DBWI: How Would Hoover Have Responded to the Great Depression?

[Amadeus]

Although he was the second longest serving President in American history, Calvin Coolidge is generally remembered as one of America's worst chief executives. In office from August 1923 to January 1933, Coolidge did nothing to confront the Great Depression after the 1929 Stock Market Crash. If anything, Coolidge's decision to sign the Smoot-Hawley Tariff only made the crisis worse. As unemployment soared and businesses closed their doors across the country, the homeless established "Coolidgevilles" named after a seemingly feckless President. Coolidge did not run again in 1932, and he died in January 1933. Vice-President Charles Curtis completed the remainder of his term before Franklin Roosevelt's inauguration in March.

However, many have speculated that if Coolidge had not run in 1928 - a decision he almost made - then Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover would've made a better President. Hoover was a progressive Republican who believed that the government needed to take bold action to respond to the crisis - many of his proposals for public works and new regulatory agencies were taken up by FDR, who often sought Hoover's council. When Coolidge refused to take Hoover's advice, he resigned from the cabinet and ran for President in 1932. He lost to Roosevelt, but ran a respectable campaign.

Suppose that Coolidge decided not to run again and Hoover runs and wins in 1928. Would his response to the Great Depression been any better?

 

[David T]

Hoover was much more of an internationalist than Coolidge. I can't see him signing Smoot-Hawley.

That Coolidge signed it was thoroughly predictable. Coolidge's whole record was pro-tariff; he not only supported Fordney-McCumber https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordney–McCumber_Tariff but implemented it in a very protectionist way: "Fordney-McCumber let the president raise or lower individual tariffs, and when Coolidge used this power he almost always raised them. Coolidge also inherited (and declined to change) a Tariff Commission populated with representatives of the industries it controlled—-an unholy arrangement that lasted until eventually Congress cried foul." https://books.google.com/books?id=ogc9EZf8Ry8C&pg=PA73

 

[Kalga]

The man who fed a starving Europe in the aftermath of the Great War would have done a reasonably good job if he won and served, although given the limits of presidential powers at the time I doubt he would have been seen as done enough. Remember that it wasn't immediately obvious that shit was going to be that bad. So he might still have been a 1 term president and lose to Roosevelt anyways as there's no way he could have gotten the country out of the depression in time for the elections of 1932. Remember that Roosevelt was able to expand the president's powers as he did because by that point the depression was bad to the point of being a national emergency akin to a war against a peer foreign power.

 

[David T]

Let's not forget that Coolidge's re-election in 1928 shattered the no-third-term tradition--no matter how Republicans tried to explain it away by calling it his "second elective term" or saying "1923-4 was too short to count as a term." As a result, FDR decided to run for a third term (successfully) in 1940--something I doubt he would have gotten away with (even granted the war situation) if not for the Coolidge precedent. (Note how when the Republicans got control of Congress after 1946, they deliberately worded the Twenty-Second Amendment as a retrospective slap at FDR while treating Coolidge's third term as legitimate: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once...")

 

[Amadeus]

Let's not forget that Coolidge's re-election in 1928 shattered the no-third-term tradition--no matter how Republicans tried to explain it away by calling it his "second elective term" or saying "1923-4 was too short to count as a term." As a result, FDR decided to run for a third term (successfully) in 1940--something I doubt he would have gotten away with (even granted the war situation) if not for the Coolidge precedent. (Note how when the Republicans got control of Congress after 1946, they deliberately worded the Twenty-Second Amendment as a retrospective slap at FDR while treating Coolidge's third term as legitimate: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once...")

Roosevelt did want to retire in 1941. If not for Coolidge he might have. That's why even many conservative Republicans hate Coolidge: he both discredited conservatism for a generation and he enabled FDR.

If not FDR, who might've won in 1940?

 

[AltoRegnant]

Let's not forget that Coolidge's re-election in 1928 shattered the no-third-term tradition--no matter how Republicans tried to explain it away by calling it his "second elective term" or saying "1923-4 was too short to count as a term." As a result, FDR decided to run for a third term (successfully) in 1940--something I doubt he would have gotten away with (even granted the war situation) if not for the Coolidge precedent. (Note how when the Republicans got control of Congress after 1946, they deliberately worded the Twenty-Second Amendment as a retrospective slap at FDR while treating Coolidge's third term as legitimate: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once...")

And the double standard saw it shut down by the SCOTUS, and since then the term limit has been on the four terms FDR was elected to, with both Chambers of congress being held to it. Granted the limits saw a strong pay raise, but I dare you to find a stronger anti-corruption settlement in the US.

No Coolidge would mean that during the earlier years of the depression, we wouldn't see the expulsion of asian workers, which in hindsight of Pearl Harbor, probably saved lives. when FDR invited back to the US, while most of them came back after the three years of exile, those first three months are called the "Red Summer" for a reason.

 

[lukedalton]

Honestly, i don't believe that Hoover will have done much differently, better remember that Coolidge actions were based on the economic mainstream theory of the time that while we can see them at utterly voodoo economy, at the time they were considered serious; regarding not signing the S-H tariff, hard to say, while he can be personally against the law, she had an almost complete support in both congress and senatea so Hoover can simply go along while privately disapprove

 

[James Ricker]

Hoover probably would have given food aid to the Soviet Union after their disastrous attempt at collective farming. Preventing Stalin's crackdown and subsequent purges that weakness the Soviet Union.
Stalin would probably been deposed by 1930 not in 1941 during his inept response to the Nazi invasion.

 

[Amadeus]

Hoover probably would have given food aid to the Soviet Union after their disastrous attempt at collective farming. Preventing Stalin's crackdown and subsequent purges that weakness the Soviet Union.
Stalin would probably been deposed by 1930 not in 1941 during his inept response to the Nazi invasion.

Thank God Stalin was deposed - that may have saved the Allies from defeat.

 

[wcv215]

The reality is that it didn't really matter who was president when the economy collapsed, they were getting blamed. If it had been Hoover he would have gotten all the blame that Coolidge did. It would probably have been less deserved than blaming it on Coolidge, but life isn't fair.

And the double standard saw it shut down by the SCOTUS, and since then the term limit has been on the four terms FDR was elected to, with both Chambers of congress being held to it.

OOC: That is not how Constitutional Amendments work.

 

[Amadeus]

And the double standard saw it shut down by the SCOTUS, and since then the term limit has been on the four terms FDR was elected to, with both Chambers of congress being held to it. Granted the limits saw a strong pay raise, but I dare you to find a stronger anti-corruption settlement in the US.

No Coolidge would mean that during the earlier years of the depression, we wouldn't see the expulsion of asian workers, which in hindsight of Pearl Harbor, probably saved lives. when FDR invited back to the US, while most of them came back after the three years of exile, those first three months are called the "Red Summer" for a reason.

The reality is that it didn't really matter who was president when the economy collapsed, they were getting blamed. If it had been Hoover he would have gotten all the blame that Coolidge did. It would probably have been less deserved than blaming it on Coolidge, but life isn't fair.


OOC: That is not how Constitutional Amendments work.

OOC: @wcv215 is right. The constitution is the highest law of the land - the Supreme Court can't strike it down, including amendments. Judicial review allows the SC to interpret the Constitution, but not strike it down. It can strike down/revise legislation, but once an amendment is part of the Constitution it's there for good unless another amendment repeals it. The SC has no power to change that.

 

[James Ricker]

Thank God Stalin was deposed - that may have saved the Allies from defeat.

The Soviet Union suffered heavily under Stalin. The famine he created and the purges that followed that allowed him to retain power well responsible for the deaths of an estimated 36 million people.
His replacement of the entire Red Army officer Corps with his own lackeys is considered one of the key reasons why the Germans were able to take Moscow in the fall of 1941.

 

[Mort the Reaper]

The Soviet Union suffered heavily under Stalin. The famine he created and the purges that followed that allowed him to retain power well responsible for the deaths of an estimated 36 million people.
His replacement of the entire Red Army officer Corps with his own lackeys is considered one of the key reasons why the Germans were able to take Moscow in the fall of 1941.

But like Napoleon, they learned the hard way that taking Moscow isn't an automatic win condition.

 

[AltoRegnant]

But like Napoleon, they learned the hard way that taking Moscow isn't an automatic win condition.

Especially since they over invested in the eastern front to a point where Britain and America were able to launch several successful invasions back into the coentinent while the nazi war machine froze on the return trip.

Hell if Germany hadn't been so focused on moscow and had gone south instead, they could've won

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The reality is that it didn't really matter who was president when the economy collapsed, they were getting blamed. If it had been Hoover he would have gotten all the blame that Coolidge did. It would probably have been less deserved than blaming it on Coolidge, but life isn't fair. ...

I suspect, strongly, Hoover would have at least tried something to halt the bank failures. Coolidge was Lassiz Faire to the point of disconnecting the Presidency to any semblance of looking out for the collective interest of the commonwealth. As during the Mississippi floods he abrogated any responsibility for the executive office for disbursing the resources or exercising the power Congress attempted to arraign to save the banking system. This failure in action was one of the principle reasons Hoover broke with the Coolidge administration. Exactly how successful a Hoover presidency would have been is a open question, but we could expect Hoover to work with Congressional supporters of banking relief legislation & save a higher portion of the failing banks. Coolidges view "Its is not the responsibility of the government." clearly allowed the ongoing banking system collapse to run on longer & deeper than otherwise.