Despite his widespread popularity, President Calvin Coolidge considered not running for a second full term in 1928. His son's death and the stress of the presidency had taken a toll on him, and secretly he wanted out. But driven by his resentment of Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover, and under the advice of his family and the Republican leadership, Coolidge ran for a second term and won in a landslide. What if Coolidge had gone with his gut and declined to run in 1928?
DBWI: Calvin Coolidge Steps Down in 1928
- Thread starter Amadeus
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Well Hoover probably gets the nod instead and wins which means he gets the blame for the Depression. And this would obviously preclude his 1936 victory (even if Smith still blows the Dem response to the Depression he won’t make a comeback). OTL Hoover went down as a great president to the point he was tapped by two subsequent admins for cabinet posts (Warren made him Secretary of State and he died while serving as Treasury Secretary under President Stassen). If he takes the fall for the Depression obviously that will have effects far down the line.
Well, Coolidge was right as he died due a heart attack in 1931. This led to disastrous Presidency of bank scandal-plagued Charles Dawes, who was impeached and barely acquitted by Senate. Tensions raised after Bonus Army Massacre and they were fundamental to push progressive democrats to bolt after Al Smith's nomination, running under Progressive Party banner and with Burton Wheeler as candidate. Huey Long's candidacy in 1936 was able to win South and Midwest and split the vote allowing to a discredited Republican Party to make a comeback with Herbert Hoover (that was the Long's plan in order to replace Democratic Party as Republican's adversary). Progressives were then able to renew themself under Henry Wallace's leadership after Long assassination, winning White House in 1968 for the first time against Republican Vice-President William Fife Knowland from California and Dixiecrat candidate George Corley Wallace in a historical victory for Progressive candidate Eugene McCarthy who put an end to thirty-two years of Republican rule. No Coolidge, no Dawes, no bolting and maybe a conservative and progressive democratic coalition could win in 1948 against Warren (maybe running under an unifying figure as a popular war hero, as Eisenhower, McArthur or Patton).
It was natural that Coolidge would sign the Smoot-Hawley bill. His whole record was pro-tariff; he not only supported Fordney-McCumber but implemented it in a very protectionist way: "Fordney-McCumber let the president raise or lower individual tariffs, and when Coolidge used this power he almost always raised them. Coolidge also inherited (and declined to change) a Tariff Commission populated with representatives of the industries it controlled—-an unholy arrangement that lasted until eventually Congress cried foul." https://books.google.com/books?id=ogc9EZf8Ry8C&pg=PA73
A more "internationalist" president like Herbert Hoover might have vetoed Smoot-Hawley.
Incidentally, the 22nd Amendment took the form it did--"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once"--because the Republicans who controlled the 80th Congress wanted to posthumously condemn FDR for winning four terms without condemning Coolidge for winning three--so they basically decided that Coolidge's unelected first term was too short to count.
(I'm not sure, incidentally, that FDR would ever have become president if Hoover had been the GOP presidential candidate in 1928. Hoover's humanitarian work to aid Jews in postwar Poland made him popular among Jewish leaders https://www.c-span.org/video/?308192-4/herbert-hoover-jewish-vote Hoover might therefore have carried New York by more than Coolidge did in 1928, which could have been fatal to FDR's down-ballot gubernatorial candidacy, given the narrow margin by which FDR won the governorship in OTL.)
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OOC: As I understand it, the Presidents in this universe are as follows:
30. Calvin Coolidge (1923-1931)
31. Charles G. Dawes (1931-1933)
32. Al Smith (1933-1937)
33. Herbert Hoover (1937-1945)
34. Franklin D. Roosevelt (1945-?)
Afterwards, Earl Warren and Eugene McCarthy become President at some point. Although since the 80th Congress convened in 1947, and @David T notes that the 22nd Amendment was passed after FDR's death, apparently Roosevelt lives longer than OTL but not by much.
30. Calvin Coolidge (1923-1931)
31. Charles G. Dawes (1931-1933)
32. Al Smith (1933-1937)
33. Herbert Hoover (1937-1945)
34. Franklin D. Roosevelt (1945-?)
Afterwards, Earl Warren and Eugene McCarthy become President at some point. Although since the 80th Congress convened in 1947, and @David T notes that the 22nd Amendment was passed after FDR's death, apparently Roosevelt lives longer than OTL but not by much.
Continuing OOC: Smith is going to lose to Coolidge in 1928 about as badly as he lost to Hoover, so I don't see him getting the Democratic nomination in 1932. In my view, FDR will be nominated in 1932 and will defeat Dawes, Borah, or whoever the GOP nominates. (Even if he lives until 1932, Coolidge will not run again, saying he doesn't think a president should have more than "two elective terms.") In this ATL, FDR's third term bid in 1940 will have one additional justification--not just the danger of Hitler and the world situation, but the fact that the third term tradition has already been broken (so FDR's defenders will say) by Coolidge's re-election in 1928.
OOC: IMO this is a more likely result of the POD:
30. Calvin Coolidge (1923-1933)
31. Charles Curtis, or at least any VP other than Charles Dawes (1933)
32. Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1945)
Coolidge defeats Smith by a landslide, but his popularity tanks when the market crashes and he does nothing to alleviate the downturn. In fact he would be worse than Hoover, who was actually an economic interventionist - albiet a conservative one. Coolidge most likely doesn't live to see inauguration day 1933, and his VP (who is most certainly not Charles Dawes, a man Coolidge hated) briefly serves as President before being succeeded by Roosevelt.