Divided Austria-Hungry.

Kaze

Banned
The premise here is based on a very obscure book by Jules Verne - Matthias Sandorf.

In Matthias Sandorf, in some Hungarian nationalists in 1867, try to break Hungry free - they fail to do so and end up in prison, the rest follows Verne's adaption of "Count of Monte-Cristo" with some science fiction / exploration elements.

Okay... now for something I am proposing...

Say Sandorf's rebellion is successful - what would happen with a divided empire? How would this change later world history - would there even be a World War One?
 

DocJamore

If Hungary splits from Austria before Germany unifies we are looking at a very different geopolitical situation in Europe from our own.
 

kernals12

Banned
This almost happened IOTL in 1848. Then the Austrians were bailed out by Russia's Nicholas I who didn't want Hungary's rebellion to spread to his nation. I don't see why his son wouldn't do the same thing 19 years later.
 

Mikestone8

kernals12 said:
That'd be a pretty big Germany. Probably over 110 million people.
Click to expand...


Not in 1867.

A Germany incorporating Austria (with the Czech and Slovene lands) would have been a bit over 50 million - as against somewhat under 40 million for France. France's lower birth rate would cause the preponderance to increase over time, but in the 1860s it wouldn't yet be overwhelming.
 
Skallagrim

Skallagrim

Banned
The idea that a divided A-H automatically (or even significantly) influences events to a Greater Germany emerging is not exactly rooted in fact. Austria would still only accept it if the Habsburgs got to be Emperor, and Prussia would not tolerate that, in turn.

The given date of the POD means the Croation-Hungarian Settlement of 1868 is still (just) around the corner, so no Kingdom of Croatia-Slavonia yet. We may assume that Hungary would claim Slavonia (and the Slavonian Military Frontier), and likely get it. They might also claim (parts of) Croatia and the Croatian Military Frontier, and may even get some of that, but Austria will ensure its own territorial contiguity with Dalmatia-- so the coastal areas of Croatia will certainly remain under Austrian control.

Austrian attempts to gain control over Bosnia are less likely, under these circumstances. Serbian border areas that made Serbian nationalists so pissed-off in OTL are now in Hungarian hands, so that's their problem. Some OTL causes for World War I have thuse been averted, or at least they've been rendered less likely/critical.
 

rommel12

Austria would suffer a lot of loss of prestige and the southern states of Germany do not think it would like to be very close to Austria after it has lost two wars in a row. The Confederation of North Germany already exists.
 
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