Earliest date for a Soviet collapse (without a WW III)?

1952 if Stalin is in the middle of a Purge when he dies.Some people benefiting from the Purge will wish to continue it, while others will want to stop it and remove those put in power by the Purge.If the forces ate balanced 50/50 if could get violently ugly.
 
1953. Stalin lives on and his paranoia is sparked by the attempted assassination by Beria. This kicks off a whole new series of purges just as East Germany rebels. The rebellions spread through Eastern Europe as Stalin's insanity consumes the upper echelon of power. Chaos rages and Eisenhower decides to support the Eastern Europeans against Soviet reprisals seeing the bloodbath as proof Uncle Joe has come unhinged. As Stalin invades and slaughters thousands, the US unleashes it's nuclear stockpile as it lacks the conventional forces to meet the assault.
 
1953. Stalin lives on and his paranoia is sparked by the attempted assassination by Beria. This kicks off a whole new series of purges just as East Germany rebels. The rebellions spread through Eastern Europe as Stalin's insanity consumes the upper echelon of power. Chaos rages and Eisenhower decides to support the Eastern Europeans against Soviet reprisals seeing the bloodbath as proof Uncle Joe has come unhinged. As Stalin invades and slaughters thousands, the US unleashes it's nuclear stockpile as it lacks the conventional forces to meet the assault.

So basically a worse Twilight of the Red Tsar?
 
1953. Stalin lives on and his paranoia is sparked by the attempted assassination by Beria. This kicks off a whole new series of purges just as East Germany rebels. The rebellions spread through Eastern Europe as Stalin's insanity consumes the upper echelon of power. Chaos rages and Eisenhower decides to support the Eastern Europeans against Soviet reprisals seeing the bloodbath as proof Uncle Joe has come unhinged. As Stalin invades and slaughters thousands, the US unleashes it's nuclear stockpile as it lacks the conventional forces to meet the assault.
But this counts as WW3, imo.
 
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