DBWI: What if Sealion had... failed?

[Mr_ Bondoc]

But can you imagine a Republican congress shipping aid to the Soviets, even if a US-German war started? Soviet remnants declared war on Japan after Pearl in just such a ploy, even going so far as to send a division into Manchuria, but they didn't get one pair of boots. Any isolationist Dem-Rep majority would leave the two to kill each other, not insure that one or the other won entirely. The President may lean in one direction, but Congress is the one who has to buy the boots and tanks to send.

But there is also thje fact that Great Britain and France openly allied with the Soviet Union prior to Operation Barbarossa in 1941. The fact that both nations were imperial powers didn't stop this diplomatic development in OTL. Also consider that when the Japanese attacked the U.S. in December 07, 1941, as shown by the 1942 and 1944 elections, the progressive Democrats and Republicans were able to drive out the isolationist wings of theeir parties....

It was only after the 1945/1946 invasion of Japan during Operation Downfall, and the 1951 U.S. intervention in the Chinese Civil War, was ground placed for the 1952 "Fortress America" speech by Robert Taft (R-OH) during the Republican National Convention did the idea of isolationism become popular again....

There's always the German complaint that much of those events were done with clandestine US/Canadian support. After the monarchy fled with much of Britain's own top secret research (such as early jet engines) and scientists, they carved out substantial British communities in North America. Even the ELA has unofficial speakers who tour the nation, asking for donations. And since Germany can't exactly force the US to do anything about them except by making huge concessions of their own...

That's also what the German government said after the 1985 Kaiserplatz Massacre, when they fired on the thousands of pro-democracy student protesters. It didn't help matters when President Jack Kemp (R-NY) referred to the leaders Michael Kühnen and Meinolf Schönborn as the "Butchers of Berlin" in the speeches during the 1986 and 1988 elections.

The claims of a "covert war" seemed to also take place after the 1998accidental SEATO/ANZUS bombing of the German embassy in Jakarta during the Indonesian Civil War. Yet they still have been asking since 2001 for the U.S. to allow the Third Reich into the World Trade Organization (W.T.O.) despite a horrible human rights record.

As for the "ELA connection", one White House meeting in 2002 between V.P. Paul Wellstone (D-MN) and Jude Law and David Beckham seems to be a rare exception. Despite the claims of talk-show hosts Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh. Despite what anyone says, there have never been any OSS agents in Europe since the executive order was signed in 1977....

 

[Dean_the_Young]

But there is also thje fact that Great Britain and France openly allied with the Soviet Union prior to Operation Barbarossa in 1941. The fact that both nations were imperial powers didn't stop this diplomatic development in OTL. Also consider that when the Japanese attacked the U.S. in December 07, 1941, as shown by the 1942 and 1944 elections, the progressive Democrats and Republicans were able to drive out the isolationist wings of theeir parties....

Yes, but look what happened despite their overtures. Stalin abandoned them with his Nonaggression pact with Hitler right when western Europe was about to go under, and then the USSR was defeated quickly as well. The support didn't matter, and the Soviet atrocities in Poland and elsewhere were well documented and published by the German forces during the invasion.

Plus, neither France or Britain had to deal with a majority isolationist/anti-communist Congress.

It was only after the 1945/1946 invasion of Japan during Operation Downfall, and the 1951 U.S. intervention in the Chinese Civil War, was ground placed for the 1952 "Fortress America" speech by Robert Taft (R-OH) during the Republican National Convention did the idea of isolationism become popular again....

Fortress America idea had been around much longer than that; just look at some of the Lindberg speeches before the European War. Thankfully Lindberg saw how prepared Germany was and warned the US so that we had time to prepare ourselves.

But I'm not sure isolationism has ever regained "popularity" (or if it did, it quickly lost it before I was born). With the old world under the jackboot and the experience to know that ignoring problems won't make them go away, the US doesn't have the luxury of isolationism. We have a major role in this world that we must fulfill. No excuses.

That's also what the German government said after the 1985 Kaiserplatz Massacre, when they fired on the thousands of pro-democracy student protesters. It didn't help matters when President Jack Kemp (R-NY) referred to the leaders Michael Kühnen and Meinolf Schönborn as the "Butchers of Berlin" in the speeches during the 1986 and 1988 elections.

The war of the words has always been a roller coaster with ups and downs. Remember that one politician who, when talking about the Nazi suppression of civil rights in Germany, said on the radio "I am a jelly donut"?

The claims of a "covert war" seemed to also take place after the 1998accidental SEATO/ANZUS bombing of the German embassy in Jakarta during the Indonesian Civil War. Yet they still have been asking since 2001 for the U.S. to allow the Third Reich into the World Trade Organization (W.T.O.) despite a horrible human rights record.

As for the "ELA connection", one White House meeting in 2002 between V.P. Paul Wellstone (D-MN) and Jude Law and David Beckham seems to be a rare exception. Despite the claims of talk-show hosts Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh. Despite what anyone says, there have never been any OSS agents in Europe since the executive order was signed in 1977....

I'm not decided about this one way or another. It seems obvious to me that the government at least turns a blind eye to ELA activities in the US, so long as the ELA doesn't embarrass the US. Whether or not the federal government actually supplies the ELA with fishing boats, radios, bombs, and more is up in the air. The ELA certainly never seems to have problems getting a hold of various models of guns.

And also, you can hardly expect the government to admit whether or not they have special ops in the Reich. Executive order aside, there are numerous potential loopholes (such as if what if the men are "tourists" instead of "newspaper writers") that could be used to get around various executive orders.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Yes, but look what happened despite their overtures. Stalin abandoned them with his Nonaggression pact with Hitler right when western Europe was about to go under, and then the USSR was defeated quickly as well. The support didn't matter, and the Soviet atrocities in Poland and elsewhere were well documented and published by the German forces during the invasion.

Plus, neither France or Britain had to deal with a majority isolationist/anti-communist Congress.

Then again it was based on the initial hubris or idiocy of Stalin and F.M. Vyacheslav Molotov. Just remember that even as the Germans invaded in 1941, Stalin told memmbers of the Politburo that rumors of a German attack were false and "counter-revolutionary".

As for Great Britain, just remember that P.M. Winston Churchill had to deal with the likes of Neville Chamberlain within his own party. You had Oswald Mosley on the right and Ernest Bevin in the Labor Party on the left as late as 1941.

As for France, the situation was worse with the Popular Front of Léon Blum and Edouard Daladier, which lasted until 1940, dealing with the Croix de Feu under Philippe Pétain, Maxime Weygand, and Charles Maurras. According to many historians, the fact that the political situation was so unstable allowed German forces to take the country easily in 1940...

Fortress America idea had been around much longer than that; just look at some of the Lindberg speeches before the European War. Thankfully Lindberg saw how prepared Germany was and warned the US so that we had time to prepare ourselves.

But I'm not sure isolationism has ever regained "popularity" (or if it did, it quickly lost it before I was born). With the old world under the jackboot and the experience to know that ignoring problems won't make them go away, the US doesn't have the luxury of isolationism. We have a major role in this world that we must fulfill. No excuses.

The brutalities of German occupation forces in the Ukraine starting in 1947 until 1954 served to introduce even American fascists to the brutalities of the Third Reich. The fact that it was captured for the first time on television served to publicise the drama further. The 1957 Gdansk Massacre of 67 "ethnically Slavic" schoolchildren served to alienate even the most ardent supporters of the Reich's racial policies. As such, it is my opinion that it was Germany that helped to end the appeal of isolationism....

The war of the words has always been a roller coaster with ups and downs. Remember that one politician who, when talking about the Nazi suppression of civil rights in Germany, said on the radio "I am a jelly donut"?

Believe it or not it was American Nazi Party leader, George Lincoln Rockwell, who was in Cotswold for the formation of the The World Union of National Socialists (WUNS) in 1962. Apparently he was claiming that, "wherever free men can breathe free of the dangers of miscegenation, race-mixing, and pollution...there is only one phrase, 'Ich bin ein Berliner'..." Apparently he forgot by saying the German word "Berliner" means jelly doughnut. What is ironic, is teh fact that with the "Nuremberg Purity Protocols" of 1962, until their repeal in 1968, the "cultural purge" actually forced people like George Lincoln Rockwell into the "re-education camps"...

I'm not decided about this one way or another. It seems obvious to me that the government at least turns a blind eye to ELA activities in the US, so long as the ELA doesn't embarrass the US. Whether or not the federal government actually supplies the ELA with fishing boats, radios, bombs, and more is up in the air. The ELA certainly never seems to have problems getting a hold of various models of guns.

And also, you can hardly expect the government to admit whether or not they have special ops in the Reich. Executive order aside, there are numerous potential loopholes (such as if what if the men are "tourists" instead of "newspaper writers") that could be used to get around various executive orders.

Well, the American people should have the right to know if their money is being used to support a series of covert wars such as after the 1980 Bologna Massacre, the Piazza Fontana bombing (1969), or the Piazza della Loggia (1974) bombings which were designed initially to cause a political collapse of Italy. I could also mention the 1977 assassination of Duce Stefano Delle Chiaie in Rome. In those instances, the world was unnecessarily brought to the brink of a world war...

As for the ELA, the 1988 call for a People's Democracy, the crackdown on London in 1989, and the subsequent assassination of P.M. Brian Faulkner in 1991, seems to indicate a region more interested in a civil war than a democracy. The subsequent 2001 and 2004 bombings at 10 Downing Street would confirm this....

 

[Dean_the_Young]

Then again it was based on the initial hubris or idiocy of Stalin and F.M. Vyacheslav Molotov. Just remember that even as the Germans invaded in 1941, Stalin told memmbers of the Politburo that rumors of a German attack were false and "counter-revolutionary".

What was up with that, anyway? I guess the German analysis were right that Stalin was gearing up for his own invasion of (then western) Poland and beyond. No other way the Soviet forces would have been so close to the border.

As for Great Britain, just remember that P.M. Winston Churchill had to deal with the likes of Neville Chamberlain within his own party. You had Oswald Mosley on the right and Ernest Bevin in the Labor Party on the left as late as 1941.

As for France, the situation was worse with the Popular Front of Léon Blum and Edouard Daladier, which lasted until 1940, dealing with the Croix de Feu under Philippe Pétain, Maxime Weygand, and Charles Maurras. According to many historians, the fact that the political situation was so unstable allowed German forces to take the country easily in 1940...

I won't deny that Britain and France had trouble in their own political ranks, but my main point was that the majority opposition/isolationist/anti-communist nature of FDR's Congress would have made sending aid to Russia impossible.

Believe it or not it was American Nazi Party leader, George Lincoln Rockwell, who was in Cotswold for the formation of the The World Union of National Socialists (WUNS) in 1962. Apparently he was claiming that, "wherever free men can breathe free of the dangers of miscegenation, race-mixing, and pollution...there is only one phrase, 'Ich bin ein Berliner'..." Apparently he forgot by saying the German word "Berliner" means jelly doughnut. What is ironic, is teh fact that with the "Nuremberg Purity Protocols" of 1962, until their repeal in 1968, the "cultural purge" actually forced people like George Lincoln Rockwell into the "re-education camps"...

It made for a funny moment either way. After that, every comedian in the world had a new, reoccurring gag. Even now, the Daily Show with John Stewart brings out the donut on any piece dealing with the ANP.

Well, the American people should have the right to know if their money is being used to support a series of covert wars such as after the 1980 Bologna Massacre, the Piazza Fontana bombing (1969), or the Piazza della Loggia (1974) bombings which were designed initially to cause a political collapse of Italy. I could also mention the 1977 assassination of Duce Stefano Delle Chiaie in Rome. In those instances, the world was unnecessarily brought to the brink of a world war...

Right? I'm not sure. Covert wouldn't be covert if anyone could find out about it. I do agree, however, that only the fallout from some of the worse attacks was what could limit US support.

As for the ELA, the 1988 call for a People's Democracy, the crackdown on London in 1989, and the subsequent assassination of P.M. Brian Faulkner in 1991, seems to indicate a region more interested in a civil war than a democracy. The subsequent 2001 and 2004 bombings at 10 Downing Street would confirm this....

I'm not sure that's fair. Not only does Berlin still control most the strings in British "democracy" as it is now, but there are a number of people who have such ties to the current system that it's in their best interest to keep things as they are. If the system loosens up, it could be there head, literally. So of course there's going to be conflict at any time.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

What was up with that, anyway? I guess the German analysis were right that Stalin was gearing up for his own invasion of (then western) Poland and beyond. No other way the Soviet forces would have been so close to the border.

Just remember that this is the same nutcase who killed off 3/4 of his military leaders between 1936-1939, because he was afraid that they were all planning to assassinate him. It is certainly ironic that it was Beria and Khruschev who finally assassinated him in 1949, after the capitol had been "temporarily relocated" to Gorki, as the guerilla campaigns of Tolbhulin began to falter......

I won't deny that Britain and France had trouble in their own political ranks, but my main point was that the majority opposition/isolationist/anti-communist nature of FDR's Congress would have made sending aid to Russia impossible.

But in an ATL wherein Operation Seelowe collapsed, just remember that FDR would have cewrtainly had more leeway in terms of foreign policy. Just remember that in 1940, FDR was temporarily able to use executive orders to bring about "Lend Lease" to aid "unofficially the Churchill government. Also, consider that after Pearl Harbor in 1941, until the Foreign Aid Act of 1943, FDR was actually considering options to draw the Third Reich into war with the United States. Apparently the 1941 abandonment of its Japanese allies after Pearl Harbor prevented America from dealing with a "two-front war"....

It made for a funny moment either way. After that, every comedian in the world had a new, reoccurring gag. Even now, the Daily Show with John Stewart brings out the donut on any piece dealing with the ANP.

In the 1983 film Zelig by Woody Allen, you had one of the funniest bits wherein an elder Leoard Zelig pesters George Lincoln Rockwell in New York City, NY by offering him "New York-style doughnuts" (bagels) during a rally in 1962. Apparently Rockwell is so obssessed with bagels after that that it becomes a secret to smuggle "Bagels and lox" to the "American Fuhrer"...

Right? I'm not sure. Covert wouldn't be covert if anyone could find out about it. I do agree, however, that only the fallout from some of the worse attacks was what could limit US support.

You would certainly be surprised at what gets revealed when people make mistakes. Just read the history of American covert operations in Killing Hope: OSS Covert Actions Around the World Since 1950 by William Blum. Apparently, even today you have illegal actions being taken by covert agencies within our government....

I'm not sure that's fair. Not only does Berlin still control most the strings in British "democracy" as it is now, but there are a number of people who have such ties to the current system that it's in their best interest to keep things as they are. If the system loosens up, it could be there head, literally. So of course there's going to be conflict at any time.

Well the 2005 Anglo-German Agreement under P.M. David Cameron and Fuhrer Friedhelm Busse has seemed to exacerbate tensions with the ELA every other day. The 2004 ELA Brighton bombing that nearly killed P.M. Cameron seems to only have made the threats of terrorism worse....

 

[esl]

With RN spread around the globe chasing down convoy/empire committments occupied up 1/2 of their fleet and with rotation to always have some ships on station , at most they had 1/4 of their fleet available. In contrast the Germans could prep their ships and sortie the bulk of their undamaged warships, meeting the Brits on even terms. In those situations German fleet inflicted 2:1 kill ratio.

But WI the RN doesn't sit back and wait for invasion. WI they take a page out of Norway and use their naval superiorities to abandon Convoys temporarily [only 1/4 of the vessels could be convoyed anyway] and use that excess naval power to mount a string of overnight coordinated 'Narvik/Taranto' type strikes when LW power is useless. In those situations they did inflicted 2:1 kill ratio against the germans and could repeat that. If the operation were well coordinated [prewar plan?] they could have crippled the German fleet stalling any invasion, in the hopes that America may get involved.

Wishful thinking?

 

[stodge]

Other Timelines..

Well, I can't comment on the events posited by correspondents in other timelines. The ending of Britain's great power status was completed by the German invasion but it had really begun during the 1914-18 War.

I think that if Britain had held out through 1940-41, Hitler would inevitably have invaded the Soviet Union anyway - it was pretty well sketched out in Mein Kampf and I'm sure Lebensraum wasn't referring to Sutton Coldfield !!

Perhaps without the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Americans would have intervened anyway in Europe but as we know the Germans were eventually defeated by the heroic Russians in front of Moscow in 1941 and at Stalingrad. Even though Leningrad was lost briefly, it was inevitable that Soviet discipline and manpower would eventually overcome the fascist invader.

Of course, with Britain as a base, the Americans could have invaded western Europe in 1943 or 1944 although the German rockets would doubtless have cursed havoc on London and elsewhere.

We would then have had an Anglo-American army advancing on Germany from the West and the Red Army from the East. I can only conclude that they would have divided Germany somehow - maybe along the Elbe. This sounds a hugely dangerous scenario whereas, as we know, the Red Army rolled the fascists back across Europe, reaching Paris by May Day 1946.

Of course, there would have been no civil war in Britain between royalist and communist resistance groups and I suppose parliamentary democracy based on patronage and corruption would have endured instead of the People's Republic which was declared after the Red Army landed in support of the People's Front in 1948.

The thought of American and Soviet soldiers confronting each other in Germany hardly bears thinkiing about. Many historians have argued that war would have occurred within a few years.

We of course avoided all that. True, the immediate post-war years were very harsh but under Khruschev, there were some reforms which continued under Brezhnev but some went too far and we all remember the Amsterdam Spring. We choose to remember the glorious 1966 World Cup Final when Britain beat Germany 4-2. Comrade Hurst was the people's hero that day !!

Of course, once Gorbachev took over in Moscow, all that ended. The Red Army pulled back and the People's Republic fell during the November Revolution of 1989. Since then, capitalism has returned with a vengeance and Americans now visit Victory Square and the People's Council Building.

No, I'm in no doubt - the German invasion was for the best. Had Britain held out, Europe and much of the world would be a war-ravaged wasteland by now.