Delayed or no Mexican-American War, what happens to the Mormons?

[Zioneer]

Just a random idea I had. What would happen if the Mexican-American War was delayed by about 4-12 years, or didn't happen at all? Specifically, what would happen to the Mormons, who were in the process of moving to OTL Utah (then under Mexican control) when the OTL Mexican-American War happened? Would it even be safe to assume that they would still be in a position to move if the US was focused more on internal affairs than on expansionism?

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Just a random idea I had. What would happen if the Mexican-American War was delayed by about 4-12 years, or didn't happen at all? Specifically, what would happen to the Mormons, who were in the process of moving to OTL Utah (then under Mexican control) when the OTL Mexican-American War happened? Would it even be safe to assume that they would still be in a position to move if the US was focused more on internal affairs than on expansionism?

Hmm. This is a very intriguing question, as the Mexican War was by no means overdetermined. If Clay had won in 1844, it would not have happened till at least 1849, and possibly not at all.

So what happens to the Mormons in Utah? "(then under Mexican control)"... except it wasn't. AFAIK, Mexico had no actual control of anything north of central Arizona. I doubt if any Mexican settlers, much less officials, were ever seen north of the Grand Canyon, except for the occasional traveller along the Old Spanish Trail, which ran over 100 miles south of the Salt Lake area.

 

[Zioneer]

Hmm. This is a very intriguing question, as the Mexican War was by no means overdetermined. If Clay had won in 1844, it would not have happened till at least 1849, and possibly not at all.

So what happens to the Mormons in Utah? "(then under Mexican control)"... except it wasn't. AFAIK, Mexico had no actual control of anything north of central Arizona. I doubt if any Mexican settlers, much less officials, were ever seen north of the Grand Canyon, except for the occasional traveller along the Old Spanish Trail, which ran over 100 miles south of the Salt Lake area.

Well, then theoretically under Mexican control, let's say. It was legally part of Mexico, and the Mexican government claimed authority over it, even if they weren't able to exercise that control. California had the same issue, with Mexico claiming authority over it, but not able to exercise said authority.

My thought is that perhaps the Mormons would have a bit less of an Americanized identity, and depending on how long they stay under Mexican control, could have a sort of regionalistic attitude, or even some kind of Mexican patriotism.

 

[galanx]

They would have a legal claim against American intrusion- enforcing it would be another matter.
I can't see even a psot-revolutionary Mexico endorsing polygamy, though.

 

[Minty_Fresh]

The death of Smith in 1844 put the community into a tough spot, and the Mormon Battalion and participation in the War against Mexico put the community in a less contentious light with the authorities. The move to Salt Lake was certainly helped by this.

Coexistence with Mexico would have been unlikely, but the bigger problem for the community was not the Mexican government, which was quite powerless north of the Rio Grande compared to the US and could exert no power that far north at all, but rather from American settlers who would see the territory as a target and the Mormons as basically Indians.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Mexico holding the Mexican Cession lands is near-ASB--it just depends how the lands fall into US hands. But for the short term, we can look at how the Mexicans treated Mormon colonies in northern Mexico. Quite a few Mormon colonies exist in northern Mexico--Mitt Romney can trace his ancestry to one of these. Some are also polygamist to this day, like parts of the LeBaron Order infamous for some murders ordered by their leader against rival Mormon fundamentalists.

My thought is that perhaps the Mormons would have a bit less of an Americanized identity, and depending on how long they stay under Mexican control, could have a sort of regionalistic attitude, or even some kind of Mexican patriotism.

Are those Mormon colonies in Mexico I described patriotic Mexicans? I'm not certain--this article (includes relatives of the aforementioned LeBarons who had been targetted by narcoterrorists) suggests that they can have a rather American approach to things as well as maintain American citizenship, even if one of them is a state senator in Chihuahua. So that suggests the Mormons will become a bit more than just LDS Mexicans in both the short term and long term.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Well, then theoretically under Mexican control, let's say. It was legally part of Mexico, and the Mexican government claimed authority over it, even if they weren't able to exercise that control. California had the same issue, with Mexico claiming authority over it, but not able to exercise said authority.

Hardly the same. California was settled by Mexicans and had a governor appointed by Mexico. One could say that far-northern California (the area north of 40N) was beyond Mexican official reach, but that's different.

My thought is that perhaps the Mormons would have a bit less of an Americanized identity, and depending on how long they stay under Mexican control, could have a sort of regionalistic attitude, or even some kind of Mexican patriotism.

They are not under Mexican control, and probably will never be under Mexican control, despite Mexico's nominal sovereignty over the area. Any Mexican officials who show up will be sent off. If Mexico sends troops, the Mormons will fight.

Unless Mexico explicitly guarantees the Mormons sufficient autonomy (i.e. allows them to practice polygamy). Then the Mormons may embrace Mexican sovereignty as a shield against the U.S. But that seems unlikely; the Church would be very down on such blaspheming heretics.

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

They are not under Mexican control, and probably will never be under Mexican control, despite Mexico's nominal sovereignty over the area. Any Mexican officials who show up will be sent off. If Mexico sends troops, the Mormons will fight.

And if the Mormons are attacked I think it likely the US government sends troops which results in war.

 

[jahenders]

In general, the Mormons were patriotic Americans but had had no luck with US justice (including the governor of MO issuing an order for genocide -- to exterminate them). They ready to (essentially) leave the US borders, but did send an emissary to DC to ask for federal assistance in their move from persecution. I think they'd be content in any unclaimed/uncontrolled area, whether claimed (but not controlled) by Mexico or claimed (and thinly controlled) by the US. The main impact of the delayed war might be that the US doesn't call for a Mormon Battalion to head to NM. On the one hand, the pay helped provide badly needed capitol to fund more Mormon pioneers and provided some useful trail experience, but it also took many men away from the Mormon wagon/handcart companies, probably slowing them a bit and adding to their troubles.

So, without the war, the Mormons still wind up in UT. At first it's uncontrolled Mexican territory, but then changes to thinly controlled US territory. The delay might delay when the US first tries to extend control in 1857.