Could Poland survive with late 18th century PoD

[Hawkeye]

A long time ago someone commented on a map-art that I made that asked me why I hated Poland so much. Which stuck with me because I didn't have any strong feelings towards Poland but looking back to the gallery I made it did seem that Poland always get the short end of the stick. I chalked this up at the time to being due to the fact that I had a tendency focus on PoDs in the late 18th through 19th centuries while also having Russia and Germany growing more powerful than OTL. So Poland was often a casualty in those old short stories of mine. I told myself that one day I would change this and give Poland a fair chance.

But looking into its history from around the time Poniatowski was elected king, was there any real chance that the commonwealth could reform and survive as a sovereign power into the 19th century? Because being between Frederick II Prussia and Catherine's Russia, on top of the broken political system it had and being a Russian puppet at this point, I just can't see a way for the commonwealth to turn things around from this point. Does anyone with more experience with Polish history have any thoughts on this?

 

[rfmcdonald]

I think that if you had somehow ended Prussia's.riee, most obviously by getting it defeated and divided in the Seven Years War, that would relieve a lot of pressure.

 

[Snaut]

Definitely. The partitions were not pre-planned. They were the result of Russia reacting to reforms and/or anti-Russian unrest and realizing that the Commonwealth was hard to control. The 1791 constitution was particularly disturbing (from the Russian POV of course) because it showed that Poland-Lithuania had the ability to competently reform itself despite indirect Russian and Prussian influence. And a fairly large, well organized country with a grudge was the last thing Russia (or Prussia for that matter) wanted to have nearby. A PoD as late as 1790 or so delaying the constitution, or the armed Russian response, could lead to interesting results. I'd suggest that even as late as 1793, after the second partition, there was nothing that ensured a third partition very soon. If Russia delays its plans for a few years some reason or other a small rump Commonwealth might persist until France suddenly emerges as a significant force in central Europe.

 

[Hawkeye]

Definitely. The partitions were not pre-planned. They were the result of Russia reacting to reforms and/or anti-Russian unrest and realizing that the Commonwealth was hard to control. The 1791 constitution was particularly disturbing (from the Russian POV of course) because it showed that Poland-Lithuania had the ability to competently reform itself despite indirect Russian and Prussian influence. And a fairly large, well organized country with a grudge was the last thing Russia (or Prussia for that matter) wanted to have nearby. A PoD as late as 1790 or so delaying the constitution, or the armed Russian response, could lead to interesting results. I'd suggest that even as late as 1793, after the second partition, there was nothing that ensured a third partition very soon. If Russia delays its plans for a few years some reason or other a small rump Commonwealth might persist until France suddenly emerges as a significant force in central Europe.

But I thought the partitions were the result of Frederick not wanting to get dragged into a war with Austria on Russia's behalf?

 

[Snaut]

But I thought the partitions were the result of Frederick not wanting to get dragged into a war with Austria on Russia's behalf?

Frederick II's wishes would have meant little if Russia had wanted to keep its protectorate intact.

 

[Hawkeye]

Frederick II's wishes would have meant little if Russia had wanted to keep its protectorate intact.

But Poland was constantly rebelling and Catherine's puppet was less than reliable. I honestly think the protectorate was more trouble for Russia than what it was worth.

 

[jenalysis]

Another PoD, Poland's Sejm is more Russian-influenced and pro-Russia , then Nappy removes that influence during Napoleonic Wars, independent Poland turns on Nappy in 1813? (Have Poniatowski go full Bernadotte?)

 

[Snaut]

But Poland was constantly rebelling and Catherine's puppet was less than reliable. I honestly think the protectorate was more trouble for Russia than what it was worth.

And this is what the Russians themselves began to think around 1770, and especially after 1791. They were probably correct, but their mistake was to assume that if you annex your problem it will go away instead of undermining you from inside.

 

[Michael Reign]

Creating a scenario where Poland can survive to 19th century, much less the 20th is an incredibly uphill battle. By the late 18th Century the other major powers already considered Poland expendable in their machinations, and Poland sits right smack dab between the two fastest growing militant powers in Europe hell-bent on making themselves premier empires. Poland's only chance by the late 18th century is to 'ride the knife' and use a crisis in one state as leverage other states to leave it alone and look elsewhere.
To that end, Poland's best chance to avoid being partitioned to death would be if Catherine is out of the picture. Maybe a Pugachev revolt sympathizer, or a Potemkin rival frame job/jealous spat. Perhaps even using an Austrian agent to 'coddle the would be Czar' and secretly support Pugachev only to have that plan backfire. Assuming Poland has modivated leadership in 1774-1776 (and I admit I have not read into that at this time) the chaos of Boyar politics should give Poland enough wiggle room to shake off Russia. Stretch it out long enough and a well timed Polish Envoy to Paris (sent to keep Prussia from devouring Poland) meets a charismatic Ben Franklin and the American Revolution offers a potential for a 2nd Seven Years War.
Having said that, I have absolutely no idea of how to keep Poland alive through Nepoleon short of 'vassal state' until the Russia Campaign, then rebelling.

 

[holycookie]

I think apart from an intense 17th century reform in Poland (against the nobility) the biggest factor would be France which had a long positive history with Poland. A France that has partially won the Italian wars (union with Milan) or won its dispute against Portugal for control of Brazil (getting the colony that produced the most gold in the Americas) has the money and power to keep Poland safe until the reforms are finished. Or make the idea of partition cause a war so big that Prussia (in particular) and Russia prefer not to risk it.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Survive? Sure, not upsetting the arrangement where Poland remains an appendix of the Russian Empire would keep Poland-Lithuania on the map.

Making Poland into great power once more is another matter.

 

[Grey Wolf]

What if Cumberland was killed at Fontenoy? The knock-ons for Britain would be a much harder to suppress Jacobite Rebellion, and a much less influential Britain in the peace that ended the Austrian War of Succession. If a Bavarian succession is agreed, or even if Maria Theresa is allowed to rule Austria only, for life, but not as Empress, then a different set of circumstances for central Europe would obtain into the 1750s.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

As a fully independent power? No.

As a puppet state or at best a neutral buffer zone between two other states? Sure, why not.

 

[Hawkeye]

To that end, Poland's best chance to avoid being partitioned to death would be if Catherine is out of the picture.

I did consider making a thread about Catherine dying from the smallpox vaccine in 1768.
Fredrich could also be killed off early since he wasn't particularly healthy and his successor wasn't as capable as he was in OTL.

 

[piratedude]

Another PoD, Poland's Sejm is more Russian-influenced and pro-Russia , then Nappy removes that influence during Napoleonic Wars, independent Poland turns on Nappy in 1813? (Have Poniatowski go full Bernadotte?)

I think this is probably the most viable option. The Polish populace, and especially the more liberal minded elites, would welcome the French freeing them from a Russian yoke, getting the liberal constitution they've been wanting, and could quickly sour at going from being Russia's puppet to Napoleon's

 

[Alex Zetsu]

I'm a bit curious to a PLC surviving with its first partition boarders. One weak enough for the first one wouldn't be strong enough to resist Prussia. Austria makes some sense as an ally as they have the least to gain economically in the next two portions, but given that Maria Theresa approved of the first partition, I find it implausible that the Poles could trust her.

 

[Andristan]

I seem to recall that MT was very hesitant to participate in the partitions and did so only due to the urging of her advisors, mostly to oppose Prussia getting stronger without an concomitant increase for the Habsburgs. I would think that if Frederick lost a Silesian war, 1, 2 or 3, then the Partitions would not go through, as I understand them to be his original idea, that the Russians agreed to, thinking it would help solve their own issues with P-L. So having him die, maybe at an alt-Kunersdorf would leave Poland in a better position to maybe make it to the 19th century.