Could Stanisław II August have been successful?

[Makemakean]

Stanisław II August Pontiatowski, the last King of Poland, seems to have been a rather tragic figure in history. Though said to be elected in Catherine the Great's bed (he was indeed her lover for a time), he also seems to have had a sincere desire to reform Poland and re-establishing it as a sovereign European power. These grand designs all failed and at the end of the day, he had to suffer the Second and Third partitions of Poland, which ultimately erased his country from the map until it was re-established at Versailles more than a hundred years later.

So, why did he fail? Could he have succeeded? If so, then what butterflies would be necessary?

 

[seraphim74]

Personally I have a lot of sympathy towards Stanisław August. He war. IMO, better than an average player, but he had to compete with equal or better players working together, who laso had much better cards than he had.
Stanisław August had several problems.
1. Conservatives - part of magnates (with thousands of client-nobles) and nobles, who were quite happy with status quo - weak central government, poor law (and poorly enforced too), their own interests above all. Another part of the conservaties, ultracatholics, were extremely unhappy with PLC being practically Russian protectorate and equal rights being given to non-catholics (protestant and orthodox christians). They, quite correctly, saw Stanisław Augusat as pro-Russian puppet. Problem was that at the time only a pro-Russian could have been the king, and Stanisław August played his own game which required temporary obedience to Russia to gain time to modernize country. Anyway, the conservative uprising (Bar Confederaton) failed, and was used as a pretext for the 1st parition of PLC.
2. Progressives. Generally king's allies, but often they wanted to change things as quickly as possible; sometimes they were right, sometimes perhaps not, sometimes the changes they wanted were not the best choice. For some of the progressives the king was too cautious and conservative.
2. Neighbours. Russia was quite happy with status quo and didn't want to change it. Russian ambassador in Warsaw was extremly influential, and had many of Polish politicians in his pocket; they were getting paid for voting as Russia wanted (which, with the liberum veto, meant Russia controlled Polish parliament). Prussia was very much interested in connecting two parts of the kingdom (East Prussia and Brandenburg) separated by rich Pomerelia wih Gdańsk/Danzig. Stronger PLC was the last thing Prussia wanted. Austria was less hostile, IMO, but not above taking some of Polish lands if an opportunity happened.

I do not know if Stanisław August had a real chance of success. IMO the best way to help him wopuld be to break the alliance of the Three Black Eagles (Austria, Russia and Prussia) and make them turn against each other or at least make them busy with something else. Eliminating Russia's influence (like a civil war between Paul III and his wife, or something like that) would be very helpful; a new war between Austria and Prussia for Silesia? I believe that without external intervention PLC had a decent chence to return to international politics as an independent player; the king and the progressives were strong enough to deal with local conservatives on their own. It wouldn't have been perfect, but it might have worked.
I also wonder about influence of the French Revolution on PLC's situation It was a terrible shock to the absolutist monarchs of Europe, and the moment they heard about Poland making steps in the same direction (i.e. creatng a constitutional monarchy) in what they considered they own backyard, they intervened to stop it.

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

Prussia was very much interested in connecting two parts of the kingdom (East Prussia and Brandenburg) separated by rich Pomerelia wih Gdańsk/Danzig. Stronger PLC was the last thing Prussia wanted. Austria was less hostile, IMO, but not above taking some of Polish lands if an opportunity happened.

I do not know if Stanisław August had a real chance of success. IMO the best way to help him wopuld be to break the alliance of the Three Black Eagles (Austria, Russia and Prussia) and make them turn against each other or at least make them busy with something else. Eliminating Russia's influence (like a civil war between Paul III and his wife, or something like that) would be very helpful; a new war between Austria and Prussia for Silesia? I believe that without external intervention PLC had a decent chence to return to international politics as an independent player; the king and the progressives were strong enough to deal with local conservatives on their own. It wouldn't have been perfect, but it might have worked.
I also wonder about influence of the French Revolution on PLC's situation It was a terrible shock to the absolutist monarchs of Europe, and the moment they heard about Poland making steps in the same direction (i.e. creatng a constitutional monarchy) in what they considered they own backyard, they intervened to stop it.

I agree that the three black eagles need to be stopped, along with the French revolutionary scare. I was always curious on what the effects would be of a French victory in the 7 years war.

Not only might it butterfly or delay the French revolution, giving Stanislaw more time to work and not scaring the neighbours too much, but also knocking Prussia down a few pegs and killing off Frederick the Great.

I might have read it here on AH.com, but someone mentioned that the Russians were planning on annexing East Prussia and handing it off to Poland in exchange for annexing Courland. If they did that, and Austria took back Silesia, then Prussia might be in no mood to start the partitions.

 

[dreadnought jenkins]

Actually, yah, why not avoid the Miracle of the house of Brandenburg?

Have Empress Elizabeth live longer to see the war through to the end and have her annex East Prussia. That was planned. Austria regains Silesia and Prussia is crippled and Frederick the Great has committed suicide.

Then Elizabeth dies and Peter III still plans something seen as disastrous and gets himself assassinated. Thus Catherine is about to help Stanislaw get elected.

He will still have to deal with Russia which is a tall order, but without Prussia to propose a partition, the fist one might not happen and Catherine will reaffirm her control over Poland. However a weakened Prussia and a strengthened Russia might see Austria be more concerned, and willing to support Stanislaw in his reforms.

It doesn't ensure his success, but having just regained Silesia, Austria will probably not want to see Prussia strengthen itself by taking Polish territory. That could seem like a prelude to another go at invading Silesia.

 

[RosoMC]

My knowledge of that era is patchy, but I would gladly read a well-researched and written timeline on that subject. PLC survives and reforms, count me in? Perhaps some more Enlightment ideas tested as well?

Although I have to say, that there seems to be a lot of factors to be taken into consideration. The previous American War of Independence would also send some aftershocks, especially considering the fact that it directly challenged the ruling establishment and in many ways it affected the French Revolution later on.