Earliest Possible Byzantine Collapse Post-Islam?

[Nevermore]

It would seem that the Byzantine Empire, and scenarios pertaining to its continued existence in some fashion, is quite the popular subject on AH.com. However, I've rarely seen a time line deal with (perhaps due to the B.E.'s popularity) a scenario where it collapses earlier than OTL. So I wonder - is there any way in the mid 600s to 700s that the Byzantine Empire can collapse?

I understand that this is probably quite hard. I'm not sure when the Byzantine Empire's 'rot' settled in, and I am aware of Constantinople's formidable defenses and the always present danger of Greek/Byzantine Fire at their beck and call. So, suppose, the Muslim armies manage to pull off something - without it being ASB, what might the situation realistically look like?

I suppose the city itself need not fall, just perhaps the loss of territory except for Constantinople itself. Or, well, perhaps a rump Byzantine Empire can flee elsewhere? Greece? A part of Byzantine Italy?

What effects does a collapsed Byzantine Empire have on the Sassanids, as well? I'm interested in hearing everyone's thoughts on the matter.

 

[Workable Goblin]

The Muslims attacked the Byzantine Empire several times relatively early on OTL, so a reasonably early fall is possible. Poorer emperors, bad luck, or not making some very useful technological breakthroughs could all have had a major effect on the Empire.

Even if you discount that, there's always the Turks. No, the Seljuks. The Empire had some really bad leaders around the time Alp Arslan marched west, leading to the disaster of Manzikert. If you made that worse (though it's hard to see *how*), or had Alp keep going...

EDIT: Oh yeah, IIRC the Sassanids had already fallen by the time the Byzantines got attacked in a major way, and realistically that was always going to be the case. The Byzantines were a lot stronger from several points of view, particularly with their navy, and the seperation of the core Western regions of the Empire from the Middle East by bodies of water.

Realistically, assuming an early POD (First or Second Sieges), the Muslims likely keep slowly expanding West (and perhaps more effort is put into Spain). Without Byzantium, a major reason for why Muslims (and some other forces) stopped where they did is removed. Constantinople was a hard nut to crack, and almost no matter how badly they got hurt, as long as they had Greece they bounced back, somehow.

Elsewhere, the Russians certainly convert to Islam instead of Orthodoxy. Also, the Great Schism is not going to occur, since one of the participants is now gone. The better connection between Europe and the rest of the world (via the conquered regions, if nothing else, though things will likely settle down sooner rather than later) will benefit the former quite a bit, with new crops and goods being brought in. The bigger expansion might destabalize the Umayyads earlier than OTL. The added area might have interesting effects on Muslim thinking and theology (particularly if they get their hands on some of the stuff from Constantinople which OTL helped lead to the Renissance). You might see an earlier, Muslim, Scientific Revolution (they got quite close to making several key breakthroughs).

Okay, so that was a laundry list. But still.

 

[Mirza Khan]

The added area might have interesting effects on Muslim thinking and theology (particularly if they get their hands on some of the stuff from Constantinople which OTL helped lead to the Renissance). You might see an earlier, Muslim, Scientific Revolution (they got quite close to making several key breakthroughs).

Okay, so that was a laundry list. But still.

They did get their hands on it, much of the documents (old Greco-Roman philosophy, astronomy, etc.) that led to the Renissance came from the Middle East (take an astronomy class and you'll notice something about the common names of most of the stars. They're all Arabic or Persian)

 

[Workable Goblin]

They did get their hands on it, much of the documents (old Greco-Roman philosophy, astronomy, etc.) that led to the Renissance came from the Middle East (take an astronomy class and you'll notice something about the common names of most of the stars. They're all Arabic or Persian)

I know that Beyond being a physics/math major/nerd, and well aware of Muslim contributions in that area, I took a Medieval Philosophy class last year which covered Muslim thinking--briefly, but we did cover it. The books had some more information. I was thinking maybe the Arabs found more than what they already had in Byzantium, thus increasing their development even more. And my main idea was that the larger size of dar-al-Islam will make it possible for several interesting strains of Muslim thought that OTL went into decline to survive in the wild West, particularly as I don't think that the centralized Caliphate will be able to fully exert their authority over European territories, or the latter will simply break away and ignore them.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

EDIT: Oh yeah, IIRC the Sassanids had already fallen by the time the Byzantines got attacked in a major way, and realistically that was always going to be the case. The Byzantines were a lot stronger from several points of view, particularly with their navy, and the seperation of the core Western regions of the Empire from the Middle East by bodies of water.

Realistically, assuming an early POD (First or Second Sieges), the Muslims likely keep slowly expanding West (and perhaps more effort is put into Spain). Without Byzantium, a major reason for why Muslims (and some other forces) stopped where they did is removed. Constantinople was a hard nut to crack, and almost no matter how badly they got hurt, as long as they had Greece they bounced back, somehow.

If by saying "Greece" you mean "Thrace and Anatolia", then I agree.

Remember, that during the First and Second Sieges of Constantinople by the Arabs, the power base of the empire was in Anatolia, the majority bulk of their population resided. Most of the Balkans, heck even most of modern day Greece were at least largely Slavic Pagan during these times. Cut Constantinople from Anatolia, and Roman Empire will become Thrace Empire, the one that is very vulnerable at that.

Of course, to firmly taking over Rhomanian Anatolian possessions would be an absolutely necessary pre-condition for the Arabs to successfully conquer them. It wasn't how they did it, hence their failure. Also, even then it would be even better that after Anatolia, they go to Thrace, then finally Constantinople.

 

[8Deer]

Could Africa (Tunisia, Tripolitania and maybe Cyrenaica) also be a good location for a Byzantine successor state? It is fairly easy to defend, not surrounded by enemies and fairly wealthy and developed...

 

[Workable Goblin]

If by saying "Greece" you mean "Thrace and Anatolia", then I agree.

Remember, that during the First and Second Sieges of Constantinople by the Arabs, the power base of the empire was in Anatolia, the majority bulk of their population resided. Most of the Balkans, heck even most of modern day Greece were at least largely Slavic Pagan during these times. Cut Constantinople from Anatolia, and Roman Empire will become Thrace Empire, the one that is very vulnerable at that.

Of course, to firmly taking over Rhomanian Anatolian possessions would be an absolutely necessary pre-condition for the Arabs to successfully conquer them. It wasn't how they did it, hence their failure. Also, even then it would be even better that after Anatolia, they go to Thrace, then finally Constantinople.

Okay, I was being anachronistic there. I was thinking of how, after the Seljuks kicked them out of Anatolia, they had already (partially) regained control of that area after a few decades, though that had as much to do with the Seljuks being internally unstable as anything else. Still relevant to the Seljuk option, though.

I had no idea that most of 'Greece' had been Slavic and Pagan, though. I mean, hadn't Greeks been living there (and by there I mean points south of about ancient Macedonia) for around 1700 years by this point? I mean, surely Athens, Thebes, Argos, and the rest had been Greek in the pre-Roman period and remained so?

 

[Ridwan Asher]

I had no idea that most of 'Greece' had been Slavic and Pagan, though. I mean, hadn't Greeks been living there (and by there I mean points south of about ancient Macedonia) for around 1700 years by this point? I mean, surely Athens, Thebes, Argos, and the rest had been Greek in the pre-Roman period and remained so?

At this time Rhoman control of Greece was restricted in coastal areas of the country. Much of the interior countryside were under Slavic tribes, even in Peloponnese. Athens managed to persist continuously staying Greek until even today, but I won't be sure about Thebes and especially Argos, which the later was even only rebuilt in 1100s, nearly 2000 years after its destruction in the ancient times.