Could the invention of planes be delayed by let's say 30 years? And if possible then what effect on the world would this have?
Could the invention of heavier than flight be delayed?
- Thread starter GlebPro2004
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Driftless
Donor
One of the hooks is how you define the issue. Several aviators successfully flew gliders(Cayley, Lillienthal and others) before 1900, even some (i.e Clement Ader and others) may well have gotten their planes to leave the ground. The Wrights combined leaving the ground under power AND under some degree of control. The New Zealander Richard Pearse may have flow his powered, heavier than air plane before the Wrights. Gustave Whitehead may have flown his machine as well. Alberto Santos Dumont, Glenn Curtis, or others probably fly by the end of 1904 with comparable performance to the Wrights. Bigshot, well connected scientists like Smauel Langley and Alexander Graham Bell, and Octave Chanute were extensively experimenting with powered heavier-than-air flight before 1903. There were so many separate adventurers, engineers, and scientists involved that powered, controlled, heavier-than-air flight any later than 1905 is really unlikely.
A big part of getting to useful flight is getting details like the control surfaces right , and having a efficient propeller. There was a lot of hit & miss guess work in this & pursuit of a lot of false leads. A look at who was doing systematic wind tunnel testing, and propellor design & how they progressed gives some important clues to how fast this progressed to the 'functional aircraft of 1910-1914 vs the breakthrough experiments of 1890 - 1905. ..and where the choke points were.
GlebPro2004 wrote:
US development was almost a decade behind European development at the start of WWI, despite it being the "birthplace of powered flight"
Why? First thing the Wrights did was file a suit to granted a 10 year "exclusive patent" on "Controlled Heavier Than Air Flight". Shortly afterwards they sued Glenn Curtiss for violation of this patent and spent the next 10 years pretty much fighting court battles against anyone and everyone who used 'their' technology to fly. At the same time they went after and closed down many of the research sharing groups and publications as "spreading copyright and patent violations" one of which was organized and run by Octave Chanute in which they had made major contribution but also received advice and support.
This included attempts to get similar "monopoly" patents overseas which were either ignored or failed to find valid legal support. However as acceptance was spotty and any attempts at enforcement very negligible the only effect was to keep European aviators from visiting the US.
IF you can find a way to have the 'monopoly' in Europe you can get a similar delay if it is enforced. But much beyond about a decade of slow progress is impossible.
The main issues for powered flight was:
1) A light weight high power powerplant
2) Actual control of the vehicle in flight
US development was almost a decade behind European development at the start of WWI, despite it being the "birthplace of powered flight"
Why? First thing the Wrights did was file a suit to granted a 10 year "exclusive patent" on "Controlled Heavier Than Air Flight". Shortly afterwards they sued Glenn Curtiss for violation of this patent and spent the next 10 years pretty much fighting court battles against anyone and everyone who used 'their' technology to fly. At the same time they went after and closed down many of the research sharing groups and publications as "spreading copyright and patent violations" one of which was organized and run by Octave Chanute in which they had made major contribution but also received advice and support.This included attempts to get similar "monopoly" patents overseas which were either ignored or failed to find valid legal support. However as acceptance was spotty and any attempts at enforcement very negligible the only effect was to keep European aviators from visiting the US.
IF you can find a way to have the 'monopoly' in Europe you can get a similar delay if it is enforced. But much beyond about a decade of slow progress is impossible.
The main issues for powered flight was:
1) A light weight high power powerplant
2) Actual control of the vehicle in flight
Would the development of aircraft really be that much worse with a later start? I was under the impression that the main problem was insufficient engine horsepower. Engine horsepower would presumably continue to increase even presuming aircraft aren't being utilized, for things like racing cars or other high power/high density applications. Once the appropriate aerodynamic principles are established, propellers figured out - something which seems like it would be faster than OTL as the general technological level would have advanced - it seems like lost time would be made up quickly, and the impact of WW1 aircraft originally was... marginal. As long as they are capable of providing artillery spotting and reconnaissance, their impact on the war isn't greatly changed. The lack of high performance fighter aircraft wouldn't really change much, as they themselves weren't important, it was their effect on reconnaissance aircraft was that important. While bombing aircraft would be impacted, their utility was marginal anyway.
Driftless
Donor
Being able to effectively control an aircraft in three axis(sp?) was a critical component to first flights. The Wrights used wing warping, which worked.... sort of. But that method had great limitations and soon gave way to the aeleron/flap form. That was every bit as critical as a powerful and lightweight engine.
marathag
Banned
The Wrights did go the scientific route, but they were secretive enough that the others, esp. Glen Curtiss, succeeded by 'That looks about right',
along with Santos Dumont 'This one should work better' No.14
While the others were out flying(badly, in some cases) in Public, the Wrights only came out years later for another public flight, with their Lawyers to shut others down on wing warping, that forced others to do ailerons to get around that set of patents
Well yes, but presumably that can be last ground which is made up quickly. If first flight was delayed 10 years, then surely by a few years later there would be conventional controls, and after that, would not performance be good enough for a reasonable artillery spotter and tactical reconnaissance aircraft?
I think it could have been delayed by 5 or so years if say the Wrights and a few other of the earliest aviators had had fatal setbacks.
This could have meant that by WW1 aeroplanes were far more primitive (than they even were OTL) maybe only just taking off (pardon the pun), airships would thus have had longer to develop and aeroplanes may not have featured in WW1 at all (except maybe by 1917-18 in limited roles). The 1920s could be quite different without the aeroplane technology advances and the ex-military craft in flying schools. Airships would retain their pre-eminance for longer.
This could have meant that by WW1 aeroplanes were far more primitive (than they even were OTL) maybe only just taking off (pardon the pun), airships would thus have had longer to develop and aeroplanes may not have featured in WW1 at all (except maybe by 1917-18 in limited roles). The 1920s could be quite different without the aeroplane technology advances and the ex-military craft in flying schools. Airships would retain their pre-eminance for longer.
Driftless
Donor
The Wrights did go the scientific route, but they were secretive enough that the others, esp. Glen Curtiss, succeeded by 'That looks about right',
along with Santos Dumont 'This one should work better' No.14
While the others were out flying(badly, in some cases) in Public, the Wrights only came out years later for another public flight, with their Lawyers to shut others down on wing warping, that forced others to do ailerons to get around that set of patents
Those Magnificent Men in Their Flying Machines (1965) For those of you who haven't seen it, it's a big budget farce, using the premise of a 1910 air race from Brighton to Paris. There's short bits near the beginning showing historical footage of some of the less successful and even loopy flight experiments of the era. There are a few ahistorical whimsys thrown in as maguffins to carry the story along. However, most of the movie uses 1960's replica of 1910-ish aircraft in flight; and it does give a feel for the sense of experimentation and trust-your-luck-to-god adventure for those pioneer aviators.
The Wrights duly get the credit for their tethered glider, aerofoil experiments etc, but it was their inspired engineer who crafted an engine with a power/weight to keep the 'Flyer' off the ground...
Sadly, the Wrights' patent wars is a cruel echo of the bitter litigation which set back the development of steam power by almost fifty years. IIRC, the later tussle between Edison & Swann over electric tech was eventually resolved more amicably...
Sadly, the Wrights' patent wars is a cruel echo of the bitter litigation which set back the development of steam power by almost fifty years. IIRC, the later tussle between Edison & Swann over electric tech was eventually resolved more amicably...
Riain
Banned
I believe that is actually in the spec:
Lightweight, strong, high lift structure
High power to weight engine
Losts of fatal accidents.
The Wright's " mine,mine,it's all mine" attitude which seems typ8cal of inventors didn't help. But as noted the need for a suuficently powerful engine was the stumbling block. The engine the Wright's used was just barely enough. The radial designed for Langely was far superior in terms of power.
IMO the Wright's greatest breakthrough was in the propellors
IMO the Wright's greatest breakthrough was in the propellors
If a flying machine was to be much delayed, there was much infrastructure established by 1905, such as 8 national aero clubs which met in Paris to establish an international body, the FAI, to govern sport flying. The Seguin brothers were devising a rotary Gnome engine, and the Chauviere propeller company was established and didn't want to wait 10 years for customers. Louis Bleriot, with help from Raymond Saulnier, created Bleriot's eleventh experimental aeroplane in 1908. He had to get it right eventually.
Interesting topic, though I might disappoint you.
By the early 20th century, the prerequisities are already well in place, and there are plenty of people trying to build the first practical aeroplanes. As even I have detailed on AH.com in the past, it's actually quite probable a few other pioneers, such as Percy Pilcher, might have invented a practical heavier-than-air aircraft already in the late 1890s.
The best way to delay heavier-than-air vehicles is to retard technological development as a whole. Keep the development of small steam engines and internal combustion engines behind OTL, for at least 40 years, and you'll delay more affordable motorism, more affordable vehicle motors, and by extension, more affordable and practical motors for early planes. The propeller shape and wing shape innovations and the development of the control surfaces concept were crucial as well, as others have already highlighted.
Also, take a look at this older thread, it also discusses the topic.
By the early 20th century, the prerequisities are already well in place, and there are plenty of people trying to build the first practical aeroplanes. As even I have detailed on AH.com in the past, it's actually quite probable a few other pioneers, such as Percy Pilcher, might have invented a practical heavier-than-air aircraft already in the late 1890s.
The best way to delay heavier-than-air vehicles is to retard technological development as a whole. Keep the development of small steam engines and internal combustion engines behind OTL, for at least 40 years, and you'll delay more affordable motorism, more affordable vehicle motors, and by extension, more affordable and practical motors for early planes. The propeller shape and wing shape innovations and the development of the control surfaces concept were crucial as well, as others have already highlighted.
Also, take a look at this older thread, it also discusses the topic.
Marathag wrote:
The "problem" was he talked to the Wrights which they then tried to claim he 'stole' their ideas.
And when he and several others planned to attend an "aero-meet" in California in 1910 IIRC they were initially threatened with arrest but it was later dropped to 'just' confiscation of their aeroplanes as "patent violations" of the Wrights patents.
According to the Wrights suite against Curtiss-et-all their patents, though they only specifically mentioned wing-warping as a control method INCLUDED ALL OTHER METHODS OF CONTROL, including ailerons, elevators and really ANY OTHER means of control. They were exstatic when a court decided that ailerons were not the same as wing warping because their lawyers' could now argue that their patents covered ALL possible means of control not just those (wing warping) specifically mentioned.
I read the book "Birdmen" (https://www.amazon.com/Birdmen-Wright-Brothers-Curtiss-Control/dp/0345538056) a few years ago and it was just horrifying to see the progression of how bad the situation was. The Wrights literally wanted a 10 year monopoly on all aircraft production and saw absolutely no reason for anyone to consider this was not a 'reasonable' payback for their research and development efforts. They went as far as having all the aeronautical organizations they themselves had used to conduct that research SHUT DOWN to avoid "patent theft" including bringing Chanute, who had been a supporter but wished for more data sharing, under suite to shut down his newsletter.
And for those who might wonder where this came from keep in mind that rocketman Robert Goddard was cut from the same mold...
Randy
The "problem" was he talked to the Wrights which they then tried to claim he 'stole' their ideas.
And when he and several others planned to attend an "aero-meet" in California in 1910 IIRC they were initially threatened with arrest but it was later dropped to 'just' confiscation of their aeroplanes as "patent violations" of the Wrights patents.
According to the Wrights suite against Curtiss-et-all their patents, though they only specifically mentioned wing-warping as a control method INCLUDED ALL OTHER METHODS OF CONTROL, including ailerons, elevators and really ANY OTHER means of control. They were exstatic when a court decided that ailerons were not the same as wing warping because their lawyers' could now argue that their patents covered ALL possible means of control not just those (wing warping) specifically mentioned.
I read the book "Birdmen" (https://www.amazon.com/Birdmen-Wright-Brothers-Curtiss-Control/dp/0345538056) a few years ago and it was just horrifying to see the progression of how bad the situation was. The Wrights literally wanted a 10 year monopoly on all aircraft production and saw absolutely no reason for anyone to consider this was not a 'reasonable' payback for their research and development efforts. They went as far as having all the aeronautical organizations they themselves had used to conduct that research SHUT DOWN to avoid "patent theft" including bringing Chanute, who had been a supporter but wished for more data sharing, under suite to shut down his newsletter.
And for those who might wonder where this came from keep in mind that rocketman Robert Goddard was cut from the same mold...
Randy
Thanks for the link, and you're right we shouldn't make the assumption that the "Wrights" would have been 'right' first. But as everyone knows OTL is just a USA-wank so the ONLY way we could delay heavier than air flight is if the Wrights are wrong...
Seriously, we've actually gotten way off topic anyway as the Wright-Curtis feud only really affected US aviation progress and the fact the world moved on without us pretty much underlines the point it was "time" for it to happen anyway.
Randy
marathag
Banned
But when the Wrights did fly, they really impressed Henri Farman with the control they had on their aircraft, being the first European to do a complete circle in the air in 1907.
Legally, the Wright could have slowed things in the US, but that's OTL.
Europe jumped ahead, in part to the Wrights legal shenanigans by WWI