Could fascism survive to the present without WW2?

A fascism That adheres to the principles of the 1919 manifesto can survive:

The Manifesto (published in Il Popolo d'Italia on June 6, 1919) is divided into four sections, describing the movement's objectives in political, social, military and financial fields.[2]

Politically, the Manifesto calls for:

Universal suffrage with a lowered voting age to 18 years, and voting and electoral office eligibility for all ages 25 and up;
Proportional representation on a regional basis;
Voting for women;
Representation at government level of newly created national councils by economic sector;
The abolition of the Italian Senate (at the time, the Senate, as the upper house of parliament, was by process elected by the wealthier citizens, but were in reality direct appointments by the king. It has been described as a sort of extended council of the crown);
The formation of a national council of experts for labor, for industry, for transportation, for the public health, for communications, etc. Selections to be made of professionals or of tradesmen with legislative powers, and elected directly to a general commission with ministerial powers.
In labor and social policy, the Manifesto calls for:

The quick enactment of a law of the state that sanctions an eight-hour workday for all workers;
A minimum wage;
The participation of workers' representatives in the functions of industry commissions;
To show the same confidence in the labor unions (that prove to be technically and morally worthy) as is given to industry executives or public servants;
Reorganization of the railways and the public transport sector;
Revision of the draft law on invalidity insurance;
Reduction of the retirement age from 65 to 55.
In military affairs, the Manifesto advocates:

Creation of a short-service national militia with specifically defensive responsibilities;
Armaments factories are to be nationalized;
A peaceful but competitive foreign policy.
In finance, the Manifesto advocates:

A strong extraordinary tax on capital of a progressive nature, which takes the form of true partial expropriation of all wealth;
The seizure of all the possessions of the religious congregations and the abolition of all the bishoprics, which constitute an enormous liability on the Nation and on the privileges of the poor;
Revision of all contracts for military provisions;
The revision of all military contracts and the seizure of 85 percent of the profits therein.
Of all the fascist regimes (comparing the phalanx or franc to Italian fascism in my opinion is nonsense) The Italian has the best chance of surviving due to a more developed intellectuality and an non-extreme attachment to the race like Germans, The "fascism" of primo de Rivera is unknown since he did not take power and Franco, after the second war, dismissed the Falangists.
 
I don't understand why here are saying that Italian fascism would die with the loss of Ethiopia, even though Italy lost the second war and Mussolini was executed, Fascism continued to maintain a minimum of popularity in italian society, in a world without a WW2 war, even with the loss of Ethiopia the Italian fascist party would at least be a Considerable opposition party.
 
A fascism That adheres to the principles of the 1919 manifesto can survive:

The Manifesto (published in Il Popolo d'Italia on June 6, 1919) is divided into four sections, describing the movement's objectives in political, social, military and financial fields.[2]

Politically, the Manifesto calls for:

Universal suffrage with a lowered voting age to 18 years, and voting and electoral office eligibility for all ages 25 and up;
Proportional representation on a regional basis;
Voting for women;
Representation at government level of newly created national councils by economic sector;
The abolition of the Italian Senate (at the time, the Senate, as the upper house of parliament, was by process elected by the wealthier citizens, but were in reality direct appointments by the king. It has been described as a sort of extended council of the crown);
The formation of a national council of experts for labor, for industry, for transportation, for the public health, for communications, etc. Selections to be made of professionals or of tradesmen with legislative powers, and elected directly to a general commission with ministerial powers.
In labor and social policy, the Manifesto calls for:

The quick enactment of a law of the state that sanctions an eight-hour workday for all workers;
A minimum wage;
The participation of workers' representatives in the functions of industry commissions;
To show the same confidence in the labor unions (that prove to be technically and morally worthy) as is given to industry executives or public servants;
Reorganization of the railways and the public transport sector;
Revision of the draft law on invalidity insurance;
Reduction of the retirement age from 65 to 55.
In military affairs, the Manifesto advocates:

Creation of a short-service national militia with specifically defensive responsibilities;
Armaments factories are to be nationalized;
A peaceful but competitive foreign policy.
In finance, the Manifesto advocates:

A strong extraordinary tax on capital of a progressive nature, which takes the form of true partial expropriation of all wealth;
The seizure of all the possessions of the religious congregations and the abolition of all the bishoprics, which constitute an enormous liability on the Nation and on the privileges of the poor;
Revision of all contracts for military provisions;
The revision of all military contracts and the seizure of 85 percent of the profits therein.
This sounds like a bad Idea in a deeply religious country.
 
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Portugal might be able to keep that if they play things right but I doubt that. Probably they just make same mistakes and stupidities than in OTL. And Italy has not way to keep Ethiopia. It is almost same if France would try keep Indochina much longer.
Also only 1/5th of the Italian forces in East Africa were Italian. The Somalians, Eritreans, and Ethiopian minorities provided the overwhelming bulk of the personnel for the occupation. If that continues, then the counter insurgency is unlikely to create the sort of domestic unrest in metropolitan Italy that the Colonial War caused Portugal, the Algerian War caused France, and the Vietnam War caused America.
I definitely see Ethiopia regaining their independence though. They’d try to cling to their colonies and it would be bloody.

I think everyone here is forgetting that the wars in Algeria and Vietnam (the French and American ones) were fought by democracies, and also forget the kind of war Fascist Italy fought against both the Libyan rebels and Ethiopians themselves. In the former three wars the citizens of France and the US had enough freedom of expression to signal their opposition to the wars their nation was involved in, and frequently took that opportunity, sometimes in increasingly illegal ways (ex: American college students burning their draft cards and firebombing ROTC centers). There's zero way Mussolini would tolerate the same level of dissent. Secondly it's worth remembering Mussolini had his own system of concentration camps and drenched Ethiopia with chemical weapons. Despite the brutality visited in Algeria and Vietnam, neither the French or US were willing to go that far to win their respective wars.

This is also keeping in mind we're not even mentioning what Mussolini was willing to do during WWII, both before and after 1943. We have to seriously ask if there would be an Ethiopian population that survives a serious war of resistance against a longer living Fascist Italy.

Add in a breakdown of relations between the Allies and Italy's bloc and you have a recipe for blackshirt rebels in Africa and Asia.

Don't forget South and Central America either. There were a number of figures in both regions broadly sympathetic to or willing to work with fascists both before and after WWII, some of whom openly admired Mussolini (like Juan Peron).

Without the Soviets in their OTL position, there are more reasons to focus on Fascist regimes.

Without Nazi Germany invading the USSR the Soviets are going to be in a stronger position than OTL by virtue of not having 27+ million of its population killed. Depending on how the inter-war period goes we could actually see a Red Alert type scenario where its the USSR who serves as the main threat to European security through the 30's and 40's.
 
I think everyone here is forgetting that the wars in Algeria and Vietnam (the French and American ones) were fought by democracies, and also forget the kind of war Fascist Italy fought against both the Libyan rebels and Ethiopians themselves. In the former three wars the citizens of France and the US had enough freedom of expression to signal their opposition to the wars their nation was involved in, and frequently took that opportunity, sometimes in increasingly illegal ways (ex: American college students burning their draft cards and firebombing ROTC centers). There's zero way Mussolini would tolerate the same level of dissent. Secondly it's worth remembering Mussolini had his own system of concentration camps and drenched Ethiopia with chemical weapons. Despite the brutality visited in Algeria and Vietnam, neither the French or US were willing to go that far to win their respective wars.

This is also keeping in mind we're not even mentioning what Mussolini was willing to do during WWII, both before and after 1943. We have to seriously ask if there would be an Ethiopian population that survives a serious war of resistance against a longer living Fascist Italy.

Don't forget South and Central America either. There were a number of figures in both regions broadly sympathetic to or willing to work with fascists both before and after WWII, some of whom openly admired Mussolini (like Juan Peron).

Without Nazi Germany invading the USSR the Soviets are going to be in a stronger position than OTL by virtue of not having 27+ million of its population killed. Depending on how the inter-war period goes we could actually see a Red Alert type scenario where its the USSR who serves as the main threat to European security through the 30's and 40's.
Mussolini never had any intention of genocide in Ethiopia. I think they’d give it up, because it’s not worth holding. It might not happen under Mussolini. I just can’t see it being viewed as a net benefit to try and hold on to Ethiopia.
 
Mussolini never had any intention of genocide in Ethiopia.

I'd argue his actions constituted genocide. Regardless, who's to say he wouldn't become more vicious if in 1950 the country is crawling with guerillas? Can you really say with certainty he wouldn't crack out chemical weapons again if he felt that the Ethiopians were getting the better of him?
 
Not in the long term, it's a command economy, and command economies are doomed to fail.

That Mussolini had strong grap on economy not mean that his successor/s couldn't change that like Deng did in China. Fascims has not too ideologically such will to control whole economy. It probably would be easier to make some reforms than with communist nations.
 
I'd argue his actions constituted genocide. Regardless, who's to say he wouldn't become more vicious if in 1950 the country is crawling with guerillas? Can you really say with certainty he wouldn't crack out chemical weapons again if he felt that the Ethiopians were getting the better of him?
I’m sure he would commit atrocities. I don’t think he’d try to wipe the Ethiopians out entirely.
 
I’m sure he would commit atrocities. I don’t think he’d try to wipe the Ethiopians out entirely.

Agree. Mussolini wasn't such genocidal person as Hitler. He was very brutal and ruthless but still not genocidal enough to wipe whole nation from the map. And it would be impractical to wipe cheap labor anyway. Even Mussolini would understand that.
 
Agree. Mussolini wasn't such genocidal person as Hitler. He was very brutal and ruthless but still not genocidal enough to wipe whole nation from the map.
Not on the same scale as Hitler, but iirc he did plan to ethnically cleanse the western half of Slovenia. He also did perform localized ethnic cleansing in Libya to free up land for Italian colonists. I could totally see him act to remove Amhara from the majority non-Amharic parts of Ethiopia to break cultural continuity with the former Ethiopian Empire.
 
Not on the same scale as Hitler, but iirc he did plan to ethnically cleanse the western half of Slovenia. He also did perform localized ethnic cleansing in Libya to free up land for Italian colonists. I could totally see him act to remove Amhara from the majority non-Amharic parts of Ethiopia to break cultural continuity with the former Ethiopian Empire.
Killing a bunch of colonized people doesn't seem to me like something exclusive to fascist regimes.
 
Honestly all this talk about Mussolini slaughtering the population to keep Ethiopia under control and I can only think of the already non excellent Italian economy straining under such a forever war and the British and French armies "losing" equipment near the borders of their colonies with Ethiopia, the Italians also finding out that the Suez is suddenly closed for "security reasons"
 
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