Control of Presidency and Congress without Watergate

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Deleted member 145219

We are nearing the 50 year anniversary of the break in of the Democratic headquarters at the Watergate hotel. While it was dismissed as a third rate burglary, it eventually lead to a scandal which toppled the Nixon Presidency. Watergate and Ford's struggles as President brought an end to the Eisenhower/Rockefeller era of the GOP which was largely governing as a minority party during an era of Democratic dominance. On the Democratic side, 1974 saw a massive midterm wave, especially in the House. Most of these new elected Democrats were more liberal and northern, which put them at odd with a lot of the longtime Southern Democrats would held major committee positions. The 1974 midterms quite possibility put the GOP back 20 years on the Congressional and State level, but planted the seeds for the divide between Liberal and Southern Democrats.

Presidential Considerations:

1. Who is Nixon's Vice President without Watergate? Is it still Ford, or is Nixon able to get Connally?
2. How would a primary between Vice President Connally, supported by Nixon and Governor Reagan, supported
by the grassroots go?
3. Who is the Democratic nominee in 1976? What happens if they lose in 1976?

Congressional and State:

1. Democrats narrowly won Senate races in Indiana (Bayh), South Dakota (McGovern), Vermont (Leahy, and Iowa (Culver)
2. Jerry Brown was narrowly elected to the California Governorship in 1974.
3. Without Watergate, Nelson Rockefeller almost certainly doesn't become Vice President. He likely remains Governor and
therefore no Hugh Carey.

Other:

1. To what extent does the New Left and Religious Right gain power and influence in the respective political parties?
2. Does Nixon get his Health Care proposal passed through Congress? Does Ted Kennedy work out an agreement
with Nixon?
3. Is Congress (and the Public) willing to continue support for South Vietnam?
4. Are there investigations into the activities of the Intelligence agencies?
 

Amadeus

A Democrat probably wins the presidency in 1976, but possibly a more traditional Democrat like Mo Udall instead of Carter. The Democrats make gains in 1974, but not to the same extent as OTL.
 

Deleted member 145219

I'm leaning towards the following.

1. Nixon's new Vice President is still Gerald Ford. But his preferred candidate for 1976 is John Connally.
2. Nixon successfully works with Ted Kennedy to pass Nixon Care.
3. Public and Congressional opinion allows for continued aid to South Vietnam.
4. Democrats make decent gains thanks to the poor economy and six year itch, yet the GOP holds Governorships
in New York and California. And wins Senate races in Indiana, South Dakota, Iowa, and Vermont.
5. Nixon addresses the Energy Crisis through achieving Peace in the Middle East. Something he was looking to tackle.
6. Democrats win back the Presidency in 1976, with the GOP having a disastrous primary between Governor Reagan
and Former Governor Connally. While Reagan wins in the nomination, he's soundly defeated in the General Election.
7. Democrats hold the Presidency in 1980 and maybe 1984.
8. Republicans win back the Presidency with a Nixon inspired President. Nixon is not the Republican FDR (as he wanted to be), but
his Presidency and career in Public Service serve as an Inspiration to those on the Conservative side of the political spectrum.
9. Politics take longer to Polarize. Higher trust in public institutions. The New Left and Religious Right may even fizzle out.
10. Democrats lose the House sooner. Maybe 1982 or 1986.
 
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dw93

Through 2000:

1974: Democrats wide a wave to victory on a six year itch, the sour economy and inflation, though the gains aren't as large as OTL.

1976: The Democrats, with a nominee not named Jimmy Carter, narrowly win the Presidency due to a weak recovery from the 73-75 recession and a bitter primary between Ronald Reagan, who narrowly wins the nomination, and one of Former Texas Governor John Connally or Former New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller. Nixon ends his term with modest approval ratings

1978: The GOP gains about as much as OTL

1980: Despite headwinds created in the Middle East by the Iranian revolution and a Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, a Democratic administration and Congress pass greater economic stimulus than the Humphrey Hawkins Bill of OTL as well as Healthcare reform. An increase in Domestic energy production and an investment in the research and development of renewable energy also helps soften the blow of the energy crisis. This, helps the Democratic incumbent, by the skin of their teeth, get re elected.

1982: Thanks to an increase in the interest rates to bring down inflation, the deepest recession since the Great Depression breaks out in late 1981, resulting in the Democrats suffering their worst congressional defeat since 1946, with the GOP gaining majorities in the House and Senate for the first time since 1954.

1984: The Republican nominee narrowly defeats the incumbent Democratic VP. The GOP maintains Control of Congress, giving them control of both the executive and legislative branches at the same time for the first time in three decades. The departing Democratic President, like Nixon before them, exits the Presidency with modest approval ratings.

1986: The Democrats retake the House and Senate, though they do so in more of a ripple than a wave.

1988: Incumbent Republican President is re elected in a landslide.

1990: Six year itch and a waning economy give the Democrats modest gains in both chambers of Congress

1992: Thanks to a weak recovery from recession, the Democratic Presidential Nominee soundly defeats the incumbent Republican VP.

1994: The Republicans recapture the Senate and sweep state and local races in the south. While the GOP makes gains in the House, they come short of retaking the majority in the chamber.

1996: Incumbent Democrat is re elected in a landslide. Despite this, the GOP retains control of the Senate. Democrats keep the House

1998: Republicans narrowly recapture the House, the Senate is a wash, leaving the GOP with the majority.

2000: Incumbent Democratic VP defeats Republican nominee for the Presidency. The Democrats narrowly recapture the House and Senate.


Other:

1. To what extent does the New Left and Religious Right gain power and influence in the respective political parties?:
Without Watergate it takes longer for the new left to materialize. They pop up in the late 80s or early 90s after two Republican wins. As for the Religious Right, I don't think they gain a great deal of influence without both Carter (who first appealed to them in 1976) and Reagan becoming President.
2. Does Nixon get his Health Care proposal passed through Congress? Does Ted Kennedy work out an agreement
with Nixon? I think it's more likely a non Carter Democratic Administration elected in 76 gets health care reform.
3. Is Congress (and the Public) willing to continue support for South Vietnam?
Nope, but Nixon does it anyway because he's, well, Nixon.
4. Are there investigations into the activities of the Intelligence agencies?
Don't know enough to say.
 

SlideAway

I know the CW is that Watergate helped produce Carter, but I'm always been somewhat skeptical that really was a major factor.

I know that Carter's campaign stressed his honesty and outsider status, and that he benefited from disillusionment with Washington. But why would congressional *Democrats* (who, after all, had immensely benefited in 1974 from Watergate) have been the target of primary voter disgust towards Richard Nixon? It's far more plausible to me that Carter's success as an outsider had more to do with the democratization of the primary process and generalized disillusionment with national politics. Something that had much more to do with stagflation, the backlash to the Great Society, and Vietnam than Watergate alone. The same dynamics had allowed George McGovern to seize the nomination four years earlier against the opposition of most party regulars. And it was already leading to proto-New-Dem politicians getting elected downballot, to congressional seats or various governorships. (Such as Jerry Brown 1.0.)

Carter also was the only candidate to really try and compete in all the primary contests. Everyone else tried to work under the old rules, imagining they could make a good showing in a handful of primaries and win at the convention. That strategy had already proven it didn't work in 1972, but Carter's campaign seemed like the only one that learned the lesson. He also benefitted by being a southerner who was acceptable to African-Americans and northern whites. This gave him a strong electoral base in the primaries (which were also winner take all at the time) and were perceived to give him an electability edge in November, given post-LBJ Dem weakness in the south.

For these reasons, I don't actually think it's unlikely that Carter would have been the nominee even absent Watergate. And given the "eight-year itch" and the 1974-1975 recession, he'd have been even odds to win. I wouldn't even rule out his opponent being Ford. Dem opposition to Connally may still have pushed Nixon to appoint Ford instead, though admittedly it may have been easier for Reagan to defeat a VP Ford versus a President Ford.

Honestly, the biggest short-term impact of Watergate on politics would, I think, have been downballot. 1974 may still have been a Democratic year, but I think it's likely to be a much less Democratic year. And without the huge 1974 gains, margins in the House would be tighter and a GOP takeover in the 1980s would have been plausible. (Especially if, as in OTL, Carter or another Dem president in the 1977-1981 period loses reelection -- whether to Reagan or somebody else.) You also might butterfly a number of very influential congressional Democrats' careers over the course of the 80s through 00s.
 
Aisha Clan-Clan

Aisha Clan-Clan

Dixie realigns GOP earlier but realignment more focused on race/crime and less polarized in some ways(GOP keeps getting 15-20% of blacks). More republican presidents, no religious right as we know it.
 
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