"Copenhagen" in Germany, ca. 1909

[sikitu]

There are references in the literature according to which Lord Fisher proposed a "copenhagen-style" attack on the German HSF. Now, leaving aside any discussion about (im)probability of this, WI the RN had actually made such a move in say 1909.

Germany yet did not have any operational dreadnoughts or battlecruisers. The RN at least had Dreadnought and Invincible, and a large numerical superiority.

So let us assume that they succeed. What would be the political and military implications in Europe and abroad?

 

[jolo]

There are references in the literature according to which Lord Fisher proposed a "copenhagen-style" attack on the German HSF. Now, leaving aside any discussion about (im)probability of this, WI the RN had actually made such a move in say 1909.

Germany yet did not have any operational dreadnoughts or battlecruisers. The RN at least had Dreadnought and Invincible, and a large numerical superiority.

So let us assume that they succeed. What would be the political and military implications in Europe and abroad?

I believe they wouldn't do it just because of a competition in building ships. They would risk too much bad press internationally - and Germany (and her allies) could use all the dirty tricks they had difficulties using in WWI without reprisals - like unrestriced uboat warfare and the likes.

Also, it's nearly impossible to engage the German fleet close to Germany, thanks to a channel between the baltic and the north sea.

The only longterm change might be that battleships would be considered obsolete 40 years earlier.

 

[sikitu]

Well, if you make a surprise attack (say Port Arthur style), you should be able to disable most ships, especially if they are not battle-ready. Usually, while in port, the ships will not have closed the water-tight doors, and might even lack ammo (as for the latter point, I am not sure about HSF standard procedures in peacetime, but would assume this to be the case).

I agree that the waters of the German North Sea are difficult, but it might be done. What about the following:

a) Task forces mainly consisting of light torpedo boats and cruisers make sneak attacks at Wilhelmshaven and Kiel, and probably Helgoland. They are covered by heavy units, just in case.
b) Royal marines make night landings in the respective ports, as well as maybe Danzig, Hamburg and Bremen, placing charges to destroy ships under construction.

I could imagine that from a political perspective, the French (and maybe even the Russians) would not be that upset about such a move by the British...

 

[jolo]

If the Germans were intelligent, they'd answer with mass producing uboats, torpedo boats, zeppelines and so on, sinking a lot of the royal navy and merchant fleet over the next few years and draining the english of ressources and markets. If the war stays limited to sea and air engagements, Germany might even be the big winner in the long run. If the war moves to either territory, WWI will be a little bit earlier and even the likely winner, GB, will loose a lot of her super power status.

 

[Earling]

If the Germans are intelligent they will not fight a war wherin which they have absolutely no chance of success and will see their merchant marine gutted and their colonies consumed. U-Boats have no chance of breaking Britain in 1909 due to technological defficiencies. A Britain without the dreadought race would have significantly more resources to spend on potential anti-submarine weaponry and research.

If they are politically minded they will watch as the Liberal British Government collapses to most probably be replaced by a more isolationist, in terms of Europe, Conservative Government. A few quiet words about how Germany isn't really after Britain and after some mild recompense in the form of money and perhaps a hand in certain areas of Africa could go a long way. Point out how the French-Russian alliance is a far greater threat to British interests and how Germany is vital for retaining the balance of power on the continent. Ofcourse it is likely that the Kaiser in his Hamfisted way will destroy the negotiations achieving less than Germany could recieve and alienating the British further than is wise.

The rest of Europe is unlikely to do much more than what they did in OTL. Russia is in no position to launch a general war, France knows this and so is likewise. Austria-Hungary and Russia will squabble over the Balkans in the coming years.

Flash to 1910-14, Britain stays out of the War despite Belgium, Italy stays with the Central powers. Result is anyones guess, in the details anyway, but the resulting 20th century is significantly different.

 

[sikitu]

Thanks for the comments insofar. Do you think that Kaiser Wilhelm II would stay in power after such an event? What about Tirpitz?

I think that Germany would probably give up its naval ambitions because it has no choice, and would be looking for different allies.

Hmm, another idea, might the British want to take Helgoland back? With the HSF destroyed, nothing could prevent a blockade of Germany, and economic necessities would require Germany to accept any reasonable terms, such as naval restrictions and transfer of some overseas colonies.

 

[jolo]

If the Germans are intelligent they will not fight a war wherin which they have absolutely no chance of success and will see their merchant marine gutted and their colonies consumed. U-Boats have no chance of breaking Britain in 1909 due to technological defficiencies. A Britain without the dreadought race would have significantly more resources to spend on potential anti-submarine weaponry and research.

Flash to 1910-14, Britain stays out of the War despite Belgium, Italy stays with the Central powers. Result is anyones guess, in the details anyway, but the resulting 20th century is significantly different.

German uboats were pretty successful in OTL in WWI, even against battleships. Perhaps a little bit too much so. I'm also not talking about breaking the fleet - only weekening it, and the merchant fleet as well.

With a war just behind it, Germany IMO would not be very likely to start another one so soon. I only see possibilities of the war escalating along alliance lines, so that we have an earlier WWI, maybe with similar results.

 

[hunting_carl]

OT: ...okay back to work then?

 

[NHBL]

England blew it...

If Britian does something like that, they have a major problem. First of all, the Hague Treaties of 1907 are still fresh, and there was no imeadiate pressure of war to justify ignoring them as Britain did later on. It will likely be a long time before anyone trusts them to hoinor a treaty again. (Hague 3, 1907)
Second of all, Italy has no excuse to stay out of the war--Britian is a clear agressor.
Britian can likely win, stripping Germany of all her colonies-but everyone will be looking at Britian with a warry eye, wondering if they are next.

Even if the situation doesn't lead to a long war, I suspect that the Royal Navy will be keeping an eye on the Atlantic, as the USA steps up production of warships. Instead of a building race with Germany, they end up in a building race with the USA--and find out that there is a nation that can out build them.

 

[Dave Bender]

WWI 5 years early

A massive British naval attack on Germany would have the same effect as the massive Japanese naval attack at Pearl Harbor. Germany would declare war on Britain before the day was out. The world will be apalled at the British aggression, and no one will trust her for many years to come.

France and Russia will also be upset. However they may view this as their best chance to defeat Germany, and jump in on Britain's side. Alternately, they may sit on the sidelines and wait for Britain to be defeated. Then they can scoop up overseas British colonies.

Getting U.S. assistance for Britain would be very difficult in this scenerio. Unrestricted submarine warfare is a pretty minor thing compared to what Britain has just done. Most likely the U.S. remains neutral, but sympathizes with Germany.

Japan will scoop up Germany's Pacific colonies, as she did historically.

Italy will remain neutral initially. If offered a good enough deal, she could join either side.

 

[David S Poepoe]

Thanks for the comments insofar. Do you think that Kaiser Wilhelm II would stay in power after such an event? What about Tirpitz?

I think that Germany would probably give up its naval ambitions because it has no choice, and would be looking for different allies.

Quite to the contrary. Such an attack would strengthen Wilhelm II and Tirpitz's standing with the German people. The Naval Laws may be amended in order to strengthen and enlarge the German fleet.

Such an attack verifies that Germany does need a major surface fleet in order to protect German life and commerce.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

There are references in the literature according to which Lord Fisher proposed a "copenhagen-style" attack on the German HSF. Now, leaving aside any discussion about (im)probability of this, WI the RN had actually made such a move in say 1909.

Germany yet did not have any operational dreadnoughts or battlecruisers. The RN at least had Dreadnought and Invincible, and a large numerical superiority.

So let us assume that they succeed. What would be the political and military implications in Europe and abroad?

The problem is that such an attack would outrage the world, stengthen the hand of the navy lobby in Germany, and would probably lead to the diplomatic isolation of Britain.

Further, a port attack is likely to leave all the sunk ships salvageable with relatively little effort.

 

[NHBL]

Devious politicing...

Not only would the ships be salvagable, but there's another quirk that will play into Tirpitz's hands, if I'm remembering the naval laws correctly.
They called for a certain strength of force, and replacement of obsolete ships on a timetable. With the obsolete pre-dreadnoughts on the bottom, Tirpitz can call for their automatic replacement under existing laws. Sinking the pre-dreadnoughts, if war is somehow averted, or is short, did Tirpitz a favor. All he needs to do is claim the older ships are not salvagable...and get dreadnoughts for pre-dreadnoughts, battlecruisers for armored cruisers. (And yes, what the Royal Navy called battlecruisers, the High Seas Fleet classed as "large cruisers," so the replacement for a destroyed armored cruiser was indeed a battlecruiser.
Perhaps Britian pays an indemnity in the end, financing the new ships...

 

[David S Poepoe]

Not only would the ships be salvagable, but there's another quirk that will play into Tirpitz's hands, if I'm remembering the naval laws correctly.
They called for a certain strength of force, and replacement of obsolete ships on a timetable. With the obsolete pre-dreadnoughts on the bottom, Tirpitz can call for their automatic replacement under existing laws. Sinking the pre-dreadnoughts, if war is somehow averted, or is short, did Tirpitz a favor. All he needs to do is claim the older ships are not salvagable...and get dreadnoughts for pre-dreadnoughts, battlecruisers for armored cruisers. (And yes, what the Royal Navy called battlecruisers, the High Seas Fleet classed as "large cruisers," so the replacement for a destroyed armored cruiser was indeed a battlecruiser.
Perhaps Britian pays an indemnity in the end, financing the new ships...

You are right about the Naval Laws and the implications here. However, as per history showed, German shipbuilding industry could not build ships as fast as the British could and had fallen behind schedule at the outbreak of the Great War. There still would be a period of British superiority of a few years.

I'm not altogether sure that Britain would be forced to pay an indemnity. I really wouldn't be surprised, given the usual bad feelings German foreign affairs raised in Europe, if Germany found itself forced to accept the destruction of its fleet.

 

[Chengar Qordath]

I'm not altogether sure that Britain would be forced to pay an indemnity. I really wouldn't be surprised, given the usual bad feelings German foreign affairs raised in Europe, if Germany found itself forced to accept the destruction of its fleet.

I would say what the German reaction is largely depends on how closely it is directed by the Kaiser, since Wilhelm II was rather bad at all things diplomatic. Still, even if the Wilhelm's usual blustering and blundering happen, I doubt it would end up being a total foreign policy loss for Germany. At the least Britain will have managed to seriously damage their relations with most of the neutral states, even France and Russia will probably not be too happy about an unprovoked attack on the German Navy. If war breaks out in 1908 it's probably going to favor Germany, since Russia will be weaker, and the Entente will be in a much poorer diplomatic position that will make it hard for them to get allies.

 

[Dave Bender]

Ottomans

I wonder what the Ottomans would do? Britain is isolated diplomatically, and at war with Germany. Britain has been steadily encroching on Ottoman territory for a number of years. Major portions of the Berlin-Baghdad railroad are in place. If a decent supply line can be established this could be a chance to drive the encrouching British out of the middle east for good.