Driving the Ottomans out of Europe

Zeller

This thread is a retake of Christian Victory at Varna, 1444 ( https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=247096&highlight=1444 ), but with a different approach.

The consensus was that the Ottoman Empire was most vulnerable during the interregnum of 1402-1413. The defeat at Nicopolis in 1396 pretty much discouraged any further endeavours. So if the outcome of this battle is a Christian victory, another attempt would be made during the interregnum to crush the Ottoman rule in the Balkans.

At this battle, the scales could have been evened if the Serbian Despot Stefan Lazarevic didn't participate in the battle on Ottoman side.

An ample bribe causes Lazarevic to stay out of the battle. Thus, the Ottomans cannot employ heavy cavalry and, after heavy losses on both sides - they retreat.

The Christian army decides not to pursue them at all. Not even after recovery. The casualties were too great. The just starve the garrison out and take the city.

An adjustment of battlefield tactics is needed after the complete annihilation of the french cavalry other debacle.



We still have 8 years until the interregnum...or does this event hasten it?
What happens till then? Ideas, constructive critics are highly appreciated.
 

Zeller

After the battle, the Banat of Nicopol is estabilished - Sigismund appointed Titusz Vay (in OTL he was given the title becaus eof his brave deeds in battle) as Ban.

The Ottomans don't attack, but strenghten the defence of the region - Albanian tribes have a bit more time before being subdued

Raids on both sides, an uneasy truce was negotiated.

Bayazid partially conquers Albania, forces the remaining northern Albanian lords into vassalage.

A new, halfhearted siege of Constantinople was undertaken but lifted in 1397 after Emperor Manuel II, Bayezid's vassal, agreed that the sultan should confirm all future Byzantine emperors.
Soon thereafter Bayezid was called back to Anatolia to deal with continuing problems with the Ottomans’ Turkish rivals and never returned to the Balkans.

Their armies met outside of Ankara, at the Battle of Ankara, in 1402. The Ottomans were routed and Bayezid was taken prisoner, later dying in captivity. The Ottomans were reduced to Timurid vassals.

After learning about the infights and seeing Ottoman vassals becoming more and more autonomous, Sigismund sees an opportunity to crush the already shaken Ottoman rule in Europe. He sends spies into Ottoman territory to acquire information about the issue.

In 1403, his agents give detailed reports about how the Empire is divided and how each part's situation is like. He quicky begins talks with Balkan states and starts to organize a coordinated effort. With Bosnia, Wallachia and Poland, he decides to fund Bulgarian, Albanian and Macedonian patriots and nationalists to organize a structured resistance and get ready for a full-scale rebellion against the Suleyman, who was Sultan of Edrine.
With the southern states (Byzantine Empire, Raguza, Despotate of Epirus, Principality of Achaea, Duchy of Athens), negotiations are began to fund Macedonian rebels and prepare plans to go to war with Isa, who was Bey in Balikesir.

In May 1404 uprisings ragged Rumelia. Local Ottoman garrisons were tied down dealing with them while coalition forces prepared to enter the land. In the North to big armies were rallied. One of them had the mission to liberate northern Bulgaria, the other marched against Edrine.

In the South, Greek and Albanian forces entered Ottoman territory while Venetian fleets blocked reinforcement routes from Rumelia. The Venetians - concerned about their profits - recquired a part of the land conqured from the Ottomans. Byzantium waited for significant coalition success before entering the war.

Many battles were fought. Northern Bulgaria was liberated during the summer. Edrine was sieged twice - both attempts to take the city failed. After advancing deep into Greece, the Southern members of the alliance met with Isa's Anatolian forces - the Venetians couldn't stop them from being transported through the Aegean.

At late autumn the offensive came to a halt. All former Ottoman vassals were now free except for Macedonia. Constantine II was reinstated as king to a now free Bulgaria. The Banat of Nicopol was given to the country to complete it.
 

Zeller

During the winter, the coalition council plans operations for the new year.

When the weather gets warmer in 1405, colation forces once again go to battle. With Serbia and the Knights of St John joining, their forces grow even stronger.
Isa - seeing the onslaught of the Christians - pulls out from the Balkans, so the southern assault presses on with little to no resistance. Byzantium quickly recovers some of its lost lands with virtually no exertion. Macedonia declares itself as an independent state.
In the North, Bulgarians still under Ottoman rule rebel and join the first regular troops from Northern Bulgaria. Suleyman leaves Edrine, which is sieged and taken by coalition forces. Suleyman replaces his capital to Sozopol.

As the Christians are closing in on the still Ottoman-controlled cities, Suleyman flees and seeks refuge at Timur's court.
The rest of the garrisons surrender.
 

Elfwine

Maybe, I'm not really familiar with how strong the forces involved are - although I think the Byzantines doing very much is unlikely. There's not even minimal military strength anymore, really.
 

Avitus

I'd say that some Greek areas might rebel against Ottoman rule in this scenario and decide to go under the de jure control of Byzantium. After that, if the most powerful man in this new territory (Macedonia in this case) is stronger than the emperor, he might well bribe the Constantinopolitan mob into making him emperor, or on the reverse he might eventually be taken out by a capable and ambitious emperor, who then exerts both de facto and de jure control.
 

Tyg

Avitus said:
I'd say that some Greek areas might rebel against Ottoman rule in this scenario and decide to go under the de jure control of Byzantium. After that, if the most powerful man in this new territory (Macedonia in this case) is stronger than the emperor, he might well bribe the Constantinopolitan mob into making him emperor, or on the reverse he might eventually be taken out by a capable and ambitious emperor, who then exerts both de facto and de jure control.
Click to expand...

I'd expect that even if (parts of) Greece are returned to the nominal authority of the Emperor in Constantinople, Venice would be the de facto authority there and in the Aegean generally.

Unless there's someone else with the enduring interest in supporting the Emperor, the Venetians are going to be the ones calling the shots. They have the money, they have the ships, and they have a constancy of interest in the ports and trade of the Black and Aegean seas. And in this case, the Ottomans will not be offering a naval challenge.
 

Elfwine

Zeller said:
The ones which are left with no garrisons after Isa has pulled his forces out from the Balkans.

Interestng thought, Avitus. But what would he use to bribe them? They probably don't have much wealth.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I follow why Isa is just pulling out of them. This feels like the Turks are being very passive - barely even reactive.

Meanwhile, if the Christians are fighting "many battles", that's going to drag down enthusiasm for those not immediately benefiting - and strength for all parties.

Also, and this may just be a word choice issue, but "patriots and nationalists" is anachronistic in this period. You can certainly support those who want to rebel with gold, but first you have to find them - I wish you'd gone into more detail on how that was inspired, because it doesn't seem to have been enough to present such a golden opportunity OTL.
 

Zeller

Well, my theory is that he feared that one or both of his other two brothers in Anatolia may take the opportunity to attack him, while his forces are divided.

Regarding the rebellions...agents have infiltrated the Empire and gathered information for more than a year. They then formed/helped the people form an organized resistance which in later broke out the rebellion.
 

Zeller

By the way, you are more than welcome to make the Turks more re/proactive. I want this to be as realistic as possible.
 

cimon

Tyg said:
I'd expect that even if (parts of) Greece are returned to the nominal authority of the Emperor in Constantinople, Venice would be the de facto authority there and in the Aegean generally.

Unless there's someone else with the enduring interest in supporting the Emperor, the Venetians are going to be the ones calling the shots. They have the money, they have the ships, and they have a constancy of interest in the ports and trade of the Black and Aegean seas. And in this case, the Ottomans will not be offering a naval challenge.
Click to expand...

Yes,the Venetians had all that but lacked manpower to hold land;mercenaries were expensive and it was proved in their 17th century expedition in Greece that nearly turned them bankrupt despite Morozini's successes.
 

Tongera

cimon said:
Yes,the Venetians had all that but lacked manpower to hold land;mercenaries were expensive and it was proved in their 17th century expedition in Greece that nearly turned them bankrupt despite Morozini's successes.
Click to expand...

I think you also forgot that the Venetians were a naval power, with limited land power.
 

cimon

Tongera said:
I think you also forgot that the Venetians were a naval power, with limited land power.
Click to expand...

No I didn't!It was exactly my point;their fleet could raid,occupy a fort or an important city for their commerce;but generally they could't hold ground.
take for example Crete and the defense of Heracleion(Handakas) and its siege by Grant Vizier Kioproulou(the third of the dynasty).The siege is famous,it was one of the longest in the word,went on for twenty years,because the Turks couldn't prevent the resupply of the city by sea and give some relief to the besieged,but they were never able to land enough men to break the siege.
 

Zeller

So the good Emperor may want to bolster Byzantium's land army to counter Venice's sea superiority.

About the Ottomans, I have an idea. Suleyman calls for Isa's cooperation. He now has two options. Send one of his most trusted generals to Europe or go there himself.
If he chooses the former, that general may be swayed by Suleyman with the promise of controlling the land in the Balkans Isa currently rules. Or he could be killed and his troops' command assumed by Suleyman. Then he has a bigger army and bigger land to conduct operations in.
If Isa goes there in person, his territory in Anatolia might be occupied by his brothers there or he might be killed by Suleyman's agents.
OR Isa will be the one to dispose of Suleyman to expand his realm.
OR will they actually fight side by side?
 

Zeller

I was also thinking about Venice playing both sides - as this was never too far from them.
But since the vast majority of the operations are on land and with Venice's power lying in sea might, I can't see a way for them to assist the Ottomans from behind the scenes.
Any other nations that may consider helping the Turks if they could present a promise attractive enough?
 
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