Could the kingdom of imerina have survived and become a power like Japan?
- Thread starter Inkarri
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They just aren't comparable. Madagascar was a tribal society with a few ports until the 1000s, while Japan had feudalism for millennia by then.
And they're detached and isolated too, not to mention that Japan had a very rare incident where the monarch effectively modernized the nation through trade.
It is impossible, sorry.
And they're detached and isolated too, not to mention that Japan had a very rare incident where the monarch effectively modernized the nation through trade.
It is impossible, sorry.
I suspect they don't really have the population to make a bid for credible regional power, even in the best case scenario where they actually manage to industrialize as planned. Maybe the best case is pulling a Botswana to retain political autonomy and snipe some French expats to help modernize the country after decolonization, leading to a small but pretty prosperous African state by the present day.
That's a massive oversimplification of how the Meiji Revolution happened - it wasn't some one-off "very rare" incident, and it wasn't just Meiji who was responsible.
As to OP's question, it's rather unlikely...
At best Madagascar might maintain it's independence, although probably in a position like Thailand where it's essentially an informal colony, but expansion and becoming a regional power like Japan? ASB. Madagascar is starting from a much lower population demography, in a worse geographical position, with a more backwards technological and institutional base.
It's true that OP didn't set a hard deadline for when this has to happen. And I don't see regional power status as being necessarily tied to territorial expansion. I would describe South Korea and Canada as regional powers in a modern context even though neither has particular territorial aspirations.
LampLighters
Banned
Madagascar was only (mostly) unified in the 19th century, while Japan had been united and peaceful for centuries by then.
Grey Wolf
Donor
IMHO you'd need a more politically fragmented Indian Ocean, no rise of British hegemony. This would not only allow Madagascar to play off continuing rivalries but also to attempt to do a Sardinia, send an expeditionary force allied to one of the competing powers to take part in some regional conflict, that will never threaten its own actual homeland.
If, for example, powers are competing in India, and there are wars led by the powers, including regional allies, well into the later 19th century, then Madagascar can play them off for what it can gain, then for example send an expeditionary regiment to, say help the British against a Russian incursion into Baluchistan, or help the French against a Dutch-led thrust on Pondicherry from the South.
In its turn, of course, the world that has produced this has probably also produced something different in North America, maybe keeping France competitive there in the St. Lawrence/Quebec colonies long-term, leading to the British remaining in charge of the American colonies. It's all butterflies and knock-ons, because to a large degree losing the American colonies led to both a greater focus on India, and more adventurers, displaced people free to lead there.
If, for example, powers are competing in India, and there are wars led by the powers, including regional allies, well into the later 19th century, then Madagascar can play them off for what it can gain, then for example send an expeditionary regiment to, say help the British against a Russian incursion into Baluchistan, or help the French against a Dutch-led thrust on Pondicherry from the South.
In its turn, of course, the world that has produced this has probably also produced something different in North America, maybe keeping France competitive there in the St. Lawrence/Quebec colonies long-term, leading to the British remaining in charge of the American colonies. It's all butterflies and knock-ons, because to a large degree losing the American colonies led to both a greater focus on India, and more adventurers, displaced people free to lead there.
Madagascar like power
Perhaps if the division of Africa did not happen, if France were not interested in Madagascar, or even that the crisis of the pink map ends in a war between Madagascar and Portugal in the Japan-Russia style.
The big problem is that a generous estimate of Madagascar's population in 1800 would be 2 million. Japan in the 1800 had a population of 30 million and was the 6th most-populous country in the world. Japan was also much more advanced technologically and had had a high literacy rate. Comparing Madagascar to Japan is roughly the equivalent of comparing modern-day Brazil to the Central African Republic. Besides Japan, only China, Korea, the Ottoman Empire, and some of the realms in India had the population to modernize and become a power. What Madagascar might be able to do is pull a Siam with the French and British competing over it but not annexing it. That worked fine for Thailand, which is wealthier than most of its neighbors.
Japan had feudalism from about 300 - 400 AD but I still agree with your conclusion.
Deleted member 147978
Of course it was sarcastic, since you mentioned King Julien in a Madagascar thread so.
One thing anyone will quickly learn about me is that I have the lamest sense of humor ever.
Did Portugal have any desire to be in that island and did the Marina have any claims to the centuries old Portuguese ports and forts in Mozambique?
As noted, the problem is that the Merina monarchy unified the island much too late. They'd need to start centuries earlier, but centuries earlier the coastal kingdoms like the Sakalava were more powerful, wealthier, and better able to gain access to foreign weapons. A highland state unifying Madagascar is probably a fluke of history, since the lowlands are much more malarial and caused a sizable death rate to Merina administrators and soldiers.
As for population, it should be noted that because of subjugation of recently conquered lands, something like 1/3 of the island's population died during the early 19th century. Epidemic and famine killed many as well. Such traumatic unification would need to have been pushed back for the Malagasy to have a chance and give their population time to expand.
But Madagascar is a strategic island, especially for a power like France with interests in the Far East but no ports on the Cape thanks to their rival Britain. They'd need to play France off Britain and later Germany (ideally Germany) to get anywhere. I think this sets them down a course of war with Portugal, since both France and Germany want to expand their interests in East Africa, Portugal is a British ally, and the Malagasy would want to be recognised as a modern and successful empire so would want to take some or all of Portuguese Mozambique. Hell, even Britain might not care much if it's after the Pink Map and could support it as a way of punishing the Portuguese.
Now yes, this is the era of scientific racism, but the Malagasy and in particular the Merina could actually benefit from that (and would argue for it themselves) by pointing out that the Merina elite are actually of the "Malay race" (term used back then) which "naturally dominate the lesser negroes of Madagascar" (to put it in terms used by someone from that era). A victory over Portugal can be chalked up to the inferior racial quality of Portuguese colonial soldiers compared to "partly Asiatic" Malagasy soldiers or of the Portuguese themselves who are "the most African of the Mediterranean race" or some other nonsense. This is probably the one advantage of a Merina unification of Madagascar since they can use European racism to their advantage unlike the Sakalava or another group where there would need to be an "explanation" why dark-skinned elite owned so many lighter-skinned slaves (as happened at times IOTL).
I'd give Portugal the advantage in a hypothetical 1890s-1900s war since they'd be on the defensive, but this is the sort of war which is won and lost by a single naval battle. Assuming the Merina train their gun crews well and get halfway decent ships from Germany or France (French battleships in that era were utterly weird, but the Malagasy can't afford them and would probably buy cruisers instead) they'd probably be able to squeeze out a victory and bankrupt themselves in the process.
Madagascar would essentially be a naval-focused version of Thailand.
As for population, it should be noted that because of subjugation of recently conquered lands, something like 1/3 of the island's population died during the early 19th century. Epidemic and famine killed many as well. Such traumatic unification would need to have been pushed back for the Malagasy to have a chance and give their population time to expand.
I don't think they'd have the resources to support any expedition on that level, at most they could maybe send a ship. Anything beyond the Maldives would probably be impossible for the Malagasy to seriously try and take part in.
But Madagascar is a strategic island, especially for a power like France with interests in the Far East but no ports on the Cape thanks to their rival Britain. They'd need to play France off Britain and later Germany (ideally Germany) to get anywhere. I think this sets them down a course of war with Portugal, since both France and Germany want to expand their interests in East Africa, Portugal is a British ally, and the Malagasy would want to be recognised as a modern and successful empire so would want to take some or all of Portuguese Mozambique. Hell, even Britain might not care much if it's after the Pink Map and could support it as a way of punishing the Portuguese.
Now yes, this is the era of scientific racism, but the Malagasy and in particular the Merina could actually benefit from that (and would argue for it themselves) by pointing out that the Merina elite are actually of the "Malay race" (term used back then) which "naturally dominate the lesser negroes of Madagascar" (to put it in terms used by someone from that era). A victory over Portugal can be chalked up to the inferior racial quality of Portuguese colonial soldiers compared to "partly Asiatic" Malagasy soldiers or of the Portuguese themselves who are "the most African of the Mediterranean race" or some other nonsense. This is probably the one advantage of a Merina unification of Madagascar since they can use European racism to their advantage unlike the Sakalava or another group where there would need to be an "explanation" why dark-skinned elite owned so many lighter-skinned slaves (as happened at times IOTL).
I'd give Portugal the advantage in a hypothetical 1890s-1900s war since they'd be on the defensive, but this is the sort of war which is won and lost by a single naval battle. Assuming the Merina train their gun crews well and get halfway decent ships from Germany or France (French battleships in that era were utterly weird, but the Malagasy can't afford them and would probably buy cruisers instead) they'd probably be able to squeeze out a victory and bankrupt themselves in the process.
Madagascar would essentially be a naval-focused version of Thailand.
Portugal had interests in Madagascar historically, but not in the 19th century IIRC. Madagascar would probably take what they could get in Africa from Portugal even if they have as much of a claim on it as Japan had on Vladivostok.
Of all the comments, yours satisfies me almost completely. I give you my cordial respects.
It is the best ucronia I can find on Madagascar.
Thank you. It's a topic that's interested me for a while but I've never really felt the urge to make it a full TL and start really devouring the literature on it.
Most PODs involving a more successful Merina/Madagascar involve having Radama I (who unified most of the island and opened it to Europeans) living longer (he died of alcoholism at 35) and killing Queen Ranavalona I (whose tyrannical policies contributed to a lot of deaths) earlier. After that, make sure someone like Radama II isn't assassinated.