Constantinople Survives

othyrsyde

WI: Constantinople Survives

What if somehow the Constantinople could linger on as a city state? How far back would the POD be for something like this to occur? How do you think this would effect Greek Orthodoxy, and even a Greece - assuming of course some independence struggle still occurs and is successful? Where would the Ottoman's capital per alternatively?
 
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Anaxagoras

Banned
If you are assuming a surviving Ottoman Empire more or less as IOTL, then there is obviously no way that Constantinople can survive.
 

Don_Giorgio

othyrsyde said:
How far back would we need a POD?
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Butterfly away the 4th Crusade, Mantzikert and propably Myriokefalon (though if we butterly Mantzikert there wouldnt be Myriokefalon)...

However if Manzikert still occurs in your TL Romanus IV could have won the battle if his rear guard (commanded by Andronikos Doukas) hadnt betrayed him...
 
Cuāuhtemōc

Cuāuhtemōc

Banned
othyrsyde said:
How far back would we need a POD?
Click to expand...

For Constantinople not falling to the Turks and the Byzantines lasting for a much longer time, I say having Stefan Dusan conquer the Romans and become Emperor is a good POD though some people may argue 1402 being the last chance for a Byzantine revival.

For Constantinople to become a city state? It already was. It was called Byzantion. ;)
 

Don_Giorgio

Cuāuhtemōc said:
For Constantinople not falling to the Turks and the Byzantines lasting for a much longer time, I say having Stefan Dusan conquer the Romans and become Emperor is a good POD though some people may argue 1402 being the last chance for a Byzantine revival.

For Constantinople to become a city state? It already was. It was called Byzantion. ;)
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1402 is far too late... Bayazid's defeat only bought 50 years to Constantinople till Ottomans set things straight to their lands...
External help wont be coming to the Byzantines since European monarchs would be busy fighting their own wars so Byzantines have to stand in their own feet in order to deal effectively with Ottomans... So a PoD at least in 1204 is needed...
 

Elfwine

Someone who should have had their post stickied said something wise in another thread, but this is my version:

Prior to and including Manzikert (1071): Fairly easy, in the greater scheme of things.

Up to and including Andronicus I (overthrown 1185): Restoring the state to its pre-Manzikert status as an eventual possibility is entirely possible, with enough luck, hard work, and prudence. Going beyond...first, figure out how you're dealing with the Mongols.

Post-Fourth Crusade (1204): A recovery is hard, but not impossible. It'll probably never be what it once was (which means Basil II, not Justinian I, and certainly not Constantine I), but it isn't yet impossible.

Post-1300: There may be a slim chance of saving the empire, but restoring its lost lands is almost impossible.

Post-1340 or so: Sooner or latter it will fall.

In 1453: The state exists in name only. Saving it is like making Sealion work and needs to be treated accordingly.
 

Don_Giorgio

Elfwine said:
Someone who should have had their post stickied said something wise in another thread, but this is my version:

Prior to and including Manzikert (1071): Fairly easy, in the greater scheme of things.

Up to and including Andronicus I (overthrown 1185): Restoring the state to its pre-Manzikert status as an eventual possibility is entirely possible, with enough luck, hard work, and prudence. Going beyond...first, figure out how you're dealing with the Mongols.

Post-Fourth Crusade (1204): A recovery is hard, but not impossible. It'll probably never be what it once was (which means Basil II, not Justinian I, and certainly not Constantine I), but it isn't yet impossible.

Post-1300: There may be a slim chance of saving the empire, but restoring its lost lands is almost impossible.

Post-1340 or so: Sooner or latter it will fall.

In 1453: The state exists in name only. Saving it is like making Sealion work and needs to be treated accordingly.
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I ll agree to that... But i tend to believe that post 1204 the Byzantines have no real hope if the 4th Crusade isnt butterflied away...
The sack of Constantinople and the division of the Empire's lands shattered the Empire's foundations...
 

Elfwine

Don_Giorgio said:
I ll agree to that... But i tend to believe that post 1204 the Byzantines have no real hope if the 4th Crusade isnt butterflied away...
The sack of Constantinople and the division of the Empire's lands shattered the Empire's foundations...
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Yeah. Nicaea did manage to accomplish a lot towards recovering what had been there, but...

If you really want "a surviving Byzantine Empire", you need something before the Fourth Crusade. That was catastrophic even for a state with a history of surviving catastrophe.
 

Don_Giorgio

Elfwine said:
Yeah. Nicaea did manage to accomplish a lot towards recovering what had been there, but...

If you really want "a surviving Byzantine Empire", you need something before the Fourth Crusade. That was catastrophic even for a state with a history of surviving catastrophe.
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Plus despite the defeat in Manzikert Byzantines had a second chance in Myriokefalon but they blew it too... Either way for the Empire to survive strong needs a PoD in which they get a decicive victory in either Manzikert or Myriokefalon and 4th Crusade never makes it to the Walls of Constantinople...
 

Elfwine

Don_Giorgio said:
Plus despite the defeat in Manzikert Byzantines had a second chance in Myriokefalon but they blew it too... Either way for the Empire to survive strong needs a PoD in which they get a decicive victory in either Manzikert or Myriokefalon and 4th Crusade never makes it to the Walls of Constantinople...
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I'm not as sure on Myriokephalon. Had the state managed to avoid collapse in the twenty years after Manuel's death, it might just be a particularly embarrassing defeat with no long term consequences.

Or conversely, it being won but the state still suffering its OTL issues might amount to little better than OTL.
 

Don_Giorgio

Elfwine said:
I'm not as sure on Myriokephalon. Had the state managed to avoid collapse in the twenty years after Manuel's death, it might just be a particularly embarrassing defeat with no long term consequences.

Or conversely, it being won but the state still suffering its OTL issues might amount to little better than OTL.
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Well then i rephrase... A win in Myriokefalon plus Manuel I lives longer and his scheming cousin Andronicus is removed somehow from the picture... With Manuel I alive and Andronicus out of the equation the Empire wont sink in anarchy after Manuel's death plus his heir Alexios II would be an adult capable of ruling by himself...
 

Elfwine

Don_Giorgio said:
Well then i rephrase... A win in Myriokefalon plus Manuel I lives longer and his scheming cousin Andronicus is removed somehow from the picture... With Manuel I alive and Andronicus out of the equation the Empire wont sink in anarchy after Manuel's death plus his heir Alexios II would be an adult capable of ruling by himself...
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Agreed. Andronicus might not be the worst of all possible things, though.

Better a mad Komnenoi emperor than the Angeloi, which ranged from ineffective (Isaac II) to...

Well, Alexius III should have been flayed alive for what he did to the state. :mad: His brother at least tried.

So yeah, a win at Myriokephalon and the state having capable, secure leadership for another generation until it recovers from Manuel's overextension would make all the difference.

Alexius II, Andronicus I, a somewhat more capable Isaac II...someone. Anyone better than what it got OTL.
 

Qwrkd

I dunno guys, Constantinople was pretty good at surviving sieges. Any reasonable person would have just given up and captured the lands around it, it's only the persistent bloody-mindedness of the Ottoman emperor that allowed the city to be breached. Possible PoDs:


  • Ottomans are not warned of the Golden Horn attack
  • Cannon failure gives enough time to rebuild the NW wall properly
  • Giovanni Giustiniani avoids being wounded, rallys troops to push out Janissaries.
  • The emperor listens to Halil Pasha, and decides to abandon the seige due to heavy losses
The fall of Constantinople was by no means a certainty. The fall of the Byzantine empire yes, guaranteed at this point, but Constantinople was a tough nut to crack.
 

Don_Giorgio

Qwrkd said:
I dunno guys, Constantinople was pretty good at surviving sieges. Any reasonable person would have just given up and captured the lands around it, it's only the persistent bloody-mindedness of the Ottoman emperor that allowed the city to be breached. Possible PoDs:


  • Ottomans are not warned of the Golden Horn attack
  • Cannon failure gives enough time to rebuild the NW wall properly
  • Giovanni Giustiniani avoids being wounded, rallys troops to push out Janissaries.
  • The emperor listens to Halil Pasha, and decides to abandon the seige due to heavy losses
The fall of Constantinople was by no means a certainty. The fall of the Byzantine empire yes, guaranteed at this point, but Constantinople was a tough nut to crack.
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Even so Constantinople didnt had the manpower to stand a siege ad Mehmed had cannons which turned the huge city walls to dust... So not a chance of surviving... As i ve said in another thread even Mehmed's death cant save the city... only buy her a few time more...
 
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