Cortes is killed fighting the Aztecs

[Alan]

While engaged in the conquest of Tenochtitlan, the Aztec capital, or maybe much earlier, Cortes is killed in battle. The Conquistador Army and its assortment of native allies, bereft of strong leadership, disintegrates. The Spanish leave America.

The Aztecs have a respite. They will presumably still be afflicted by a devastating smallpox epidemic, but would they be able to assimilate the lessons learned from meeting the Spanish in time for the next invasion. The Aztecs were people of considerable technical ingenuity, but how well would they be able to utilise the reprieve to prepare?

 

[LNSS]

Depends on Spain. Seeing how Cortez didn't come back, they might be much more cautious in sendintg more men to the heartland of Mexico, and I can't see them sending thousands of men overseas towards the unknown for myths about golden cities - remember Cortez was a tiny expedition going against direct orders from their superiors.

The Spanish are mostly going to limit themselves to trading posts in Veracruz. They'll get gold and gems, in exchange for gunpowder and horses. Then the nahua people might develop independently some more time, though they'd end up vassalized most probably.

Best case scenario, Mexico becomes and independent indigenous kingdom vassal to the spanish crown.

 

[Advernt]

Actually, the last time this was discussed, I believe that the consensus winded up being that the Aztecs are as doomed as the Missisipian civilization of Mound Builders.

The main reason for this are diseases imported from Eurasia. Even without any Spanish occupation, Eurasian diseases are likely to take at least a 70% toll on the population of any Native American peoples. Odds are, the whole Nahauan and Meso-american civilization would collapse from extreme depopulation within a century. By the time the next cautious expeditions, either by the French or the English, Spanish or even Dutch venture into Meso-america a century later, odds are, they would find emptied ruins where previous tales claimed mighty empires stood. The Native Americans have no immunity against Eurasian diseases - some estimates claim that the transfer of Eurasian diseases to America wiped out 90% of Native Americans over the next century to two.

The best case scenario is not vassalized Aztecs. The best case scenario...... there's no best case scenario.

 

[jayel]

Once the gold and silver started going back to Spain the race of conquest was on

 

[LNSS]

I don't think it would be that apocalyptic, IOTL with the spanish conquests AND the diseases, a substantial nauha population remained and continued to exist.

 

[Advernt]

I don't think it would be that apocalyptic, IOTL with the spanish conquests AND the diseases, a substantial nauha population remained and continued to exist.

Yes, but can the Aztec state, which is hardly a state, and more of a tributary system of organized mass sacrifices actually survive with the loss of 70% of the population, if not more?

There are some Nauhas. They are not the majority. Far from it. This is the catch.

 

[LNSS]

The Aztec state probably not, but who's to say that with the trading going on, another city-state could not come to dominate central Mexico in a more cohesive manner. Of course, it's still going to end in vassalization to an european power, but potentially with different consequences than the conquest IOTL - more like the British with India.

 

[Advernt]

Well, if we want to take the Butterfly effect seriously, minus Mesoamerican and Andean gold, we might end up with an Ottoman Austria, and perhaps Italy because the Hapsburgs lack the funds to fight both the reformation and the Turks simultaneously.

Now, would anyone like to pose a detailed counterargument to that? Of course, it rest upon the assumption that the the Hapsburgs were able to block the Ottomans from advancing further into Europe, because of the financial means that New World Gold gave them.

 

[Sian]

Hapsburg would probably look at the financial sheet and decide that they can only fight one of them, and since the reformation still is a kind of Christianity, they are the lesser evil

 

[jycee]

As already mentioned the Aztec State, or more accurately The Triple Alliance is doomed, conquest or no conquest. Diseases and European intervention (which would happen even without conquest) will tear it appart.

But the vassalization of certain city states in the region is still very likely. Most likely the Tlaxcaltecs, now allied with the Spanish and supplied with Spanish horses and weapons would rise to dominate the region for a brief period of time. Tzintzuntzan might survive as an independent rival state for a brief period as well.

Ultimately diseases will still take their toll in the population numbers, and once silver starts pouring into Spain and Europe intervention will likely result in occupation and ultimately conquest. But a late conquest can result in Nahua culture surviving in Central Mexico to a certain degree (it will obviously be affected by continuous contact with Europe).

More interestingly though is that this might lead to a lesser/later involvement in South America as well. The Incas in general are much better set to survive as a unified state than any Nahua city. That is if they can keep up with the changing world and in charge of their own silver.

 

[Malta]

Plus Inca Butterflies.

 

[Vault boy]

This would first butterfly Pizarro's Bizarre Adventure in the Incan Empire. And the Spaniards will be way more cautious of these kinds of adventures.

However, after a while, the colonization of this *Mexico will start through the shores of the Gulf, and it will resemble more like what the French did in Québec back during its colonial days.