I just had this conversation so my response is more place keeper to see what develops, but I argued that a Dewey win might alter the dynamics thus: Moderate Republicans ave an opportunity to control Republican agenda, pulling it progressive. Conservative Democrats gain some sway and open the fractures in the big tent, possibly preventing the later "harder" left shift. In other words the GOP champions civil rights and Democrats backstop social conservative, but the GOP favors business and "small" government Democrats look more populist favoring government spending and the "little" guy shaded by "States" rights. It makes things less clear cut, might get more cross party voting trends that are issue centric, potentially heading off he parties growing so far apart and overly focused on their most vocal core, letting each act more big tent. And I might consider how Dewey reacts to Korea or China, he was an internationalist so he does not threaten collective security, the rhetoric alone might butterfly Korea and should derail Ike for either party.
Dewey Defeats Truman: A Progressive Proto-Wank
- Thread starter Hubert Humphrey Fan 1968
- Start date
I just had this conversation so my response is more place keeper to see what develops, but I argued that a Dewey win might alter the dynamics thus: Moderate Republicans ave an opportunity to control Republican agenda, pulling it progressive. Conservative Democrats gain some sway and open the fractures in the big tent, possibly preventing the later "harder" left shift. In other words the GOP champions civil rights and Democrats backstop social conservative, but the GOP favors business and "small" government Democrats look more populist favoring government spending and the "little" guy shaded by "States" rights. It makes things less clear cut, might get more cross party voting trends that are issue centric, potentially heading off he parties growing so far apart and overly focused on their most vocal core, letting each act more big tent. And I might consider how Dewey reacts to Korea or China, he was an internationalist so he does not threaten collective security, the rhetoric alone might butterfly Korea and should derail Ike for either party.
Kaze
Banned
What of Joseph McCarthy? Is he still going to be an jackass later?
What of French Indeo-China? That is going to be a headache - unless they do the smart thing and let the damned thing go to a UN monitored election where there is a good chance that Ho Chi Minh would be elected. And if he is elected, would they just stand by and let him hold power over Vietnam?
What of French Indeo-China? That is going to be a headache - unless they do the smart thing and let the damned thing go to a UN monitored election where there is a good chance that Ho Chi Minh would be elected. And if he is elected, would they just stand by and let him hold power over Vietnam?
I might come back to it some day, But I don't plan on updating it anytime soon.
Edit: Actually, I will almost certainly do another "Dewey Wins in 1948" TL, but it's very unlikely I will continue this TL.
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Some suggestions are doing a forum search on "What if Dewey defeats Truman" threads, I've found them a great resource for suggestions and facts.
This article in particular did some very heavy research into what Dewey's plans and mind were aimed towards for his (assumed) first term of the Presidency:
https://books.google.com/books?id=3...resident?, Kiplinger Magazine Article&f=false
There were fears of course of heavily "East Coast" cabinet, specifically New Yorker's but overall this was the initial planning,
"Elliot V. Bell, expected to be given a financial position as he was a mayor architect of the Dewey Economics planning. Suggested as Federal Reserve Board Chairman, head of the REconstructon Finance Corporation, of possible Secretary of the Treasury. John E. Buton Director of Budget while Dewey wa governor, seemed obvious for DoB in the Cabinet. Charles D. Breitel, basically White House Lawyer but might be considered for a top legal position. Paul E. Lockwood Dewey's personal secretary probably remain in similar position. James C. Hagerty probably press/public relations. Irving Ives will be a Dewey man in Congress, specifically the Senate. Herbert Brownell possible Chief of Staff. Roger Williams Strauss, top advisor on economics and/or policy and maybe alternate SoT or Budget. Alger B. Chapman tax lawer and New York Campaign manager for the Dewey Campaign. Harold Keller possible positionin Commerce or Trade but specialized in speech writing.
But the article does worry about public reaction to the front-loading with East Coast or "New York" Interests. Still means mostly likely SoT will be Bell rather than Bush or Romney. Eisenhower in as SoD is interesting but may be problematical as Dewey was on record as seeing the military budget and preparedness needed increasing which in his mind meant raising taxes, (balanced budget was a big thing with Dewey) and not putting military spending 'dead-last' which is how Truman did it. Neither was he willing to accept the A-Bomb was the end all-be all of weapons and considered neither it, (nor the US Air Force which was then the only means of delivery) to be the assumed 'primary' policy recipient.
Pretty sure it's mentioned that Dewey had a "deal" with Hoover where once elected he would appoint Hoover as AG with an eye on putting him into the next SCJ opening. Hoover more than anything else wanted a secure position so he could remain in Washington and keep his fingers in the various 'pies' without fear of being fired by an incoming administration. His hand-picked successor at the FBI would of course allow him to run things behind the scenes while the AG and then SCJ spot, (aiming of course for Chief Justice) would allow him maximum influence and ability to 'shape' American legal policy towards "subversives, Anarchists, and Communists" as he saw fit. I suspect Dewey was aware of this ambition and agreed to the deal with (hopefully) the intention of finding a way of sliding Hoover's "successor" out and someone less controllable in to allow the FBI to broaden it's actual investigative regime. As an ex-Mob-Busting lawyer he was much more conversent with the issues the Mob presented to the US than Hoover ever admitted.
Brownell fits with the assumption of the campaign as AG.
The biggest 'worries' posited in the article, (which reflected public as well as private opinion) was there was a high possibility of Dewey either seeing a depression or at least a severe recession due to economic stagnation or arguably worse a War of some kind assumed with Russia over the situation in Europe. The plan was an expansion of military spending, (Truman slashed spending again seeing his 'win' as a mandate what he was doing already was acceptable) from around 14 billion to possibly up to 20 billion. Foreign financial aid would also increase to non-communist and non-aligned naitions in an effort to outspend Russia on 'influence' building.
This will obviously not save China though it may shut up a few "experts" who assume that alone would have done it. (Two years after the end of WWII the KMT had already received over 4 billion dollars mostly in military aid) I don't see anything less than direct military intervention by US forces keeping the KMT in power. So by December of 1949 Chiang and the KMT still lose the mainland to the PRC and move to Taiwan.
However, (and this was one of Truman's bigger mistakes) since Truman was cutting the military budget even more he declared in January of 1950 that the US would not engage in an dispute involving Taiwan and that the US would not intervene in the event of an attack by the PRC. In fact this allowed MacArthur to continue to draw down assets in both Korea and Japan whereas it is likely that Dewey seeking to expand "containment" of Communism in Asia along with Europe would proclaim US protection for Taiwan and the KMT, (which in effect will force MacArthur to reverse and reinforce troop and equipment movement from both Japan and Korea as well as an expanded Naval presence) which would put North Korea, China and Russia on 'notice' that the US still has interest in the area. This would butterfly away a lot of the Chinese and Russian support for armed conquest of the South and likely result in Kim not getting the go-ahead in any form for invading the South.
Even though the USSR still explodes its first A-Bomb by August 1949 the obvious US interest in and promised defense of Taiwan reduces the interest in both the USSR and RPC for the venture. (In OTL neither Mao or Stalin were at all eager to support Kim's southward adventure. He managed to use the communications delays between Moscow and Beijing to allow him to convince each leader that the other was already behind the idea and had given their consent. That's less likely under these circumstances) Still it's possible that the Korean war still breaks out as per OTL in mid-1950. The main question is how much of Dewey's planned military increase has been put into place and what effects it has. The article talks of an increase from 14 bilion to "17, 18 or even 20 billion" for all branches, (Army, Navy and Air Force) where as under Truman the majority went to the Air Force for strategic aircraft. But he's only got from January 1949 to June 1950 to get the money into circulation and I doubt it will be as high as 20 billion.
Spending had gone from the end of WWII (1947) US military spending hit a low of $10 billion for which the majority went to the USAF, in early-1948 Truman got a Congressional 'suplement' of about $3 Billion due to the Communist take over of Czechoslovakia and continued percieved dangers the FY 1949 budget included about a 20% overall increase in funding but it was not until the Korean war actually broke out in June 1950 for Truman (and most of the US government, remember the Republican "platforms" was a "Return to Normalcy" in spending) to finally admit the US military was significantly under-funded. While a general 'fear' was present it wasn't till the actual outbreak of Korea and the obvious inability of the US to counter I that the "crisis"* became enough to generate significant military spending. Between 1947 and 1950 real annual military spending never exceeded $60 billion dollars but after 1952 it never fell below $143 billion.
(http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~dludden/USmilitarybudget02a.htm)
*Truman asked for a blockade of North Korea at the outbreak only to be told the US Navy had neither the ships nor personnel to put one in place
Dewey may in fact get his increase but it will be nowhere near what the military actually needed to begin fighting the Cold War it seems.
Randy
This article in particular did some very heavy research into what Dewey's plans and mind were aimed towards for his (assumed) first term of the Presidency:
https://books.google.com/books?id=3...resident?, Kiplinger Magazine Article&f=false
There were fears of course of heavily "East Coast" cabinet, specifically New Yorker's but overall this was the initial planning,
"Elliot V. Bell, expected to be given a financial position as he was a mayor architect of the Dewey Economics planning. Suggested as Federal Reserve Board Chairman, head of the REconstructon Finance Corporation, of possible Secretary of the Treasury. John E. Buton Director of Budget while Dewey wa governor, seemed obvious for DoB in the Cabinet. Charles D. Breitel, basically White House Lawyer but might be considered for a top legal position. Paul E. Lockwood Dewey's personal secretary probably remain in similar position. James C. Hagerty probably press/public relations. Irving Ives will be a Dewey man in Congress, specifically the Senate. Herbert Brownell possible Chief of Staff. Roger Williams Strauss, top advisor on economics and/or policy and maybe alternate SoT or Budget. Alger B. Chapman tax lawer and New York Campaign manager for the Dewey Campaign. Harold Keller possible positionin Commerce or Trade but specialized in speech writing.
But the article does worry about public reaction to the front-loading with East Coast or "New York" Interests. Still means mostly likely SoT will be Bell rather than Bush or Romney. Eisenhower in as SoD is interesting but may be problematical as Dewey was on record as seeing the military budget and preparedness needed increasing which in his mind meant raising taxes, (balanced budget was a big thing with Dewey) and not putting military spending 'dead-last' which is how Truman did it. Neither was he willing to accept the A-Bomb was the end all-be all of weapons and considered neither it, (nor the US Air Force which was then the only means of delivery) to be the assumed 'primary' policy recipient.
Pretty sure it's mentioned that Dewey had a "deal" with Hoover where once elected he would appoint Hoover as AG with an eye on putting him into the next SCJ opening. Hoover more than anything else wanted a secure position so he could remain in Washington and keep his fingers in the various 'pies' without fear of being fired by an incoming administration. His hand-picked successor at the FBI would of course allow him to run things behind the scenes while the AG and then SCJ spot, (aiming of course for Chief Justice) would allow him maximum influence and ability to 'shape' American legal policy towards "subversives, Anarchists, and Communists" as he saw fit. I suspect Dewey was aware of this ambition and agreed to the deal with (hopefully) the intention of finding a way of sliding Hoover's "successor" out and someone less controllable in to allow the FBI to broaden it's actual investigative regime. As an ex-Mob-Busting lawyer he was much more conversent with the issues the Mob presented to the US than Hoover ever admitted.
Brownell fits with the assumption of the campaign as AG.
The biggest 'worries' posited in the article, (which reflected public as well as private opinion) was there was a high possibility of Dewey either seeing a depression or at least a severe recession due to economic stagnation or arguably worse a War of some kind assumed with Russia over the situation in Europe. The plan was an expansion of military spending, (Truman slashed spending again seeing his 'win' as a mandate what he was doing already was acceptable) from around 14 billion to possibly up to 20 billion. Foreign financial aid would also increase to non-communist and non-aligned naitions in an effort to outspend Russia on 'influence' building.
This will obviously not save China though it may shut up a few "experts" who assume that alone would have done it. (Two years after the end of WWII the KMT had already received over 4 billion dollars mostly in military aid) I don't see anything less than direct military intervention by US forces keeping the KMT in power. So by December of 1949 Chiang and the KMT still lose the mainland to the PRC and move to Taiwan.
However, (and this was one of Truman's bigger mistakes) since Truman was cutting the military budget even more he declared in January of 1950 that the US would not engage in an dispute involving Taiwan and that the US would not intervene in the event of an attack by the PRC. In fact this allowed MacArthur to continue to draw down assets in both Korea and Japan whereas it is likely that Dewey seeking to expand "containment" of Communism in Asia along with Europe would proclaim US protection for Taiwan and the KMT, (which in effect will force MacArthur to reverse and reinforce troop and equipment movement from both Japan and Korea as well as an expanded Naval presence) which would put North Korea, China and Russia on 'notice' that the US still has interest in the area. This would butterfly away a lot of the Chinese and Russian support for armed conquest of the South and likely result in Kim not getting the go-ahead in any form for invading the South.
Even though the USSR still explodes its first A-Bomb by August 1949 the obvious US interest in and promised defense of Taiwan reduces the interest in both the USSR and RPC for the venture. (In OTL neither Mao or Stalin were at all eager to support Kim's southward adventure. He managed to use the communications delays between Moscow and Beijing to allow him to convince each leader that the other was already behind the idea and had given their consent. That's less likely under these circumstances) Still it's possible that the Korean war still breaks out as per OTL in mid-1950. The main question is how much of Dewey's planned military increase has been put into place and what effects it has. The article talks of an increase from 14 bilion to "17, 18 or even 20 billion" for all branches, (Army, Navy and Air Force) where as under Truman the majority went to the Air Force for strategic aircraft. But he's only got from January 1949 to June 1950 to get the money into circulation and I doubt it will be as high as 20 billion.
Spending had gone from the end of WWII (1947) US military spending hit a low of $10 billion for which the majority went to the USAF, in early-1948 Truman got a Congressional 'suplement' of about $3 Billion due to the Communist take over of Czechoslovakia and continued percieved dangers the FY 1949 budget included about a 20% overall increase in funding but it was not until the Korean war actually broke out in June 1950 for Truman (and most of the US government, remember the Republican "platforms" was a "Return to Normalcy" in spending) to finally admit the US military was significantly under-funded. While a general 'fear' was present it wasn't till the actual outbreak of Korea and the obvious inability of the US to counter I that the "crisis"* became enough to generate significant military spending. Between 1947 and 1950 real annual military spending never exceeded $60 billion dollars but after 1952 it never fell below $143 billion.
(http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~dludden/USmilitarybudget02a.htm)
*Truman asked for a blockade of North Korea at the outbreak only to be told the US Navy had neither the ships nor personnel to put one in place
Dewey may in fact get his increase but it will be nowhere near what the military actually needed to begin fighting the Cold War it seems.
Randy