DBWI: President Bill Clinton?
- Thread starter Hadley
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Chapman
Donor
It's hard to see how you get a man like that as POTUS. He's charismatic for sure but so much of his personality would be, I think, too offensive to voters. Everyone loves Slick Willie as a musician and for that, they'll happily overlook some of his personal failings. In fact for a rockstar like Clinton people are hardly surprised by his philandering, his multiple divorces and affairs. But for President of the United States? Clinton would need to get ahold of his "carnal appetites" if he wanted to make it in politics.
Although I guess nothing is impossible. President George W. Bush might be a good example of someone people thought couldn't make it in politics, being addicted to drugs and alcohol as a younger man. But his marriage to Hillary really seemed to change him. Say what you will about her, she worked something of a miracle on that man. Between that and her own political accomplishments, it's no wonder she's Chief Justice of the Supreme Court now. But back to Clinton - if he had gone into politics, I see him having a rough time even without his personal issues. Ideologically he would've been put in the very untenable position of trying to prove to liberal Democrats that he was liberal enough, while also proving to conservative Democrats that he wasn't too liberal. Maybe in his home state of Arkansas he could pull this off, but nationally? I doubt it.
Although I guess nothing is impossible. President George W. Bush might be a good example of someone people thought couldn't make it in politics, being addicted to drugs and alcohol as a younger man. But his marriage to Hillary really seemed to change him. Say what you will about her, she worked something of a miracle on that man. Between that and her own political accomplishments, it's no wonder she's Chief Justice of the Supreme Court now. But back to Clinton - if he had gone into politics, I see him having a rough time even without his personal issues. Ideologically he would've been put in the very untenable position of trying to prove to liberal Democrats that he was liberal enough, while also proving to conservative Democrats that he wasn't too liberal. Maybe in his home state of Arkansas he could pull this off, but nationally? I doubt it.
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IOTL Clinton's "bad boy" reputation worked wonders for his record sales and made him something of a sex symbol for Baby Boomers, but that would have the exact opposite effect in the political realm. If you've ever seen him on talk shows, Clinton is a very charismatic guy and he engages with the host and the audience like few others I've seen. There's a reason why he has been one of the most sought after guests on late night TV for the past thirty years. But no level of charm can overcome the revelations of infidelity, draft dodging, drug use, etc that would erupt were Clinton to pursue a political career.
While we've had performers-turned-politicians in the US, note that they were all Republicans. The stereotype of the 'liberal artist' I think is hard to overcome. Look at what happened when Ronald Reagan ran against Nixon in 1966 in California - sure he won the nomination, barely, but Nixon steamrollered him - hell, the landslide is probably what made Nixon Presidentiable again in 1968...
I think there's a solid argument that Clinton could've made it in politics. Everything that's being used as an argument against him- he's too sexed up, has too much of a checkered past, would have had to thread the needle between conservatives and liberals- also applied to President Robb. Granted, he was a Marine Corps vet and the son-in-law of LBJ, but I don't see why Clinton couldn't have made similar life choices. Hell, he and Justice Clinton are the same age, and if I remember right, the two dated briefly while they were at Yale. Maybe she would've set him on the right track as she did to Dubya.
Chapman
Donor
It's like trying to make Elvis POTUS. He's got charm, but in the wrong sense for a political career. It's not to say he could never go into politics but these things would certainly erupt as you put it if he was to try and climb his way up like that.
I'll grant you that there's certainly no reason Clinton couldn't have made different choices, and maybe ended up successful in politics. But I think the big question is; why? Why would he want to? Sure IOTL he was interested in politics as a young man, but his musical passion always seemed to outweigh that interest. Besides the fact that being a musician allows him a certain deal of personal freedom, as has been noted, which he just wouldn't have as a politician. As to the comparison between Clinton and Robb, I just don't see it. Robb had (as far as we know) one error in judgement and has since been the victim of salacious rumors. Clinton on the other hand...well, as a rockstar he's almost proud of some of his escapades. Again I imagine that man having a hard time keeping it together with a career in politics.
(Minor note - having married George W. Bush instead of Bill Clinton, she would be Chief Justice Bush and not Chief Justice Clinton)
But I do admit, you've got me there - Hillary and Bill dated? I had never heard that before, and i'm sure it's something she'd be glad isn't common knowledge!
He might have taken the Democratic party to a centrist position.
Anyways, there's this TL where BIll Clinton, governor of Arkansas wins a three way race between George HW Bush and Ross Perot in 1992 :
Anyways, there's this TL where BIll Clinton, governor of Arkansas wins a three way race between George HW Bush and Ross Perot in 1992 :
Yeah, they dated before his first marriage to (the now-SEC Chair) Ellen Mulaney. Hell, her son's running for IL-8. You'd think that guy would've picked up his dad's knack for showbiz.
Deleted member 145219
That was a great timeline. Even though I thought the Conservative backlash to Clinton as a bit much. Didn't get why Gore lost in 2000 or why Clinton couldn't get a majority in either of his elections.
Ross Perot ran as third party, creating a three way race. As for Gore in 2000, Clinton's sexual misconduct causes Gore to distance himself from Clinton, allowing Bush Jr to win.
Chapman
Donor
You know I've heard rumors that John Clinton isn't actually Bill's son, but instead the son of Ellen's second husband Chip Mulaney. I hate to get into conspiracy theories but I do admit John doesn't look much like Bill at all, and certainly doesn't have his charisma or his musical talent. He is pretty funny though, in an awkward sort of way.
But back to the original subject. Let's say ATL Clinton does choose a political career, and makes it far enough to mount a serious bid for the presidency. He's always been a reliable Democrat politically so I don't see any reason why that should change. The first election in which he would be eligible would be 1984, the same year Chuck Robb cleared the GOP out of the Oval Office. Robb was already pretty young himself, at just 45 years old when he took office in January '85. Clinton would only be 38 so unless he got started quite young, I don't think he'd be anywhere near ready for the presidency at that point. That makes his next best chance 1992, in the primary against Vice President Bill Bradley.
Beyond being a fairly generic Democrat I don't know much about Clinton's politics. I do know he admires RFK a great deal, so possibly he would emulate Kennedy's career. Maybe we see Senator Bill Clinton from the state of Arkansas. I don't see any good openings for the Senate among the Democrats though, so unless he primaries Bumper or Pryor, he might have to consider a House seat or maybe Governor instead. In terms of ideology I think it's a safe bet that he would also emulate Kennedy's support for welfare reform, closing tax loopholes, and cooperating with private businesses to improve the economy. If he establishes a reputation as a moderate-to-conservative Democrat, generally in line with the agenda of President Robb through the 1980s and early 90s, maybe he could solidify himself as the main opponent to the more liberal Bradley. Whether or not this gives him enough leverage to win the nomination is totally a matter of speculation though. Maybe more realistically he gets the VP slot, but regardless, 1992 is the year of George W. Bush. Nothing is guaranteed in history but I wouldn't want to be the man running against Bush that year and I'm not sure even Clinton's charisma could overcome him. Not only was he a promising young Senator from Texas but the son of President George H.W. Bush, the miracle man who saved the GOP from Nixon. When Bush replaced Spiro Agnew for the 1972 election the decision raised eyebrows but it paid off phenomenally. After Nixon was ultimately forced to resign in 1974, Bush turned things around and clenched victory from the jaws of defeat come '76. First by fending off the conservative challenge from James Buckley in the primary, then pulling the upset of all upsets to defeat Ted Kennedy by an embarrassing margin. By 1980, there was talk among some of repealing the 22nd Amendment since Bush was limited by having served more than half of Nixon's term. But with typical style and dignity, he bowed out and gave the nod to his own loyal VP. Anyways I give you that nice little history lecture to make the point that by 1992, George W. was considered the heir to a family political dynasty that (somewhat literally) put the Kennedys to shame. Not only that but he was fairly astute politically, and of course Hillary was an asset both as a beloved wife and a cunning, loyal Republican strategist. The sheer momentum that Bush had in '92 seems almost impossible to overcome. Clinton would be facing a major uphill battle, especially if he was emerging from an ugly primary with VP Bradley. So most likely I think, unless he angles for the VP slot himself, he waits until 1996 or even 2000. Bush was still strong in '96, which is why so many prominent Democrats sat out that race. Maybe Clinton could fill that void. I think he would need a good, strong running mate to even have a chance...and with all this talk of political dynasties, it gives me a thought. Seeing as OTL Clinton is such good buddies with John F. Kennedy Jr., he might be the one person who could convince him to go into politics too. This would pair nicely with his admiration of RFK and boost his credentials with the party establishment (if the two have any kind of friendship/relationship ITTL, that is).
Anyone else have any thoughts?