Cuba embargo lifted after the Cold War?

[the_lyniezian]

Just a thought I had this morning: would it be possible after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US might lift the embargo with Cuba, seeing as any real threat has probably gone (not so likely to be a potential missile base)? Would it actually require the Castro regime to somehow be deposed first? If so, would the Cuban economy be any better off than it is?

Being slightly ignorant of the ins and outs of why the embargo remains, I suspect this is probably unlikely to ASB, but thought I'd throw the question open.

 

[Landshark]

Castro's regime could never survive having the embargo lifted. The only thing that keeps Cuba from flying apart like the Warsaw pact countries is the pressure the USA puts on it from the outside.

 

[Orville_third]

Ironically, the Cubans in Congress would be the major voices opposed to it. If a Republican did so, the Cubans would sit out an election. If the Democrats did so, they'd be portrayed as allies to Castro. I'm not sure if Perot would do that, though Nader would and Buchanan might...

 

[Dave Howery]

I'm surprised that businesses in the US weren't then (and aren't now) lobbying to end the embargo. Cuba is essentially a fairly large market that is closed to us.

 

[Wyragen-TXRG4P]

Ironically, the Cubans in Congress would be the major voices opposed to it. If a Republican did so, the Cubans would sit out an election. If the Democrats did so, they'd be portrayed as allies to Castro. I'm not sure if Perot would do that, though Nader would and Buchanan might...

Do they really deserve to be called Cuban, for supporting so much misery for their fellow country men and women?

 

[commanderkai]

Do they really deserve to be called Cuban, for supporting so much misery for their fellow country men and women?

Hold on a second here. To Cuban Americans, who causes said misery? Castro. Removing the embargo might help topple the Castro regime, but at the same time, it might not, either. To them, their homeland is a state that is being oppressed by a Communist regime, and giving said regime the benefits of economic trade with the United States might just bolster the regime even more so.

 

[Landshark]

Hold on a second here. To Cuban Americans, who causes said misery? Castro. Removing the embargo might help topple the Castro regime, but at the same time, it might not, either. To them, their homeland is a state that is being oppressed by a Communist regime, and giving said regime the benefits of economic trade with the United States might just bolster the regime even more so.

You've got to be kidding me. The embargo has been in place almost as long as Castro and it hasn't led to his removal. If something's not done it's job after close to fifty years I'd say it's time to try something new.

 

[commanderkai]

You've got to be kidding me. The embargo has been in place almost as long as Castro and it hasn't led to his removal. If something's not done it's job after close to fifty years I'd say it's time to try something new.

I'm just offering the Cuban American perspective. The insult against Cuban Americans just for their support was uncalled for.

Don't get me wrong, I DO support the lifting of the embargo, though I don't see Castro allowing American goods to be imported for anybody outside of the ruling class of the country. That's the problem of totalitarian governments.

 

[Landshark]

I'm just offering the Cuban American perspective. The insult against Cuban Americans just for their support was uncalled for.

Don't get me wrong, I DO support the lifting of the embargo, though I don't see Castro allowing American goods to be imported for anybody outside of the ruling class of the country. That's the problem of totalitarian governments.

Calling Cuban American politicians idiots for supporting a policy that clearly isn't working is more than justified.

I'd also disagree with you about American goods getting to anyone outside the Cuban ruling class. Black and grey market Western goods were widespread in the Warsaw Pact countries and the fact that the populations of those countries could get a taste of the capitalist good life did more to undermine support for the totalitarian governments of those countries than anything else.

 

[Riain]

For one thing Cuba most probably wouldn't have had their Peak Oil food crisis. Lifting of the embargo would have allowed a lot of US cash to flow into their economy and allowed them to buy oil at market rates. This wouldn't have been as good as vitually being given oil by the Soviets but it the crisis wouldn't have been nearly as bad. I think that perhaps this persecution pulled Cubans together and given Castros regime a new lease of life.

 

[nandalf]

Just to get clarified,the embargo is an american one right?So Cuba can trade with the rest of the world,or am i geting wrong?So why Cuba can not get similar goods from the rest of the world,even if of low standars?

 

[Riain]

Foriegn companies which do business in Cuba are not allowed to conduct business in the US according to the Helms-Burton Act. This would drastically limit Cubas trade propects, and for companies the US is a much bigger and more lucrative market than small, impoverished Cuba.

 

[commanderkai]

Calling Cuban American politicians idiots for supporting a policy that clearly isn't working is more than justified.

Alright, if you say so. I disagree, but labeling Cuban American politicians (and a majority of Cuban Americans as well) as idiots for not wanting to to revoke the embargo on Castro controlled Cuba is a bit much.

I'd also disagree with you about American goods getting to anyone outside the Cuban ruling class. Black and grey market Western goods were widespread in the Warsaw Pact countries and the fact that the populations of those countries could get a taste of the capitalist good life did more to undermine support for the totalitarian governments of those countries than anything else.

Yes and no. Yes, some Western goods will trickle down through the masses through black and grey market means, but at the same time, Castro WILL control who gets what. The fact that the Warsaw Pact populations were exposed to higher quality Western goods, and as such, the downfall of those various totalitarian regimes will make Castro wary to who is exposed to what. On top of this, the fact that Cuba is an island nation limits the amount of goods that can be imported to capable naval facilities.

China is a counter example, as well, where even though a trading relationship occurred, China's totalitarian has not toppled, and said government has controlled who gets access to the wealth.

 

[Rickshaw]

Castro's regime could never survive having the embargo lifted. The only thing that keeps Cuba from flying apart like the Warsaw pact countries is the pressure the USA puts on it from the outside.

On what basis do you make that claim? To at least some degree, the Fidelista are quite popular in Cuba as I understand it. Unlike the regimes of Eastern Europe, the Fidelista one was not imposed, nor maintained by an outside power.

 

[Landshark]

On what basis do you make that claim? To at least some degree, the Fidelista are quite popular in Cuba as I understand it. Unlike the regimes of Eastern Europe, the Fidelista one was not imposed, nor maintained by an outside power.

But how much of that popularity comes from the fact that he's opposing the giant bully who wants to destroy the Cuban revolution? Outside threats and pressure almost always make populations rally around their government.

 

[Landshark]

Alright, if you say so. I disagree, but labeling Cuban American politicians (and a majority of Cuban Americans as well) as idiots for not wanting to to revoke the embargo on Castro controlled Cuba is a bit much.

I'll stand by my original assessment of their intelligence. The embargo has been in effect in one form or another for fifty years and it has demonstrably failed to achieve anything but make life harder for the Cuban people. Dictators never suffer because of sanctions, they'll always find a way to live in comfort even when their people are starving in the streets.

Yes and no. Yes, some Western goods will trickle down through the masses through black and grey market means, but at the same time, Castro WILL control who gets what. The fact that the Warsaw Pact populations were exposed to higher quality Western goods, and as such, the downfall of those various totalitarian regimes will make Castro wary to who is exposed to what. On top of this, the fact that Cuba is an island nation limits the amount of goods that can be imported to capable naval facilities.

I think you overestimate the amount of control Castro can exert. Once the Cuban people get a taste of the Western good life, and I'm sure a good few of them have already through back door channels, Castro's going to have to make the choice between letting those people have access to more freedom and a better standard of living or having those people take those things for themselves.

China is a counter example, as well, where even though a trading relationship occurred, China's totalitarian has not toppled, and said government has controlled who gets access to the wealth.

And again I think you overestimate the amount of control the PRC has over it's people and you underestimate the effects of geography.

First China is always a special case because it contains a sixth of the Human race. Second the sheer size of the country makes it difficult for people in most areas to even no that there's a better standard of living to be had. Cuba is a lot smaller and much closer to the USA, those facts alone make it much easier to undermine a totalitarian goverment by economic means. Every American who visited Cuba and every dollar they spent there would be an ambassador for the Western way of life as opposed to the Communist way.

 

[Beedok]

Apparently after meeting up at Trudeau's funeral Castro and Carter (I think) were working on it, but then Bush got elected.

 

[History_Pintobean]

read this and you'll be surprised:


http://www.iammyownreporter.com/misconceptions.htm


I don't know how accurate the article really is, but the author claims these are all real misconceptions of communist Cuba(that he blames mostly on the US mass media and Cuban Nationalists/Cuban Americans)

I found it very interesting

 

[Rickshaw]

But how much of that popularity comes from the fact that he's opposing the giant bully who wants to destroy the Cuban revolution?

Oh, without a doubt it helps but a lot of it is genuine support. The invention and creation of the "Cuban Threat" by the US government also helps it to maintain support for the embargo as well.

Outside threats and pressure almost always make populations rally around their government.

Not always. Depends upon circumstance. It usually has a short-term effect but long term, without genuine support it invariably results in a loss, not a gain of support. Indonesia under Sukarno with Konfrontasi and Argentina under the Generals with the Falklands/Malvinos war spring to mind as two counter examples to your truism.

 

[Rickshaw]

I'll stand by my original assessment of their intelligence. The embargo has been in effect in one form or another for fifty years and it has demonstrably failed to achieve anything but make life harder for the Cuban people. Dictators never suffer because of sanctions, they'll always find a way to live in comfort even when their people are starving in the streets.

Not quite true. Sanctions can and have upon occasion been very effective. Rhodesia and South Africa are cases in point. Both, in the end collapsed because of sanctions.

I think you overestimate the amount of control Castro can exert. Once the Cuban people get a taste of the Western good life, and I'm sure a good few of them have already through back door channels, Castro's going to have to make the choice between letting those people have access to more freedom and a better standard of living or having those people take those things for themselves.

The Cubans are presently having a "taste of the Western good life" and have been for the last ~15 years since liberalisation started. Quite a few Cubans have either left and returned from visits to the US or been visited by relatives from the US. US TV has been beaming into Cuba for over 40 years. Its not as if they have no experience of this. Cuba is not like the DPRK where the state controls access to all information along with the lives of its citizens completely.

The Cubans aren't stupid. They'd like a better life but they haven't forgotten what it was like before the Revolution when Cuba was very much under the heel. I'd expect to see a change once Raul retires, if not before but it might not be the counter-revolution that many Cuban-Americans dream of.