Could Poland Be Saved?

[Snaut]

If Czechoslovakia had not fallen, and the Soviet Union not invaded from the East, the yes, it would have been possibld. The Poles would have had a shorter front with defend, and the Germans would have not have had the Czech tanks to bolster their invasion force.

I feel that the extra border Poland had to protect as a result of the fall of Czechoslovakia tends to be somewhat overrated. It isn't that long in comparison to the tremendously long border already in existence, and is mountainous. There's a reason why relatively few Axis forces attacked there.

At worst the Poles could have held out long enough for France to launch a more threatening counter-offensive in the West, causing the Germans to redeploy forces from Poland.

At best.

 

[Glenn239]

The key to saving Poland is actually Belgium. As long as Belgium stays neutral, they do two things for Germany. First, they shield most of the potential front lines for the Germans. Second, they make a deep Allied attack on the remainder of the front very risky.

The French nightmare scenario in Sept 1939 was that the Germans would respond to a French attack into the Saar by wheeling through Belgium while the best of the French army was tied up in the Saar offensive.

If you want Poland to survive, you really need a different king in Belgium...

All you have to do is get Hitler to blink, and for that the French have to be in a position to threaten a move through Belgium with or without the King's permission.

(1) The Allies must mobilize starting in July 1939, matching the German mobilization such that the French army is ready to attack all along the front on 3 September.
(2) The Allies have to be deployed facing Belgium in strength. Get a League of Nations majority vote mandating that Belgium must allow an Allied offensive to defend Poland, and let the Germans know that the Allies are coming even given the Belgian protests.

With any luck, Hitler chickens out and Poland is 'saved' without a shot fired.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

Is there any scenario in which France and England...

ITYM France and Britain.

declare war on Germany and Poland can be saved? Could the BEF and French Army accomplish something like that? And could it be done even if Russia invades Poland from the east?

The Western Allies were in no position to do anything significant against Germany in 1939. France was only partially mobilized (and well behind Germany). The claim that Germany was defenseless in the west in September 1939 has been exploded; there were enough German divisions in the west to man the fortifications on the French border in strength.

The French army did not have the massive superiority in numbers required to smash through the German forces facing west, and that's before considering the weaknesses of French doctrine, organization, and equipment.

The French plan (such as it was) called for nothing much to be done until the entire army was mobilized and deployed on the border, sometime in late October. It was expected that most of the German army would still be tied down in Poland. Then and only then would the French attack.

But by mid-September, Poland was broken, leaving only a mopping-up. German troops were pouring into the west. The French abandoned any thoughts of attacking. By the time the French were fully mobilized, Poland was finished and the whole German arny had gone west. There was no longer any opportunity for an attack (if there ever had been).

As to the British army - Britain had only a modest (but high-quality) force to contribute to the campaign, and it wasn't deployed in France till after Poland was lost.

 

[JimmyJimJam]

ITYM France and Britain.



The Western Allies were in no position to do anything significant against Germany in 1939. France was only partially mobilized (and well behind Germany). The claim that Germany was defenseless in the west in September 1939 has been exploded; there were enough German divisions in the west to man the fortifications on the French border in strength.

Source? For either claim, I mean.

 

[ivanotter]

Position in the West was a gamble.

Although France had 100 divisions, 30+ were tied up in the Maginot line.

Britain could at most deploy 5 infantry divisions and one armour according to Shirer.

That said, the German generals regarded the West Wall as more of a construction site than effective shield.

But let it also be down to Hitler's reading of the situation.

Churchill pointed out that without USSR there could be no hope for Poland. Chamberlain was determined not to invite USSR into any meaningful debate as can be seen from the people he sent to Moscow to negotiate a pact (Strang, Drax).

I do believe Poland was doomed right from the start:

1) Incorporating parts of Ukraine into Poland just caused USSR to seriously looking at rectifying the borders
2) The 1920 war with USSR did not improve relations
3) The corridor was waiting to be explored politically for a settlement

Poland showed itself as another greedy small nation in Czech, grabbing land

The mitigating factor is that Poland did not allow Soviet forces on its territory - they probably would never have left -

But then the doomed themselves to German aggression

Now, enough facts:

How to save Poland?
It has to be a different Versailles.

The borders will have to be different.

No 1920 war

I am blank on such a scenario

Ivan

 

[Tizoc]

Position in the West was a gamble.

Although France had 100 divisions, 30+ were tied up in the Maginot line.

I recall France having 70-80 divisions in Sept. 39. But 30+ tied in Maginot? Source, please.

Churchill pointed out that without USSR there could be no hope for Poland. Chamberlain was determined not to invite USSR into any meaningful debate as can be seen from the people he sent to Moscow to negotiate a pact (Strang, Drax).

There was no hope for Poland with USSR as well.

I do believe Poland was doomed right from the start:

1) Incorporating parts of Ukraine into Poland just caused USSR to seriously looking at rectifying the borders

2) The 1920 war with USSR did not improve relations

The Polish-Soviet War, you mean. Which started in 1919. And of which the Soviets are at least as much to blame as Poles. You forgot Soviets planned to reach Germany to spread revolution. And what country was in the way?

3) The corridor was waiting to be explored politically for a settlement

Access to the sea was necessary for economic independence of Poland. Without so-called Corridor Poland would be an economic colony of Germany.

How to save Poland?
It has to be a different Versailles.

You don't need a different treaty. It was the enforcement that sucked.

The borders will have to be different.

Secondary issue. I doubt that different borders would really change that much.

No 1920 war

You need an early 1919 settlement between Soviets and Poland to prevent Polish-Soviet War.

 

[RainbowDoubleDash]

One week before the invasion, Hitler gets hit by a car and put in a coma.

(Why coma? For some reason I think that would be worse for the Nazi regime than Hitler just plain dying).

The car was driven by a British spy. Bonus points if it was Christopher Lee or Ian Flemming.

Ta-daaa~!

No, seriously, though, that's the only thing I can think of. Well, I suppose the car doesn't have to be driven by a British spy; hopefully it was just some dude. Point being that you need to take Hitler out of the equation.

 

[Remicas]

If I remember well a book about 1940, 20 divisions was on the Maginot, 20 others along the Italian border (which is also fortified heavily, and part of Maginot), and 40 divisions more or less ready to rush into Belgium. But I could be wrong on the numbers.

Anyway, any sufficiently large offensive into the Rhineland would be a death blow to Germany, especially if most of its armies is tied down in Poland. Even if they manage to disengage their forces and throw them to the west, the Rhur would be a battlezone. Hard to maintain their war economy if their principal industrial zone is a battlefield.