Democratic Germany foreign policy in the 1930s and beyond

tonycat77

Banned
Even today France and Britain complain about Germany's dominant position in the economy of the EU.

A goverment with rational economic policies in the 1930s would continue to grow and export more and better products while France and Britain have to pay for a large military and their colonial empires, i can see a trade war happening or some sort of political interference to try and halt the economic threat.
A weimar goverment would also keep the Soviet-German military and technical cooperation.
Also interwar poland fought with it's neighbors, has a large etnic component that leads to division and a dictatorial goverment, Hungary has it's own problems with Romania and Slovakia and Yugoslavia is under heavy pressure from within.
There's a lot of oil on the floor and a lot of matches in the room even without a gigantic road flare in there.
 
Likely a German-Soviet alliance and invasion and partition of Poland. No WWII or war with the West.
Noooo.
Co-operation with the Soviets, yes. But invasion of Poland or partitioning? No way.
I mean, why would it not lead to war with the West when it did IOTL? Just because Germany is democratic? Forget it.
Someone trying this must be both very adventurous and crazy (like Hitler) and have a big scary military force (which I don't see democratic Germany building up in the 1930s). And they must have strong reasons for it. Hitler wanted Lebensraum im Osten. Without such an impulse, the mere thought of risking everything in order to divy up Poland with the Soviets is madness.
 
Noooo.
Co-operation with the Soviets, yes. But invasion of Poland or partitioning? No way.
I mean, why would it not lead to war with the West when it did IOTL? Just because Germany is democratic? Forget it.
Someone trying this must be both very adventurous and crazy (like Hitler) and have a big scary military force (which I don't see democratic Germany building up in the 1930s). And they must have strong reasons for it. Hitler wanted Lebensraum im Osten. Without such an impulse, the mere thought of risking everything in order to divy up Poland with the Soviets is madness.

Germany was always interested in revising the Treaty of Versailles, particularly regarding Poland. IOTL WWII broke out due to Hitler repeatedly breaking treaties after the West kept accommodating him, thinking they could appease him. Without this backdrop, and the likelihood of better Anglo-German relations, and way superior diplomacy than anything the Nazis could manage ITTL, it is doubtful Britain or France would declare war over Poland, as neither was that interested and only declared war IOTL as a last resort. It would be a limited war in Eastern Europe.
 
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Noooo.
Co-operation with the Soviets, yes. But invasion of Poland or partitioning? No way.
I mean, why would it not lead to war with the West when it did IOTL? Just because Germany is democratic? Forget it.
Someone trying this must be both very adventurous and crazy (like Hitler) and have a big scary military force (which I don't see democratic Germany building up in the 1930s). And they must have strong reasons for it. Hitler wanted Lebensraum im Osten. Without such an impulse, the mere thought of risking everything in order to divy up Poland with the Soviets is madness.

I don't think democratic Germany would do something about it. Even Hitler waited till to 1939 deal with it. I guess Danzig might join Germany as Saar did, but that's about it. If Soviet-Polish relations deteriorate, I guess Germany could seize the opportunity to make some border adjustments, but pre-1918 borders are unrealistic.

That's a very interesting scenario as this much more powerful Germany would face USSR directly, with lots of very small states between them. I guess they could have their own version of Cold War, dividing Eastern Europe in zones of influence.
 
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Noooo.
Co-operation with the Soviets, yes. But invasion of Poland or partitioning? No way.
I mean, why would it not lead to war with the West when it did IOTL? Just because Germany is democratic? Forget it.
Someone trying this must be both very adventurous and crazy (like Hitler) and have a big scary military force (which I don't see democratic Germany building up in the 1930s). And they must have strong reasons for it. Hitler wanted Lebensraum im Osten. Without such an impulse, the mere thought of risking everything in order to divy up Poland with the Soviets is madness.
What? Sure they would. There were OTL plans and offers to Russia during the 1921 invasion to divide up Poland.
 
I am wondering about the impact on German-Chinese relationship and the impact on the Chinese-Japanese War. It is my understanding that Germany had a very good relationship with the Chinese Nationalist Government. Germany was helping China industrialized and was training/equipping their army. It was under the Nazis that this changed.

Would the Germany government continued to work with China? Would China be in a better position to resist Japan?
 
What? Sure they would. There were OTL plans and offers to Russia during the 1921 invasion to divide up Poland.
What?? There were loads of Entente forces in Poland in 1921 and Fehrenbach publicly distanced His government from any involvement with Freikorps in the Silesian struggles. Whose plans exactly?
 
What?? There were loads of Entente forces in Poland in 1921 and Fehrenbach publicly distanced His government from any involvement with Freikorps in the Silesian struggles. Whose plans exactly?
Advisors, not actual troops. At least, not until it was too late to matter.

I did some research for an abortive 'Poland is conquered' TL. There were numerous official and unofficial contacts between Germany and the young USSR over Poland. Basically, the deal hashed out was Germany would get back the eastern territories if they agreed to supply the USSR with industrial goods. Now, granted, if such a thing would have really worked out is questionable but clearly both sides were interested. Germany and the USSR had plenty of OTL agreements.

Rapallo was only one year later in OTL.
 
Advisors, not actual troops. At least, not until it was too late to matter.

I did some research for an abortive 'Poland is conquered' TL. There were numerous official and unofficial contacts between Germany and the young USSR over Poland. Basically, the deal hashed out was Germany would get back the eastern territories if they agreed to supply the USSR with industrial goods. Now, granted, if such a thing would have really worked out is questionable but clearly both sides were interested. Germany and the USSR had plenty of OTL agreements.

Rapallo was only one year later in OTL.
If you can share some of those info, I'd be honestly interested. On the German side, I mean.
I know there were German-Soviet agreements, and I Saidw myself that I think this would continue. Without necessarily any "cold war" or dividing of spheres of influence @JohnBull. Most of Eastern Europe was French-aligned anyway
 
I am wondering about the impact on German-Chinese relationship and the impact on the Chinese-Japanese War. It is my understanding that Germany had a very good relationship with the Chinese Nationalist Government. Germany was helping China industrialized and was training/equipping their army. It was under the Nazis that this changed.

Would the Germany government continued to work with China? Would China be in a better position to resist Japan?
Finally someone else having the same thoughts as I. I'm wondering if Germany continuing supporting Chiang from 1938 and onwards how it will help the Chinese in the war. I guess Falkenhayen stays in China and continues building up new regements. Will Germany send volunteers to China as well? And the last question can China with German co operation be able in long term beat Japan?
 
Lets start with the immediate, namely Versailles which was the main concern for Weimar deplomacy:

If you look at some of Hitlers early successes, you can see that he mostly reaped what the Republic sowed:
For the first few years rearmament essentially followed the plans Groener had made as minister of defense in 28 and which since had been regularily updated. Even the time plan was not much accelerated at first, rearmament was always to begin in 33 regardless of the outcome of the arms limitation talks and until 38 an army of 300-570 000 men in 21-30 divisions was to be raised (target numbers changed during Weimar with the overall political situation) with a small air force of 150 planes. I´d say especially the lower numbers are for 38 a pretty reasonable assumption. Beyond that predictions get more difficult: Various important figures of the Reichswehr plans were sidelined by the nazis, like the designated airforce chief of staff Helmuth Wilberg (by nazi ideas a jew), the father of the german Panzer arm Oswald Lutz or Wilhelm Adam, who became head of the Wehrmachtsakademie, the new staff college. Likewise some institutions included in the original plan were formed in the early stages of otl rearmament, but largely abandoned later on by the nazis, like said staff college or the first steps taken towards a unified general staff. In democratic Germany that might be different.

Similiarily the reparations issue was rapidly becoming a solved issue and if anything Hitler taking power delayed the official closing of that chapter.

That left a few other possible revisions of Versailles: The Saar plebiscite will happen either way and in its wake I´d expect the Rheinland question to die a silent death. That means there are no real issues in the West remaining. The Sudetenland was pretty much a non-issue in Germany so IMO no action will be taken and the German-Czechoslovakian will continue to be decent but cold unless something else interfers, like a Czech-Slovak divorce or Czechoslovakia seeking closer alignment against Hungary or Poland.

Austria is a more difficult problem as neither France nor Italy wants an Anschluss. Democratic German diplomacy will likely continue to aim for a gradual integration by economic means and French ability to put pressure against that will probably weaken over the 30s. Italy is more difficult to deal with, but once it starts its own expansion options might open up, like Austria as price for undermining the Italian isolation or British/French acceptance, if Austria is seen as a possible avenue to put pressure on Italy without going to war with it. Of course Austrofacism provides its own problems for a Democratic Germany: On one hand the partner parties working towards unification fall away, on the other hand restoring democratic selfdetermination might be a decent pretext to go into Austria. That said Anschluss will be the most difficult to achieve and may perhaps even remain an active, but likely not peace-threatening concern for some decades before some kind of conclusion.

The big issue as always is Poland. Put simply even the absolute minimum acceptable to any German party - Danzig and transit rights for the corridor - won´t fly with the Polish governments. Hitler sort of froze the conflict for a few years with his treaty of non-aggression, but I don´t see that with a democratic Germany. Instead the 30s probably will be full of tensions and provocations. Sooner or later a conflict will errupt after Germany feels strong enough to risk it, but unless Germany really fucks it up, it will remain a minor war, blamed on both sides to some degree by the international community. Germany likely has no issue with France and Britain by that point and they will not be sufficiently roused to go to war over Poland without all the rest Hitler did. Germany also can´t want USSR participation (should international relations at that point even make that an option), as that risks expanding the war. Probably Germany will win a war with Poland, but I suspect that pressure from the other powers will mean treaty gains will be not much beyond Danzig, a few minor border corrections and the transit rights, more only if Poland is clearly assigned the blame for the war.

As this post is getting lengthy I will explain my thoughts about other diplomatic concerns in a later post.
 
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I am wondering about the impact on German-Chinese relationship and the impact on the Chinese-Japanese War. It is my understanding that Germany had a very good relationship with the Chinese Nationalist Government. Germany was helping China industrialized and was training/equipping their army. It was under the Nazis that this changed.

Would the Germany government continued to work with China? Would China be in a better position to resist Japan?
If the allies are not distracted by Germany there will be more help to China in general and Germany will be key helper in gaining foreign support for China which will come mainly from UK, France, USSR (already happening) and USA. German help in army will do a little to help to China but it will not be that much alone.
 
If you can share some of those info, I'd be honestly interested. On the German side, I mean.
I know there were German-Soviet agreements, and I Saidw myself that I think this would continue. Without necessarily any "cold war" or dividing of spheres of influence @JohnBull. Most of Eastern Europe was French-aligned anyway

The PDF is free to download.
 
If you can share some of those info, I'd be honestly interested. On the German side, I mean.
I know there were German-Soviet agreements, and I Saidw myself that I think this would continue. Without necessarily any "cold war" or dividing of spheres of influence @JohnBull. Most of Eastern Europe was French-aligned anyway

I was think about the future, 1950's onwards. Germany, specially engulfing Austria, would be twice more populated than France. Ditto for its GDP.

If Soviet Union keeps growing stronger, and they will (Spain might already have been on this ATL Pact of Warsaw) and decides to create a buffer between them in Germany, they could easily foment socialist revolutions from the Baltic to Greece and only Germany could provide any support to those countries. There is nothing France could do about it.

They would have to choose being part of ATL NATO (Germany) or ATL Pact of Warsaw (USSR).
 
Personally, I would divide the foreign policy of a Weimar Republic that has survived roughly into three areas, area one things that will definitely happen regardless of who is in power.
Area two, things that are very likely to happen, depending on the overall situation and which parties are in power, and area three, things that might happen if a good opportunity presents itself.

In my view, area one includes the reintroduction of compulsory military service and the resulting increase in the size of the German armed forces, the remilitarisation of the Rhineland, reunification with the Saarland and a conflict with Poland over the lost eastern territories.

With the reintroduction of compulsory military service and the enlargement of the Reichswehr, I am thinking of a strength of about 700,000 to 800,000 men for the army, the establishment of an air force and a moderate enlargement of the Reichsmarine.

In the remilitarisation of the Rhineland, unlike the National Socialists, I do not expect an invasion of troops but simply the designation of existing paramilitary units in the region as regular army units.

Saarland becomes German again , hardly a big change from history , perhaps in a different time frame than OTL.

Conflict with Poland was almost guaranteed , as none of the parties in the Reichstag , including the democrats , were willing to recognise the eastern border of the Reich.
The extent to which this became a Second Great War depended on other factors.

In Area Two, things like the Anschluss of Austria, the Sudeten question and Germany's behaviour in the Spanish Civil War were decreed.

On the subject of Austria, the Austrians saw themselves as Germans after the loss of their empire and this was also seen as such from the German side. The Republic of German Austria, which was formed from the majority German territories of the Austro-Hungarian Dual Monarchy, also wanted to become part of Germany, but was forbidden to do so by the Allies. Throughout the interwar period there were therefore repeated votes in which parts of Austria expressed their wish to join the German Reich. I therefore assume that when either the SPD or the Centre are in power they will take up this situation, especially if by that time the Reichwehr has already been considerably enlarged, both to score domestic political points with the nationalists and to increase their own voter potential.

The problem with the Sudetenland is that in the state of the Czechs and Slovenes there were more ethnic Germans than Slovenes and they were not happy with this situation and saw themselves deprived of their right to self-determination because they were not allowed to vote on their nationality. Therefore I expect that this question will come up again when Germany becomes stronger and that there will be support for a change of the status quo, whether it is a referendum in the areas with a subsequent annexation to Germany, or whether Germany simply acts as a protecting power of the German minority (approx. 24% of the population) and Czechoslovakia in return grants the German minority greater autonomy, that remains the big question.

In the case of the Spanish Civil War, I can honestly consider anything possible, from sending "volunteers" to support the nationalists against the communists, to honest neutrality. It depends on the political situation in Germany at that time.

Thirdly, there would be such things as a war against the Soviet Union and an attempt to regain the lost territories in the West, both of which are possible but very unlikely and would only be attempted in very advantageous situations and only when German nationalist parties are in power.
 
So part 2 of my ramblings:
Regarding the great powers Germany will be mostly focused on Europe, so the relationship with the USA should remain vaguely friendly with a dose of economic rivalry, but of minor importance. Japan will depend, but lets keep Asia for later. Overall Germany despite Versailles is leaning more Anglophile than not and as Germany will not be a naval threat any time soon there should be little conflict. With the USSR there was a good cooperation out of need throughout the twenties, but the different ideologies made it uncomfortable from the start and as that need became less pressing even before 33 cracks in the cooperation became more visible. A total break might or might not happen, but a cooling of relations is certainly to be expected in the medium term. With Italy the one big zone of conflict is Austria, beyond that it is no immediate problem. Relationship is unlikely to be friendly, but I would anticipate mostly attempts to peacefully contain Italy.
France is the most interesting. Of course there are the lingering animosities, most recently over Versailles. But there also were cautious steps towards a friendlier, closer relationship on both sides. With Versailles out of the way and Germany apparently gaining the upper hand in Europe, towards the end of the 30s more French politicians might warm to the idea of close cooperation as a possibility to restrain Germany peacefully. And on the German side it would be logically to embrace that to avoid a new encirclement. A looser version of the modern Franco-German axis for European integration might result. Of course that requires the right politicians to be in power in both countries at the right time. Alternatively France might try to retain a degree of encirclement. At least for the 30s a degree of that is likely even if relationship thaws (see below on the Balkans). Worst case France finds common cause with the USSR in Europe and we are almost back in 1914, but I would not see it as most likely result.
An issue with any great power might occasionally be the widespread presence of German military advisors everywhere from Afghanistan to South America, which might remain more present without the breakneck rearmament of otl. If that intersects with a great power´s interests, it could lead to tensions, but should mostly not be a dealbreaker.

Beyond that in Europe a resurgent Germany likely will in the late thirties start to compete with (especially) France and Italy for influence in the Balkans. The starting position for that is pretty reasonable, though I would not dare any firm predictions on where Germany succeeds. Most likely to fall into the German camp are imo Yugoslavia, as Germany will probably be seen as best shield against Italian aggression. My gut says that Hungary is the least likely to align with a democratic Germany, as after achieving its own revisionism Germany does not need a destabilising revisionist in its backyard. Of course at peace Germany has no pressing needs like access to oil in that region, so it can play realpolitik and give support however it offers the most benefits. It just needs to keep France forming an Anti-German bloc and has no interest in facist Italian control of much of the region.
Germany will most likely keep out of a Spanish civil war although the way that goes will already be influenced by the fact that Germany is unlikely to offer active support. OTL Germany was a core component in airlifting Franco´s troops from Morroco to Spain and provided material support even when military and foreign office were still opposed to active support. And of course later on the presence of German troops helped the nationalists. After a Spanish civil war German governments might actually be more comfortable in dealing with a nationalist government, especially if butterflies mean the facists are not the dominant faction of the nationalists, if the alternative is the radicalized Leftists that came to dominate the Republicans during the war. Not enough for active support though nor will the hope to moderate the Republicans suffice to make an intervention on that side.
Northern Europe is a safe region for German interests: Norway orientates itself more towards Britain, but that is only an issue if Germany and Britain are at odds. Things with Denmark have been patched up. Sweden and Finland are generally friendly, though with the latter the everpresent danger is to be drawn into a conflict with the USSR, thus Germany might keep a friendly distance unless active containment of communism becomes a major political concern in Germany. The same is generally true for the Baltics, a decent relationship, minimally impacted by the unimportant Memelland, but no interest at the beginning of the 30s to make front against the USSR. That can change of course and the Baltic states easily can fall into the German orbit.

Outside Europe German interests will be mainly commercial. Out of necessity Germany in the twenties German business were among the ones with the most global outlook, e.g. the Luft Hansa was the first airline to attempt a truly global presence, even if mostly through local subsidiaries. The presence of military advisors almost everywhere also helped in spreading German influence as they often had technical and economic advice in their backpockets and the industry contacts they provided were German firms or their fronts in other European countries. The depression put a dampener on global business aspirations, but only the nazi economic and monetary policies and of course the war really cut into that. Without that the globalisation of German business likely will accelerate as the economy recovers and German global diplomacy will be mainly in support of that.

The one really big problem Germany has globally is China. There was a lobby in Germany even in the early 30s that argued keeping China down was necessary or it would become too powerful fast and thus favoured aligning with Japan in Asia to achieve that. That some of those also wanted Japanese expertise to rebuild the German navy might have influenced them. But on the business side the Chinese market was seen as the more promising one and the army and arms industry, influenced by the military mission to China, likewise leaned towards Nationalist China. In general it seems most likely that a Democratic Germany would align somewhere between support for the nationalists and for the US open door policy, favouring the former as long as it does not hinder business. In case of Japanese aggression that support will IMO continue, though the extent might vary: The mission will certainly be allowed to remain. US diplomatic initiatives against Japan should be supported, maybe even some own proposals made. War material will be supplied, though with how much generosity? Volunteers may potentially be allowed, less so that Germany actively forms volunteer units. Active participation in the conflict is almost out of question, except perhaps in concert with other (European) great powers under unusual conditions.
Of course if Germany is not forced to choose it will try decent relationships with both countries as business and relationships with both countries were good until being friendly with one was an unfriendly act towards the other.

Last and least there are colonial ambitions as I forgot it in the revisionism post. There was a colonial lobby in Germany and the German government tactic in the 20s was to try getting into the league mandate administration and through that get control of some formerly German mandates, mainly Cameroon. Flanked was it with a government supported buyback scheme for private plantations to create preserve a pro-German lobby at least in Cameroon. That scheme fell victim to the depression. Inadvertantly a bit of "pro"-German nostalgia (not as bad as our new rulers) was helped along that way. But overall the topic was never really important on the government level and imo that will always be the case. Successfully getting the mandate over a former colony might be a nice success if it happens, but it will only as a side effect of some other diplomatic shenanigans.
 
In short, a lasting Weimar Germany is a German Wank.
Not necessarily, you can even see it that way that OTL was more of a German screw and therefore every other timeline looks like a wank in comparison.
In fact, without the Nazis and World War II, Germany would have had a good chance of remaining a great power and certainly an important player in Central and Eastern Europe.
How far this "strength" goes, however, is unclear.
 
In short, a lasting Weimar Germany is a German Wank.
Not entirely. The domestic situation and acceptance of the republic will even in the best case need some years or even decades to settle entirely and that provides its own challenges. WW2 and the aftermath purged the FRG of a lot of problems and instabilities that could have plagued Germany way longer.
And internationally (beyond the economic sphere) Germany will for a long time lack the ability to project power outside Europe. Germany will be less restrained in its means and methods, but even if France becomes friendly Germany has too many challenges in its neighborhood to turn global. Just building up for regional challenges like Poland (in the early stages), facist Italy or the USSR will take time. In many ways I see a good chance that a surviving Weimar Republic will lead to a harsher version of todays Franco-German axis: Germany will be way more dominant in non-communist continental Europe than the FRG otl, but outside Europe France will be the one to take the lead and without the strain of WW2 it is significantly better positioned to do so. Of course Germany might be more willing to provide muscle to its allies than otl, but still its own main interest outside Europe will be to do business, so it will remain for the most part a regional power. Maybe the regional power of continental Europe, but still a regional power. And if Britain without the WW2 myth integrates more neatly into a European continental system, the German role will be even less visible globally. Except economically where Germany is well positioned to reach at least a similiar, probably even a stronger position than otl by today.
 
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