Consequence of a French monarchy after 1871 on monarchism in Europe and post WW2 (west) Germany

[Opunium]

So, after the Franco-Prussian war Napoleon III abdicated and the Third Republic was founded. In the Third Republic's general assembly there was a majority in favour of crowning Henri, Count of Chambord, as king. He however despised the tricolor and wouldn't become king if France retained it. Thus everyone settled on the republic. However, what if they didn't? Let's say Henri is more pragmatic and accepts the flag, or dies early before 1871 and the much more liberal Orleanist line becomes the main line and Philippe of Orléans, Count of Paris is crowned king in 1871.

This will have a profound influence on politics in Europe. The only major European power that has been a successful republic has now once again settled on a monarchy. If we place a limited butterfly net on Europe prior to WW1 only Portugal would become a republic in 1910. Yet would that happen without France as example? Post World War 1 Germany would be a major country, as republic. But plagued by instability. Would Eastern European nations settle quicker on a monarchy? Will the Habsburgs come to power in Hungary? Would Poland decide to crown a Saxon as king, or maybe Pilsudski as king? Mannerheim as king of Finland?

And my main question is about post WW2. Let's say it goes mostly OTL. We got democratic monarchies fighting republics that gave power to dictators. With the cold war on the horizon it is no better in the east. The UK and Kingdom of France decide that Germany needs to be a monarchy s well. Not Hohenzollern, but maybe led by the house of Hannover? Influenced by the mediaval Kingdom of Germany, east Francia, that was also mainly based in the territory of west Germany. How would they denazify, de-Prussia-fy and reconstruct such a Germany?

 

[Food-Oh_Koon]

Not Hohenzollern, but maybe led by the house of Hanover?

Not likely. If we see a monarchy in Germany, it'd probably be the Hohenzollern. Wittelsbachs are a bit unlikely, but still possible house too. Habsburgs in Hungary, probably a German Austria, monarchist Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania(after the fall of communism), Greece and Italy could be "encouraged" to stay monarchies and as you mentioned,Portugal's republicanism is retconned.

Mannerheim as the king? Not an unheard idea. But I don't know much about that.

Also, if everything goes like OTL, Poland will not be a Pilsudski monarchy, maybe Wettins might be seen as too pro-German after what happened in WW2. Some local noble family that had some legitimate connection to the crown may rise.

There are a lot of possiblities but the POD causes so many butterflies that it's difficult to speculate what happens

 

[kasumigenx]

Not likely. If we see a monarchy in Germany, it'd probably be the Hohenzollern. Wittelsbachs are a bit unlikely, but still possible house too. Habsburgs in Hungary, probably a German Austria, monarchist Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania(after the fall of communism), Greece and Italy could be "encouraged" to stay monarchies and as you mentioned,Portugal's republicanism is retconned.

Mannerheim as the king? Not an unheard idea. But I don't know much about that.

Also, if everything goes like OTL, Poland will not be a Pilsudski monarchy, maybe Wettins might be seen as too pro-German after what happened in WW2. Some local noble family that had some legitimate connection to the crown may rise.

There are a lot of possiblities but the POD causes so many butterflies that it's difficult to speculate what happens

Actually, the Olesnica Welfs are a possibility.

 

[Food-Oh_Koon]

Olesnica Welfs

Olesnica welfs? Aren't they the same Welfs like that of Brunswick? Were they considered OTL?

 

[Falecius]

IOTL, basically all Axis powers (including several of their puppet states) of any note except Germany itself (quite the important exception admittedly) and Finland (which was in many senses a very odd Axis member) either were monarchies (Italy, Japan, Thailand, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and technically also Hungary) or had the support of a significant Monarchist faction (Slovakia I think, Vichy France if you count it as Axis). Franco's Falangist coalition had huge Monarchist support and was heavily assisisted by the Axis. Accepting that a Monarchist France after 1871 allows for a Russian Revolution, the anti-monarchical credential of the Allies who include the US, the Soviet Union and possibly a Chinese Republican regime would be as strong if not stronger than the opposing side. Of course, a lot would depend of what happens to France ITTL: would the Monarchy agree to lead an alt-Vichy, similar to the Belgian one IOTL, or flee to lead the fight from the colonies (which would destroy the legitimacy of any collaborationist regime in the Metropole). I am assuming World Wars as similar to OTL for the sake of the scenario, ofc.

 

[The_Last_Plantagenet]

Actually, the Olesnica Welfs are a possibility.

Olesnica welfs? Aren't they the same Welfs like that of Brunswick? Were they considered OTL?

And regardless, the Dukes of Brunswick and Olesnica died out in 1884, and Brunswick passed to the Hanoverian Line while Olesnica was annexed into Prussia.

 

[kasumigenx]

And regardless, the Dukes of Brunswick and Olesnica died out in 1884, and Brunswick passed to the Hanoverian Line while Olesnica was annexed into Prussia.

Actually one of the younger sons of Queen Victoria far removed from succession can rule Poland...as an alternative

 

[The_Last_Plantagenet]

Actually one of the younger sons of Queen Victoria far removed from succession can rule Poland...as an alternative

Kinda, but not really. Given the fact they were the house of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, a Protestant branch of the Wettin, not the Welf branches; Hanoverians or Brunswick.
An option could be the Descendants of Ernest Augustus, who were the welf line, or if the Polish are awkward about religion, there is the Welf parent-house; the Este.

 

[krieger]

Kinda, but not really. Given the fact they were the house of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, a Protestant branch of the Wettin, not the Welf branches; Hanoverians or Brunswick.
An option could be the Descendants of Ernest Augustus, who were the welf line, or if the Polish are awkward about religion, there is the Welf parent-house; the Este.

Or given the fact that Polish elites were very Francophile, they could invite a Bourbon to Polish throne, maybe Bohemians could take Bourbon too (Karel Kramar envisioned independent Bohemia as a monarchy), maybe if French are more conservative ITTL they could pressure Poland, Bohemia and Slovakia in uniting into Zapadoslavia.

 

[The_Last_Plantagenet]

Or given the fact that Polish elites were very Francophile, they could invite a Bourbon to Polish throne, maybe Bohemians could take Bourbon too (Karel Kramar envisioned independent Bohemia as a monarchy), maybe if French are more conservative ITTL they could pressure Poland, Bohemia and Slovakia in uniting into Zapadoslavia.

If I remember correctly, a Prince of Condé or the cadet Branch; Conti, was once considered as a potential king of Poland, so if the Bourbon-Condé survive longer, perhaps their familial head could be considered for such a “Bohemo-Polish Union”

 

[krieger]

If I remember correctly, a Prince of Condé or the cadet Branch; Conti, was once considered as a potential king of Poland, so if the Bourbon-Condé survive longer, perhaps their familial head could be considered for such a “Bohemo-Polish Union”

Bourbon Conde were extinct already at the POD.

 

[The_Last_Plantagenet]

Bourbon Conde were extinct already at the POD.

That is most upsetting. They were one of the Funnier Bourbon Branches.