Could the Irish Rebellion of 1798 have succeeded?

[Heavy]

Several factors seem to stack the odds against the success of the Unitied Irishmen uprising at the end of the 18th-century, but is there any situation in which the rebellion could have gone through?

As far as I am aware, there are a couple of issues which bear some consideration.

There's the question of French intervention in Ireland; Tone had successfully negotiated military aid from the revolutionary government but the expeditionary force commanded by Hoche was scuppered by bad weather (the debacle would eventually cost Hoche his life and Tone's chief ally in Paris his position). However, shortly after the rebellion got underway, a small French incursion under Humbert enjoyed some success in Connaught before they were beaten by Lake.

I suspect that changing the weather patterns would be a bit too out-there to be plausible, wouldn't it?

Second, we must consider the leadership of the United Irishmen themselves. Relatively few had any practical military experience, with the exception of Lord Fitzgerald, an officer in the British army in America during the War Of Independence. Fitzgerald planned much of the rebellion and was intended to be its commander on the appointed day, but he was betrayed and arrested before it could go through and subsequently died in prison of wounds sustained during his capture. Would his survival in order to actively co-ordinate the uprising have made a substantial impact?

Of course, we would also need to account for the apparent incompetence displayed by some of the rebel leaders (setting off the gunpowder store early, showing up to take Dublin Castle with a single ladder, that sort of thing) and the strategy pursued by the Crown forces (ie. dividing the United Irishmen from their nominal allies, such as the northern Presbyterians and the Catholic middle class).

Even if the rebellion's success is impossible, what could we speculate as the long-term outcome if it had gone through?

 

[Germaniac]

The 1798 rebellion is probably the best chance at a peace full Ireland. The Protestant upper class, Presbyterian middle class, and Catholic majority lower class had united behind a civic Irish identity. In order for this to work Great Britain needs to be spread extremely thin and the French need to find a way to ship enough weapons to equip not only their 14k army but at least a similar number of Irish soldiers. Otherwise the rebellion will fail, the Irish used primarily pitchforks in the rebellion. The real test will be winning the peace, even if Hoche proves to be the military genius that some of us believe he could have proved to be the British aren't going to just give up Ireland. Even with a complete victory the British can always find enough troops to invade again. The peace will have to be humiliating to the British which means a much worse war of the second coalition. The only way I see this happening is if Napoleon wins big in the middle east but those gains are traded for Ireland and Egypt goes to the British. Your gonna have to give the French a damn good reason to do that though.

 

[Styrofoam Boots]

An independent Ireland would be an easy invasion point to Britain. They would not let that happen no matter what.

 

[sparky42]

An independent Ireland would be an easy invasion point to Britain. They would not let that happen no matter what.

They certainly wouldn't have accepted a French aligned Ireland at this point and would have attacked. It might also depend on how wide spread support the new Ireland could generate amongst the population. Ireland at this time has about 1/3 of the total population of the Island's so if they could gather enough strength the UK would have to concentrate a fair amount of effort to retake and hold Ireland.

 

[benjamin]

I'm no expert on this era of history, but i do wonder if there isn't a way that Britain would come to the realization that an independent Ireland would be more beneficial to Britain than a constantly restive pseudo-colony. It's very hard to argue that Britain wasn't better of in the long term by allowing US independence. The wealth acquired by trans-Atlantic trade (not to mention far lower costs to Britain once the thirteen colonies were own their own) more than justified Britain's decision not to fight to the bitter end to hold America.

What if Ireland had agreed never to ally with a foreign power, allow free and open trade with Britain, open its ports to the RN, respect religious freedom, respect all property rights, and a few other things in return for political independence? Would Britain have been satisfied?

Benjamin

 

[Heavy]

An independent Ireland would be an easy invasion point to Britain. They would not let that happen no matter what.

There's the rub. As a matter of fact, it's my understanding that the newly-independent United States had a plan for an invasion of Ireland in a worst-case scenario which they hoped would force Britain to capitulate.

When Hoche's expedition failed, Tone returned to Paris to try his luck with the revolutionary government again, but by this point his chief supporter in the directory had fallen from grace and Bonaparte had become a key figure. Although he acknowledged the strategic potential of Ireland, he decided that invading Egypt to separate Britain from India would be a more effective plan of attack.

What if Ireland had agreed never to ally with a foreign power, allow free and open trade with Britain, open its ports to the RN, respect religious freedom, respect all property rights, and a few other things in return for political independence? Would Britain have been satisfied?

That's what Grattan and his supporters, the Irish Volunteers and the Patriots had campaigned for ("a free trade or a glorious revolution" and so on); their chief grievance was that they believed they did not enjoy the full rights they were entitled to as British citizens. I imagine that if the rebellion had not occurred, they eventually would have pursued home rule or dominion status within the empire. As a matter of fact, when the rebellion was put down, Pitt attempted to supplement the Act of Union with a push for Catholic emancipation, but when the King made it clear that he was opposed to the measure, he felt compelled to resign.

 

[Tyr]

I'm no expert on this era of history, but i do wonder if there isn't a way that Britain would come to the realization that an independent Ireland would be more beneficial to Britain than a constantly restive pseudo-colony. It's very hard to argue that Britain wasn't better of in the long term by allowing US independence. The wealth acquired by trans-Atlantic trade (not to mention far lower costs to Britain once the thirteen colonies were own their own) more than justified Britain's decision not to fight to the bitter end to hold America.

What if Ireland had agreed never to ally with a foreign power, allow free and open trade with Britain, open its ports to the RN, respect religious freedom, respect all property rights, and a few other things in return for political independence? Would Britain have been satisfied?

Benjamin

Ireland wasn't a pseudo-resistive colony though. It was firmly part of European politics, not colonial politics. Things worked differently in Europe. Everything was much more important.

The only way I'd think would be a Republican revolution in Britain too. The commons in Britain might well accept such an arrangment. The monarch had too much power at the time and no way would the monarchy relinquish the crown of Ireland.
Plus of course the factor of trust. Trust doesnt' come easy. It definitely wouldnt in this case.,
And then theres the catholic factor....Britain was still rather paranoid about a catholic take over at this point.

 

[Georgie Porgie]

there isn't a way that Britain would come to the realization that an independent Ireland would be more beneficial to Britain than a constantly restive pseudo-colony.

The English historically have been paranoid about two things:
1) Invasion from France;
2) Irish up risings.

They have always massivily over reacted to both, in this time period they spent about £250,000 on building a canal to defeat the French if they landed in Sussex.
The English reaction to rebellion in Ireland is written in the blood of Irish patriots!
England will NEVER allow the Irish freedom whilst France is seem as a potential enemy.