Consequences of a Failed SEALION

[Kung Fucious]

Right off the bat, SEALION/Seelowe is doomed to failure, despite the occasional argument that it's possible.

Instead, what would the consequences of the Reich actually launching SEALION and it failing, for all the reasons we (and others) have laid out over the years? Let's assume that, in a fit of pique, Hitler decides to give SEALION the go-ahead, and events shake out similar to the 1974 wargame: the Wehrmacht manages to get a few divisions ashore, but despite lengthy fighting the invasion is eventually thwarted and the remaining troops are either evacuated or surrender.

How does this affect the war? Does this delay (or even butterfly) Barbarossa? What effect, if any, does this have on the entry of the US?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I suspect complete and total loss of the First wave (unlikely to be a secondary one) as well as heavy losses among the vessels and barges being used for the invasion

I expect that whats left of the operational German Surface fleet would very likely be lost - mind you we are looking at only a relative handful of ships ready at the time - Both S and G plus the 2 Panzerschiffe were not available (being repaired or refitted) and only 4 odd Crusiers + about 6 Fleet destroyers were fit for action - Norway had cost the German fleet dear.

In most discussions Sea Lion proponents seem to answer most of the issues and short comings facing the German's attempt at making a successful landing with 'The Luftwaffe will do it'

So very heavy losses through all causes for the LW!

Both the RN and the RAF will suffer of course as the desperately throw themselves into the fight - however they do have many advantages denied their opponents in this scenario - and the Home Fleet (arguably the whole Navy) and RAF Fighter command had only one real proper day job!

How does this impact Barbarossa? Loss of the actual troops which would very likely include some of their best troops (Fallschirmjagers, Mountain troops etc) would undoubtedly have an impact on the Heer it has to be said that 90,000 troops being lost while a lot is still not a knockout blow.

What would be keenly felt is the losses experienced by the LW particularly among its Transport Pilots who at the time included a large number of the LWs instructors seriously impacting its ability to replace its losses and the Dive bomber units who would have to conduct multiple sorties in an effort to make up for the lack of heavy artillery.

Loss of river barges is however going to cause issues for a few years at least - particularly in occupied Europe as Germany would take what it needed to replace its own loses - so some disruption to German industry reliant on River traffic (Coal etc) and greater disruption and hardship to Occupied Europe vs OTL.

So I think Barbarossa is going to be impacted slightly - the ability for the Germans to also get involved in Crete and North Africa are going to be much reduced. Crete would probably not be successfully invaded as the Fjs would still be rebuilding and the transport Wings / crews unlikely to have recovered.

As for the US - everything hinges around the Nov 1940 elections - Sealion does not change this although the sudden fear of Britain being occupied might force their hand - but realistically by the time a decision was reached and efforts started to move additional supplies or even 'assets' to Britain I can see the situation in Britain becoming much clearer and the USA backing down from the need of declaring outright war. I would imagine that Edward Munroe Giving a blow by blow account of the failing German attack however would only make the US more willing to help Britain.

 

[zert]

I agree that any operations against Russia will be impacted. I will also wonder if Germany would be able to assist Italy with any actions in the Balkans.

 

[Ian_W]

Crete would probably not be successfully invaded as the Fjs would still be rebuilding and the transport Wings / crews unlikely to have recovered.

This is bigger than it sounds, because the Ploesti oilfields are well within range of British bombers, if they are operating from Crete.

This puts the Reich under heavier fuel pressure, faster.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

This is bigger than it sounds, because the Ploesti oilfields are well within range of British bombers, if they are operating from Crete.

This puts the Reich under heavier fuel pressure, faster.

Certainly not right away but it does allow Medium bombers to reach the field much earlier than heavy bombers did OTL and gives more options etc

 

[Minty_Fresh]

Well obviously the Paratrooper Force is depleted perhaps beyond future salvage. I don't see really any of those guys not ending up dead or captured. This makes the Crete invasion trickier and perhaps less costly if somehow the Germans can take the island without them.

The loss of a substantial portion of the Luftwaffe, who would kill themselves trying to support the invasion force without superiority over England, would make future air operations over the next two years less unanimously successful, as the pilot quality would likely decrease.

The Kreigsmarine would go from insignificant as a surface force to almost nonexistent in the Channel theatre for the future.

The loss of the infantry divisions pegged for the assault probably would not hurt that much until its time to invade Russia, but the truth is that the evolution of the German Army from 1940 to 1941 was so substantial that I think it might not mean all that much at all. The Panzer landings would be impossible and probably abandoned.

Hitler's confidence would be shaken. Perhaps that makes him more rational in the future, but hey, who are we kidding. He probably goes full batshit maybe a few months or a year earlier than OTL.

 

[Michel Van]

In my TL essay "Operation Sealion Disaster"
The Nazi lost all there Paratrooper Force and all big cargo Aircraft like Me 323.
The Luftwaffe had much higher loss as during the Blitz
The Navy lost there Battleships Bismarck, Tirpitz, Scharnhorst and Gneisenau
From 67000 german soldiers only 10000 soldiers survived and are Pow

Hitler furious screaming order that Großadmiral Erich Raeder, Reichsmarschall Göring are to be executed...

 

[Some Bloke]

Seeing as most of the troops and materiel were to be transported in river barges,
expect logistical problems in German industry afterwards.

Seeing the British face the German invasion and win will gain support
from the US.

Naval losses including U boats allow the RN greater freedom of action
as well as an ease on Britain's own supply lines.

 

[Some Bloke]

Dad's Army will also be grimmer and darker, plus, Hitler's rant will probably
be in a film called "They fought on the beaches."

 

[Cryhavoc101]

In my TL essay "Operation Sealion Disaster"
The Nazi lost all there Paratrooper Force and all big cargo Aircraft like Me 323.
The Luftwaffe had much higher loss as during the Blitz
The Navy lost there Battleships Bismarck, Tirpitz, Scharnhorst and Gneisenau
From 67000 german soldiers only 10000 soldiers survived and are Pow

Hitler furious screaming order that Großadmiral Erich Raeder, Reichsmarschall Göring are to be executed...

Just a few notes:

None of the German capital ships were available for Sealion

Bismarck was not ready for ops before earliest January 1941 (she did not actually test fire her guns before Nov 1941)

Tirpitz was not ready for ops before absolute earliest June 1941 when she formed the nucleus of a surface force in the Baltic to face the Russian Navy if it sortied from St Petersburg/Leningrad during Op Barbarossa - she continued training /working up after this fleet was stood down.

The Twins has both been damaged during the Norway campaign and would not be ready for service before Oct (Scharnhorst) and Nov (Guisenau)

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

In my TL essay "Operation Sealion Disaster"
The Nazi lost all there Paratrooper Force and all big cargo Aircraft like Me 323.
The Luftwaffe had much higher loss as during the Blitz
The Navy lost there Battleships Bismarck, Tirpitz, Scharnhorst and Gneisenau
From 67000 german soldiers only 10000 soldiers survived and are Pow

Hitler furious screaming order that Großadmiral Erich Raeder, Reichsmarschall Göring are to be executed...

I know you wrote big cargo aircraft "like" the Me 323, but did they actually have it then?

I think the Luftwaffe would probably have a much lower loss rate during the Blitz because it would have fewer bombers to employ due to the losses sustained in Sealion.

As others have pointed out Scharnhorst and Gneisenau weren't operational between Operational Juno and Operation Berlin because they were being repaired. And also as others have stated Bismarck and Tirpitz were still under construction. However, as both ships took a year longer than planned to build is your essay one where they were completed on time?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The amphibious mammal that must not be named would have been a disaster for the Germans, but I doubt that it would have been a turkey shoot for the British. The RAF and RN are going to suffer losses which I think are likely to be heavy enough to stop them doing some of the things they did in the Mediterranean in 1941.

E.g. the Royal Navy lost ships in Norway and Dunkirk to the Luftwaffe. IOTL it would suffer more losses to the Luftwaffe off Malta in January 1941 and Crete. This is in spite of the Luftwaffe being without an effective anti-ship torpedo until 1942. In Sealion the RN would have Fighter Command providing it with a fighter screen, but in spite of that I think its reasonable to expect losses heavier than those it suffered in the Mediterranean to the end of 1941.

IIRC the number of operational destroyers in June 1940 was down to about 100 after Dunkirk with about another 60 under repair. IIRC the operational ships were split between the Home Fleet, English Channel, Force H and the Mediterranean Fleet roughly 40:30:10:20 leaving nothing for the North Atlantic, which was one of the reasons for the U-boats First Happy Time. If Sealion happens more destroyers are going to be sunk in the second half of 1940 ITTL than IOTL and more are going to need repairing too. Therefore the RN is going to be weaker in the Mediterranean and North Atlantic. So there might have been no German paratroops to take Crete, but the planned amphibious landing got through because there were no British cruisers and destroyers available to sink the convoy, which is what happened IOTL.

But the Kriegsmarine's surface fleet is going to be just as strong in the aftermath of a failed Sealion because all but one of the big ships (i.e. the Hipper) would not have taken part in the disaster because they were either still under construction or under repair. Therefore the RN might have to weaken Force H and the Mediterranean Fleet to replace ships in the Home Fleet and North Atlantic sunk during Sealion ITTL.

The Allies would still win the war, but unless the Royal Navy came out of Operation Sealion unscathed (which is highly unlikely) I think the sea war and the war in the Mediterranean would have gone worse for the British than it did until the end of 1941 IOTL in this timeline.

 

[Ian_W]

The Allies would still win the war, but unless the Royal Navy came out of Operation Sealion unscathed (which is highly unlikely) I think the sea war and the war in the Mediterranean would have gone worse for the British than it did until the end of 1941 IOTL in this timeline.

Generally agreed, but holding Crete is huge. Basically, they get a spare Malta to go with their Malta.

 

[King Augeas]

Plus the spare Malta makes it a lot easier to resupply the real Malta. Crete is closer to Malta than where the Club Runs flew off fighters, so it should be possible, prevailing winds permitting, to fly in reinforcements as needed.

Whether Crete goes ahead is an interesting one. The Germans are going to be very wary of paratroops and amphibious landings, but the losses in the Channel will, as noted, reduce RN strength. If Germany cancels Barbarossa in 1941 because of the economic dislocation from barge losses etc, then they'll e under pressure to do something in 1941 and there doesn't seem to be many options really.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Generally agreed, but holding Crete is huge. Basically, they get a spare Malta to go with their Malta.

But if Sealion is attempted the RAF suffers heavier losses which means no or much reduced air reinforcements to the Middle East. Ditto or the British Army. The home air and land defences have to be maintained at OTL levels to deter Hitler for having another go in 1941 instead of invading Russia. Therefore there might not be:

• enough Army and/or RAF resources for O'Connor to mount his offensive into Libya or it doesn't penetrate as far for lack of resources;
• a W Force to send to Greece, which might be a good thing because it lost all its equipment and IIRC 10,000 men became prisoners;
• any RAF squadrons to form RAF Greece from, with would deprive the Greeks of much of their air cover before the Germans invaded;
• any fighters to send to Malta or anti-aircraft guns or infantry for that matter. Plus the Royal Navy might not have any ships available to cover convoys to sustain the forces on Malta before Sea Lion and the British might be forced to abandon the island. Plus;
• it would be harder for the British to put down the Iraqi revolt, occupy Syria and it might take longer to defeat the Italians in East Africa.

Not having the Ju52s and paratroops makes an airborne assault on Crete impossible. However, the Germans also tried an amphibious landing, but a force of British cruisers and destroyers sank the convoy, although the soldiers did not drown in vain because Freyberg had to divert some of his troops to the coast in case the convoy got through. What if there weren't any British cruisers available to sink the convoy? Therefore I think there is a good chance that Crete would still have been taken ITTL, but it would have been done by different means. There is also the possibility ITTL that the British won't attempt to defend it in the first place.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Plus the spare Malta makes it a lot easier to resupply the real Malta. Crete is closer to Malta than where the Club Runs flew off fighters, so it should be possible, prevailing winds permitting, to fly in reinforcements as needed.

Agreed, but even if it had been held IOTL the warships and merchant ships needed to get the supplies there had to come from somewhere and the Royal Navy was overstretched in the second half of 1941 as it was. Though I admit that they could possibly have combined resupplying Crete with the convoys to Malta and Tobruk that sailed from Alexandria.

Crete also needed a land and air defence. The Greek and BEC soldiers lost in the OTL invasion probably suffice for the former, but where would the fighter squadrons come from? The RAF would have to weaken its fighter forces somewhere else.

Having said that holding Crete would was better for the British than loosing it. For one thing it would have made the eastern passage to Malta safer.

 

[MattII]

But if Sealion is attempted the RAF suffers heavier losses which means no or much reduced air reinforcements to the Middle East. Ditto or the British Army. The home air and land defences have to be maintained at OTL levels to deter Hitler for having another go in 1941 instead of invading Russia.

No they don't, they just have to be less damaged and quicker to rebuild than the Luftwaffe, which given the British training scheme they would be. Seriously, the Luftwaffe will be heavily overtaxed, not only having to try to suppress the RAF, but also act as artillery for the troops on the ground, and attempt to keep the RN at bay. Except that they couldn't quite even do the first thing, their chances of pulling off all three together are exactly nil, and trying will result in their absolute destruction.

Also, both side may have taken losses to their forces (the Luftwaffe more than the RAF, the RN more so than the KM), but Germany has taken a not insignificant hit to its economy too, hurting its ability to rearm.

 

[misterwibble]

Crete doesn't need that many fighters because as has already been mentioned a failed Sealion means that the Luftwaffe is fucked. Heavy fighter and bomber losses and they've lost a lot/most of their flying school instructors

 

[Major Major]

Crete doesn't need that many fighters because as has already been mentioned a failed Sealion means that the Luftwaffe is fucked. Heavy fighter and bomber losses and they've lost a lot/most of their flying school instructors

Crete is a non-starter in this TL. Where are they going to get the transports and the transport pilots? As I recall, the airborne drops would use all the trainers. As the other Austrian said, Hasta la vista, babee.

 

[Roland Traveler]

Could Hitler have somehow dragged Mussolini into it by pushing for a capture of Gibraltar so part of the Italian fleet could take part? Really, we should challenge ourselves on screwing the Axis harder right now.