]

Stronger Russian influence in the region, China can say goodbye to its colonies like Mongolia, Turkestan, Manchuria and maybe even Korea.

 

[walmart]

Stronger Russian influence in the region, China can say goodbye to its colonies like Mongolia, Turkestan, Manchuria and maybe even Korea.

I could see Manchuria be lost for a time but Japan didn't have any influence on events in Turkestan which were settled with the Treaty of Saint Petersburg.

 

[Vae Victus]

Without the Sino-Japanese Wars to really drive in how badly the Qings have run the country, would they still have done their half hearted modernization programs?
Without a next door aggressor to really beat them down, i dont think the Russian empire is a sufficient stand in, they nibble away but not hammer down. The more Russia encroaches on China, i can totally see the UK or German empire start pumping investment, trainers, and weapons into China to be a counterweight and prevent Russia from growing stronger.

Russia will truly be encircled if a revanchist rejuvenated Chinese empire arises after other European powers pump them full of western tech. Maybe a China with a less turbulent 19th century could enter the 20th in much better shape and not fall into Warlord period. Or not....

 

[Avrorrange]

Without the Sino-Japanese Wars to really drive in how badly the Qings have run the country, would they still have done their half hearted modernization programs?
Without a next door aggressor to really beat them down, i dont think the Russian empire is a sufficient stand in, they nibble away but not hammer down. The more Russia encroaches on China, i can totally see the UK or German empire start pumping investment, trainers, and weapons into China to be a counterweight and prevent Russia from growing stronger.

Russia will truly be encircled if a revanchist rejuvenated Chinese empire arises after other European powers pump them full of western tech. Maybe a China with a less turbulent 19th century could enter the 20th in much better shape and not fall into Warlord period. Or not....

The half-hearted modernization programs were well in place before even the First Sino-Japanese War. It’s after the war that it went into overdrive during the Hundred Days Reform, before being overturned by Cixi, and then re-started following the Boxer Rebellion.

I can totally see the UK/Germany pumping investment, trainers and weapons to turn China into a counterweight to Russia like you mentioned. Since Japan‘s purpose was basically that in British strategy, and was chosen because they punched above their weight and crushed the Qing Dynasty.

 

[Octosteel]

In addition to what @DocJamore mentioned, tributary relations didn't involve active Chinese intervention in Korean politics or policy without Korea requesting it (like when the Japanese invaded Korea in the Imjin War and the Joseon requested Ming support or when the Joseon court was panicking over the Donghak Peasant Rebellion and requested Qing support). China may have been considered the center of civilization, culture, and power and the Joseon king was technically subservient to the Ming and Qing, but the closest to actual Chinese political domination over Korea was the Yuan dynasty's overlordship over the Goryeo dynasty in the 13th century.

The Joseon did tend to align with the Ming and Qing, but it didn't get involved in Chinese internal affairs, neither was it expected to get involved. AFAIK, the Joseon did nothing when the Three Feudatories revolted against the Qing or when the Taiping were rampaging through the south, despite those being before King Gojong declaring Korea to be an independent empire. Contrast that with provinces under Qing control sending troops to put down the rebellions.


The Korean Empire only came about because the Japanese humiliated the Qing in the 1st Sino-Japanese War. Without that, it would take an equally shocking collapse of Chinese prestige and a reversal of the world order to have the Joseon king make the de facto situation de jure. Which an alt-Xinhai Revolution and ensuing events would likely cause (and those would likely still happen with or without Japan, plenty of other things were going wrong in the Qing Empire). That said, would they survive Russian attempts at carving out a sphere in the region? That probably depends on how well the Joseon court can balance foreign influence and avoid getting dominated by one power or another (which they didn't do too well historically).

James Blaine was really interested in Korea, responsible for the expedition that led to the 1882 treaty (though it didn't do much) and tried again when he returned as Secretary of State under Harrison (though his poor health and the general Joseon court chaos leading to this not meaning much). Korea was seen as a great place to get a coaling station and influence near China back before America had the Philippines in their control. Better yet, Gojong seemed to want it. Ever since the Imo Incident, Korea had Yuan Shikai directing a lot of its affairs which the Koreans didn't like. There was a lot of attempts at outreach made by Gojong which he tried to entice the Americans by offering concessions in the gold mines up north. I'm still not entirely clear why it didn't really work, whether it was poor strategy or communication on Korea's part or America genuinely wasn't interested.