CSA wins, makes harsh peace

[stevep]

OK, it's ASBish, but if we assume that it happened like that, and that WW1 happens on schedule, with the USA in the CPs' camp, I thought that the US (which'd be even more industrialzed than OTL, have a higher percentage of immigrants and are more open for left ideas) would have a Socialist revolution... voila, the USSA.

Jan 6th, 1917: Big riots in New York that spread to Philadelphia and the Southern Atlantic front. US soldiers form councils, make local armistice with CSA on Jan 14th; some fraternize with Appalachian soldiers.

Jan 23th: Socialists have gained control all over the USA, make armistice with CSA and Britain.

February: During the peace talks Allies demand high reparations, which the workers' and soldiers' councils are absolutely unwilling to pay. Peace talks are abandoned, war begins again. Bronstein / Trotzky starts organizing the Red Army.

March 5th: Battle of Chester. Wilmington, Delaware is taken by Red Army. CSA units in Southern New Jersey cut off, have to be evacuated by ship. Southern Atlantic front broken. Trotzky hurries North, where's enough work to do.

March 21st: Battle of Schenectady, NY. Brits and Canadians are beaten, Mohawk valley is liberated, connection to cities on Lake Ontario restored.

April 10th: Battle of Lawrence, Massachusetts. Brits and Canadians have to retreat to Portland, Maine.

During April, the Red Army thrusts South and occupies all the Chesapeake peninsula.

May: Trotzky organizes sailors' militia (who've been mostly unemployed during the war), sets them over to the North shore of the Lake. The Empire has to retreat troops from New England to guard the capital of Ottawa. They can't prevent Trotzky's strike to the West, where he unites with troops coming from Detroit and enclosing Toronto. Workers in the city start to rebel after propaganda leaflets are smuggled to the city, so it falls on May 17th. Now the Red Army controls the whole peninsula of Toronto.

June 2nd: Battle of Greensburg, Pennsylvania. CSA troops are driven back to Maryland / Virginia.

June 24th: Battle of Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin. Canadians are kicked out of Wisconsin, Duluth falls to Red Army.

July 3rd: Battle of Lewiston, Maine. Trotzky destroys the Canadian army, which gives him the opportunity to occupy all the lands south of St Laurent, except Nova Scotia, until July 30th. Now Montreal and Quebec are besieged.

July 18th: Battle of Pikesville, Maryland. The Atlantic army of the CSA is thoroughly beaten, and its survivors flee South - not only Baltimore, but the old capital of Washington (north of the Potomac) falls.

August 19th: Battle of Morgantown, Virginia (IOTL West Virginia). The Red Army opens the way for the conquest of Western Virginia, and later Kentucky and Tennessee.

September 2nd: Red Army liberates Minneapolis / St Paul. The latter one is renamed Bronstein.

September 28th: Northern Red Army strikes from Kingston, Ontario againt Ottawa. Canadian government flees to Quebec.

November 9th: Battle of Fort Dodge. Canadian Mississippi army and supporintg CSA militia defeated. Red Army takes control of the area between upper Mississippi and Missouri. Now the US have enough food for the starving people.

During the winter, the Allies barely manage to hold the front along the Missouri, Ohio, Potomac and St Laurent, despite Britain sending troops from Europe - where the situation is getting dangerous after Germany has made Russia sign an armistice.

Max

Why two assumptions?

a) That a US heavily defeated and fairly militarised as a result will be more heavily populated and industrialised than OTL? This is more likely to deter/reduce immigration. Not just from Britain/Canada and the CSA, both of which were fairly significant. If your got a more militant US, quite possibly with conscription, its not going to be as attractive to immigrants. Don't forget you're given a lot of good land that attracted settlement to Canada so you will see more people going/saying there.

b) That in the chaos of a revolution the US armies, which were losing heavily beforehand - which is probably unlikely if that well developed - suddenly start winning tremendous victories. Don't forget that the two revolutions in Russia helped cripple the army and destroyed moral, enabling the massive advances the Germans made. True revolutionary France had early successes but that was in a radically different circumstance and if against troops committed to destroying opposing forces, as opposed to the positional warfare of the 18thC they would probably have suffered horrendous losses.

I would also suspect, especially with Germany still fighting strongly, the British/Canadians and probably also the CSA would be willing to make peace on generous terms, i.e. little/no annexations. [Depends on what social assumptions you are making about the various states. However if any equivalent to OTL WWI Britain's interest would be predominantly the threat from Germany].

Steve

 

[Max Sinister]

@stevep:

a) The USA have indeed the stronger industry, but the workers - who'd make up a big part of the male population, and thus of the army - would still suffer under low wages (Henry Ford or his equivalent isn't there yet), 12 hours of work per day and so on. And since the US are dependent on food imports, which suffer during the war, the population is starving, and people are desperate and the opposite of motivated.
The thing about the immigrants is true... now there's the question whether the CSA wishes for many immigrants. Since they're a more conservative society, it could well be that they make immigration laws, leaving only people of Germanic stock in the country, so the Irish, Italians, Jews and Eastern Europeans go to the USA instead, conscription or not. (It's still better than the Russian army where you had to serve 25 years.)
b) I think the situation of the French (or Russian) Revolution could repeat very well. After the USA become Socialist, the soldiers have the promise of a better future, which could give them the motivation they lacked before. During January / February there weren't any fights, which gives them time to take a breath which they need. They've made an armistice, so there's nothing to conquer for the CSA and Canada. And even if they did, they'd have to fight Socialist partisans afterwards, which could be even more costly for them.
c) The CSA and Canada don't want annexations (after all, they pretty much annexed everything which was easy to annex during the ACW), but they want money. Money which the workers / soldiers of the US would have to pay. Maybe lots of money, after all the CSA had to fight a big war, had to suffer many deaths and wants something in return. (This wouldn't be necessary sane, but peace treaties aren't always - in hindsight, you also might think that Versailles should've been different, if only to prevent Hitler.)
d) Hard to say who's the bigger threat for Britain - Germany's strong and expansionist, but the US are also strong, want a revanche and threaten Canada directly. And they're allied to Germany.

Thanks for the questions, and here's the next part:
April 17th: Battle of Winchester, Kentucky. Red Army captures Lexington and the state capital Frankfort. Shortly after, Louisville's siege begins. The city falls on May 3rd.

May: Socialist propagandists have spread the promise of Trotzky that Southern plantations will be divided among the poor whites after the victory. This helps them to get the mountains of Virginia and further south under control. Now the CSA's capital is directly threatened from the West.

After the winter has gone, the Northern Red Army attacks in Canada. Thunder Bay and Winnipeg fall in the West, Montreal and Quebec in the East, where only Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and the island Newfoundland (all guarded by the RN) can resist.

June: Virginia has sent the militia to the Potomac front, leaving noone to keep control of the state itself. When the black slaves start to revolt, nobody can restore order anymore. The Red Army takes Virginia, the CSA government flees to Atlanta, and even parts of North Carolina fall. Trotzky declares that all slaves in the CSA are free.

June 22nd: Red Army takes Nashville and Knoxville, Tennessee.

July 4th: Battle of Fayetteville, NC. Red Army crosses the border to SC.

July 20th: Red Army takes Huntsville, Alabama. Poor whites have control of whole Appalachia.

July / August: New organized Red Cavalry starts liberating Southern Canada (which includes, we remember, the Dakotas, Montana and Wyoming).

August 13th: Slave uprisings in Carolina. Red Army takes Charleston and state capital Columbia. CSA army has to retreat to Augusta.

August 26th: Appalachian militias who now fight for the cause of Socialism strike against Atlanta. Government flees to Montgomery. Many Southerners fear that everything is lost, and the Red Army can enter Georgia.

September 8th: Red Army takes Birmingham, Alabama. The CSA has lost access to iron.

September 15th: Radical elements in the CSA take power. They try to resist the Red scourge by brutally suppressing the slaves and fighting fanatically.

October 10th: Red Cavalry has reached the Rockies. Calgary and Edmonton are besieged.

October 31st: Red Armies from west and east of the Appalachians unite, take Montgomery and Columbus, Georgia. CSA government flees to New Orleans. As things are, they have to give up all areas east of the Mississippi. Now they hope to save themselves by offering Trotzky peace, which he declines.

During the winter, Trotzky starts to redistribute property in the conquered areas of Canada and the CSA. Plantations are divided among former slaves and poor whites, factories and banks become government property. Florida is conquered by the Red Army.

 

[Max Sinister]

March 12th, 1919: Red Army begins the spring offensive with a strike against Nebraska and Colorado.

March 29th: Denver conquered.

April 11th: Battle of Hutchinson, Kansas. Red Army now is able to move into Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas.

April 28th: Red Army breaks British defenses at Amherst, Nova Scotia, conquering the whole peninsula.

May 14th: Oklahoma City conquered.

May 27th: Red Army enters Louisiana.

June 13th: Battle of Amarillo. Red Army enters Texas, the last stronghold of the CSA.

June 25th: Red Army starts crossing the Rockies in the North, aiming at Vancouver.

July 7th: Battle of Abilene. Last strong CSA army and Texan militia are defeated; survivors flee to Mexico.

After Trotsky taking control of Albuquerque on July 21st, the CSA government gives up. The CSA states become part of the USA again. Short time after, Britain cedes Canada and Newfoundland officially to the USSA.

Now North America could see peace, but there's still the republic of California. During the war, many people from Canada and the CSA fled there, or at least transfered their fortunes to Californian banks. In several speeches, Trotzky has already condemned the Californian capitalists.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

One problem is that the British, in theory, could make an error that came back to haunt them but is this very likely?

The British believed in permanent interests and not permanent alliances at the time, but this included the assumption that an effort to guarantee another nation's enmity was a very bad idea. Since sooner or later the British might come into conflict with almost anyone, having guaranteed enemies on top of the current rivalry just wasn't worth it.

The problem would come if the British did something which brought about such a state of affairs without realizing it, say, by supporting American dismemberment in the ACW. Once that was done, the question would be whether the British could manage to appease the USA's anger without being humiliated before the world.

Once that had happened some things would not change. Immigration would continue for decades to come and conscription would be irrelevant. 800,000 people including many men of military age came during the ACW and if that didn't scare people off...

Likewise investment would proceed with minimal change. To be blunt, the big investors of the time really didn't care about politics. France, for instance, was Germany's largest trading partner in 1914 and in 1939. The Berlin-Baghdad Railway was considered a massive threat by the British and, to a lesser degree, the French, but guess who made up nearly 40% of the investment. And so forth.

Possibly the US would be more formidable as military contracts would be sure to spur US industry.

Let's not go overboard. Presume 10-15 years to recover from the ACW defeat, followed by a modest rearmament. Fortifications outside major cities, a standing army of 100,000, new armaments and a few coastal battleships all done by 1890.

Nothing remotely difficult for the US if the will was there and practically all of that was actually done in this period.

Now, from the CSA and Canadian perspective, not so good. Neither of them liked peace-time armies(nor did OTL USA) and very much preferred to wage war on the cheap so if the CSA and Canada now need a standing army of 40,000 each, a cost begins to be tolled.

Early 1890s: US approves bill for navy of 12 coastal battleships on the East Coast, 8 on the West Coast, with substantial cruisers and destroyers. In OTL this was actually debated and the first few built.

Army expands to 250,000 with major work done on a reserve system. OTL the National Guard appeared in this decade.

More related industrial development including armaments, railroads, fortifications and so forth.

Canada and CSA becoming frightened at the cost alone. CSA forced to establish standing army of 100,000, after all, this is all their fault, snarls London. Canada fields an army of 75,000. British forced to expand their army, station two skeletal divisions(25,000 total?) in Canada.

OTL the British were very happy to not have a large army. As late as 1912 they had only six divisions ready for war in Europe!

Deteriorating relations, possible border incidents and diplomatic crisis or two.

1900: USA introduces conscription, CSA and Canada forced to follow. US navy now rivalling for second most powerful in the world. I'm presuming the USN never gets past 50-60% of RN strength. British forced to establish 10 new divisions in 1902 instead of 6 in 1912. Getting costly here.

And so forth...

 

[Grimm Reaper]

In all honesty, a WWI fought with the US as coldly neutral to the British and CSA would be enough. The changes would kill the British.

NO US manpower in WWI.

NO US trade or economic support or loans.

NO Canadian or CSA manpower for fear a vengeful US might jump them given the chance.

Some British forces diverted to Canada, just in case, both troops and ships.

1917: At least one offensive on the Western Front from previous years was cancelled by the British, less advancement in the Middle East due to need to divert Australians to Western Front(won't they love that). Fall of Tsarist Russia as OTL.

1918: Italy hit by offensive as in OTL, no British or French forces available for support, fall of Venice leads to Italian surrender.

OTL the British and French sent only a few divisions, fewer than Canada alone had made available.

German drive on Paris narrowly turned back. Counteroffensives, led by new British 'tanks', enjoy much less success due to lesser manpower. Most of Belgium remains in German hands. Germany will have time to develop anti-tank weapons and their own armor.

1919: Final Western Allied offensive fails, over one million French/British soldiers killed. Clemenceau, Lloyd George governments collapse. Peace talks begin under neutral auspices.

Bear in mind that Germany has beaten Russia, Romania and now Italy. Austria is basically on vacation since early 1918(no wars on the border) and simply sends an expeditionary force to help Germany. More importantly, a statemate on the Western Front is now death for the Allies as the Germans get Eastern Europe and the Balkans that way. A final bloodbath must be attempted.

Treaty of Geneva:

Romania receives Bessarbia, forfeits Transylvania to Hungary and border regions to Bulgaria.

Ottomans lose southern 'Iraq' to British, perhaps 'Palestine' and 'Transjordan' while a separatist monarchist takes Arabia. Ottomans gain Italian-held Dodecanese and Libya.

Greece gets off with little change.

Italy suffers lose of portions of Venetia.

Germany annexes or establishes satellites in Baltic States, Ukraine, rump Poland(half OTL size) and Finland.

Bulgaria also receives Macedonia from Serbia.

Russian Civil War ends in 1922, following murder of Tsar and his family by Bolsheviks as an outraged Kaiser sends aid. Execution of Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin in 1923.

Demilitarization of French border within 60 miles of Germany.

Belgium restored as pre-war. Not historical but let's have Germany do one nice thing here.

And so forth.

Note that the US isn't even involved in the war!



An interesting post-war scenario would be the British resolving their debts to the US through some settlement where everything the British gained post-ACW is returned to the US plus substantial additions and a free hand in the CSA and any other splinters like 'Pacific America'.

 

[stevep]

@stevep:

a) The USA have indeed the stronger industry, but the workers - who'd make up a big part of the male population, and thus of the army - would still suffer under low wages (Henry Ford or his equivalent isn't there yet), 12 hours of work per day and so on. And since the US are dependent on food imports, which suffer during the war, the population is starving, and people are desperate and the opposite of motivated.
The thing about the immigrants is true... now there's the question whether the CSA wishes for many immigrants. Since they're a more conservative society, it could well be that they make immigration laws, leaving only people of Germanic stock in the country, so the Irish, Italians, Jews and Eastern Europeans go to the USA instead, conscription or not. (It's still better than the Russian army where you had to serve 25 years.)
b) I think the situation of the French (or Russian) Revolution could repeat very well. After the USA become Socialist, the soldiers have the promise of a better future, which could give them the motivation they lacked before. During January / February there weren't any fights, which gives them time to take a breath which they need. They've made an armistice, so there's nothing to conquer for the CSA and Canada. And even if they did, they'd have to fight Socialist partisans afterwards, which could be even more costly for them.
c) The CSA and Canada don't want annexations (after all, they pretty much annexed everything which was easy to annex during the ACW), but they want money. Money which the workers / soldiers of the US would have to pay. Maybe lots of money, after all the CSA had to fight a big war, had to suffer many deaths and wants something in return. (This wouldn't be necessary sane, but peace treaties aren't always - in hindsight, you also might think that Versailles should've been different, if only to prevent Hitler.)
d) Hard to say who's the bigger threat for Britain - Germany's strong and expansionist, but the US are also strong, want a revanche and threaten Canada directly. And they're allied to Germany.

Thanks for the questions, and here's the next part:
April 17th: Battle of Winchester, Kentucky. Red Army captures Lexington and the state capital Frankfort. Shortly after, Louisville's siege begins. The city falls on May 3rd.

May: Socialist propagandists have spread the promise of Trotzky that Southern plantations will be divided among the poor whites after the victory. This helps them to get the mountains of Virginia and further south under control. Now the CSA's capital is directly threatened from the West.

After the winter has gone, the Northern Red Army attacks in Canada. Thunder Bay and Winnipeg fall in the West, Montreal and Quebec in the East, where only Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and the island Newfoundland (all guarded by the RN) can resist.

June: Virginia has sent the militia to the Potomac front, leaving noone to keep control of the state itself. When the black slaves start to revolt, nobody can restore order anymore. The Red Army takes Virginia, the CSA government flees to Atlanta, and even parts of North Carolina fall. Trotzky declares that all slaves in the CSA are free.

June 22nd: Red Army takes Nashville and Knoxville, Tennessee.

July 4th: Battle of Fayetteville, NC. Red Army crosses the border to SC.

July 20th: Red Army takes Huntsville, Alabama. Poor whites have control of whole Appalachia.

July / August: New organized Red Cavalry starts liberating Southern Canada (which includes, we remember, the Dakotas, Montana and Wyoming).

August 13th: Slave uprisings in Carolina. Red Army takes Charleston and state capital Columbia. CSA army has to retreat to Augusta.

August 26th: Appalachian militias who now fight for the cause of Socialism strike against Atlanta. Government flees to Montgomery. Many Southerners fear that everything is lost, and the Red Army can enter Georgia.

September 8th: Red Army takes Birmingham, Alabama. The CSA has lost access to iron.

September 15th: Radical elements in the CSA take power. They try to resist the Red scourge by brutally suppressing the slaves and fighting fanatically.

October 10th: Red Cavalry has reached the Rockies. Calgary and Edmonton are besieged.

October 31st: Red Armies from west and east of the Appalachians unite, take Montgomery and Columbus, Georgia. CSA government flees to New Orleans. As things are, they have to give up all areas east of the Mississippi. Now they hope to save themselves by offering Trotzky peace, which he declines.

During the winter, Trotzky starts to redistribute property in the conquered areas of Canada and the CSA. Plantations are divided among former slaves and poor whites, factories and banks become government property. Florida is conquered by the Red Army.

Max

My basic concern is still that the USSA in the midst of revolution and disorder is suddenly turning into a military superpower. Not only throwing back the powers that have, unrealistically I suspect, defeated it so easily then going on to conquer them. All with the chaos of a fairly violent revolution. Don't forget that, although they suffered terrible losses the Russians lost relatively little land until after the 1917 revolutions. After that the army fell apart and the Germans, despite increasingly strained on the western front, was able to occupy large areas with minimal resistance. Despite their deep patriotism the bulk of the Russians had had enough and just wanted to return home.

In this scenario you have the equivalent of them suddenly storming through eastern Europe to reach Berlin and even the Rhine.

As I say I think it far more likely that Britain at least, concerned at the continued threat from Germany would be willing to accept generous terms. The CSA might be less tolerant but even so it has no other enemy to fight so should be able to hold its own.

Part of the thing I think your forgetting is that modern warfare depends so much on organisation. The disorder that such a revolution would bring would make the maintaining of the US war machine very difficult. I could foresee it holding its own with considerable partisan warfare against say CSA attacks but not defeating organised states which could mobilise modern fighting forces, and especially not such massive gains.

Don't forget that by this time the population of what GR called S Canada would probably be pretty fully integrated into Canada, especially since most of the settlers would have arrived after its transfer from the US. The last thing they would want would be disorganised armed units bringing war and revolution to their homes.

Steve

 

[stevep]

One problem is that the British, in theory, could make an error that came back to haunt them but is this very likely?

The problem would come if the British did something which brought about such a state of affairs without realizing it, say, by supporting American dismemberment in the ACW. Once that was done, the question would be whether the British could manage to appease the USA's anger without being humiliated before the world.

Early 1890s: US approves bill for navy of 12 coastal battleships on the East Coast, 8 on the West Coast, with substantial cruisers and destroyers. In OTL this was actually debated and the first few built.

GR

That's one reason, other than Britain's historical support for the north while I think the basic idea behind the scenario is very dodgy. The US would have to be pretty offensive to provoke both Britain joining the war then going to such lengths to inflict such a crushing defeat on them. It might then be so hostile that relations would continue to be icy.

I think the hostile and militarised US you project would be possible although not as powerful as you suggest. While many at the time don't both about politics when investing it is difficult to see the vast amounts of British investment in the US in OTL being maintained, let alone increased. If nothing else with a hostile US investors would be concerned their assets might be seized. Ditto with the population.

It would still be a very formidable opponent and if Britain couldn't avoid being involved in a major conflict in Europe at the same time things would be very grim.

Have I missed something with your 1890 programme above. I thought that with Californian independence and British gains does the US have any real Pacific coastline to base a force at?

Steve