Czechoslovakia stays a democracy?

[Vinization]

Suppose that the Communist Party and its stooges don't do as well in the 1946 election. This means that, even if Klement Gottwald still becomes prime minister, the Ministry of the Interior is given to someone who isn't an ally of his, denying him the ability to pack the police with communist officers and thus preventing him from launching his eventual coup.

How could Czechoslovakia develop in the coming decades, under a democratic government instead of being yet another Soviet satellite, with everything that entailed? From what little I know about the subject Gottwald was becoming increasingly unpopular before he established his dictatorship, so I guess he and the Communist Party would be defeated in the next election, whenever it happens.

Lastly, IIRC the Czechoslovak coup was one of the events that turned the Cold War into, well, the Cold War. Could tensions between the West and East blocs be lesser ITTL in general, even if stuff like the Korean War still happens?

 

[Lalli]

I don't think that Soviets just are happy when country locating such place is not on their camp. Either Czechoslovakia is divided to pro-West Czechia and communist Slovakia or then ther e is civil war or communist coup d'etat.

 

[Vinization]

I don't think that Soviets just are happy when country locating such place is not on their camp. Either Czechoslovakia is divided to pro-West Czechia and communist Slovakia or then ther e is civil war or communist coup d'etat.

AFAIK Stalin actually withdrew troops before the 1946 election, so who knows what could happen. A neutral Czechoslovakia would be a gargantuan hole in the Iron Curtain, especially since it shares a border with West Germany.

Calling in @Petike and @Resurgam.

 

[Cudymcar]

Lastly, IIRC the Czechoslovak coup was one of the events that turned the Cold War into, well, the Cold War

Czechoslovakia was couped because non-Communist part of itrs government wanted to join the Marshall plan. Make Marshall plan acceptable to the Soviets, and you can preserve democracy in Romania and Hungary as well.

 

[Cudymcar]

Either Czechoslovakia is divided to pro-West Czechia and communist Slovakia or then ther e is civil war or communist coup d'etat

Actually Czechs were much more pro-Russian than Slovaks before 1947. They hated Patton who was not too subtle in despising Slavs.

 

[Petike]

AFAIK Stalin actually withdrew troops before the 1946 election, so who knows what could happen. A neutral Czechoslovakia would be a gargantuan hole in the Iron Curtain, especially since it shares a border with West Germany.

Calling in @Petike and @Resurgam.

The 1946 withdrawal was merely a temporary good will psy-op. Then came the 1948 coup, carried out by the pro-Moscow agents throughout the country, offered cushy positions in the new regime. It probably won't shock you that many of these pro-commie agents were previously quislings during the war years.

If you want democracy to survive in Czechoslovakia and not be interrupted for half a century, start before WWII, forge an alliance between Czechoslovakia and other neighbouring countries and western countries, prevent the worst of German expansionism, defeat Germany early, dismantle its regime and democratize it similar to OTL. Failing that (which is, sadly, likely, given OTL short-sighted appeasement in the west), have the final year or so of the war develop more favourably for Czechoslovakia. Have them rely less on USSR support than in OTL, give them more western support than in OTL, do everything possible for Czechoslovakia to be liberated wholly or mostly by western allies.

And whatever you do, especially by the end of the war in 1945, don't put Edvard Benes in charge. He was a disaster for Czechoslovakia's post-war geopolitical orientation, walking straight into the trap of blindly trusting the soviets, purely out of spite for France, the UK and the US for supposedly not aiding sooner. A stupid decision that cemented the sway Moscow increasingly held over post-war Czechoslovakia. With more competent people in charge of the western resistance and government-in-exile, it might have been possible to convince the rest of the west to put Czechoslovakia firmly in the western "sphere of influence" and avoid the soviets eventually annexing it as a de facto colony within the East Block. Still independent, but no longer sovereign after the coup 1948, as all subsequent governments feared reprisals from Moscow, until 1989. We know well how the attempt at democratization in the 1960s was crushed by Moscow, twelve years after they did the same even more viciously in Hungary.

 

[RedSword12]

Quite a lot of communists survive because Stalin isn't able to launch a purge of imaginary Trotskyist conspirators in the country.

 

[Vinization]

The 1946 withdrawal was merely a temporary good will psy-op. Then came the 1948 coup, carried out by the pro-Moscow agents throughout the country, offered cushy positions in the new regime. It probably won't shock you that many of these pro-commie agents were previously quislings during the war years.

If you want democracy to survive in Czechoslovakia and not be interrupted for half a century, start before WWII, forge an alliance between Czechoslovakia and other neighbouring countries and western countries, prevent the worst of German expansionism, defeat Germany early, dismantle its regime and democratize it similar to OTL. Failing that (which is, sadly, likely, given OTL short-sighted appeasement in the west), have the final year or so of the war develop more favourably for Czechoslovakia. Have them rely less on USSR support than in OTL, give them more western support than in OTL, do everything possible for Czechoslovakia to be liberated wholly or mostly by western allies.

And whatever you do, especially by the end of the war in 1945, don't put Edvard Benes in charge. He was a disaster for Czechoslovakia's post-war geopolitical orientation, walking straight into the trap of blindly trusting the soviets, purely out of spite for France, the UK and the US for supposedly not aiding sooner. A stupid decision that cemented the sway Moscow increasingly held over post-war Czechoslovakia. With more competent people in charge of the western resistance and government-in-exile, it might have been possible to convince the rest of the west to put Czechoslovakia firmly in the western "sphere of influence" and avoid the soviets eventually annexing it as a de facto colony within the East Block. Still independent, but no longer sovereign after the coup 1948, as all subsequent governments feared reprisals from Moscow, until 1989. We know well how the attempt at democratization in the 1960s was crushed by Moscow, twelve years after they did the same even more viciously in Hungary.

So you think the communists could still take over, even if don't get their hands on the police? And no, I'm not surprised at all.

 

[Petike]

So you think the communists could still take over, even if don't get their hands on the police? And no, I'm not surprised at all.

You need to act sooner rather than later. Already in 1944 and 1945, the soviets were lobbying the west to basically surrender much of central Europe to them.
Trading one imperialism (German genocidal imperialism) for another imperialism (Russian slightly-less-genocidal imperialism). Make the west less lenient towards giving soviets carte blanche in "liberated" (read: occupied) parts of Europe. Sway western and post-war central European politicians to keep as many central European countries democratic after the war as possible.

 

[marktaha]

America could and.should have done more to stop it.

 

[oberdada]

US troops liberating Czechia and staying there after '45 is the most likely POD.

 

[Vinization]

I wonder, would a democratic Czechoslovakia still send weapons to Israel? If not, how could this affect the outcome of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war?